Breeders Cup 2017 - November 3 & 4 at Del Mar

Gandolf

Gandolf

Leader of the Van Buren Boys
It's Breeders Cup Week! Full fields of 14 expected in most races, including an exciting Classic field featuring last year's champ Arrogate vs always in form Gun Runner, this year's potential Arrogate in West Coast, and super classy two time Group 1 winner Churchill from Ireland.

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Alright, excited for the BC...haven't looked at anything yet but will probably be on Lady Eli....love that horse
 
The March Madness of horse racing. Can't wait.

Think Chad Brown is gonna have a big couple of days.

Think we will see something great in the Classic. Arrogate looks like his old self in the mornings. Just don't know if he'll improve any on the track that is his nemesis.
 
Good Racing Post article weighing the chances of the Euros: https://www.racingpost.com/news/bre...ces-of-the-european-runners-at-del-mar/306934

Juvenile Fillies' Turf
Runners (not including reserves): Happily, Now You're Talking, Madeline, September, Juliet Capulet

The potted version of any Breeders' Cup preview would be the rule of thumb that states if a race is on turf, then the Europeans have a good chance.

The slight counterbalance is that tight, left-handed US turf tracks (of which Del Mar is among the tightest) are a relative rarity over here and that is worth noting in particular in this race, where most of the key European form comes from places like Newmarket, the Curragh and Newbury. Those races, mostly run in the autumn, have also been on softer ground.

Happily is a dual Group 1 winner and the likeliest to take this if handling conditions. Even if she doesn't, Rockfel winner Juliet Capulet and a handful of other Group 1-placed fillies give Europe one of its deepest line-ups of the meeting.

Rating: 8/10

Juvenile Turf
Runners: Mendelssohn, Sands Of Mali, Beckford, Masar, James Garfield, Rajasinghe

A maiden Grade 1 success is guaranteed here as none of the 14 have previously won at the highest level. Beckford has been in the queue longest and has gone closest, beaten just half a length in the Phoenix Stakes in August.

A flick through the form of the runners would suggest that Europe's six have much more good form to call upon. Strictly that is true, but bear in mind that the only two turf Grade 1s for two-year-olds in the US take place at this fixture so it is to be expected that the European runners look stronger on paper.

Dutched on Wednesday, Europe would be shorter than 1-2. The reality is probably less rosy, but still shorter than even money.

Rating: 7/10

Turf Sprint (7.37 Saturday)
Runners: Washington DC, Marsha, Cotai Glory

There is plenty of European ink in Lady Aurelia's passport, but here she is part of the home team and her style is theoretically at least as well suited to rattling quick, tight-turning courses like this.

Marsha is the main European hope, having mowed down Lady Aurelia at York and some of the locals will tell you that the sprint track is a closer's track – which may just be relative.

Washington DC and Cotai Glory are close enough in sprinting terms to have a puncher's chance, but their prospects, and those of most of the others, appear to rest on John Velasquez getting over-excited on the favourite.

Rating: 5/10

Filly & Mare Turf
Runners: Senga, Wuheida, Queen's Trust, Nezwaah, Rhododendron

A wide draw and a trip that is potentially on the sharp side works against Rhododendron, who would otherwise have been a warm order after her success in the Prix de l'Opera.

Queen's Trust won the race last year for Sir Michael Stoute, who has an especially good record in this contest. Her season up to now has not been quite as bad as the form figures imply and you can guarantee this has been the date circled on the calendar all along.

Allied to that, the three-strong back-up squad can all claim individual Group 1 success in Europe, a French Classic in the case of Senga.

Rating: 7/10

Mile
Runners: Lancaster Bomber, Zelzal, Suedois, Home Of The Brave, Ribchester, Roly Poly, Karar

Exactly half of the field in the mile are European and, even besides champion older miler Ribchester, most would be in the first half of the betting.

'Home' hopes rest with Canadian-based trainer Mark Casse, best known to European fans for saddling last year's Queen Anne Stakes winner Tepin. World Approval is North America's top turf miler and was last seen giving Lancaster Bomber a sound beating in the Woodbine Mile. The weight of numbers still lie in Europe's favour.

Rating: 8/10

Juvenile
Runner: US Navy Flag

With the likes of Bolt D'Oro and Free Drop Billy against him it will not be easy, but US Navy Flag is a genuinely interesting contender for Aidan O'Brien, who won this race with Johannesburg 16 years ago.

Not only is US Navy Flag progressing fast and the winner of perhaps Europe's best juvenile race, the manner in which he won the Dewhurst and a plum draw in stall one here provide the ingredients for a bold bid from Ryan Moore. Furthermore, his pedigree has an encouraging number of US performers in there. He could be his yard's and his continent's surprise package.

Rating: 6/10

Turf
Runners: Talismanic, Highland Reel, Decorated Knight, Ulysses, Cliffs Of Moher, Seventh Heaven

This is a corner of America that is forever Europe. An overwhelming majority of winners have shipped in and, while eight of the runners this year are trained in North America, only one of them (Beach Patrol) is a single-figure price.

Highland Reel heads the betting ahead of Ulysses, with Decorated Knight another really interesting runner stepped up to 1m4f for the first time. When the six runners from Europe would make a decent Group 1 on their own, it is hard to see the Americans getting a look in.

Rating: 10/10

Classic
Runners: War Decree, Churchill
Ballydoyle have a history of finding the Classic too good to resist and the chances are their two runners this time are rather tilting at windmills once more.

Churchill has the class to compete with a seemingly diminished Arrogate and maybe even Gun Runner on the form he showed in the spring. Also, he has something more of a dirt racer's way of doing things than Gleneagles, the last O'Brien horse to try to win the Classic.

However, it is difficult to argue against the idea that his form chance, plus the uncertainty over taking to the surface, are both sufficiently factored into a price of 16-1.

Rating: 3/10




 
From the Wednesday and Thursday Delmar races it appeared like you needed to be near the lead on the dirt and the turf was playing fair with the sprints maybe leaning to off the pace horses. California Breeder's Cups have been notorious for having the dirt courses turn into speed tracks.
 
Friday BC Races:

#6 Juvy Fillies Turf - I think you can get through this race using both Chad Brown (8 & 11) and both Aidan O'Brien fillies (2 & 10). Longshot chances to 4 and 13.

#7 Dirt Mile - Accelerate (8) loves the track, has the figures, and should sit a good stalking trip. Sharp Azteca (3) will be a good proxy on how well speed holds in the two turn races. Mor Spirit (6) was a beast in the Met Mile but has been off since, not sure what we get from him. Long shot candidate is Iron Fist (1) who has some back success at Del Mar and is coming in with good form and turning back from recent Midwest stakes. Cupid is getting buzz due to a recent Delmar win but it looks too slow to me. Practical Joke also gets some buzz but I think he's a little outclassed and pace compromised here, plus he's mainly a one-turn beast.

#8 Juvy Turf - A bit of a scramble here as the Euros have never quite won at this level yet and the Americans have limited history to go on. For the Euros, Mendlessohn (1) was competitive with US Navy Flag last out. who would probably be the favorite if running in this instead of on Saturday. Masar (6) was close to Happily last out, who is one of the favorites in Race 6. James Garfield (7) stretches out off a Grade 2 win in Europe which makes him worthy here. On the American side Encumbered returns to turf (2 for 2) after taking a shot at Bolt D'oro in the Front Runner. My Boy Jack (13) has Delmar experience and has steadily improved for the Desormeaux boys, winning the Zuma Beach last out. Hemp Hemp Hurray (12) gets Johnny V and potentially an easy lead to nurse along. A bunch of others getting some buzz too: Snapper Sinclair, Catholic Boy, Beckford, Sands of Mali all have positives. And I haven't mentioned Voting Control from Chad Brown. This is the race that will make the Pick 4 pay decent. Best betting race of the day by far. Take your shots.

#9 Distaff - This race breaks down a couple of ways: Are the two mares Stellar Wind (9) and Unbridled Forever (6) too experienced and classy for the three fillies Elate (5), Abel Tasman (4) and Paradise Woods (7)? Or do early runners Stellar Wind and Paradise Wood ding dong enough to open it up for Abel Tasman, Elate and Forever Unbridled to come get them? I have Stellar Wind, Elate and Forever Unbridled as my A's, Paradise Woods as a B and Abel Tasman as a C. If I'm down to one its Stellar Wind and her 3 for 3 at Del Mar.
 
Saturday it looks like the early Pick 4 will be a lot more lucrative than the late. You can hang your hat in the late pick 4 on a couple in each race. Races 5 through 7 look quite difficult.
 
My Friday Thoughts:

Juvy Fillies Turf. The Euro fillies seem to be a better group than the males later in the day. Having said that, I think Chad Brown wins with Significant Form over her stablemate, Rushing Fall. She seems to have more tactical speed than Rushing Fall. I'm also using Capla Temptress in my pick 3s
 
Closer look at the Juvenile Turf field

1st/2nd Call in past stakes races

12 Hemp Hemp Hurray dueling 2nd in Summer (Beyer 74) - grabbed lead in stretch but was caught late
6 Masar chased leader in G1 Lagardere (approx Beyer 80) - grabbed lead in stretch but was run down in last 60 yards

11 Snapper Sinclair 2nd/3rd in Kentucky Downs Stake (Beyer 72) - 4 path on turn, finished well to win
10 Flameaway 3rd on dirt in G3 Bourbon (Beyer 71) - intended twice for turf but rained off, won both in slop MYSTERY HORSE
1 Mendelssohn tracked leaders in G1 Dewhurst (approx Beyer 80) - chased winner US Navy Flag but could not catch

9 Encumbered 5th in Delmar Juvy (Beyer 79) - 4 wide into stretch, took lead and held sway
4 Catholic Boy 5th in G3 With Anticipation (Beyer 71) - good trip, 2 wide in upper stretch, pulled away
2 Untamed Domain 5th in G2 Summer (Beyer 75) - off slow, lugged in stretch but still got up in time - GETTING BETTER
8 Voting Control 6th in G3 Pilgrim (Beyer 74) - squeezed at start, 4 wide in final 1/8th mile - COULD IMPROVE WITH BETTER TRIP
5 Beckford midpack of 12 in G1 Juddmonte (approx Beyer 67)
3 Sands of Mali midpack of 12 in G1 Juddmonte (approx Beyer 47)

13 My Boy Jack 8th in Zuma Beach (Beyer 80) - four wide into stretch, rallied to win - SHOULD BE RUNNING LATE
7 James Garfield toward rear in G2 Mill Reef (approx Beyer 76) - drifted right and rallied strongly to win - SHOULD BE RUNNING LATE
14 Rajasinghe toward rear of 12 in G1 Juddmonte (approx Beyer 58)

Looks like the Juddmonte was a bit of a clunker for the three in this field, although US Navy flag rated an approximate 83 in his win.

Going to play a set of dime supers using 6 and 7 in W,P,S spot (W-P, W-S, P-S), will use 1, 2, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 in the other top 3 spot and in fourth.

6,7 / 6, 7 / 1, 2, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 / 1, 2, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13
6,7 / 1, 2, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 / 6,7 / 1, 2, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13
1, 2, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 / 6,7 / 6, 7 / 1, 2, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13

Total cost $33.60
 
The Dirt Mile is probably the deepest field of the day. Sharp Azteca will be no surprise to go wire to wire. I'm leaving Mor Spirit out. Long layoff and hasn't showed me in the morning that he's the same horse he was in summer.

I still think Practical Joke shows up and will be a big factor late, despite the fact he's never won going two turns.
 
Moving this weekend so hectic af and head isn't really in the game but...Del Mar R6: Pk3 #1,6,8,11/10/2,8,11
 
It was only a matter of time before Britney Eurton made it to the network broadcasts. She has "it".
 
Race 4 Juvy Fillies - Leaning towards the Frizette runners as a little bit better than those coming out of the Chandelier, then the Kentucky and Woodbine preps.

A - 12,13
B - 7,8,9
C - 1,11

Race 5 Turf Sprint - Hard to get past the dominant summers of Lady Aurelia and Marsha, who was actually giving pounds when she beat the lady. Disco Partner and Holding Gold are possible the way the turf has been playing.

A - 3,6
B - 1,2
C - 12
 
Race 6 F&M Sprint - Either one of the easiest races if you believe in Unique Bella or the very toughest race on the card if you remember that no 3YO has ever won this race and she isn't faster than many others in here. Dirt races have seemed to favor forwardly placed horses unless like Unbridled Forever you make your big move on the turn. Seems like the shorter stretch and the general setup preclude big stretch moves. Based on current form and turn time ratings Finley'sluckycharm and Skye Diamonds look every bit as viable at better prices. Curlin's Approval, Carina Mia and Highway Star all figure to start a little further back but have the turn times to compete. Must also mention Constellation making first start in Baffert barn who has a win and 2nd by a neck in her last two G1 7 furlong efforts. Also Ami's Mesa is 4 for 5 at distance but all an poly, so she's a bit of a mystery. Great betting race.

A - 9,11,12
B - 1,3,10
C - 2,4,7,8,14
 
The Chan
Gandolf said:
Race 4 Juvy Fillies - Leaning towards the Frizette runners as a little bit better than those coming out of the Chandelier, then the Kentucky and Woodbine preps.

A - 12,13
B - 7,8,9
C - 1,11

Race 5 Turf Sprint - Hard to get past the dominant summers of Lady Aurelia and Marsha, who was actually giving pounds when she beat the lady. Disco Partner and Holding Gold are possible the way the turf has been playing.

A - 3,6
B - 1,2
C - 12
Click to expand...

The Chandelier was so slow. Nearly 3 seconds slower than the Front Runner. Separation of Powers was my pick, but the 13 post hurts. Very wide open race. Still using her, but forced to go a bit deeper now.
 
Agreed of the filly sprint. I love Unique Bella but I'm not taking her at 9/5. Too quality of a field for that.

I lean Finleysluckycharm. Think she gets a good trip being towards the outside. Loved how she sat off the pace a bit last time.
 
Race 7 F&M Turf - Sentimental favorite Lady Eli seems to be coming into this well and is 3 for 3 at the shorter than usual 9 furlong distance, which matches the total number of wins at the distance from the REST of the field. Pace is a bit murky in this one, which could give Cambodia a chance to sneak away. Defending champ Queen's Trust in poor form. Nezwaah also ran poor last out but was on soft ground, could improve on firmer surface. Euro shippers Wuheida and Rhododendron both in good form on the turnback. Grand Jete also in good form. Just think this one hits Lady Eli right between the eyes.

A - 9
B - 5,6,14
C - 8,10,11
 
A shame Kitten's Roar couldn't get into the F&M Turf, she just ate up the field in the G2 Goldikova.
 
Can't leave yourself too much to do on the dirt course stretch. Smoke'em was huge on the turn but started too far back to catch Bookie's Luck, who was on the pace and handled the turn and stretch well.
 
Race 8 Sprint - Nothing terribly clever here. Drefong has only a weird incident where she threw Mike Smith in the Bing Crosby as a blemish. But it did happen at Del Mar so... Roy H is a solid sprinter and if this was at Santa Anita he'd be an A, but somehow he lost to Ransom the Moon after Drefong's incident, only to dust him a month later. Takaful is an improving 3YO who loves 6 furlongs but the Vosburgh did not have a great field. Imperial Hint has super quick numbers coming out of Parx, is he for real? Mind Your Biscuits has back class but that last effort was a stinker. American Pastime has a Delmar win but his Parx win was over a second slower than Imperial Hint. Calculator will make a late run but is against the track type today, might be worth a reverse tri-key though.

A - 2,10
B - 7,8
C - 1,3
 
It's like they put a college football day in the middle of the biggest horse day of the year
 
Arrogate gonna get dusted, we all know that....how to use Gun Runner is the trick
 
You can definitely make up ground late on this turf course. Interesting to see three Euros come in 1-2-3 on a turf sprint.

Race 9 Mile - On figures Ribchester and World Approval tower over this group. Good shots in here for Roly Poly, piloted by Ryan Moore who has him figured out judging by their last 3 wins together, and Ballagh Rocks who got a worse trip than Suedois in the Shadwell. Pace figures to be quick and compromising to Heart to Heart, Blackjack and Mr. Roary. Suedois at 9-1 in the Shadwell was good value, at 6-1 in here not so much. Zelzai has back class and a better price, might prefer the firmer turf.

A - 5,10
B - 11,12
C - 6,8
 
Race 10 Juvenile - Disappointing field with the exception of two horses. Bolt d'Oro has a monster two turn win that towers over this field. US Navy Flag is a very talented colt trying dirt for the first time, but he was flattered by Mendelssohn's win yesterday. Firenze Fire, Solomini and MAIDEN Good Magic have Beyer's that make them competitive to get in the money. Free Drop Billy can also compete for a check and has the only other two turn Grade 1 win.

A - 11
B - 1
C - 2,3,5,6
 
Gandolf said:
Race 4 Juvy Fillies - Leaning towards the Frizette runners as a little bit better than those coming out of the Chandelier, then the Kentucky and Woodbine preps.

A - 12,13
B - 7,8,9
C - 1,11

Race 5 Turf Sprint - Hard to get past the dominant summers of Lady Aurelia and Marsha, who was actually giving pounds when she beat the lady. Disco Partner and Holding Gold are possible the way the turf has been playing.

A - 3,6
B - 1,2
C - 12
Click to expand...

Nice call on the 12
 
So much for that start. Strange, lesser Euros go 1-2-3 in the 3rd race sprint, the better Euro sprinters go 6th and 10th here.
 
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