Breaking Down the Series

[Big Herm]

Well, there are too many threads going right now about the series and I wanted to get some insight all together in one thread without too many sidebars.

I personally have a heavy lean towards Tampa for the series. The starting pitching certainly favors Tampa and the bullpen probably goes to PHI. Both lineups are potent, but I give the advantage to Philly slightly as they have better overall numbers without the benefit of a DH. I saw someone note that Philly was "hungry" in another thread, but I can't imagine they are any hungrier than TB. I think it comes down to a combo of home field advantage and advantageous pitching matchups for the Rays.

I'd like to see some good statistical analysis talk here, perhaps we can break down the series with a good effort from our panel of esteemed researchers.

Off the top, I see some pitching splits that should be noted.

Game 1:

Kazmir - 8-2, 2.90 ERA, .197 BAA at home.
10-3, 2.89 ERA, .197 BAA at night
.198 BAA/.511 OPS vL(1 HR against in 131 ABs vL)

Those home splits speak for themselves, the VL is significant due to the Howard and Utley factor. For a team that depends on HRs, Kazmir may not be the guy these lefties want to face. Taking two of their top hitters and neutralizing them should be important. Kazmir, of course, has been a run higher in ERA since the break...but the opponent BAA is about the same.His walks/IP caught up with him quite a bit. Given Philly was 6th best with 3.6 BB/G, this could be significant.

Hamels is pretty much the same stud on the road and at home, just seemed to get luckier with the Ws on the road. Splits are almost identical. One interesting tidbit is the reverse splits Hamels has.

vL .262 avg/.774 OPS
vR .215/.617

Significant since Aki, Crawford, and Pena are lefties. Of course, some of their guys hit lefties well...so not sure how that will pan out. Crawford is one of the only guys with a significant lifetime line against Hamels, 2-3.

So, to sum it up...I have no idea about game 1, I think it is a toss up. I fell pretty confident that Hamels can go out and shut down the Rays for most of the game, but he could run into some trouble(I sorta feel a big Pena HR). Kazmir needs to look like he did last time out against Boston to keep Tampa in this one and give them a chance.

After game 1 is when I start to see huge mismatches from a pitching perspective, especially when you factor in splits.

 

[Big Herm]

Game 2 pitching:

Myers vs Shield

Myers - Well, as good as Philly has been at drawing walks this year, Tampa has been better. Tampas averaged 3.86 BB/G which would rank them 3rd in that statistic. Myers has walked 7 batters in 12 post-season innings...I smell trouble. Top that with his propensity to give up HRs, you could have a disaster on your hands if you are a Philly fan. Well, the fun continues beyond that.

Road Splits: 3-8, 6.21 ERA, .301 BAA
Career Indoor: 3-6 in 82 IP, 5.66 ERA, .302BAA

I just don't think Myers and his fragile mind can handle this game with so many aspects working against him.

On the other side of the ball we have Shields who was 9-2 with a 2.54 ERA and .234 ERA at Tropicana this year.

I see a major mismatch in game 2, would be interested in TB ML/RL here.

 

[Big Herm]

Gotta get some work done, but interested in some opinions on Game 3. Moyer has been on fire since the break, only dropping one game. Garza also got better from a numbers perspective post break. Being in Philly isn't good for either of their stats...both have around a 4.50 ERA respective to home/away. Garza gave up almost 3 times as many HRs on the road as opposed to home this year.This could be a good over spot, depending on the number, don't really have much of an opinion on the sides.

 

[AgainstThePublic]

Gotta get some work done, but interested in some opinions on Game 3. Moyer has been on fire since the break, only dropping one game. Garza also got better from a numbers perspective post break. Being in Philly isn't good for either of their stats...both have around a 4.50 ERA respective to home/away. Garza gave up almost 3 times as many HRs on the road as opposed to home this year.This could be a good over spot, depending on the number, don't really have much of an opinion on the sides.

Maybe I'm wrong but I am going to go on a game by game basis. I want to see how the 1st two games play out before I make a wager on either team. This may or may not be a good spot for Garza. Right now my lean is to Moyer only because he will be at home. I am assuming this series will be 1-1 when both teams head to Philly.

 

[Big Herm]

Well, quickly on game 5....

Crawford, Longoria, Pena, Upton, Aki - a combined 17/49, .346 w/ a .407 OBP vs Blanton. 6 of those 17 hits were for extra bases, Upton the only homer. These guys are pretty key I think in this game and all have seen Blanton on some level. This won't be a Blanton to Lidge passing of the ball, so one might expect to see some runs here. Blanton has actually pitched well as a Philly at home, but I think those numbers are skewed due to unfamiliarity of opposing clubs and generally weak competition. He blanked the Bucs through 7 IP, got bounced in the 2nd by ATL, got a QS against WAS where he gave up 3 UER - was hit hard by WAS the other outting, and shut down LAD and MIL pretty well.

Sonny's home/away splits not too variant. He's actually slightly better on the road. He does have excellent night splits(12-6, 3.81 ERA) which will work to his benefit given that it is a night game.

This is a tough game to get a feel for, but I would be betting against a pretty average Blanton here in favor of Sonny.

 

[Big Herm]

Maybe I'm wrong but I am going to go on a game by game basis. I want to see how the 1st two games play out before I make a wager on either team. This may or may not be a good spot for Garza. Right now my lean is to Moyer only because he will be at home. I am assuming this series will be 1-1 when both teams head to Philly.

Well, given Moyer is 6-4 at home and 10-3 on the road with about 2 points of ERA better on the road, it makes it a bit tougher for me. I just don't feel being at home is an advantage for the soft tosser. I also don't have too much faith in Garza, but he is growing on me a bit and showed a lot of maturity to close out that series.

 

[Big Herm]

My basic thought is that Myers is going to have to pitch two games in Tampa for this thing to work and I don't really see him being able to take either without a lot of help from the offense. That might be hard to do considering how dominant Shields has been all year at the Trop. Shit, Myers has given up at least 4 ER in 3 of his last 4 starts, is he really ready to face this offense? The only team he has shut down in the past month + is Milwaukee and both of those games were at home against a team that really struggles on the road, K's a lot, and does not walk much. TB K's quite a bit too, but they also get walks and I wouldn't want to be a pitcher who gives up 30+ Hrs a year facing an offense that is setting records for post-season HRs.

So, I think Philly is almost spotting TB two games. Tampa is a great home team with pitchers that excel at home. Philly is not a great road team.

Home field + Brett Myers pitching twice + a team killing the ball = victory in my eyes. Tampa will have to scrounge two wins from Kaz and Sonny or Garza, which can certainly be done.

 

[AgainstThePublic]

Yeah I agree but I would much rather take Garza at home than on the road. Just my opinion. I think the first game is huge. If TB beats Hamels this could be a short series. Right now I'm leaning towards TB to steal game 1. I say steal Game 1 because most people will favor Hamels over Kazmir. Understandable. I'll take even money with Kazmir at home any day of the week. Good thread.

 

[Big Herm]

Agree on Garza, I will be interested to see what that line comes in at and 100% agree that if Tampa can win game 1 it would make them hugely favored to take it down. Kaz is a good home pitcher and he showed up last time out. The line is probably fair for game 1, but I lean a bit towards Tampa to find a way.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

So, I think Philly is almost spotting TB two games. Tampa is a great home team with pitchers that excel at home. Philly is not a great road team.

Philly had the 2nd best road record in the league behind the Angels.

There are, however, 3 adjoiners to that - (1) LA was 6.0 games better than Philly on the road, while Philly was only 2.0 to 3.0 games better than the 4 other teams with winning road records (while they had the 2nd best road record, it wasn't a mind-numbingly outstanding one).

(2) such a great record didnt mean squat to the Angels when they couldn't win a winnable Game 4 in Boston to get to a deciding game 5 (what happened in the reg, season doesn't necessarily mean anything come the p.s.).

and (3) Philly managed that feat in the weaker league (in fact both the Angels & Phillies benefitted from OK to weakish divisions w/the imbalanced schedule to produce each league's best road record. Tampa, in baseball's toughest division, was only 1 game below .500 on the road this season (just 4.0 games behind Philly's record).

Cliff notes: Philly is a decent enough road team to say the least but Tampa, on strength of opposition basis, is at least comparable.

 

[SportsNut]

Going to add my thoughts here rather then start another thread if that's okay .


Pitching :

I see TB having a very big edge in this department . Cole Hamels has been awesome to date but I think his playoff starts provided great matchups . I cant overlook the fact he had 2 very good starts vs LAD down the stretch and another good one vs Milw . As stated there is a huge difference especially in 2008 bewteen his success vs RHB and LHBs (in 2007 as well) . The fact he is basically fastball-changeup makes it much easier for LH to face him . The team that gave him trouble especially in the HR dept( 7 in 4 starts) was the Marlins . He had some very good starts vs them where he allowed Hrs in close games . His better starts were @ Pro Player which is a park where LHP thrive see Moyer's career stats there. In his 3 IL starts he was very solid but notice his strikeouts dropped and he allowed 4Hrs in 3 starts. 21Inn 19H 9R 4Hrs 4BBs 17Ks. 13Inn 14H 8R 3Hrs 1BB 12 K in 07IL . Now I mentioned the marlins because I felt all along they were a Junior version of TB .

In short I think TB is a much tougher task then LAD and Milw because of lineup makeup . Especially with TB having the mix of LHBs not just sluggers . Also Hamels was not very good past 2 seasons in games started INDOORS. In 2007 they came @ Miller and Minute Maid. Actually career wise he has 3 @ Minute maid and 3 @ Miller plus 1 @ Chase in 2006 .
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Brett Myers obviously a new pitcher after the recall from the demotion and improved greatly on the road. Again very telling though is how these Philly SP did vs FLA IMO . In Sept he was solid but allowed 4 runs and then was shelled down in FLA . He was good vs Milw and then medicore to poor vs LAD again teams he had success vs in the reg season. Myers allowed 4runs in 23 inn down the stretch vs Milw and LAD. On the road while not as nearly as bad as the 1st H of 087 he still sees a significant dropoff IMO. Again pitching INDOORS is an issue as well -
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Jaime Moyer - His 1st start was really a bad 1st inning while the 2nd start was a meltdown . Considering he exceled on the road that is real troublesome since he will be at home for Game 3. Also factor in L2 season Moyer is 2-5 when he starts in IL with so-so numbers in 07 but couple rough starts in 07 with a solid one. I think the fact TB has hit the knuckleball so well makes this another favorable matchup especially with Moyer struggling in general at home and in the playoffs. I say the knuckleball is possibly a good hint because you need to have patience and wait on the ball be willing to drive it the other way. I said TB had hit Wakefield alot harder past 5 outings and did a very nice job in the playoffs plus they hit Dickey up in Seattle . Aybar crushed the knuckleballers in 08 with 3 Hrs in 2 games . So I think that could translate into success vs a guy like Moyer throwing 83 MPH with breaking stuff and offspeed stuff in the 60's.

Joe Blanton-
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16>Career vs. TB</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>41.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>57</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>30</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>28</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>15</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>28</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6.05</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.73</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.331</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Nothing more to say really . Funny but Blanton as well had some good success late in the year vs Milw and LAD.

So Phillies SP had previous success vs BOTH MILW and LAD lineups late in the year while now for the most part while TB is an unfamailiar opponent there is alot of things hinting at the staff struggling .

TB SP in a nutshell -
Kazmir is hard to figure he started real well and suprising was string a bunch of 7 inn starts . His issues with pitch counts had really limited him to a 6 inn SP which the final few months he became once again . Obviously a high ceiling guy I only expect 6 innings from him when I research a game . Kaz much better at Night in 2008 which seems like alot of these SP have issues in day starts .

When Kaz starts at TB in 2008 including the 2 playoff starts his team is 14-2 . He had 7 starts where he allowed no runs and another where he allowed 1 run (only counting 5+ inn ). I think he will build off the start at Fenway . A sharp Kaz is just as good if not better then Hamels but he hasnt been sharp much in the 2nd H really since losing the game @ LAA. Kaz unlike Hamels is very tough on LHBs holding them to a 198 clip this year and 212 career. Kaz though has not be overly successful past 2 years in IL basically producing medicore starts .

James Shields was 11-1 1st 12 at Trop losing 2-1 to NYY . Then he finished 2-2 L4 reg season one a loss Halladay who had struggled and finally beat TB for th3 1st time that start. He went 1-2 in the playoffs tossing a solid game vs WSox , a very good game he lost 2-0 to Boston but being medicore at best in game 6 vs Boston . So 14-5 at home in 2008 plus he won his last 4 starts of 2007 making him 19-5 L24 at Trop plus off consecutive losing starts ... Shields is his best at Trop sporting an ERA 2 runs lower especially when its day start . Most important is that he is basically neutral vs RH and LH's. His avg start at Trop was 7+inn not quite 7.1 and runs allowed avged 2.5 but that is including unearned runs as well.

Matt Garza is a case of extremes and his 2008 is in alot ways the exact opposite of 2007. he has enjoyed EXTREME success vs certain teams namely Texas and Toronto. He also tended to have an outsanding performance where he didnt allow then a RUN then followed it by allowing 4+ the next start . His success wasnt so much Trop Field as it was Turf or indoors(usually turf) .

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16>Turf</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>18</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>18</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>116.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>97</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>36</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>32</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>35</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>80</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2.48</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.14</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.229</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



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Only 6-11 in 17 away starts his rays lost four by 1 run . Garza like Shields is neutral vs RH and LHB's . He though is basically a guy who was very good vs some teams and not so good vs others with few in bewteen. He struggled @ STL in IL then bounced back with some excellent work over 3 starts especially vs TB . Only 11 hits and 5 runs in 22innings with 4bb 21Ks although he really owned FLA . The good is he is off consecutive good starts vs Boston and you wonder if he is now heating up again at the right time . Since the AS break he was very solid on the road including the playoffs with 2 hiccups @ KC and @ SEA suprisingly with a medicore outing @ WSox in the playoffs. The good outings saw only 8 runs in 41 ining but in fairness 2 @ Tor which he owned like no SP in the history of the game IMO over 1 season . I think looking at FLA and Texas teams with fress wingers are ones he excels vs .

Andy Sonnastine has a high hits per innings ratio but really under the radar IMO . The good news is he does better on the road and at night . Not including hsi 2 playoff starts which I consider good at Boston was near excellent till the pen struggled in an unfavorable spot for TB trying to sweep @ Fenway .

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Tremendous improvement in the 2nd H of the year reflecting the SP he is at this moment . The overall numbers dont mean much . When you shave 47 points off your BAA thats significant improvement . He was 5-0 in IL play and won all 3 on the road @ Fla , Pitt and STL. 20 inn 19h 4 r 1hr 7bb 15Ks away in IL .

After starting 7-1 on the road he went 2-6 to finish but is 2-0 in the playoffs . So 11-7 away all year .

So TB matches up really well IMO 1-4 SP wise .

Now the Bullpen some people here think Phillies pen is even remotely as good as TB seems like a pipe dream to me . Sure they had a few rough patches recently but this unit was NEAR perfect for what seemed like for ever .

The Three Amigos balfour , Howell and Wheeler produced retard stats in 08 . Throw Edwin Jackson who looks good so far as the long reliever against JA Happ and David price earning a more prominent role with better stuff then just about every reliever in either pen the phils dont have that X factor. So while Phillie unit of Romero , MAdson and Lidge have done real well I dont think reg season they matched TB effectiveness even with Lidges retarded save rate . Then TB has CHad Bradford as a luxury and even Trevor Miller who would be like a Scott Eyre type IMO. Bradford 6caree innings vs Philly only 1 hit and no runs along with a 2.12 ERA in 2008 .

Its fair to be concerned about Balfour's recent struggles vs Boston BUT his 08 season was one for the ages :
58 INN 28H 10R 3Hrs 24BB 82 K .143 BAA 1.54 ERA 0.89 WHIP

In his defense Balfour saw alot of Boston in the reg season with 8 appearances and 10+ inn for a guy with just 58 all season . So Boston seeing him day after day in the playoffs were very familiar with him which Philly is NOT( he struggled vs Boston in app2 and after ). Regardless of split stat all his were down right dominant .
IL Play : 9.1 INN 2 H 0R 2BB 14Ks (cubs , Fla , Hous and pitt)

JP Howell thrived in 2008 probably getting better as the season wore on only 9 runs in the 2ndH allowed but only 5 earned in nearly 34 innings. In IL play 11.2 inn 8 4r/2er 5bb 12Ks . Again while he struggled some vs Boston it was a divisional opponent they faced in the ALCS and he pitched in 6 games that series it wasnt until they saw him nearly everyday when he struggled. He had 9 appearances vs Boston in 2008 . Equally important he was equally tough vs RH vs LH .
89.1 INN 62 H 29R 22 ER 6Hrs 39BB 92Ks.194 BAA 2.22ERA 1.13 WHIP

Dan Wheeler - of great importance I think is David price making Wheeler more likely to picth just the 9th inning . remember he shut Bos down for 3+ inn to give his team a chance to win be down 1-0 in the series . While he allowed the big blow by Ortiz its hard to fault him when Boston was buikding so much momentum in a must win spot . Wheeler is death on RH so dont be suprised to see Price face Utley or Howard in late spots that are big. In fairness Wheeler has struggled at times vs Philly allowing alot of longballs .

66.1 inn 44h 25r 23 ER 10Hrs (ISSUE) 22bbs 53ks 3.12 ERA 0.99 WHIP .183BAA

Now Wheeler is not a power pitcher but more avg reliever fastball /good slider.

So TB's 4 top options hold opponents to less to .200 BAA which is huge in the playoffs IMO because they dont allow many hits .

In Philly's pen:
Lidge was awesome in 2008 basically mirroring what Balfour did in a setup role with the added pressure of closing games. I think Balfour was slightily better in the reg season but Lidge was the closer so more important role outweighing his slightily worse stats . I think career wise there is a slight droppoff for him in IL play in general looking at overall stats.

Romero has been solid but he is not JP Howell a guy who can pitch 2 innings while getting either RH or LH out . Romero is basically a situational LH and little more. However he is SICK vs LHB allowing only a .102 BAA something UNHEARD of IMO. RH though were at 282 ( which is misleading cause his WHIP was 2.05)while Howell held LH to under 200 and RH to a 212 clip I believe. To his credit though ever since coming to Philly he has been the best situational LH in the game and he could be useful since TB has some LHBs stacked near the top of the lineup.

The 3rd Amigo in Philly is Ryan Madson . Who technically is the setup guy like Balfour but I did compare Balfour to Lidge. So really I did that because Madson to me is Dan Wheeler (ish) . So the roles are different on each team but feel even if Madson is neutral to Wheeler which I wouldnt really agree to due to the difference in WHIP and BAA as Madson held hitters to only 254 (55 pts worse then Wheeler) . Important though is Madson caught fire in SEPT and it carried over in the playoffs through 9 innings. The interesting thing about Madson is when he is sharp and gets to pitch 2 innings he is real solid which his 3 two inn stints in SEPT are why his month stats were so good.

Eyre , Durbin , Condrey and Happ are mostly marginable relievers IMO on teh scale of Bradford and trevor Miller . I would say though that I like JA Happ alot but the fact he has 1 3 inning stint in basically a monthis unfair to him but if he is effective if used that is impressive for a young kid IMO. I think he could be very useful in the series . Eyre did well in Philly but clearly Philly doesnt even trust him look at when he is used and he was terrible on the road plus struggled vs TB in his AL days. STruggled as in 30 hits and 12 bbs in 19.1 inn = YIKES! While Durbin had solid stats in 08 he is just a decent reliever at best IMO. Witness the 311 BAA vs LHP and thats an isssue vs TB. So he is good vs RHB at .211 but alos 285 BAA away which is 50pts worse then home. In 10.1 IL inn he allowed 10 h 7r only 4er . Most of Durbin success was vs ATL , NYM and FLA. 32 inn 21H 8R 6ER 14bb 28K vs the rest 55.2 inn 60 H 25r 22 ER and forgot his home ERA was 1.88 to about 4.40 away.

So while Phillies closer is better and there top 3 comes close to one of the best pen trios of 08 I think Price is a huge exfactor and Bradford if needed to get a key out is better then what Philly offers . Doubt any of these gusy see work outside of losing games is my point .....

Some notes I have seen on various sites -
Hamels allowed a .302 BAA on 1st pitch in the reg season throwing mostly fastballs but has changed his approach and pitched what is referred to backwards starting soft to set up the fastball rather then vice versa(establishing the fastball to setup the offspeed shit) . So could we see alot of 1st pitch curveballs ? Like every get curveball pitcher when its dropping below the knees its near unhittable . For you baseball players out there I am sure if you pitched the old 12 to 6 comment or pulling down on the shade to get the sharpest downward break especially helps the changeup as well keeping it down.


LINEUPS / BENCH -

C- Navarro vs Ruiz: Clearly Navarro is the better hitter . He is a SWH who basically is better vs RHP but neutral home and away . His stats are much better batting 7th and 8th in the lineup and he hits .314 with RISP. Mix in the fact he throws out 38% of baserunners and pretty one sided no matter how much Philly wants to praise Ruiz IMO.

1b: Pena vs Howard:Two slugging LHs who can be neutralized by LHP basically Pena is a JR version of Howard IMO who tends t run rather Hot or Cold rather then consistent. Howard is a beast but TB has a smiliar version in Pena. Pena has been much better in the postseason and while LHs neutralize both the Rays faced a ton this year watering down his stats IMO (nearly 33% of his abs vs LHP) . Remember though LH hit Hamels well and hit Hrs while Moyer is throwing softly.Howard also faced a ton of LH but Kaz is tough on them in comparison to Phillies SP. Pena injured had 120less atbats with near similiar production when prorated . He would have about 39-40Hrs and 128-130RBi' short of Howards stats but not by much . With similiar 07 numbers Pena's OPS was much better nearly by 60pts

2b: Iwamura vs Utley : Unfair to compare these two and Iwamura is a solid all around player but not spectular . Utley is one of the elite 2nd base of the current ERA and simply the best Philly . Prefer to look at young stud vs stud and compare Utley with Longoria despite the position difference. One blemish is Utley started like a beast and slowly faded and never was the superstar of April and May IMO again even in the postseason to date.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl>G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>AB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>2B</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>3B</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>RBI</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>CS</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>AVG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>OBP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SLG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>OPS</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> March</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.667</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.500</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.667</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2.167</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> April</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>27</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>108</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>23</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>38</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>10</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>10</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>21</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>11</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>15</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.352</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.427</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.741</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.168</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> May</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>29</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>108</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>20</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>28</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>26</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>14</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>19</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.259</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.354</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.537</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.891</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> June</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>25</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>94</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>15</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>25</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>16</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>11</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>17</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.266</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.364</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.511</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.874</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> July</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>24</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>97</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>15</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>27</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>10</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>17</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.278</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.336</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.443</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.780</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> August</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>29</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>109</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>17</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>32</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>12</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>14</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>20</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.294</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.412</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.477</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.889</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> September</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>24</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>88</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>21</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>25</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>17</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>16</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.284</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.369</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.443</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.812</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18> </TD><TD> </TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>AB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>2B</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>3B</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>RBI</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>CS</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>AVG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>OBP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SLG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>OPS</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Pre-All Star</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>94</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>364</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>68</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>106</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>25</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>25</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>69</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>39</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>59</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>10</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.291</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.372</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.582</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.955</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Post-All Star</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>65</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>243</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>45</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>71</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>16</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>35</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>25</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>45</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.292</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.390</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.465</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.855</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Last 4 months 280 avg 14hrs and 55rbi in 388abs vs 305 18hr 47rbi in 216abs 1st 2 months. For Iwamure he Ks alot but was about 21-67 in IL this year . While Utley was 1/13 vs Boston and 12/43 the rest of IL just 1 HR and 5 rbis (13/56).

3B: Longoria vs Feliz/Dobbs: THIRD BASE- Thought this summed up best
All Evan Longoria has done this year is hit 27 home runs in an abbreviated rookie season, make the All-Star team, swat six more home runs over the first two rounds of the playoffs and generally proceed with the demeanor of a player twice his age. If Longoria is hot -- and it's difficult to imagine a scenario in which he won't be -- then Pedro Feliz simply can't match him offensively. Known primarily for his defense at third base, Feliz has endured a disappointing season at the plate. I like Dobbs when facing a RHB he is a very solid hitter IMO.

Right now Longoria is a more dangerous hitter then Utley . Overal the season stats were similiar but also Longoria was injured and called up early on in the season so he has 160 less abs . He is much better on the road especially on grass . He has progressed as the season went on vs LHSP after a slow start and also was medicore byhis standards after returning from injurybut stepped up in the postseason despite some struggles with Boston past few games. Longoria's biggest weakness is RISP at 241 but Utley was only 271. Take out May for Feliz and he was pretty terrible . He struggles on the road and his 600 something OPS vs RHP tells m he should ride the pine for Dobbs vs RHP .....

SS: Bartlett vs Rollins; Jimmy had a terrible year by his standards 277 11 hr 59rbi but sick 47/50 on SBs. He did battle some injuries and missed 25 games . he scored just 76 times though which was 60 less then 07 and his lowest ever though had 150atbats less and career low abs as well still 556. Rollins has been clutch in teh postseason but still inconsistent. Insane drop offensively from past 2 years . Bartlett is like your 80's SS he plays good defense and he did hit nearly 290 this year with little pop. Good thing is 379 vs LH compared to 248 vs RHP. Bartlett tore it up going 55-156 to finish up AUG and Sept so very under the radar .

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl>G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>AB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>2B</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>3B</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>RBI</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>CS</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>AVG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>OBP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SLG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>OPS</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Pre-All Star</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>77</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>273</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>24</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>70</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>20</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>14</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>41</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>18</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.256</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.299</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.293</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.592</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Post-All Star</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>51</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>181</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>24</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>60</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>17</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>17</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>28</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.331</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.374</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.464</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.838</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Rollins huge drop on the road as well:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl>G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>AB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>2B</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>3B</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>RBI</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>CS</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>AVG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>OBP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SLG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>OPS</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Home</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>68</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>264</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>42</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>83</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>20</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>26</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>31</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>19</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>30</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.314</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.393</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.477</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.871</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Away</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>69</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>292</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>34</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>71</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>18</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>33</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>27</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>36</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>17</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.243</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.307</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.401</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.708</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


OF: Crawford , Upton , Gross-Floyd(really DH not OF) -Baldelli(basically rotate bewteen RF and DH)
vs Burrell , Victorino , Werth

Simple here . Vrawford great all around player when healthy and well he looks healthy in the postseason. Pat the Bat is one of the premier sluggers in the game buthe is just that the typical streaky slugger who runs either real hot or real cold. Despite 30+Hrs only 86 rbi and 250 avg but 100BBs to his credit . Good news is Pat the Bat crushed it indoors this year and was better away and much better suprisngly considering the bandbox. Victorino has been a version of Carl Crawford probably much like the Howard-Pena comparison here . While Victorino has been great so far hard to argue Upton hasnt been better. Victorino in IL 12/47 0hr and 1 rbi. Upton is s uperstar in the making while Victorino is more like a star in the making . In RF withthe baldelli-Gross platoon there isnt much going on so while Philly has the edge with Werth out there its prety equal vs LHP IMO when Baldelli plays . While Gross hasnt done much he is at least a LH vs facing a rH unlike Werth facing a like side but his stats were solid .



DH- Aybar vs ? Stairs maybe ?
Well all know about Matt Stairs the 40yr old swing from the heels Canadian but what about Aybar who came out of nowehere this year and did well replacing Pena at 1st for a stretch. Aybra 367 2hrs in the postseason so far BUT he is aLHP specialist ! his numbers stunk before he got reg time when he started getting the regular playing time they improved greatly but he was terrible for time vs RHP but now in the playoffs getting the nod nearly everyday he has prodcued again.

Bench- Both teams have some depth and really thats for the NL parks..Jenkins could DH as well and he slipped considerably from his MIL days .

Comments:
For those interested I like TB alot in Game 1 only concerned with some game 1 issues for TB vs a good game 1 team in Philly but off a long ass layoff .

For the series prefer TB -150 but look to play TB +330 in 6 games and TB sweep +850 with some mild issue in 5 games prop but its hardto get me off the 6 game prop as the best one to play . I am fairly certain we dont see 7 games . The reason why I am not big on TB in 5 is because you have Hamels at home so if they get to that point I could see them winning with Shields at home in Game 6 to close althoug he didnt do it vs Boston . I think if TB gets Game 1 a sweep is not out of the question . Problem is TB has really struggled vs LH on the road so that could give Moyer an edge of some sort ...Also by out of the box pick for MVP is Willie Aybar at +1700 a guy who mashes vs LHP will probably see Hamels twice and Moyer if he can near single handly lead TB to a win of Hamels and mash Moyer he will get alot of votes IMO . This comment only solidified it ---Since 2007, Aybar is slugging .460 against top-tier southpaws. Hamels is a changeup specialist, but Aybar has hit .450 this season against lefty changeups with five extra-base hits and only two strikeouts and remember what I said about Aybar vs knucklers and Moyer being like a knucklerballer in a sense .....My #2 MVP pick is BJ Upton and #3 David Price .

:cheers:Good Luck all in your choices !:shake:


As I said I think Phillies play vs the Florida Marlins is a key comparision here . I also think Phillies alarming stats vs the AL should be noticed . They were going through a rough stretch at the time and that may have exaggerated the numbers but basically the stats suck. Hamels had 2 of the wins big deal. He beat an LAA team who was so-so at the time vs LHP 3-2 at home and won @ texas who was so-so vs LHSP . TB will be a tougher task then both . Think TB 12-6 IL vs Philliy 4-11


:cheers:

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

wow

 

[BetCrimes1984]

3 stat tidbits I didnt want to start a thread specifically for -

AL teams are 10-1 SU the last 11 WS Game 2s. Randy Johnson in a home game the only instance of an AL loss over this period.

There has been at least 1 Under result through the first 2 games in 18 of the last 22 WS (since the CS games were extended to a best of 7 format in 1985). Thats a rate of 81.8%.

However, 2 of the 4 exceptions (2 Overs the first 2 games) had their initial games played on artificial turf (Minnesota & Toronto), as the case is here.

There has been at least 1 Over result through the first 2 games in 11 of the last 13 WS (since the divisional series were introduced in 1995). Thats a rate of 74.7%.

The 2 exceptions invovled the NL winning the WS.

 

[AgainstThePublic]

Damn Sport. I think you covered everything. lol

Agree with TB in 6. I'll be on TB series and TB Game 1.

 

[Big Herm]

Excellent stuff guys, especially that novel Nut. BC - you are right about PHI being comparably one of the better road teams in the league, but as you noted their competition wasn't quite the same. This is really not an indictment of the Phils, moreover of the lack of opportunity they have had to prove themselves.

I know I started a post, but can't remember if I finished it somewhere.

28% of PHI's wins came against the Braves and the Nats - these two teams are pretty terrible. The Mets were hampered with injuries all year and FLA is a team that has some fight, but is really not ready to step up and take this division. Tampa winning the AL East was a much more impressive task, taking down teams that have recently won world series and facing three teams consistently that finished the season with 86+ wins. The NL West is a joke and the rest of the NL is just not up to snuff with AL teams...hey, it is what it is, right?

I think Smokedawg called Nut out as a "Mets fan" for not properly respecting Philly, but up to this point Philly has only proved that they can beat teams that rose to the top of a mediocre division and/or league. It's just a fact that the AL dominated the NL in interleague and that both of these teams have interleague records that coincide with this. PHI couldn't even take a series from Oakland or Texas, two of the worst teams in the AL. They also lost series to Toronto and Boston, teams that finished behind TB. Sure, it's a small sample size, but there's more to it than that.

 

[SportsNut]

<LI class=more>Phillies are 17-36 in their last 53 interleague games. <LI class=more>Phillies are 4-9 in their last 13 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. <LI class=more>Phillies are 3-8 in their last 11 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter. <LI class=more>Phillies are 6-17 in their last 23 interleague road games. <LI class=more>Phillies are 8-23 in their last 31 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.<LI class=more>Rays are 57-19 in their last 76 home games
Philly was 4-11 in IL beating Purcey and Bartolo colon in two of them Padilla and Greg Smith the other two.

10 3 5 Tor @ Home
8 0 4 Boston @ Home
1 2 2 LAA @ Home
2 4 0 @ Oak
7 8 1 @ Texas

57 runs in 15 games

So 5 games they scored more then 4 and 3 started by COlon , Purcey and Gabbard with the 5 @ Tor when a rain dealy took the SP out after 2 inninmgs. So Paddilla was the only legit SP they hit .

Also the idea of Philly being a good road team at 44-37 is somewhat of a joke. Did we all forgot that Philly went 9-0 @ ATL ? Plus 6-3 @ Wash . As bad as Seattle was you had teams like ATL , Wash -SD and for a time even SF who were just as bad and 4 of them in the NL is more then 1 though OAK applied for a time. Also TB was only 4 games worse .

I have Philly at 17-25 vs the better NL teams such as NYM , Fla , Houston , Cubs , Milw , LAD and Zona....helped by a 6-4 run last 10...plus 3-2 in the postseason and 2-4 in IL. TB was 6-3 away in IL and while they had issues on the road at points in the year they also had to overcome terrible history at Fenway and NYY . Which after anothe slow start @ Fenway nearly swept them there in the postseason . So TB is a team that continues to improve . TB in the 2nd H was 8-9 @ Tor , Bos , NYY , Wsox and Texas plus 3-2 in postseason .

:cheers:


<LI class=more>Finished the LINEUP parts above as well