Braves vs. Mets Sunday Night Preview and Best Bet
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Sunday, May 30, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Citi Field in Queens, New York
Jacob deGrom
Met starter Jacob deGrom is enjoying the strongest season of his already stellar career.
Through seven starts, he’s yielding a 0.80 ERA as he’s never allowed more than one earned run in a single start.
His current strikeout rate sits at a career-high while his walk rate remains the lowest that it has ever been in a season for him.
He’s strongest at home, where he’s yielding a .126 BA. Both lefties and righties hit under .140 against him.
deGrom achieves his strong numbers primarily with his 4-seam fastball, which he throws with 64.6-percent frequency.
At 99 mph, his average fastball velocity is up from last year’s and, compared with other current pitchers, it ranks in the 99th percentile in velocity.
His fastball also enjoys a lot of spin, by which measure it sits in the 74th percentile.
So batters struggle to keep up with this pitch’s velocity and, because of its spin, they also struggle to keep track of its location.
He likes to throw his fastball up in the zone, where its rising action often causes batters to swing underneath it.
deGrom will play his pitches off of each other. After throwing a high-heater, he’ll come back with a low slider or a low-change-up — the latter especially to lefties.
With the latter two pitches, he changes the eye level of the batter and also creates a change of pace. Both of these pitches — his slider and his change-up — yield a BA under .100.
Easy Schedule
One might try to claim that deGrom has benefitted from an easy schedule.
But Atlanta will not be his toughest test. In terms of runs per game, the Red Sox rank third, and he held them to one run over six innings.
While the Braves rank a seemingly formidable eighth in runs per game, their prowess at home inflates this overall statistic. They have the fifth-best offense at home in terms of runs per game.
On the road, their run per game average would place them 15th overall.
Citi Field
But not all road ballparks are built equally, of course.
It’s important to note particularly how Freddie Freeman tends to perform in Citi Field because he has the best numbers against deGrom.
In his career in NL ballparks, which are the ballparks that Freeman visits most often since his team is also in the NL, Freeman produces the third-lowest slugging rate in Citi Field.
For comparison’s sake, his career slugging rate is .088 higher at home than in Citi Field.
deGrom vs. Brave Batters
Overall, though, deGrom has excellent numbers against Atlanta hitters.
In 224 at-bats, they are hitting .223 and slugging .339 against deGrom.
Whatever success — minimal, typically — that they’ve generated against deGrom has come nearly without exception in Atlanta.
Number
While the over/under posted at Sports Betting Sites might seem low, low totals are a regularity for deGrom.
But the numbers show that the MLB Odds are still showing too little respect for deGrom.
So far, the “under” is 6-1 in his starts overall, 5-0 at home.
Max Fried
Since a rough opening month that is still reflected in his high ERA, Fried has figured things out.
He has allowed one earned run in each of his last four starts.
All of his individual pitches have improved drastically in terms of the BA and slugging rate that they are yielding.
Since the start of May, his favorite off-speed pitches are even rivaling deGrom’s in terms of opposing BA and slugging rate, which means that he has top-quality stuff to rely on in general and especially when there are baserunners and when there are two strikes in the count.
In May, his fastball location has improved as evident in the higher rate at which he places it on the edge. As a result, it’s yielding less hard contact.
Moreover, he is putting more spin on his slider and curveball.
Fried vs. Met Batters
Fried enjoys a special situation today since he is starting with six days’ rest. In this situation, he’s yielding a career 2.70 ERA.
Also, Fried matches up well with Met batters because he is a lefty. They rank 26th in slugging against lefties.
They’ve hardly seen Fried. In just 35 at-bats, Met batters are hitting .229 and slugging .400 when facing him.
Best Bet: Under 6 at -120 with Bovada
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Sunday, May 30, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Citi Field in Queens, New York
Jacob deGrom
Met starter Jacob deGrom is enjoying the strongest season of his already stellar career.
Through seven starts, he’s yielding a 0.80 ERA as he’s never allowed more than one earned run in a single start.
His current strikeout rate sits at a career-high while his walk rate remains the lowest that it has ever been in a season for him.
He’s strongest at home, where he’s yielding a .126 BA. Both lefties and righties hit under .140 against him.
deGrom achieves his strong numbers primarily with his 4-seam fastball, which he throws with 64.6-percent frequency.
At 99 mph, his average fastball velocity is up from last year’s and, compared with other current pitchers, it ranks in the 99th percentile in velocity.
His fastball also enjoys a lot of spin, by which measure it sits in the 74th percentile.
So batters struggle to keep up with this pitch’s velocity and, because of its spin, they also struggle to keep track of its location.
He likes to throw his fastball up in the zone, where its rising action often causes batters to swing underneath it.
deGrom will play his pitches off of each other. After throwing a high-heater, he’ll come back with a low slider or a low-change-up — the latter especially to lefties.
With the latter two pitches, he changes the eye level of the batter and also creates a change of pace. Both of these pitches — his slider and his change-up — yield a BA under .100.
Easy Schedule
One might try to claim that deGrom has benefitted from an easy schedule.
But Atlanta will not be his toughest test. In terms of runs per game, the Red Sox rank third, and he held them to one run over six innings.
While the Braves rank a seemingly formidable eighth in runs per game, their prowess at home inflates this overall statistic. They have the fifth-best offense at home in terms of runs per game.
On the road, their run per game average would place them 15th overall.
Citi Field
But not all road ballparks are built equally, of course.
It’s important to note particularly how Freddie Freeman tends to perform in Citi Field because he has the best numbers against deGrom.
In his career in NL ballparks, which are the ballparks that Freeman visits most often since his team is also in the NL, Freeman produces the third-lowest slugging rate in Citi Field.
For comparison’s sake, his career slugging rate is .088 higher at home than in Citi Field.
deGrom vs. Brave Batters
Overall, though, deGrom has excellent numbers against Atlanta hitters.
In 224 at-bats, they are hitting .223 and slugging .339 against deGrom.
Whatever success — minimal, typically — that they’ve generated against deGrom has come nearly without exception in Atlanta.
Number
While the over/under posted at Sports Betting Sites might seem low, low totals are a regularity for deGrom.
But the numbers show that the MLB Odds are still showing too little respect for deGrom.
So far, the “under” is 6-1 in his starts overall, 5-0 at home.
Max Fried
Since a rough opening month that is still reflected in his high ERA, Fried has figured things out.
He has allowed one earned run in each of his last four starts.
All of his individual pitches have improved drastically in terms of the BA and slugging rate that they are yielding.
Since the start of May, his favorite off-speed pitches are even rivaling deGrom’s in terms of opposing BA and slugging rate, which means that he has top-quality stuff to rely on in general and especially when there are baserunners and when there are two strikes in the count.
In May, his fastball location has improved as evident in the higher rate at which he places it on the edge. As a result, it’s yielding less hard contact.
Moreover, he is putting more spin on his slider and curveball.
Fried vs. Met Batters
Fried enjoys a special situation today since he is starting with six days’ rest. In this situation, he’s yielding a career 2.70 ERA.
Also, Fried matches up well with Met batters because he is a lefty. They rank 26th in slugging against lefties.
They’ve hardly seen Fried. In just 35 at-bats, Met batters are hitting .229 and slugging .400 when facing him.
Best Bet: Under 6 at -120 with Bovada
