Breeders' Cup 2013 - Saturday

[GameHunter]

Had a pretty good Friday and made some nice money hitting two superfectas and a few exactas. Royal Delta kept it from being a great day. Something clearly wasn't right with her.

I don't have as much time today for detailed writeups. Sorry.

SATURDAY
JUVENILE FILLIES
RACE 4

There really doesn't seem to be a lot of potential surprises here with 4-5 main contenders. Every horse has run using lasix in the past and there is no lasix allowed in this one, so we could see a horse or two take a few steps backwards.

#7 UNTAPABLE - Like her win in the Pocahontas stretching out off a 2.5 month layoff. Should work out a nice stalking trip and has had another 8 weeks off to prepare. Rosie Napravnik's only BC mount.

#1 ARTEMIS AGROTERA - Well positioned with good early speed and looks like she can handle two turns. Will have to deal with early pressure from She's a Tiger. Frizette winner is the horse to beat.

#9 SWEET REASON - Overcame a terrible start finishing 2nd in the Frizette to Artemis. Was outstanding in the Grade 1 Spinaway. Stretching out to two turns and a mile and a 1/16th is the only question. Quite possibly the best filly in the race but thE distance and lost lasix could prevent her from seeing the winner's circle.

#2 ROSALIND - The lone horse here who has run twice without lasix (once with). Ran a nice 2nd to My Conquistadory (who ran well yesterday) in the Alcibades. Sheet numbers are slightly below the top horses but should be decently positioned.

#10 SHE'S A TIGER - Cant fault 3 wins and 2 seconds in her five races. Has good early speed to overcome the post. Her last race was a tiring 2nd in her lone route event so the distance may not be perfect. Sheet numbers slightly below the top three.

 

[GameHunter]

FILLY AND MARE TURF
RACE 5

#6 MARKETING MIX - Ran a solid 2nd int his event last year. Has won 10 of 20 lifetime starts, ia proven Grade 1 winner, beat the boys three back and should have an excellent trip right behind speedball Laughing.

#2 ROMANTICA - Ships in from France and won a Grade 1 event two back at this distance and has 3 wins and a 2nd in four races at this distance. Didn't seem to like the soft footing in the recent Grade 1 7th place finish but am more impressed with her past performances overseas than #1 Dank's.

#1 DANK - Exploded in first American start after adding lasix, taking a Grade 1 event and posting a monstrous Beyer. If she runs like she did in her last, she is clearly the one to beat. However, if you look at her 10 European starts, she's a contender but wouldn't be close to being the favorite. Likely favorite, who is in the mix but gives no value for a horse off now 2.5 months after eye-opening win.

#3 TIZ FLIRTATIOUS - Solid as can be, never being out of the money in 12 races (8-3-1). In her most recent, she won a mile and a 1/4 event here at Santa Anita. Sheet numbers just slightly below what I am looking for here but she's a contender.

#7 LAUGHING - Simple game plan. Put her on the lead and see if they can catch her. Is 4 for 4 this year including two grade 1 wins. Has led every step of the way in her last three. If she gets away unpressured, she is dangerous but her sheet numbers are slightly below what I want and I think Marketing Mix will sit right behind her and beat her down the stretch.

 

[GameHunter]

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT
RACE 6

#11 GROUPIE DOLL - If this mare runs close to her best, she wins by half a zip code. If this mare runs a step or two below her best, she wins this. Her sheet numbers stand out like Scarlett Johansson at an Ugly Convention, however, her three races this year have been a step below what we are used to seeing. Her running style of going three wide and closing makes her vulnerable to an occasional bad trip. She did get beat in her last by #9 Judy the Beauty on a synthetic surface spotting her three pounds so she isn't a mortal lock.The clear favorite and the one to beat. Won this last year in devastating fashion.

#8 DANCE TO BRISTOL - 10 wins and 8 2nd in 19 races. Wow! Broke 7 race winning streak in last with a wide trip 2nd in a Grade 2 event. She is clearly a top contender but you must overcome the fact that she has low profile connections, has been raced heavily over the last year and this is the first time she ever had to get on a plane to race anywhere. 2nd best horse on sheets.

#4 DANCE CARD - Only 2nd start back off an injury related absence and had a horrible trip finishing 2nd in the Grade 2 Gallant Blum. More of a route horse but I expect to see a solid improved effort.

#9 JUDY THE BEAUTY - Has never missed the board in 12 starts (5-6-1) and hasn't won on dirt. Usable on bottom part of ticket but would be a surprise on the win end.

#5 TEDDY'S PROMISE - Speedball will take them as long as she can and with the track favoring speed horses, she is by no means out of the question.

#7 SUMMER APPLAUSE - More of a route horse so not sure about sprinting but she is improving and could add value to the bottom of the ticket.

#2 BOOK REVIEW - 5 for 7 at this distance but I say she isn't fast enough.

 

[King Slap]

You are the God of horse racing GH, been great to learn so much from you through the years in this sport - and still know 1/10th of what I wish I did

Trying to really get back into it now - but damn, never seen 190 guests in any CTG thread - numbers dont lie!

Haha, enjoy it today man, heading to Mohegan myself in a bit

 

[GameHunter]

TURF SPRINT
7TH RACE

This 6.5 furlong turf course if my favorite in the country. For those of you who haven't seen it, the course tilts downhill and is not your typical oval type of race. In addition, there is a patch of dirt near the final turn that has been known to spook a few horses. They go lightning quick! Experience on this course is a big benefit. This is a very competitive race and any oen of 9 horses has a legitimate shot here.

#14 UNBRIDLED'S NOTE - The bad post will certainly inflate his odds but remember he was the favorite from post #13 in this race last year and despite being 4 wide, had the lead in the stretch only to be beaten a half by Jim Rome's Mizdirection. He has hit the board in all 4 starts on this course with 2 wins and his sheet numbers are at the top of this race.

#12 MIZDIRECTION - Owned in part by Jim Rome, what more can you say other than this horse is 5 for 5 on this course and is the Turf Sprint defending champion. I'd be concerned about any other horse coming in off a 5 month layoff but it's the same pattern she won with last year so it's not a concern. She's 10 for 16 in her career and she won from post 11 last year.

#4 RENEESGOTZIP - 4 year old filly has missed the board just once in 12 starts (7-3-1) She has raced only once on turf but is a perfect 6 for 6 on synthetic so she probably will habdle the course ok. Her game is dart to the lead and catch me if you can. Solid sheet numbers if she can do it on this course. She has a shot to wire the field but note that so far this meet at Santa Anita, only 1 of 24 horses has gone gate to wire in a turf sprint.

#3 CHIPS ALL IN - Is 2 for 3 on this course with one second and put up Beyers of 105 and 101 on this course. Sheet numbers are just a smidgeon below the top two, but he has a chance.

If you want to take a shot with a longshot, this race has solid options.#5 CAROCORTADO, #7 TIGHTEND TOUCHDOWN, #9 CAPO BASTONE and #11 SPRING TO SKY have chances and wouldn't be total shockers.

 

[GameHunter]

JUVENILE
8TH RACE

#3 MEXIKOMA - Taking a shot with a live longshot but will play several of my other top choices equally in exotic bets. Big jump up in class but this horse made a gigantic improvement when switched in his 2nd race when he was switched to dirt; albeit against weaker competition. He was then bought by Team Valor, who know what they are doing and trainer Mettee had a solid runner in yesterday who finished 3rd.

#13 HAVANA - An absolute monster in his debut putting up an unheard of 102 Beyer then took the Grade 1 Champagne. Should be on or near the lead and has excellent sheet numbers. The question is can he go two turns and a mile and 1/16th. The favorite.

#6 TAP IT RICH - Only one career race was a blowout win here at Santa Anita three weeks ago where he was slow to get out of the gate and swung 4 wide in an impressive debut. The question is he has just three weeks off for Baffert and like everyone else here, he loses the lasix. If fresh, watch out.

#14 STRONG MANDATE - Tough post and this is the longest he has been asked to go but his maiden score at Saratoga was an eye opening sheet number, even though it was just 6.5 furlongs. He is one of the fastest horses in the race. If he works out a trip, he could be dangerous.

#4 NEW YEAR'S DAY - One for U2 fans or anyone keen on a horse coming off two decent synthetic races and firing great workouts on dirt lately. Baffert is always dangerous and of his 2 runners in this race, this one is the one flying under the radar.

#1 SMARTY'S ECHO - If you are looking for a longshot to throw into the bottom of gimmicks, this one could add value.

 

[GameHunter]

TURF
RACE 9

Wide open race.

#8 POINT OF ENTRY - Has posted 5 straight Beyers of 104+ and has won 7 of 8. Tough to argue with those credentials.

#10 BIG BLUE KITTEN - Has won 10 of 18 and is 17 for 17 in the money in the US.

#4 LITTLE MIKE - Last year's BC Turf winner. Took time to rebound from last year's big win but looked sharp in his last.

#3 TWILIGHT ECLIPSE - Live longshot with very competitive sheet numbers to the top contenders.

#7 THE FUGUE - No filly/mare has won this race since 1991 but her sheet numbers are just a smidgeon below the top ones. Finished 3rd in last years BC Filly and Mare Turf so I will take a stand against for the winner's circle but easily could hit the ticket.

#9 INDY POINT AND #12 REAL SOLUTION are viable contenders. Real Solution drew a really tough post and Indy Point would need a career best here. I had to draw a line somewhere.

 

[GameHunter]

SPRINT
RACE 10

#7 PRIVATE ZONE - Speed favoring track right now and he is a pure speedball with heart.

#3 GENTLEMEN'S BET - Sheet numbers are as good as any here. 5 for 8 wins and will have value.

#1 JUSTIN PHILLIP - Lied him last year at over 30-1 and he was a bit sure in this race last year. Strong sheet numbers. If John Velazquez doesn't return from his fall earlier today, this is a huge loss.

#9 SECRET CIRCLE - 6 wins and 2 2nds in 8 races. Quite impressive. Sheet numbers are a smidgeon below the top horses.

#12 LAUGH TRACK - Valuable longshot who can hit the ticket at a price.

 

[GameHunter]

MILE
RACE 11

#8 WISE DAN - Isn't a lock but his sheet numbers are superior. If Velazquez doesn't comeback, it wont' help but Lezcano has won with him twice. He's won 9 straight on turf. At his best, he won't be beat.

#2 SILENTIO - Improving colt on his home track with outstanding SA jockey Bejarano. Could sit off the strong pace and get a good trip.

#4 OBVIOUSLY - 8 of his last 9 races have resulted in 3 digit Beyers which is a must to win this race. Speedball will have to battle early with Silver Max.

#3 SILVER MAX - Speedball just beat Wise Dan on an off the turf race.

#1 NO JET LAG - Put up an outstanding Beyer of 105 in the Grade 2 City of Hope at Santa Anita.

 

[King Slap]

YEAH BOY! You just won me a ton on Groupie Doll

 

[GameHunter]

CLASSIC
RACE 12

#6 MUCHO MACHO MAN

#9 GAME ON DUDE

#7 FORT LARNED

#1 LAST GUNFIGHT

#12 FLAT OUT - If he wins, I may toss my cookies as had he won this race last year, I'd be over $400,000 richer.

 

[GameHunter]

YEAH BOY! You just won me a ton on Groupie Doll

Nice....I hit the superfecta...what did you catch?