GameHunter
Pretty much a regular
Here is an overview of Friday’s card of Breeders Cup Races. I list the top contenders and they are in order of my preferences.
JUVENILE TURF SPRINT
RACE 5
Could be the toughest race to come up with a winner on the two-day BC Card.
#2 SOLDIER’S CALL – Looks like the best of the Europeans with 4 wins in his 7 races. In most recent start, he made a great showing of himself against older company in the Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp in France where he was prominent throughout and finished 3rd missing by a head in a 16 horse field. Solid sheet figures but must overcome that this is his 8th race in 6th months and 4th in the last two. Adds Lasix.
#5 BULLETIN – Comes off a blowout win at Gulfstream with a strong sheet number. Brown seemed focused on getting him to this race. Strong workout tab making his 2nd career start off 5 week rest.
#4 STILLWATER COVE – Live bomb. I usually don’t like the girls against the boys, but her sheet number two back is eye popping and the best single race sheet number in this field. Comes off 7 weeks rest and cutting back in distance.
#8 SERGEI PROKOFIEV – Expensive horse when purchased as a yearling ($1,100,000) with high expectations. This is his 8th start of the year and has just 3 weeks rest. Adds Lasix but must overcome fact that this is his 3rd race in five weeks and he ships to the US. Has won 3 of seven races and has one of the best turf jockeys in the world in Ryan Moore.
#3 WELL DONE FOX – Another solid European. Heavily raced, making his 10th start in just over 6 months and comes in off just 3 weeks rest and long travel. Has three wins and three 2nd place finishes in his 9 races. Has been beaten by #2 (Soldier’s Call) twice already.
#12 POCKET DYNAMO – European was beaten by several of these in last (#8 and #3) but completely lacked room throughout. Two wins and two seconds in 6 career races. Must overcome tough post assignment here.
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
RACE 6
#6 NEWSPAPEROFRECORD – This race is typically dominated by Europeans but her two win were scintillating and her sheet numbers are heads above anyone else in here. Both races came on yielding turf courses, which should be the same conditions today. Looks like a superstar for Chad Brown. Very few have a shot here at top honors and she should be the heavy favorite and probably is the most likely winner of any of the BC Races.
#4 JUST WONDERFUL – 3 for 6 overseas and has won at this distance and has already won two graded stakes. Has good mid-pack tactical speed and solid sheet numbers. Adds Lasix.
#1 CONCRETE ROSE – 2 for 2 so far winning at 5 ½ furlongs and 1 1/16th miles. Cuts back slightly in distance here. Has shown versatility in using her tactical speed for good early position in winning the weak G2 Jessamine and closed stoutly from back of the pack at Saratoga in winning her maiden performance. Drew very well but just three weeks’ rest is a slight concern.
#13 MY GAL BETTY – Has paired two nice efforts in a row in Canada and is improving. Has hit the board in all 4 starts but this is a very difficult post position although she does have some early tactical speed. Could hit board but can’t see her winning from out here.
#14 EAST – European is 2 for 2 and adds Lasix. Improved nicely in 2nd start off just 11 days’ rest. Would have ranked her much higher had she not drawn the horrendous post. Another that could hit the ticket but tough to see wining from this post.
#8 BELLE LAURA – Flat out closer from back of the pack that could hit the ticket. Sheet numbers are a bit slow to contend for top honors.
JUVENILE FILLIES
RACE 7
#10 BELLAFINA – Pricey yearling ($800,000) meant to be a great one. Validated things in her second start winning the G2 Sorrento at Delmar with an outstanding figure. Came back in the G1 Delmar Debutante at Delmar a month later with a wicked display of early speed going 44:3 to the half and bottomed out the field posting a much lower figure. Removed the blinkers and added Lasix stretching out in the G1 Chandelier and won easily despite drifting in during stretch run. Ships in from California and drew a tough post position; but if Prat can steer her clear, she is the one to beat.
#7 JAWWALK – Has rattled of three straight wins at three different tacks for low profile trainer John Servis. Won the G1 Frizette at Belmont in her last going wire-to-wire. Going two turns for the first time and short rest.
#2 SERENGETI EMPRESS – Struggled in the G3 Schuylerville at Saratoga Won and came back in her last two winning by an eye-popping combined 33 lengths in total’ including a win in the G2 Pocohontas here at Churchill last out by 19.5 lengths. Has the second fastest single race sheet number in this field so hard to discount her but this is a step up in competition.
#4 RESTLESS RIDER - won her first two starts, including a minor sprint over this course before a planned two-month break for trainer Ken McPeek. Had a wide trip finishing 2nd in the G1 Spinaway at Saratoga with a much lower speed figure from post 11. Stretched out at Keeneland winning the G1 Alcibiades racing just off the early pace, while adding Lasix for the first time. Sheet numbers are a notch below the top here but is a contender that easily could hit the ticket.
#8 SIPPICAN HARBOR - finished off the board in her debut on the turf at this distance at Saratoga before breaking her maiden by 17 lengths in a race moved off-the-turf because of weather Won the G1 Spinaway at Saratoga closing from far back by a drawing away by two lengths. Contessa barn is hot right now but her sheet numbers are a bit below the top ones here and she took some time off since early September missing some major preps. If there’s a speed duel, her closing style fits.
JUVENILE TURF
RACE 8
Wide open race
#2 UNCLE BENNY - 2 for 2. Broke his maiden on dirt near the front end at Monmouth then stormed home from far back going 8-wide to win the Futurity in his turf debut at Belmont. This will be his first start around two turns. Bred for grass and distance and drew very well in here.
#5 LINE OF DUTY - Finished second in his first two sprints before winning at a mile and then again in the G3 Prix de Conde going nine furlongs for Godolphin. Steadily improving as distance has been added and has tactical speed to find good position early. Sheet numbers are a bit slower than the top ones but is showing improvement.
#3 MUCH BETTER - Broke his maiden at first asking on the dirt before making the lead in the stretch of the Zuma Beach then tiring to second. Improved first time on turf. Has good early speed to find early position and avoid trouble and should improve second try on turf.
#14 ANTHONY VAN DYCK – The horse to beat but drew very poorly on the outside. Rattled off three in a row after losing his debut before finishing second and third, respectively in the G1 Vincent O’Brien National and G1 Dewhurst in his last pair. He broke his maiden in his lone try at a mile. Gradually improving and sheet numbers are impressive. Should like the distance.
#8 OPRY - Broke his maiden second out in the G3 With Anticipation at Saratoga before failing in the Pilgrim where he settled for fourth as the 8-5 chalk after moving too soon. Needs to be more patient here but should not be overlooked.
#4 FORTY UNDER Struggled in his debut on dirt but won his last two since switching to turf. After breaking his maiden at the Spa, he closed nicely to take down the G3 Pilgrim at Belmont over yielding ground most recently. Both races on turf were at over a mile.
#7 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN - rolled in his second start to win a New York-bred maiden race at Saratoga before finishing second in both the With Anticipation and Pilgrim. Maker brings his young horses along slowly so this one should improve again.
JUVENILE
RACE 9
#9 GAME WINNER - Undefeated in three starts for trainer Bob Baffert. After breaking his maiden at Del Mar by nearly six lengths on the front end, Game Winner came from off the pace to win the G1 Futurity at Delmar. Stretched out to this distance last out, he handled the two turns with ease after dueling through sensible fractions on the lead to win the G1 American Pharoah by over four lengths. Has a tendency to run wide and outside so is vulnerable but is the most likely winner.
#6 COMPLEXITY - Broke his maiden on closing day at Saratoga with one of the most impressive juvenile performances of the meet when he overcame a slow start to make the lead and win by over four lengths from the rail. Chad Brown stepped him up in class for the G1 Champagne last out at Belmont. He fired out, established a clear lead through fast early fractions and coasted home through the stretch, a three-length winner. Bred as more of a sprinter so two turns here is a question. The top two horses in here will be tough to beat.
#8 STANDARD DEVIATION – Chad Brown’s “other horse” in here. He broke his maiden on an off-the-turf race going seven furlongs at Saratoga in his debut and then overcame a slow start and made up a bunch of ground finishing 3rd in the Breeders’ Futurity from post 13. Will be closing hard and has a puncher’s chance.
#5 WELL DEFINED - Coasted home to win at this distance last out in a Florida Stallion Stakes race at Gulfstream and has won two of his four starts. This is a step up in class and he doesn’t look fast enough to beat the top two but could hit the ticket.
JUVENILE TURF SPRINT
RACE 5
Could be the toughest race to come up with a winner on the two-day BC Card.
#2 SOLDIER’S CALL – Looks like the best of the Europeans with 4 wins in his 7 races. In most recent start, he made a great showing of himself against older company in the Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp in France where he was prominent throughout and finished 3rd missing by a head in a 16 horse field. Solid sheet figures but must overcome that this is his 8th race in 6th months and 4th in the last two. Adds Lasix.
#5 BULLETIN – Comes off a blowout win at Gulfstream with a strong sheet number. Brown seemed focused on getting him to this race. Strong workout tab making his 2nd career start off 5 week rest.
#4 STILLWATER COVE – Live bomb. I usually don’t like the girls against the boys, but her sheet number two back is eye popping and the best single race sheet number in this field. Comes off 7 weeks rest and cutting back in distance.
#8 SERGEI PROKOFIEV – Expensive horse when purchased as a yearling ($1,100,000) with high expectations. This is his 8th start of the year and has just 3 weeks rest. Adds Lasix but must overcome fact that this is his 3rd race in five weeks and he ships to the US. Has won 3 of seven races and has one of the best turf jockeys in the world in Ryan Moore.
#3 WELL DONE FOX – Another solid European. Heavily raced, making his 10th start in just over 6 months and comes in off just 3 weeks rest and long travel. Has three wins and three 2nd place finishes in his 9 races. Has been beaten by #2 (Soldier’s Call) twice already.
#12 POCKET DYNAMO – European was beaten by several of these in last (#8 and #3) but completely lacked room throughout. Two wins and two seconds in 6 career races. Must overcome tough post assignment here.
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
RACE 6
#6 NEWSPAPEROFRECORD – This race is typically dominated by Europeans but her two win were scintillating and her sheet numbers are heads above anyone else in here. Both races came on yielding turf courses, which should be the same conditions today. Looks like a superstar for Chad Brown. Very few have a shot here at top honors and she should be the heavy favorite and probably is the most likely winner of any of the BC Races.
#4 JUST WONDERFUL – 3 for 6 overseas and has won at this distance and has already won two graded stakes. Has good mid-pack tactical speed and solid sheet numbers. Adds Lasix.
#1 CONCRETE ROSE – 2 for 2 so far winning at 5 ½ furlongs and 1 1/16th miles. Cuts back slightly in distance here. Has shown versatility in using her tactical speed for good early position in winning the weak G2 Jessamine and closed stoutly from back of the pack at Saratoga in winning her maiden performance. Drew very well but just three weeks’ rest is a slight concern.
#13 MY GAL BETTY – Has paired two nice efforts in a row in Canada and is improving. Has hit the board in all 4 starts but this is a very difficult post position although she does have some early tactical speed. Could hit board but can’t see her winning from out here.
#14 EAST – European is 2 for 2 and adds Lasix. Improved nicely in 2nd start off just 11 days’ rest. Would have ranked her much higher had she not drawn the horrendous post. Another that could hit the ticket but tough to see wining from this post.
#8 BELLE LAURA – Flat out closer from back of the pack that could hit the ticket. Sheet numbers are a bit slow to contend for top honors.
JUVENILE FILLIES
RACE 7
#10 BELLAFINA – Pricey yearling ($800,000) meant to be a great one. Validated things in her second start winning the G2 Sorrento at Delmar with an outstanding figure. Came back in the G1 Delmar Debutante at Delmar a month later with a wicked display of early speed going 44:3 to the half and bottomed out the field posting a much lower figure. Removed the blinkers and added Lasix stretching out in the G1 Chandelier and won easily despite drifting in during stretch run. Ships in from California and drew a tough post position; but if Prat can steer her clear, she is the one to beat.
#7 JAWWALK – Has rattled of three straight wins at three different tacks for low profile trainer John Servis. Won the G1 Frizette at Belmont in her last going wire-to-wire. Going two turns for the first time and short rest.
#2 SERENGETI EMPRESS – Struggled in the G3 Schuylerville at Saratoga Won and came back in her last two winning by an eye-popping combined 33 lengths in total’ including a win in the G2 Pocohontas here at Churchill last out by 19.5 lengths. Has the second fastest single race sheet number in this field so hard to discount her but this is a step up in competition.
#4 RESTLESS RIDER - won her first two starts, including a minor sprint over this course before a planned two-month break for trainer Ken McPeek. Had a wide trip finishing 2nd in the G1 Spinaway at Saratoga with a much lower speed figure from post 11. Stretched out at Keeneland winning the G1 Alcibiades racing just off the early pace, while adding Lasix for the first time. Sheet numbers are a notch below the top here but is a contender that easily could hit the ticket.
#8 SIPPICAN HARBOR - finished off the board in her debut on the turf at this distance at Saratoga before breaking her maiden by 17 lengths in a race moved off-the-turf because of weather Won the G1 Spinaway at Saratoga closing from far back by a drawing away by two lengths. Contessa barn is hot right now but her sheet numbers are a bit below the top ones here and she took some time off since early September missing some major preps. If there’s a speed duel, her closing style fits.
JUVENILE TURF
RACE 8
Wide open race
#2 UNCLE BENNY - 2 for 2. Broke his maiden on dirt near the front end at Monmouth then stormed home from far back going 8-wide to win the Futurity in his turf debut at Belmont. This will be his first start around two turns. Bred for grass and distance and drew very well in here.
#5 LINE OF DUTY - Finished second in his first two sprints before winning at a mile and then again in the G3 Prix de Conde going nine furlongs for Godolphin. Steadily improving as distance has been added and has tactical speed to find good position early. Sheet numbers are a bit slower than the top ones but is showing improvement.
#3 MUCH BETTER - Broke his maiden at first asking on the dirt before making the lead in the stretch of the Zuma Beach then tiring to second. Improved first time on turf. Has good early speed to find early position and avoid trouble and should improve second try on turf.
#14 ANTHONY VAN DYCK – The horse to beat but drew very poorly on the outside. Rattled off three in a row after losing his debut before finishing second and third, respectively in the G1 Vincent O’Brien National and G1 Dewhurst in his last pair. He broke his maiden in his lone try at a mile. Gradually improving and sheet numbers are impressive. Should like the distance.
#8 OPRY - Broke his maiden second out in the G3 With Anticipation at Saratoga before failing in the Pilgrim where he settled for fourth as the 8-5 chalk after moving too soon. Needs to be more patient here but should not be overlooked.
#4 FORTY UNDER Struggled in his debut on dirt but won his last two since switching to turf. After breaking his maiden at the Spa, he closed nicely to take down the G3 Pilgrim at Belmont over yielding ground most recently. Both races on turf were at over a mile.
#7 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN - rolled in his second start to win a New York-bred maiden race at Saratoga before finishing second in both the With Anticipation and Pilgrim. Maker brings his young horses along slowly so this one should improve again.
JUVENILE
RACE 9
#9 GAME WINNER - Undefeated in three starts for trainer Bob Baffert. After breaking his maiden at Del Mar by nearly six lengths on the front end, Game Winner came from off the pace to win the G1 Futurity at Delmar. Stretched out to this distance last out, he handled the two turns with ease after dueling through sensible fractions on the lead to win the G1 American Pharoah by over four lengths. Has a tendency to run wide and outside so is vulnerable but is the most likely winner.
#6 COMPLEXITY - Broke his maiden on closing day at Saratoga with one of the most impressive juvenile performances of the meet when he overcame a slow start to make the lead and win by over four lengths from the rail. Chad Brown stepped him up in class for the G1 Champagne last out at Belmont. He fired out, established a clear lead through fast early fractions and coasted home through the stretch, a three-length winner. Bred as more of a sprinter so two turns here is a question. The top two horses in here will be tough to beat.
#8 STANDARD DEVIATION – Chad Brown’s “other horse” in here. He broke his maiden on an off-the-turf race going seven furlongs at Saratoga in his debut and then overcame a slow start and made up a bunch of ground finishing 3rd in the Breeders’ Futurity from post 13. Will be closing hard and has a puncher’s chance.
#5 WELL DEFINED - Coasted home to win at this distance last out in a Florida Stallion Stakes race at Gulfstream and has won two of his four starts. This is a step up in class and he doesn’t look fast enough to beat the top two but could hit the ticket.
