GameHunter
Pretty much a regular
FRIDAY
JUVENILE TURF
Race 6 – 5:25 EST
One of the most wide open of all this year’s Breeder’s Cup events. You can make a case for more than half the field in here. It’s a short run into the turn here so ground loss for outside horses could be a problem. Europeans have dominated this event in the 7 years it has existed, winning 5 and only in 2010 did a Euro not hit the exacta finish.
1 – WET SAIL – Drew well but hasn’t been past 6 furlongs. Solidly bred to like distance. Has shown steady improvement in each of his 4 race in the UK and switches trainers to Charlie Fellows. Finished 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in his last Stakes race in a 23 horse field so seems to be able to negotiate in traffic. Used to carrying more weight and will be carrying 4 less pounds here than his last and 9 less than his first two starts. Based upon draw and consistent improvement, he’s not out of the question here. I will be sprinkling into exotics and will use a little bit on top.
2 – DADDY D T – Ran a huge figure on dirt in his last race, just his 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in his career; a figure which is far and above everyone else as he chased American Pharaoh in the Grade 1 Front Runner. Can he replicate it on dirt? Pedigree says yes. He won the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf at this distance two back from an inside post. Local horse has a real shot at a price and if he runs anything close here on turf to his last figure on dirt, he will have a lot to say in the outcome. Will definitely be using at a price.
3 – LUCK OF THE KITTEN – Made a significant 4 point jump in his last to reach a competitive figure in first race at Santa Anita but difficult to think he will improve further here. Shows lightning speed out of the gate so traffic won’t be an issue. Won his last at this track at this distance in the Zuma Beach and brings in the field’s best last race Beyer Figure. Not out of the question and they will have his speed to catch.
4 – COMMEMORATIVE – Coming off short rest of 20 days after winning the Autumn Stakes in the UK. Improved dramatically in last at this distance and we can expect to see some early speed. Sheet numbers are as good as any and sheds 5 pounds from his last. A contender but the quick turnaround and travel is a concern.
5 – HOOTENANNY – Put up two outstanding sprint figures in his most recent two races in Europe, which clearly contend here but can he stretch out to a mile? Finished 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] as the favorite in the $463,500 Prix Morny in France, one of the most important juvenile races in Europe and two back took the Windsor Castle Stakes in the UK in a 24 horse field in convincing fashion. Nice spacing between 4 races. Wesley Ward is sharp with young turfers and he adds Lasix back. Could get a nice stalking trip. Possible betting favorite. Major player but you have to get past the fact that he has only one race over 5 furlongs and that was at 6. By far the most impressive credentials of the horses who have raced in Europe.
6 – CONQUEST TYPHOON – Has shown decent races in his last two stretching out, one on turf and one on Poly but both fields were suspect. Expensive yearling bought for $330,000 has won at this distance in the Grade 2 Summer at Woodbine. Sheet numbers are ok but not great. Trainer, Mark Casse hasn’t faired well at Santa Anita. Looking elsewhere but not completely out of the question.
7 – WAR ENVOY – Heavily raced as a 2 year old, making his 8th start since late April. Hasn’t been past 7 furlongs but improved most recently in his two 7 furlong starts. Switches to new trainer in Aidan O’Brien. Adds first time Lasix and gets capable pilot in Moore. Another in the mix here in a contentious race. Not out of the question and will use at the bottom of the ticket but not as much on top.
8 – OFFERING PLAN – Scratched last Sunday out of the Awad at Belmont for this. Won his maiden voyage at 1 1/16[SUP]th[/SUP] at Saratoga and runnerup came back to win an allowance race with an 82 Beyer. Ran a solid 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in the Pilgrim just two lengths behind Imperia who is also in here and runnerup in that race came back to win the Awad. Sheet numbers are a tad below but he’s capable of hitting the ticket although probably won't be in my mix.
9 – AKTABANTAY - Heavily raced as a 2 year old, making his 7[SUP]th[/SUP] start since May and seems to be more of a sprinter. Has been 1[SUP]st[/SUP] or 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in 5 of his 6 races. Trainer change to Palmer. Slight improvement figure wise in his last and he adds first time Lasix. Has the ability to be near the front or to come from behind. Not completely out of the mix but his sheet numbers are slightly behind some of the other Euros. May sprinkle in slightly for a minor award.
10 – STARTUPNATION – Improved nicely in his 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] start taking the Grade 2 Wild Anticipation with an 85 Beyer, the highest turf Beyer in this field. He was the odds on favorite in the Pilgrim and went 3 points backwards, which is not a good sign although Rosario thought he was intimidated by the inside trip. Has to be considered.
11 – IMPERIA – Won the Pilgrim with an 81 Beyer after being blocked in his maiden voyage and flying home late for 2[SUP]nd[/SUP]. Lightly raced with just two starts and improved significantly with first time Lasix but figure would have to improve a bit to win. Owed by Godolphin Racing, which won this race with Outstrip last year. Trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin has struggled in recent years at the Breeders Cup. Not out of the question but I am looking elsewhere on top.
12 – INTERNATIONAL STAR – Won the Grade 3 Grey on Polytrack at Woodbine but trainer, Michael Maker feels he is better on turf. Owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey who are no strangers to the winner’s circle. Has two firsts and two seconds in 4 races but figures are unimpressive and the post position makes him tough to use.
13 – LAWN RANGER – Improved in last winning with solid figure at Keeneland but had a good trip, which will be difficult here from Post 13. Won two back at this distance on turf at Kentucky Downs. Tough to see him winning from out of Post 13 but does have tactical early speed and first time Lasix. Will look elsewhere but not out of the question to hit bottom of ticket.
14 – DANNY BOY – Has a short history of wide trips and got an absolute horrible draw here. Lightly raced but steadily improving and shows a good sheet number in his last. In fact, has the best single race US sheet number in the field. Wish he drew better. Shows outstanding works. Could hit ticket but the 14 post in this race is a real setback. Would’ve used heavily if he drew better.
PICKS:
5 – HOOTENANNY – fast but has to handle the distance. Adds back Lasix. Top choice.
2 – DADDY D T – if he can translate dirt figures to turf, he’s got a real chance. Value play.
1 – WET SAIL – bit of an X factor and improving.
10 - STARTUPNATION - if he did indeed get intimidated in his last, his effort two back makes him a contender.
14 – DANNY BOY – would be one of my top 2 choices if not for the bad post.
7 – WAR ENVOY – another who should improve with lasix but must get the distance.
JUVENILE TURF
Race 6 – 5:25 EST
One of the most wide open of all this year’s Breeder’s Cup events. You can make a case for more than half the field in here. It’s a short run into the turn here so ground loss for outside horses could be a problem. Europeans have dominated this event in the 7 years it has existed, winning 5 and only in 2010 did a Euro not hit the exacta finish.
1 – WET SAIL – Drew well but hasn’t been past 6 furlongs. Solidly bred to like distance. Has shown steady improvement in each of his 4 race in the UK and switches trainers to Charlie Fellows. Finished 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in his last Stakes race in a 23 horse field so seems to be able to negotiate in traffic. Used to carrying more weight and will be carrying 4 less pounds here than his last and 9 less than his first two starts. Based upon draw and consistent improvement, he’s not out of the question here. I will be sprinkling into exotics and will use a little bit on top.
2 – DADDY D T – Ran a huge figure on dirt in his last race, just his 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in his career; a figure which is far and above everyone else as he chased American Pharaoh in the Grade 1 Front Runner. Can he replicate it on dirt? Pedigree says yes. He won the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf at this distance two back from an inside post. Local horse has a real shot at a price and if he runs anything close here on turf to his last figure on dirt, he will have a lot to say in the outcome. Will definitely be using at a price.
3 – LUCK OF THE KITTEN – Made a significant 4 point jump in his last to reach a competitive figure in first race at Santa Anita but difficult to think he will improve further here. Shows lightning speed out of the gate so traffic won’t be an issue. Won his last at this track at this distance in the Zuma Beach and brings in the field’s best last race Beyer Figure. Not out of the question and they will have his speed to catch.
4 – COMMEMORATIVE – Coming off short rest of 20 days after winning the Autumn Stakes in the UK. Improved dramatically in last at this distance and we can expect to see some early speed. Sheet numbers are as good as any and sheds 5 pounds from his last. A contender but the quick turnaround and travel is a concern.
5 – HOOTENANNY – Put up two outstanding sprint figures in his most recent two races in Europe, which clearly contend here but can he stretch out to a mile? Finished 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] as the favorite in the $463,500 Prix Morny in France, one of the most important juvenile races in Europe and two back took the Windsor Castle Stakes in the UK in a 24 horse field in convincing fashion. Nice spacing between 4 races. Wesley Ward is sharp with young turfers and he adds Lasix back. Could get a nice stalking trip. Possible betting favorite. Major player but you have to get past the fact that he has only one race over 5 furlongs and that was at 6. By far the most impressive credentials of the horses who have raced in Europe.
6 – CONQUEST TYPHOON – Has shown decent races in his last two stretching out, one on turf and one on Poly but both fields were suspect. Expensive yearling bought for $330,000 has won at this distance in the Grade 2 Summer at Woodbine. Sheet numbers are ok but not great. Trainer, Mark Casse hasn’t faired well at Santa Anita. Looking elsewhere but not completely out of the question.
7 – WAR ENVOY – Heavily raced as a 2 year old, making his 8th start since late April. Hasn’t been past 7 furlongs but improved most recently in his two 7 furlong starts. Switches to new trainer in Aidan O’Brien. Adds first time Lasix and gets capable pilot in Moore. Another in the mix here in a contentious race. Not out of the question and will use at the bottom of the ticket but not as much on top.
8 – OFFERING PLAN – Scratched last Sunday out of the Awad at Belmont for this. Won his maiden voyage at 1 1/16[SUP]th[/SUP] at Saratoga and runnerup came back to win an allowance race with an 82 Beyer. Ran a solid 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in the Pilgrim just two lengths behind Imperia who is also in here and runnerup in that race came back to win the Awad. Sheet numbers are a tad below but he’s capable of hitting the ticket although probably won't be in my mix.
9 – AKTABANTAY - Heavily raced as a 2 year old, making his 7[SUP]th[/SUP] start since May and seems to be more of a sprinter. Has been 1[SUP]st[/SUP] or 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in 5 of his 6 races. Trainer change to Palmer. Slight improvement figure wise in his last and he adds first time Lasix. Has the ability to be near the front or to come from behind. Not completely out of the mix but his sheet numbers are slightly behind some of the other Euros. May sprinkle in slightly for a minor award.
10 – STARTUPNATION – Improved nicely in his 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] start taking the Grade 2 Wild Anticipation with an 85 Beyer, the highest turf Beyer in this field. He was the odds on favorite in the Pilgrim and went 3 points backwards, which is not a good sign although Rosario thought he was intimidated by the inside trip. Has to be considered.
11 – IMPERIA – Won the Pilgrim with an 81 Beyer after being blocked in his maiden voyage and flying home late for 2[SUP]nd[/SUP]. Lightly raced with just two starts and improved significantly with first time Lasix but figure would have to improve a bit to win. Owed by Godolphin Racing, which won this race with Outstrip last year. Trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin has struggled in recent years at the Breeders Cup. Not out of the question but I am looking elsewhere on top.
12 – INTERNATIONAL STAR – Won the Grade 3 Grey on Polytrack at Woodbine but trainer, Michael Maker feels he is better on turf. Owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey who are no strangers to the winner’s circle. Has two firsts and two seconds in 4 races but figures are unimpressive and the post position makes him tough to use.
13 – LAWN RANGER – Improved in last winning with solid figure at Keeneland but had a good trip, which will be difficult here from Post 13. Won two back at this distance on turf at Kentucky Downs. Tough to see him winning from out of Post 13 but does have tactical early speed and first time Lasix. Will look elsewhere but not out of the question to hit bottom of ticket.
14 – DANNY BOY – Has a short history of wide trips and got an absolute horrible draw here. Lightly raced but steadily improving and shows a good sheet number in his last. In fact, has the best single race US sheet number in the field. Wish he drew better. Shows outstanding works. Could hit ticket but the 14 post in this race is a real setback. Would’ve used heavily if he drew better.
PICKS:
5 – HOOTENANNY – fast but has to handle the distance. Adds back Lasix. Top choice.
2 – DADDY D T – if he can translate dirt figures to turf, he’s got a real chance. Value play.
1 – WET SAIL – bit of an X factor and improving.
10 - STARTUPNATION - if he did indeed get intimidated in his last, his effort two back makes him a contender.
14 – DANNY BOY – would be one of my top 2 choices if not for the bad post.
7 – WAR ENVOY – another who should improve with lasix but must get the distance.
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