Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
OK, so if you missed the AFC version of this, I’m insulted and apparently you don’t love me anymore which, frankly, is rude. So thanks for being a jerk. Also, you missed some good stuff, including a Covid rant that nobody wanted to read, so there was that.
Also, I didn’t say this in the last one, but these threads aren’t just here so I can hear myself type. I mean, they are, I now have a mechanical keyboard and I like the sound *clackity clack, clackity clack*. But they’re more here so you can add to them. If I’m wrong, or if you have a better read on a team, dive in. Not with 4K words of your own, of course, people don’t even want that from me, but with your own nuggets that can help everybody make money.
“But Joe,” I hear you say. Oh yes, I hear you. “But Joe, why should we trust you? Aren’t you the guy who once promised ‘an HJ out back’ if Crystal Palace lost to Brighton?” Yes. I am. And then, after they lost, I lied and told Lex, KJ, Wise, and Cub that Steed sprained his wrist at an event earlier in the day and couldn’t make it. But in fairness to me, that was a solid pick, I have since taken responsibility for my actions, and apologized.
Also, remember, CTG isn’t just about making fun of Guaranteed. First of all, he’s been working out, you don’t even know. Second, there’s a pill for Peyronie's disease now, so stop making jokes about how there’s “always money in the banana stand.” That’s bullying and it’s not cool. (I’ve got your back, ‘Teed.) Anyway, the rest of you should feel empowered to actually get in here and have your say.
And now, onward an upward with something to keep you busy until the games start this weekend.
THE NFC CENTRAL
Green Bay
Last year, I loved this team. Come December, I had futures on them to win the NFC and the SB. And did I hedge to guarantee a profit before the TB game? No, I most certainly did not, but thanks for bringing it up, Shaker. Always good to see you.
Point is, I say that to let you know that I really don’t hate this team, I just hate this year’s version of this team. This team feels a ‘lot’ to me like last year’s Pittsburgh team. Remember how Pittsburgh ran out to 11-0 and yet nobody really believed in them? This team feels a lot like that. Because as good as they may get, their record is likely going to be inflated by their terrible division and games against bad teams.
First off, the biggest problem GB faces hasn’t ever really been Rogers or the offense, it’s that every time they get deep into the playoffs, their defense decides it’s time to give up 40 points. Does anybody really think they’ve done enough to fix that?
There is a chance that Rodgers’ version of the Last Dance works out. And I do envision myself betting on this team at times during the season. Not to start off though, they lost their starting center to free agency and David Bakhtiari is out for the first six weeks. Their first game is on a neutral field vs. NO which may help, but I need a week or two to see if this team can block anybody before I bet on them. Thankfully for them, their division is so bad, and I still think there will be value on this team over the course of say the first third or half of the year.
If they can beat NO this weekend, they should be 2-0 before losing to SF in SF, revenge be dammed. But then they have a run of really winnable games Pitt, @Cincy, @chicago, Wash, @AZ. That’s where I see some value.
Minny
Speaking of teams I don’t have a lot of faith in, hello Minnesota. This is a team I’ve seen football types talking up as a sleeper this year, and I don’t buy it. First off, their entire QB room is a fucking Covid-cluster. Beyond Kirk Cousins, rookie Kellen Mond has had Covid not once, but twice, and unless I missed it, he still refuses to get vaccinated.
I personally don’t think any team has to forfeit a game this year because of Covid, there’s too much money involved. But if they do, my odds-on favorite to cause it is Minnesota.
Beyond that, I may be missing it, but I don’t see this team as particularly good. Here’s where I may be wrong, though. I said from the outset that I believe today’s NFL is about three things, a good QB, a line that can block for him, and a coach that isn’t going to lose you games. Cousins is good for the occasional great game and generally ‘good enough,’ and I don’t think Zimmer is bad. But their line was leaky last year.
Show me you can block, show me you can not give up 28+ a game, then maybe I will consider betting you until your entire team has to quarantine.
Minny has a really interesting schedule to start the season. On the road for two (Cincy and AZ, which feels like 1-1) then home for three (Sea, Cle, Det) before going to Carolina and then getting a somewhat early bye in Week 7. I can see 3-3 there. I could also see worse. But I think those games should give you a really good sense of what this team is.
If I’m right, and they are 3-3 coming out of the bye, they may set up as a go against team later in the year because their schedule only gets worse as the season goes on. And with an early bye, I could see this team wearing down.
Chicago
There are a couple of really poorly kept secrets in the NFL. Colin Kaepernick was blackballed, they call Nick Foles ‘Big Dick Nick’ for a reason, and the Chicago offensive line sucks Mouse nuts. To me, Chicago right out of the gate is a bet-against team, and by that I mean in Week 1. This is purely an anti-Andy Dalton play.
My speculation is that when Chicago signed him, they told him he would be the opening day starter—as they were very public about. But now that he’s basically been out played in the pre-season, the only question is, how long does that last. There’s a chance it only lasts the first half of the first game.
But my hope is, it lasts the whole first game and the Rams sack Dalton like seven times. Because I’m teasing LAR here. Top tier DL vs. one of the worst OLs in the league? I’ll take it.
Once they go to Fields, I think things change for Chicago. Sadly, it mostly means Fields may be running for his life much of the season.
To me, they look like 2-2 to start the season, away losses at LA and Cleveland (WK3), home wins vs. Cincy (WK2) and Detroit (WK4). Then they go to Vegas which will be a good trip for their fans, esp. if they can win, because things really get rough. GB, @TB, SF. That’s where I think it gets bad for this team as Chicago is rated with one of the hardest schedules in the NFL this year. That sucks for them, because if their OL is as bad as advertised, that defense might be good, but it will just wear down.
Good news for Chicago though, the White Sox are going to be in the playoffs. So let’s fucking go.
Detroit
Not since Hunt took a senior position in the Whitmer administration has there been this little hope in Michigan. Which, by the way, is really unfair. Hunt once hid a body in Windsor, OT for a heretofore unnamed member of the Pistons and suddenly it’s like he’s not doing enough for the state? It’s never enough for you ingrates, is it?
Anyway, this is another team in this terrible division I don’t believe in. What have they given us to hold onto? Jared Goff is apparently so much of a prick the Rams almost drove him to Motown themselves. They got rid of probably their best weapon in Golladay, I’m not sure if I remember the last time their defense was good, and they should go what 2-4 in the division at best?
Also, the start of their season sucks. SF, @GB, Baltimore, @Chi, @Minny. This team is going to be worn out quick. I don’t like how any of this sets up for this team this year at all. Honestly, their whole season sucks. How are you this bad the year before and end up with like the second hardest schedule in the league the next season? Be Detroit and have the league not care about you is the answer to that, I guess.
THE NFC SOUTH
Tampa
Sort of like KC, what’s there really to say here. This team is not only good, they’re returning their whole team. Oh, and They’re 100% vax’d. (We know how Brady voted so this tells you where he’s at with regard to winning.) Oh, and also, historically, year two is when you really finally wrap your head around all of an Arians’ offense.
Now, that may be less true here as Brady reportedly convinced Bruce to change some things up mid-way through last season and that was partially responsible for the Bucs ironing out their issues. But still, to me this team feels a lot like that NE team from a few years ago that put up 1,000 points and almost went undefeated.
Not that I think TB is going 17-0, I imagine they win 13, 14 something like that. But I do think they may score a ton of points this year. Because they have the three things I look for (QB, OL, coach) and one of the top three or so rated WR corps in the league. Also, their DL is strong enough that this offense is probably going to get the ball back early and often.
You may have to lay bigger numbers with this team because they’re ‘the’ team this year, but it may be worth it unless they prove they can’t keep the back door shut.
The league also did them a favor with this schedule, imo. It’s rated one of the easiest in the league. HOW DO YOU WIN IT ALL AND GET … whatever.
Now, maybe the league didn’t know Dallas would have issues Week 1, but TB starts at home, then has 10 days before yet another home game (Atlanta—good luck, Matt Ryan). Then the real season for them starts, @LAR, @NE. They basically have two tune-up games to get themselves ready. Everything sets up well for this team, tbh, including their bye which is sort of perfectly placed dead in the middle of the season in Week 9 and the fact that they may get to throttle down at the very end of the season based on their opponents.
Oooh, one other thing on TB which is as much about the league as it is about them. One reason we should have known that everyone who wasn’t sold on Brady + TB (*raises hand*) would be wrong is to look at scoring before he arrived.
Normally I don’t go back and look at the year before with some numbers because teams change, schedules change, all that. But overall numbers can add some value. For example, with Winston at QB, TB threw for a ton of TDs and passing yards. Once you removed all Winston’s turnovers, why would we think that TB wouldn’t improve pretty substantially? Because Tom’s deep ball had tailed off? Maybe, but they ADDED weapons on the outside.
Anyway, it might be interesting to note that the top six scoring teams last season were:
I included KC there because NO had a significant change at QB this year—to Jameis Winston, because of course. Point is, remove NO if you like because changing your QB is a big deal and adds uncertainty. Of the remaining five teams, only GB seems to have had significant changes to the offense (losing their center in free agency and an all-pro for the first six weeks). Everyone else has either kept the band together or improved on offense. So how much should we really expect the top scoring teams in the league to change from last year to this?
Carolina
Here is where I think I differ from a lot of people. I think Carolina comes in second in this division. And, oddly, it’s not even because I have a ton of faith in Sam Darnold. They get McCaffrey back who this team runs through and it’s their second year under the same coach. There’s just something about this team I like.
Also, I think the rest of the division outside of Tampa takes a step back this year. But again, maybe I’m wrong. And I’m not saying I’m going to be looking to back this team out of the gate. I’d like to watch them a little, see what they’ve got.
I will, however, likely take a shot on the over in their first game. It’s not a big number, both QB’s are going to have something to prove. No matter if the game gets out of hand one way or another, I don’t think anybody shuts it down. Especially if it’s Carolina who’s up, if you’re the Jets, who cares if you lose by 20, you need to get Wilson pass attempts.
Also, let’s look at Carolina’s schedule. First, they get the NFC East, second they don’t face TB until very late in the season—including Week 18 in which TB might be resting their starters.
Here’s how they start: NYJ, NO, @Houston, @Dallas, Philly. It’s possible this team is 4-1 to start the season. In fact, the only reason I haven’t talked myself into their season over 7.5 is I’m not really crazy about their matchups mid-season: @NYG, @Miami, @Arizona, @Buffalo. Put those games at home and they might be 3-1. On the road they might go 0-4. Then you add in NE, Washington, and TB twice, and that eight might be too close for comfort.
New Orleans
OK, so I just said I think Carolina comes in second in this division—and I said Carolina may not get to eight wins. Meanwhile, the Saints’ season win total is nine. So …??
Ah ha, but the Saints’ season win total is also juiced to the under which means at least someone who knows someone agrees with me. Naturally I just assume it’s Carolina Blue who is infamous for moving lines (and hips) from Tupelo to Carteret County. But tying up money on -140 for an entire season isn’t something I’m interested in, so I’ll pass. But I am going to say, I think this team regresses this year. Which is funny seeing as how they now have a QB who can throw more than 30 yards down the field. And I do think that will help.
But, they’re without Michael Thomas for the foreseeable future, like six weeks into the season future. That’s a problem. Also, this team was tops in the NFC last year in terms of turnover differential, ahead of both TB and GB. As this is something that generally evens out from year to year, this isn’t going to help NO at all.
Also, like Carolina, I hate the Saints’ schedule.
Check this out. They lose their opening home game to climate change and will now get GB on a neutral, grass field in Jax. Not cool. If GB’s OL was healthy, you’d have to assume this was a loss. As it is, GB is still -4.5. But wait, it gets worse. After this they go to Carolina, then they go to NE. They do get the Giants at home and if they’re 0-3 this should be a great spot to come back with them. But then they have to go to Washington before an early season bye. They also have road games @Seattle, @Tenny, @Philly, and obviously TB x2.
Thanks, but I hate it. Pencil me in for that home game vs. the Giants, but everywhere else to start the season after Week 1, I’ll be looking to go against this team.
Here, however, is how I could be way wrong about NO. When last we saw Jameis Lanaed Winston starting, he was throwing for 5K yards and 33 TD passes in a single season. There’s no reason to think that arm isn’t there any more. And there’s no real reason to think his weapons here are any worse than they were in TB. Obviously Alvin Karmra is better than anyone TB was putting out there. So, in theory, Winston could easily throw for 2+ TDs a game this year and a bunch of yards. It could happen, and if it does, they easily could beat me and take second in this division without much of an issue.
Atlanta
OK, full disclosure, I love Kyle Pitts. I was terrified Jerry Jones was going to find a way to get this guy and have him haunt the Eagles for the rest of my days. I don’t hate him in Atlanta, but I also don’t think Atlanta is in a position to maximize this guy’s talent yet. Atlanta seems pretty obviously in ‘hey, we’re rebuilding, but don’t tell anybody, OK?’ mode.
And that’s fine, all teams need that. But if you’re betting on Atlanta right now, to me what you’re betting on is Matt Ryan to get you back door covers. Which might work! There are teams every year that do this. Jax was 1-15 SU last year but 7-9 ATS, the Bengals last year were 4-11-1 SU, but 9-7 ATS. Both the Broncos and Panthers (5-11) were that same 9-7 ATS. Those are huge swings from SU to ATS. So I won’t be totally shocked if that’s what we get from Atlanta this year.
But in terms of winning, Atlanta also gave up a good number of sacks last year. Now that you strip some weapons from Ryan, does that just get worse because fewer dudes can get open? It’s all question marks with me and this team.
Hey Joe, how’s their schedule? Oooh, I’m glad you asked. Not great! They get Philly at home in Week 1 which I, as a Bird fan, am hoping will be a fun, high scoring game. But win or lose it then gets pretty real for Atlanta: @TB, @NYG, home for Washington and the Jets. But then they get an early bye.
If this team is as bad as I think they may be, the timing of that bye could also be really bad for their defense. And there is a game late in the season I’m looking at. Granted, they may be 14 point dogs—but they travel to SF immediately after two division games, Tampa at home and @Carolina. This may be a great spot to go against them.
Also, I didn’t say this in the last one, but these threads aren’t just here so I can hear myself type. I mean, they are, I now have a mechanical keyboard and I like the sound *clackity clack, clackity clack*. But they’re more here so you can add to them. If I’m wrong, or if you have a better read on a team, dive in. Not with 4K words of your own, of course, people don’t even want that from me, but with your own nuggets that can help everybody make money.
“But Joe,” I hear you say. Oh yes, I hear you. “But Joe, why should we trust you? Aren’t you the guy who once promised ‘an HJ out back’ if Crystal Palace lost to Brighton?” Yes. I am. And then, after they lost, I lied and told Lex, KJ, Wise, and Cub that Steed sprained his wrist at an event earlier in the day and couldn’t make it. But in fairness to me, that was a solid pick, I have since taken responsibility for my actions, and apologized.
Also, remember, CTG isn’t just about making fun of Guaranteed. First of all, he’s been working out, you don’t even know. Second, there’s a pill for Peyronie's disease now, so stop making jokes about how there’s “always money in the banana stand.” That’s bullying and it’s not cool. (I’ve got your back, ‘Teed.) Anyway, the rest of you should feel empowered to actually get in here and have your say.
And now, onward an upward with something to keep you busy until the games start this weekend.
THE NFC CENTRAL
Green Bay
Last year, I loved this team. Come December, I had futures on them to win the NFC and the SB. And did I hedge to guarantee a profit before the TB game? No, I most certainly did not, but thanks for bringing it up, Shaker. Always good to see you.
Point is, I say that to let you know that I really don’t hate this team, I just hate this year’s version of this team. This team feels a ‘lot’ to me like last year’s Pittsburgh team. Remember how Pittsburgh ran out to 11-0 and yet nobody really believed in them? This team feels a lot like that. Because as good as they may get, their record is likely going to be inflated by their terrible division and games against bad teams.
First off, the biggest problem GB faces hasn’t ever really been Rogers or the offense, it’s that every time they get deep into the playoffs, their defense decides it’s time to give up 40 points. Does anybody really think they’ve done enough to fix that?
There is a chance that Rodgers’ version of the Last Dance works out. And I do envision myself betting on this team at times during the season. Not to start off though, they lost their starting center to free agency and David Bakhtiari is out for the first six weeks. Their first game is on a neutral field vs. NO which may help, but I need a week or two to see if this team can block anybody before I bet on them. Thankfully for them, their division is so bad, and I still think there will be value on this team over the course of say the first third or half of the year.
If they can beat NO this weekend, they should be 2-0 before losing to SF in SF, revenge be dammed. But then they have a run of really winnable games Pitt, @Cincy, @chicago, Wash, @AZ. That’s where I see some value.
Minny
Speaking of teams I don’t have a lot of faith in, hello Minnesota. This is a team I’ve seen football types talking up as a sleeper this year, and I don’t buy it. First off, their entire QB room is a fucking Covid-cluster. Beyond Kirk Cousins, rookie Kellen Mond has had Covid not once, but twice, and unless I missed it, he still refuses to get vaccinated.
I personally don’t think any team has to forfeit a game this year because of Covid, there’s too much money involved. But if they do, my odds-on favorite to cause it is Minnesota.
Beyond that, I may be missing it, but I don’t see this team as particularly good. Here’s where I may be wrong, though. I said from the outset that I believe today’s NFL is about three things, a good QB, a line that can block for him, and a coach that isn’t going to lose you games. Cousins is good for the occasional great game and generally ‘good enough,’ and I don’t think Zimmer is bad. But their line was leaky last year.
Show me you can block, show me you can not give up 28+ a game, then maybe I will consider betting you until your entire team has to quarantine.
Minny has a really interesting schedule to start the season. On the road for two (Cincy and AZ, which feels like 1-1) then home for three (Sea, Cle, Det) before going to Carolina and then getting a somewhat early bye in Week 7. I can see 3-3 there. I could also see worse. But I think those games should give you a really good sense of what this team is.
If I’m right, and they are 3-3 coming out of the bye, they may set up as a go against team later in the year because their schedule only gets worse as the season goes on. And with an early bye, I could see this team wearing down.
Chicago
There are a couple of really poorly kept secrets in the NFL. Colin Kaepernick was blackballed, they call Nick Foles ‘Big Dick Nick’ for a reason, and the Chicago offensive line sucks Mouse nuts. To me, Chicago right out of the gate is a bet-against team, and by that I mean in Week 1. This is purely an anti-Andy Dalton play.
My speculation is that when Chicago signed him, they told him he would be the opening day starter—as they were very public about. But now that he’s basically been out played in the pre-season, the only question is, how long does that last. There’s a chance it only lasts the first half of the first game.
But my hope is, it lasts the whole first game and the Rams sack Dalton like seven times. Because I’m teasing LAR here. Top tier DL vs. one of the worst OLs in the league? I’ll take it.
Once they go to Fields, I think things change for Chicago. Sadly, it mostly means Fields may be running for his life much of the season.
To me, they look like 2-2 to start the season, away losses at LA and Cleveland (WK3), home wins vs. Cincy (WK2) and Detroit (WK4). Then they go to Vegas which will be a good trip for their fans, esp. if they can win, because things really get rough. GB, @TB, SF. That’s where I think it gets bad for this team as Chicago is rated with one of the hardest schedules in the NFL this year. That sucks for them, because if their OL is as bad as advertised, that defense might be good, but it will just wear down.
Good news for Chicago though, the White Sox are going to be in the playoffs. So let’s fucking go.
Detroit
Not since Hunt took a senior position in the Whitmer administration has there been this little hope in Michigan. Which, by the way, is really unfair. Hunt once hid a body in Windsor, OT for a heretofore unnamed member of the Pistons and suddenly it’s like he’s not doing enough for the state? It’s never enough for you ingrates, is it?
Anyway, this is another team in this terrible division I don’t believe in. What have they given us to hold onto? Jared Goff is apparently so much of a prick the Rams almost drove him to Motown themselves. They got rid of probably their best weapon in Golladay, I’m not sure if I remember the last time their defense was good, and they should go what 2-4 in the division at best?
Also, the start of their season sucks. SF, @GB, Baltimore, @Chi, @Minny. This team is going to be worn out quick. I don’t like how any of this sets up for this team this year at all. Honestly, their whole season sucks. How are you this bad the year before and end up with like the second hardest schedule in the league the next season? Be Detroit and have the league not care about you is the answer to that, I guess.
THE NFC SOUTH
Tampa
Sort of like KC, what’s there really to say here. This team is not only good, they’re returning their whole team. Oh, and They’re 100% vax’d. (We know how Brady voted so this tells you where he’s at with regard to winning.) Oh, and also, historically, year two is when you really finally wrap your head around all of an Arians’ offense.
Now, that may be less true here as Brady reportedly convinced Bruce to change some things up mid-way through last season and that was partially responsible for the Bucs ironing out their issues. But still, to me this team feels a lot like that NE team from a few years ago that put up 1,000 points and almost went undefeated.
Not that I think TB is going 17-0, I imagine they win 13, 14 something like that. But I do think they may score a ton of points this year. Because they have the three things I look for (QB, OL, coach) and one of the top three or so rated WR corps in the league. Also, their DL is strong enough that this offense is probably going to get the ball back early and often.
You may have to lay bigger numbers with this team because they’re ‘the’ team this year, but it may be worth it unless they prove they can’t keep the back door shut.
The league also did them a favor with this schedule, imo. It’s rated one of the easiest in the league. HOW DO YOU WIN IT ALL AND GET … whatever.
Now, maybe the league didn’t know Dallas would have issues Week 1, but TB starts at home, then has 10 days before yet another home game (Atlanta—good luck, Matt Ryan). Then the real season for them starts, @LAR, @NE. They basically have two tune-up games to get themselves ready. Everything sets up well for this team, tbh, including their bye which is sort of perfectly placed dead in the middle of the season in Week 9 and the fact that they may get to throttle down at the very end of the season based on their opponents.
Oooh, one other thing on TB which is as much about the league as it is about them. One reason we should have known that everyone who wasn’t sold on Brady + TB (*raises hand*) would be wrong is to look at scoring before he arrived.
Normally I don’t go back and look at the year before with some numbers because teams change, schedules change, all that. But overall numbers can add some value. For example, with Winston at QB, TB threw for a ton of TDs and passing yards. Once you removed all Winston’s turnovers, why would we think that TB wouldn’t improve pretty substantially? Because Tom’s deep ball had tailed off? Maybe, but they ADDED weapons on the outside.
Anyway, it might be interesting to note that the top six scoring teams last season were:
- GB
- Buffalo
- TB
- Tenny
- NO
- KC
I included KC there because NO had a significant change at QB this year—to Jameis Winston, because of course. Point is, remove NO if you like because changing your QB is a big deal and adds uncertainty. Of the remaining five teams, only GB seems to have had significant changes to the offense (losing their center in free agency and an all-pro for the first six weeks). Everyone else has either kept the band together or improved on offense. So how much should we really expect the top scoring teams in the league to change from last year to this?
Carolina
Here is where I think I differ from a lot of people. I think Carolina comes in second in this division. And, oddly, it’s not even because I have a ton of faith in Sam Darnold. They get McCaffrey back who this team runs through and it’s their second year under the same coach. There’s just something about this team I like.
Also, I think the rest of the division outside of Tampa takes a step back this year. But again, maybe I’m wrong. And I’m not saying I’m going to be looking to back this team out of the gate. I’d like to watch them a little, see what they’ve got.
I will, however, likely take a shot on the over in their first game. It’s not a big number, both QB’s are going to have something to prove. No matter if the game gets out of hand one way or another, I don’t think anybody shuts it down. Especially if it’s Carolina who’s up, if you’re the Jets, who cares if you lose by 20, you need to get Wilson pass attempts.
Also, let’s look at Carolina’s schedule. First, they get the NFC East, second they don’t face TB until very late in the season—including Week 18 in which TB might be resting their starters.
Here’s how they start: NYJ, NO, @Houston, @Dallas, Philly. It’s possible this team is 4-1 to start the season. In fact, the only reason I haven’t talked myself into their season over 7.5 is I’m not really crazy about their matchups mid-season: @NYG, @Miami, @Arizona, @Buffalo. Put those games at home and they might be 3-1. On the road they might go 0-4. Then you add in NE, Washington, and TB twice, and that eight might be too close for comfort.
New Orleans
OK, so I just said I think Carolina comes in second in this division—and I said Carolina may not get to eight wins. Meanwhile, the Saints’ season win total is nine. So …??
Ah ha, but the Saints’ season win total is also juiced to the under which means at least someone who knows someone agrees with me. Naturally I just assume it’s Carolina Blue who is infamous for moving lines (and hips) from Tupelo to Carteret County. But tying up money on -140 for an entire season isn’t something I’m interested in, so I’ll pass. But I am going to say, I think this team regresses this year. Which is funny seeing as how they now have a QB who can throw more than 30 yards down the field. And I do think that will help.
But, they’re without Michael Thomas for the foreseeable future, like six weeks into the season future. That’s a problem. Also, this team was tops in the NFC last year in terms of turnover differential, ahead of both TB and GB. As this is something that generally evens out from year to year, this isn’t going to help NO at all.
Also, like Carolina, I hate the Saints’ schedule.
Check this out. They lose their opening home game to climate change and will now get GB on a neutral, grass field in Jax. Not cool. If GB’s OL was healthy, you’d have to assume this was a loss. As it is, GB is still -4.5. But wait, it gets worse. After this they go to Carolina, then they go to NE. They do get the Giants at home and if they’re 0-3 this should be a great spot to come back with them. But then they have to go to Washington before an early season bye. They also have road games @Seattle, @Tenny, @Philly, and obviously TB x2.
Thanks, but I hate it. Pencil me in for that home game vs. the Giants, but everywhere else to start the season after Week 1, I’ll be looking to go against this team.
Here, however, is how I could be way wrong about NO. When last we saw Jameis Lanaed Winston starting, he was throwing for 5K yards and 33 TD passes in a single season. There’s no reason to think that arm isn’t there any more. And there’s no real reason to think his weapons here are any worse than they were in TB. Obviously Alvin Karmra is better than anyone TB was putting out there. So, in theory, Winston could easily throw for 2+ TDs a game this year and a bunch of yards. It could happen, and if it does, they easily could beat me and take second in this division without much of an issue.
Atlanta
OK, full disclosure, I love Kyle Pitts. I was terrified Jerry Jones was going to find a way to get this guy and have him haunt the Eagles for the rest of my days. I don’t hate him in Atlanta, but I also don’t think Atlanta is in a position to maximize this guy’s talent yet. Atlanta seems pretty obviously in ‘hey, we’re rebuilding, but don’t tell anybody, OK?’ mode.
And that’s fine, all teams need that. But if you’re betting on Atlanta right now, to me what you’re betting on is Matt Ryan to get you back door covers. Which might work! There are teams every year that do this. Jax was 1-15 SU last year but 7-9 ATS, the Bengals last year were 4-11-1 SU, but 9-7 ATS. Both the Broncos and Panthers (5-11) were that same 9-7 ATS. Those are huge swings from SU to ATS. So I won’t be totally shocked if that’s what we get from Atlanta this year.
But in terms of winning, Atlanta also gave up a good number of sacks last year. Now that you strip some weapons from Ryan, does that just get worse because fewer dudes can get open? It’s all question marks with me and this team.
Hey Joe, how’s their schedule? Oooh, I’m glad you asked. Not great! They get Philly at home in Week 1 which I, as a Bird fan, am hoping will be a fun, high scoring game. But win or lose it then gets pretty real for Atlanta: @TB, @NYG, home for Washington and the Jets. But then they get an early bye.
If this team is as bad as I think they may be, the timing of that bye could also be really bad for their defense. And there is a game late in the season I’m looking at. Granted, they may be 14 point dogs—but they travel to SF immediately after two division games, Tampa at home and @Carolina. This may be a great spot to go against them.
