Breeder’s Cup

[twinkie13]

Obviously I have a bit more interest here with Tom’s DEtat running.

They feel pretty good and this horse was kinda deemed the worst of the bunch given to the three NO trainers by the Benson’s, but that has changed. The big win, then the poor poor showing right after Al Stall Jr was due to “injury”
The odds will make the horse playable.

An aside note: Gayle Benson supposedly isn’t even going which is odd. Rumors abound she might be getting out of the game which would be a blow to the local trainers for sure.


I’ll wait for the experts here to chime in

 

[Teapot9]

View attachment 51690

 

[twinkie13]

@Gandolf

 

[Gandolf]

Working on it. Was going to ask how Stall felt about his horse. He's getting a lot of chatter from the handicapping gurus. Good to know he's feeling optimistic.

 

[twinkie13]

Working on it. Was going to ask how Stall felt about his horse. He's getting a lot of chatter from the handicapping gurus. Good to know he's feeling optimistic.

He is. Super sweating that Gayle may be getting out the game though.

Could be Blame Part 2. Would be incredible

 

[Gandolf]

Early Pick 4 thoughts (Race 4-7)

Race 4 - Tough to get away from this being a match race between Gamine and Serengeti Empress. They figure to be early speed and have the stamina to not wilt if they hook up and duel. No particular lean either way, will use both. B level horses Speech cutting back in distance and the 6 YO Come Dancing who once in awhile can fire off a gem that could beat the best.

A 2,7 B 1,3

Race 5 -Crazy wide open turf sprint where no less than ten are proven winners at the distance. Leinster and Imprimis seem to be just a head better than the rest, but I don't want to leave out the other two, Front Run the Fed and Bombard, that are coming off Kentucky Downs races and their stamina building course. Backup tickets on the Euro invader Glass Slippers and the talented Get Stormy, who doesn't have much experience at this distance but can run with anyone.

A 3,4,7,10 B 6,12

Race 6 - That quirky mile race which was intended to be a one turn race but at Keeneland only fits for two turns. This makes the favorite Complexity a bit of a gamble as he's 3/3 at the distance but they were all 1 turn miles. He actually ran poorly in his only 2 turn try. I'm going to drop him to B level and go with the speedy Knicks Go and Art Collector who won the Blue Grass at Keeneland a few months ago. Also of the venerable Mr. Freeze and Owendale.

A 1,5 B 9,10,12

Race 7 - Another of those classic BC turf races with a maddening blend of US and Euro horses. Mean Mary looks like controlling pace and Rushing Fall is the best US entry. They'll have their hands full with Terebellum, Audarya and Cayenne Pepper, who all come out of high class european events. Then there's Starship Jubilee and Sister Charlie, who will both get ground saving inside trips. Gotta cast a wide net if I'm alive this far.

A 4,6,7,11,14 B 1,2

 

[twinkie13]

Great shit man.

 

[Gandolf]

Late Pick 5 Today

Race 8 - Yaupon looks like the early speed and there may not be a lot to challenge this still improving colt. If he gets sufficiently pressured then the likes of Diamond Oops, CZ Rocket and Firenze Fire look poised to pounce. I also want to have a backup with Lasting Legacy, who draws in due to Vekoma's scratch and is 4/9 at the distance.

A 2,8,10,11 B 15
(10 is not unreasonable as a single)

Race 9 - Major head scratcher with another mix of good Euros and some reasonable US candidates. Pace setter Factor This will need to be headed, and it could happen with Halladay. Uni returns to defend and is running well, and Euros Circus Maximus, Kameko and Safe Voyage all have the necessary class. Digital Age for Chad Brown has been solid this year but might be just a cut below. Will cast net very wide here and hope to narrow elsewhere.

A 1, 2, 6, 12, 13 B 5,10

Race 10 - Fairly straight forward between the great Monomoy Girl and this year's top filly and Preakness champ Swiss Skydiver. A couple of price plays with puncher's chance should would be Horologist and Valiance.

A 5, 10 B 4,8

Race 11 - Channel Maker is the main US horse to use here with his early speed giving him a shot to clear the field and sneak away. Otherwise is the Euros Magical, Mogul and Tarnawa that look most logical, with Arklow and Lord North in the next tier.

A 2,3,9,10 B 1,6

Classic - Tom d'Etat has the Keeneland experience and the CTG connection, but will need a good pace for his strong closing kick to be most effective. Improbable has been great all year and Tiz the Law was the 3 YO king of the summer/fall. After that the early speed horses also merit a look with Authentic, Maximum Security and longshot Global Campaign setting the pace.

A 2,4,8 B 7,9,10
(will likely stick with just the A's and maybe press with Twink's horse).

 

[Brewers888]

I know pretty much nothing about horse racing (you can probably say that about a lot of things) but I bet on Tiz the Law. New York people have proven themselves to be as soft as it gets but New York horses are as tough as nails.

 

[Brewers888]

That jockey on Tiz the Law was terrible.

 

[GSlap]

Domination

 

[Gandolf]

Speed held quite well on the two turn races. One turn races too except for Whitmore's surprising run.