Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
During Euro “2020,” BAR asked me if I would write up something for the NFL season. And, generally, I find that saying No to BAR when he asks for something nicely is sort of like turning down a reacharound, I mean, you can, but why?
Come to think of it, when BAR is asking for something nicely, a lot of the time he is asking for a reacharound. Huh. Really something to think about.
Anyway, this is going to be long, but what else are you gonna do this week, work? Please, don’t insult me. You’re better than that.
So, let’s talk about the NATIONAL. FOOTBALL. LEAGUE. *dun dun dun dun duhhhhh dun-dun, dun, dun dun*
Oh, two quick things about the league overall.
First, let me say this about Covid because it’s obviously still a thing and it will impact the season. And if you don’t care/don’t want to hear about it, I’ll denote when this part of the piece stops.
Also, to be extremely clear, what I am about to say about Covid IS NOT ABOUT YOU. If you read what I am about to say and get mad at me because you think I’m talking about you, that’s a you problem and while that’s sad, to be completely honest, oh well.
The thing about Covid and the NFL is that it is absolutely a competitive advantage to have your team vaccinated. It just is.
This year the NFL has basically said they don’t care. No, not about CTE or violence against women, that’s still all good, they don’t care if your team gets Covid. They’re not rescheduling shit for you, Baltimore. Or you, Tennessee. You’re gonna forfeit. Now, will that happen, probably not, but it’s out there. And any team that won’t get fully vax’d is risking it.
On a more individual level, if you are a selfish enough fucker who won’t get vaccinated, point blank, I don’t think you give two fucks about your team and I don’t believe you are truly committed to winning. End of fucking sentence.
Not getting vaccinated is a total fuck you to every member of your team that you sweat with every day, every member of their family, and every member of your organization. Because this is a team sport, and I guarantee you, Kirk Cousins, that there are members of your team who have small children who cannot get vaccinated, who have members of their family who are immunocompromised, etc. And when you refuse to get vaccinated, with a pandemic variant out there that is as contagious as chicken pox, you just don’t give enough of a fuck. You’re not really there to win, you’re there for some other selfish reason and while I hope you don’t die or kill anyone in your circle of people, don’t expect me to support your shitty, selfish decision.
Because, as a bettor, your shitty selfish decision makes it hard for me to back your team long term. At any point, Baltimore, you could have a QB room that ends up like Denver’s did last year. Where you either need to start someone incapable of playing the position or you forfeit a game. And in a league where lines are this tight, where season win totals are this tight, that’s a monster red flag.
Oh, and for what it’s worth, I don’t want to hear any bullshit about ‘I just need more information.’ Save it. Washington literally had the woman who developed the Moderna vax come in to answer questions for the team—maybe because their coach is a fucking cancer survivor. Anyway, after she was done Josh Sweat said he still wasn’t going to get vax’d because he still had questions.
The woman who made the vaccine was just there TO ANSWER THOSE FUCKING QUESTIONS, who else do you want to hear from, Josh, FUCKING AQUAMAN? Should we get Jason Fucking Momoa in here to tell you to stop being a fucking twat? Sorry. Where was I? Oh yeah, fuck Covid and fuck guys who don’t give two shits about their teammates.
*****End Covid rant****
Second, there was a time when I could bet this league semi-successfully. *sad music plays* Unfortunately, that was a long time ago. The league shifted in, say the late 2000s, and I fell apart betting-wise, to the point where losing sucked, I found the game boring, and pretty much tuned out for a long time. But everything changes and I believe the league has changed again.
Even up until a few years ago I think the NFL liked that as you got into the season it felt like everybody had a chance come winter. But I think they’ve since learned that you make more money when everybody ‘feels’ like they have a chance before the season, but once we get a few weeks into the season, it’s better for ratings if the public at large really only needs to care about a handful of teams—either to root for them or against them. Basically, I don’t think they really want parity at all.
I also think, and I believe we see this bear out in the numbers, they don’t want 23-13 football games ever if they can at all avoid them. And I think this year we might really see them lean into that more than ever. The biggest tell on this to me is that last year, the number of offensive holding penalties dropped in a big way. The league wants points. So, to me, that means find QBs that can play, find OLs that can block for them, find coaches that won’t Anthony Lynn you games in the fourth quarter, and then start looking at everything else.
With that said, let’s start in the AFC because that means we can save my prediction for the Eagles going 12-5 and Jalen Hurts being the runner up as league MVP for another thread. In the business, we call that a tease. Which, not coincidentally, is also what Steed calls two fingers on the taint, but again, I digress.
AFC EAST
Buffalo
Let’s start in the East, a division I normally don’t like, but man I like Buffalo. Here, though, is a case of one of those teams that is downright courting Covid. Not only is their QB Covid-curious, by now everybody has heard of the multiple dudes on the team who are basically Covid-compliant. As someone who’d like to be betting this team consistently throughout the year, this scares me to death. Still, if you look at this team’s schedule it’s just dripping with wins. According to ESPN, they have the 2nd easiest schedule in the league. In addition, I believe Buffalo ran the most four-wide sets in the league last year and has a top 10 OL. This team is going to score a bunch of points and they’re going to win a lot of games if they can avoid injury and the ‘vid.
I don’t think I’m going to go through the whole schedule for each team, because I also think (esp. with 17 games) this league will break down into thirds or even quarters more than ever this year. But I look at Buffalo as a team that should be 4-0 heading into Week 5 vs. KC. The week after which, it should be time to re-evaluate most teams. I say they win the division, but the numbers sucks and I won’t bet it, same with them to get to the playoffs. But I have already teased them in Week 1 as I think the matchup is terrible for Pitt, even though they should be at their healthiest and have revenge on the brain.
I don't know if they're going to win it all, but as long as they stay healthy, I think this team contends for HFA in the AFC.
New England
Second in the East, I have New England. Which is a tough call vs. Miami, but I’ll get to the fish in a minute. I don’t like that NE got rid of Cam—but if anything tells you about how being vax’d is a competitive advantage issue, it should be when noted Donald Trump supporter Bill Bellicheat kicks arguably the best QB (at least, as of right now) off the roster completely. Do you really want to tell me that Bellichick was going to ‘do Cam a solid’ rather than what makes his team better at QB2? Bullshit. Cam put that QB room et al at risk, Bellicheat went through that last year, and he won’t do it again. Done and done.
And why should he. He has a ton of guys coming back on defense. My guess is, this team starts slow on offense as Jones works through the rookie stuff all rookies have to, but that this team just gets better as the year goes on. I fully expect this team to push for double-digit wins—and do not underestimate how much Brady winning in TB last year motivates Bill this season. All that guy does is think about winning. You think he took all the talk about it being Brady all along rather than his coaching well? Does that seem like a thing Bellichick would do? Hahaha. Right.
One other thing that should embolden you if you’re a Pats’ bettor this year, last year they were 5-10-1 to the under. With the number of guys they get back on defense this year, my guess is that number stays shaded that way—and they jump up in wins.
Miami
In short, I like them, but I also don’t like them. I think they’re well coached, I think they have a lot of talent, but I also think they regress this year. Miami was third-best last year in turnover differential. That’s something that comes back to the mean. They’re also without Fitzmagic if and when Tua gets wobbly. Granted, I’ve always liked Brissett, but still. I think they’re going to be good, but not great, and I honestly think they miss the playoffs. This Miami team—IF Tua is good—strikes me as a team that could make the leap to challenging for the division ‘next’ year, not this.
That said, I do think Week One will be a very interesting matchup for them. It’s a game I’ve already bet the under on. I think both QBs struggle. This feels like 23-17 at the high end, probably more like 20-13.
In their first four, I have them going 2-2 at best, heading into their week five game at TB which should put them at 2-3 or worse and then they have to start answering questions they don’t want to deal with. At which point they coalesce, or it starts to come apart.
Last, Miami was great against the number last year, 10-6 SU, but 11-5 ATS. No other team was better and the other four teams around them all had better SU records. The next 10-6 or worse team near them (LAR) was 9-7 ATS. I feel this evens out especially when you figure in the turnover thing.
Because I don’t see the team being dramatically improved, in theory, the lines should catch up. That leads me to think that the line with Miami may really tell you what’s going to happen with them from week to week.
NYJ
So, there’s been a ton of love in the preseason for Zach Wilson. I haven’t really watched the preseason, so I haven’t seen it. And maybe he’s going to be good. And maybe his mom will stop being a complete crazy person. Who’s to say! What I will say is that I don’t see the wins on their schedule. They should lose both games to Buffalo and NE. They lose at least one to Miami. That’s five losses. At Denver and Indy, that’s seven. They go to Atlanta so … 7.5? New Orleans and TB at home, that’s 9.5 losses without really trying that hard.
This is a long way of saying I bet the Jets’ season win total under for the season. I don't really like a lot about this team this year. I don't like their talent level, I don't like their schedule, I don't like their division. But other than that though ... Yikes.
AFC NORTH
Cleveland
Jesus, finally the team that really matters here, the CLEVELAND FOOTBALL BROWNS. I’ve seen a lot of talk about how this team will regress this year purely based on numbers. Here’s the thing, I don’t totally disagree. But I think this entire division regresses this year and that Cleveland is the best in their division.
Here’s the thing about the Browns. First, they had a great offseason in that they were really honest about where they fell short last year and specifically targeted those needs in free agency and the draft. There are teams that will not be this honest in their offseason and it can kill you. The Browns were not this team.
The keys for this team to succeed this year—the first year Baker is actually going to have some coaching continuity, btw—will be for them to stay true to what they did last year. Be a running team that sets up the pass. If they can do that, and stay healthy, I think (and have bet) this team to win the division.
Throw out their first game against KC—which I both think and hope they lose–I see this team then winning three straight (Houston, Chicago, at Minny) before they match up with the Chargers in Week 5. They have some tough road games on the schedule, NE, LAC, Denver, GB, but overall I like the way their schedule lines up.
Something to note, last year the Browns were 11-5 SU, but 6-10 ATS. You have to think a lot of that was about their pre-season hype (also, to be extremely fair, they had three games in extreme weather last year which skews those ATS numbers slightly. Point is, there's as much or more hype on Cleveland this year. On paper they've really improved their defense, but winning and covering two scores ATS can be two different things. Just sayin'.
Baltimore
Here’s another one of these Covid teams. All the QBs in the Covid-curious ward get me, but Jackson is near the top for one reason. This dude is negotiating a contract right now—and he doesn’t have an agent. Josh Allen’s contract was $258M including a $16M signing bonus and $150M of guaranteed money. Lamar Demeatrice Jackson Jr., what are you doing? Seriously, WHAT ARE YOU DOING.
Anyway, I like this team, and I think their schedule isn’t as hard as it’s ranked (~8th hardest in the league), but they’ve had losses in the trenches, and they just lost Dobbins at RB. I still think this team is good. I think they may compete for a wildcard, but I think they miss out on the division.
They have a pretty good opening few games. They should beat Vegas in Week 1, but then they have to go home for KC. Then to Detroit and Denver before getting Indy at home. I’m going to give them 2-2 in the first four, 3-2 in the first five as they beat up on Indy at home (of course, write this one down as I end up talking myself into the Colts in this game a month from now). That should set them up well for the next phase of the season.
Also, if they happen to have another Covid issue in the middle of the season like last year, that’s exactly when both of their Browns games are, and those games are for the division, imo.
Cincy
Cincy is another one of those teams I’ve heard a lot of noise about in the preseason. Burrow is a mess, Chase can’t catch up to the offense after sitting out last season, etc. Again, I haven’t really watched it so I can’t really say how true or not any of that is. However, I think Cincy has a bigger problem and that is that they are, pretty clearly, the third best team in their own division. This is never a good place to be and almost always ends up with you on the outside looking in, if not looking for a new coach.
They’re not better than Cleveland, they’re not better than Balty. So what’s their path to the playoffs? Not to mention, to me, any time a QB is coming off a huge injury you need to show me before I buy into the idea that you’re back. A huge injury at the most important position on the field? Until Burrow shows me he’s back, I don’t like it. I also don’t think this team has the talent to really compete yet.
Their first four games aren’t too bad, Minny, then going on the road to Chicago and Pitt before coming home for Jax. But you have to think at best that’s 2-2, probably more like 1-3. For the sake of argument, say they’re 0-3 going into the Jax game. They win. Next they have to play Green Bay. Honestly, this team is under .500 before they know it. And that’s before they’ve even played Cleveland x2, Baltimore x2, the Chargers, Chiefs, Niners or the Broncos. My guess is, it doesn’t start great for Cincy, and then it starts to go off the rails somewhere between that GB game and their bye week in Week 10. After which it’s literally seven weeks of games they should lose but for maybe Pittsburgh at home or Vegas in Vegas.
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh sucks. Not the city, the city is awesome. But this team sucks. And I know you all want Mogo to fix them, but he is in charge of fixing the Penguins who have a lot of difficult choices to make over the next 18 months. Don’t get me wrong, I hear you all being like, “But Joe, don’t sell Mogo short, have you seen the nalgas on that guy? Can’t he multitask?”
And look, I’m not here to talk down Mogo’s abilities, let alone his nalgas. I’m here to uplift Mogo. But he’s only one man. Stop being so selfish, ya jagoffs.
Look, everybody is talking about what a mess Pittsburgh is and it happens to be one of the conventional wisdoms I buy. Big Ben is old. And he may start off fine like he starts off fine most years, but this time his OL is just not there to block for him.
Also, last year this team feasted on turnovers, 5th best differential in the league. That always evens out. That ain’t good.
I think this team is going to progressively get worse over the year—and I don’t really think they start in a great place. So whereas last year they were 11-0 before the collapse, I think this year they kind of hang around .500 before it falls apart. They have what is accepted as the hardest schedule in the league this year and it comes at a horrible time. In his career, Tomlin has never had a losing season. Looking at their schedule, I think that changes this year.
I’ve bet their season under and in their first four I have them at 2-2 before Denver and then Seattle comes into Pittsburgh. If they get super lucky, I think that makes them 4-2. But their bye this year is in Week 7. And next 11 weeks include Cleveland x2, Balty x2, Tenny, @LAC, @KC, @Minny. It’s bad news and time to rebuild.
Come to think of it, when BAR is asking for something nicely, a lot of the time he is asking for a reacharound. Huh. Really something to think about.
Anyway, this is going to be long, but what else are you gonna do this week, work? Please, don’t insult me. You’re better than that.
So, let’s talk about the NATIONAL. FOOTBALL. LEAGUE. *dun dun dun dun duhhhhh dun-dun, dun, dun dun*
Oh, two quick things about the league overall.
First, let me say this about Covid because it’s obviously still a thing and it will impact the season. And if you don’t care/don’t want to hear about it, I’ll denote when this part of the piece stops.
Also, to be extremely clear, what I am about to say about Covid IS NOT ABOUT YOU. If you read what I am about to say and get mad at me because you think I’m talking about you, that’s a you problem and while that’s sad, to be completely honest, oh well.
The thing about Covid and the NFL is that it is absolutely a competitive advantage to have your team vaccinated. It just is.
This year the NFL has basically said they don’t care. No, not about CTE or violence against women, that’s still all good, they don’t care if your team gets Covid. They’re not rescheduling shit for you, Baltimore. Or you, Tennessee. You’re gonna forfeit. Now, will that happen, probably not, but it’s out there. And any team that won’t get fully vax’d is risking it.
On a more individual level, if you are a selfish enough fucker who won’t get vaccinated, point blank, I don’t think you give two fucks about your team and I don’t believe you are truly committed to winning. End of fucking sentence.
Not getting vaccinated is a total fuck you to every member of your team that you sweat with every day, every member of their family, and every member of your organization. Because this is a team sport, and I guarantee you, Kirk Cousins, that there are members of your team who have small children who cannot get vaccinated, who have members of their family who are immunocompromised, etc. And when you refuse to get vaccinated, with a pandemic variant out there that is as contagious as chicken pox, you just don’t give enough of a fuck. You’re not really there to win, you’re there for some other selfish reason and while I hope you don’t die or kill anyone in your circle of people, don’t expect me to support your shitty, selfish decision.
Because, as a bettor, your shitty selfish decision makes it hard for me to back your team long term. At any point, Baltimore, you could have a QB room that ends up like Denver’s did last year. Where you either need to start someone incapable of playing the position or you forfeit a game. And in a league where lines are this tight, where season win totals are this tight, that’s a monster red flag.
Oh, and for what it’s worth, I don’t want to hear any bullshit about ‘I just need more information.’ Save it. Washington literally had the woman who developed the Moderna vax come in to answer questions for the team—maybe because their coach is a fucking cancer survivor. Anyway, after she was done Josh Sweat said he still wasn’t going to get vax’d because he still had questions.
The woman who made the vaccine was just there TO ANSWER THOSE FUCKING QUESTIONS, who else do you want to hear from, Josh, FUCKING AQUAMAN? Should we get Jason Fucking Momoa in here to tell you to stop being a fucking twat? Sorry. Where was I? Oh yeah, fuck Covid and fuck guys who don’t give two shits about their teammates.
*****End Covid rant****
Second, there was a time when I could bet this league semi-successfully. *sad music plays* Unfortunately, that was a long time ago. The league shifted in, say the late 2000s, and I fell apart betting-wise, to the point where losing sucked, I found the game boring, and pretty much tuned out for a long time. But everything changes and I believe the league has changed again.
Even up until a few years ago I think the NFL liked that as you got into the season it felt like everybody had a chance come winter. But I think they’ve since learned that you make more money when everybody ‘feels’ like they have a chance before the season, but once we get a few weeks into the season, it’s better for ratings if the public at large really only needs to care about a handful of teams—either to root for them or against them. Basically, I don’t think they really want parity at all.
I also think, and I believe we see this bear out in the numbers, they don’t want 23-13 football games ever if they can at all avoid them. And I think this year we might really see them lean into that more than ever. The biggest tell on this to me is that last year, the number of offensive holding penalties dropped in a big way. The league wants points. So, to me, that means find QBs that can play, find OLs that can block for them, find coaches that won’t Anthony Lynn you games in the fourth quarter, and then start looking at everything else.
With that said, let’s start in the AFC because that means we can save my prediction for the Eagles going 12-5 and Jalen Hurts being the runner up as league MVP for another thread. In the business, we call that a tease. Which, not coincidentally, is also what Steed calls two fingers on the taint, but again, I digress.
AFC EAST
Buffalo
Let’s start in the East, a division I normally don’t like, but man I like Buffalo. Here, though, is a case of one of those teams that is downright courting Covid. Not only is their QB Covid-curious, by now everybody has heard of the multiple dudes on the team who are basically Covid-compliant. As someone who’d like to be betting this team consistently throughout the year, this scares me to death. Still, if you look at this team’s schedule it’s just dripping with wins. According to ESPN, they have the 2nd easiest schedule in the league. In addition, I believe Buffalo ran the most four-wide sets in the league last year and has a top 10 OL. This team is going to score a bunch of points and they’re going to win a lot of games if they can avoid injury and the ‘vid.
I don’t think I’m going to go through the whole schedule for each team, because I also think (esp. with 17 games) this league will break down into thirds or even quarters more than ever this year. But I look at Buffalo as a team that should be 4-0 heading into Week 5 vs. KC. The week after which, it should be time to re-evaluate most teams. I say they win the division, but the numbers sucks and I won’t bet it, same with them to get to the playoffs. But I have already teased them in Week 1 as I think the matchup is terrible for Pitt, even though they should be at their healthiest and have revenge on the brain.
I don't know if they're going to win it all, but as long as they stay healthy, I think this team contends for HFA in the AFC.
New England
Second in the East, I have New England. Which is a tough call vs. Miami, but I’ll get to the fish in a minute. I don’t like that NE got rid of Cam—but if anything tells you about how being vax’d is a competitive advantage issue, it should be when noted Donald Trump supporter Bill Bellicheat kicks arguably the best QB (at least, as of right now) off the roster completely. Do you really want to tell me that Bellichick was going to ‘do Cam a solid’ rather than what makes his team better at QB2? Bullshit. Cam put that QB room et al at risk, Bellicheat went through that last year, and he won’t do it again. Done and done.
And why should he. He has a ton of guys coming back on defense. My guess is, this team starts slow on offense as Jones works through the rookie stuff all rookies have to, but that this team just gets better as the year goes on. I fully expect this team to push for double-digit wins—and do not underestimate how much Brady winning in TB last year motivates Bill this season. All that guy does is think about winning. You think he took all the talk about it being Brady all along rather than his coaching well? Does that seem like a thing Bellichick would do? Hahaha. Right.
One other thing that should embolden you if you’re a Pats’ bettor this year, last year they were 5-10-1 to the under. With the number of guys they get back on defense this year, my guess is that number stays shaded that way—and they jump up in wins.
Miami
In short, I like them, but I also don’t like them. I think they’re well coached, I think they have a lot of talent, but I also think they regress this year. Miami was third-best last year in turnover differential. That’s something that comes back to the mean. They’re also without Fitzmagic if and when Tua gets wobbly. Granted, I’ve always liked Brissett, but still. I think they’re going to be good, but not great, and I honestly think they miss the playoffs. This Miami team—IF Tua is good—strikes me as a team that could make the leap to challenging for the division ‘next’ year, not this.
That said, I do think Week One will be a very interesting matchup for them. It’s a game I’ve already bet the under on. I think both QBs struggle. This feels like 23-17 at the high end, probably more like 20-13.
In their first four, I have them going 2-2 at best, heading into their week five game at TB which should put them at 2-3 or worse and then they have to start answering questions they don’t want to deal with. At which point they coalesce, or it starts to come apart.
Last, Miami was great against the number last year, 10-6 SU, but 11-5 ATS. No other team was better and the other four teams around them all had better SU records. The next 10-6 or worse team near them (LAR) was 9-7 ATS. I feel this evens out especially when you figure in the turnover thing.
Because I don’t see the team being dramatically improved, in theory, the lines should catch up. That leads me to think that the line with Miami may really tell you what’s going to happen with them from week to week.
NYJ
So, there’s been a ton of love in the preseason for Zach Wilson. I haven’t really watched the preseason, so I haven’t seen it. And maybe he’s going to be good. And maybe his mom will stop being a complete crazy person. Who’s to say! What I will say is that I don’t see the wins on their schedule. They should lose both games to Buffalo and NE. They lose at least one to Miami. That’s five losses. At Denver and Indy, that’s seven. They go to Atlanta so … 7.5? New Orleans and TB at home, that’s 9.5 losses without really trying that hard.
This is a long way of saying I bet the Jets’ season win total under for the season. I don't really like a lot about this team this year. I don't like their talent level, I don't like their schedule, I don't like their division. But other than that though ... Yikes.
AFC NORTH
Cleveland
Jesus, finally the team that really matters here, the CLEVELAND FOOTBALL BROWNS. I’ve seen a lot of talk about how this team will regress this year purely based on numbers. Here’s the thing, I don’t totally disagree. But I think this entire division regresses this year and that Cleveland is the best in their division.
Here’s the thing about the Browns. First, they had a great offseason in that they were really honest about where they fell short last year and specifically targeted those needs in free agency and the draft. There are teams that will not be this honest in their offseason and it can kill you. The Browns were not this team.
The keys for this team to succeed this year—the first year Baker is actually going to have some coaching continuity, btw—will be for them to stay true to what they did last year. Be a running team that sets up the pass. If they can do that, and stay healthy, I think (and have bet) this team to win the division.
Throw out their first game against KC—which I both think and hope they lose–I see this team then winning three straight (Houston, Chicago, at Minny) before they match up with the Chargers in Week 5. They have some tough road games on the schedule, NE, LAC, Denver, GB, but overall I like the way their schedule lines up.
Something to note, last year the Browns were 11-5 SU, but 6-10 ATS. You have to think a lot of that was about their pre-season hype (also, to be extremely fair, they had three games in extreme weather last year which skews those ATS numbers slightly. Point is, there's as much or more hype on Cleveland this year. On paper they've really improved their defense, but winning and covering two scores ATS can be two different things. Just sayin'.
Baltimore
Here’s another one of these Covid teams. All the QBs in the Covid-curious ward get me, but Jackson is near the top for one reason. This dude is negotiating a contract right now—and he doesn’t have an agent. Josh Allen’s contract was $258M including a $16M signing bonus and $150M of guaranteed money. Lamar Demeatrice Jackson Jr., what are you doing? Seriously, WHAT ARE YOU DOING.
Anyway, I like this team, and I think their schedule isn’t as hard as it’s ranked (~8th hardest in the league), but they’ve had losses in the trenches, and they just lost Dobbins at RB. I still think this team is good. I think they may compete for a wildcard, but I think they miss out on the division.
They have a pretty good opening few games. They should beat Vegas in Week 1, but then they have to go home for KC. Then to Detroit and Denver before getting Indy at home. I’m going to give them 2-2 in the first four, 3-2 in the first five as they beat up on Indy at home (of course, write this one down as I end up talking myself into the Colts in this game a month from now). That should set them up well for the next phase of the season.
Also, if they happen to have another Covid issue in the middle of the season like last year, that’s exactly when both of their Browns games are, and those games are for the division, imo.
Cincy
Cincy is another one of those teams I’ve heard a lot of noise about in the preseason. Burrow is a mess, Chase can’t catch up to the offense after sitting out last season, etc. Again, I haven’t really watched it so I can’t really say how true or not any of that is. However, I think Cincy has a bigger problem and that is that they are, pretty clearly, the third best team in their own division. This is never a good place to be and almost always ends up with you on the outside looking in, if not looking for a new coach.
They’re not better than Cleveland, they’re not better than Balty. So what’s their path to the playoffs? Not to mention, to me, any time a QB is coming off a huge injury you need to show me before I buy into the idea that you’re back. A huge injury at the most important position on the field? Until Burrow shows me he’s back, I don’t like it. I also don’t think this team has the talent to really compete yet.
Their first four games aren’t too bad, Minny, then going on the road to Chicago and Pitt before coming home for Jax. But you have to think at best that’s 2-2, probably more like 1-3. For the sake of argument, say they’re 0-3 going into the Jax game. They win. Next they have to play Green Bay. Honestly, this team is under .500 before they know it. And that’s before they’ve even played Cleveland x2, Baltimore x2, the Chargers, Chiefs, Niners or the Broncos. My guess is, it doesn’t start great for Cincy, and then it starts to go off the rails somewhere between that GB game and their bye week in Week 10. After which it’s literally seven weeks of games they should lose but for maybe Pittsburgh at home or Vegas in Vegas.
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh sucks. Not the city, the city is awesome. But this team sucks. And I know you all want Mogo to fix them, but he is in charge of fixing the Penguins who have a lot of difficult choices to make over the next 18 months. Don’t get me wrong, I hear you all being like, “But Joe, don’t sell Mogo short, have you seen the nalgas on that guy? Can’t he multitask?”
And look, I’m not here to talk down Mogo’s abilities, let alone his nalgas. I’m here to uplift Mogo. But he’s only one man. Stop being so selfish, ya jagoffs.
Look, everybody is talking about what a mess Pittsburgh is and it happens to be one of the conventional wisdoms I buy. Big Ben is old. And he may start off fine like he starts off fine most years, but this time his OL is just not there to block for him.
Also, last year this team feasted on turnovers, 5th best differential in the league. That always evens out. That ain’t good.
I think this team is going to progressively get worse over the year—and I don’t really think they start in a great place. So whereas last year they were 11-0 before the collapse, I think this year they kind of hang around .500 before it falls apart. They have what is accepted as the hardest schedule in the league this year and it comes at a horrible time. In his career, Tomlin has never had a losing season. Looking at their schedule, I think that changes this year.
I’ve bet their season under and in their first four I have them at 2-2 before Denver and then Seattle comes into Pittsburgh. If they get super lucky, I think that makes them 4-2. But their bye this year is in Week 7. And next 11 weeks include Cleveland x2, Balty x2, Tenny, @LAC, @KC, @Minny. It’s bad news and time to rebuild.
