Braves vs. Cubs Sunday Night Baseball Preview and Pick
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs
Sunday, April 18, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Wrigley Field in Chicago
Starting Pitcher Change
Originally, Atlanta starting pitcher Sean Newcomb was slated to start tonight’s game.
But yesterday, Newcomb was suddenly and unexpectedly placed on injured list.
No official reason was given, although it’s suspected that the reason has to do with COVID. He may have been exposed to somebody who has the virus.
Bryse Wilson By The Numbers
In place of Newcomb, Bryse Wilson was recalled from Atlanta’s alternate training site in order to start tonight for the Braves.
While this counts as an emergency recall, I want to stress that Wilson is not any kind of desperate last resort.
If you only take a quick peak at his career MLB stats, you’ll get a false impression of him for several reasons.
For starters, expectations for him have always been high, which is why he’s been a highly-ranked MLB prospect.
Two, his career MLB stats mask the improvement on the mound that he has made.
In his last two regular season outings last year — which were also his only two starts — he allowed one run in eight innings combined against the Marlins and Red Sox.
Most impressively, Wilson threw six innings of one-hit, one-run ball in the NLCS against the future champion Dodgers.
He continued his success in this year’s Spring Training where he yielded a 1.98 ERA in 13.2 innings.
Bryse Wilson Pitching Breakdown
Early scouting reports indicate that Wilson is regarded most highly for his fastball and slider.
He’s found his earliest success with the former pitch, a fastball that averages mid-90s in velocity.
His slider is supposed to be strong. He throws it hard and otherwise gives it a lot of potential.
But when he faced the Dodgers, he didn’t do a lot with his slider.
He’s still evidently able to thrive even when he disappoints with respect to this one pitch.
While his slider may not have lived up to expectation, he’s still able to display a good mixture of off-speed offerings that complement his lively fastball.
This is the versatility that made the Braves want to rely on him in case a Brave starter should go down — as Newcomb has — and be unable to start.
Wilson vs. Cub Batters
Wilson last faced the Cubs back in 2019. Wilson was 21 then.
In 2019, Wilson’s ERA was 7.20 as he was over a year away from experiencing the breakthrough that he did at the end of last season.
Since he was a different pitcher in 2019, that outing against the Cubs is meaningless to consider for tonight’s game.
As someone who likes to rely on his fastball, as someone whose fastball has always been his best offering, Wilson matches up well with Cub batters.
Against the fastball from righties, Cub batters rank last in hitting .122 and slugging .222.
Their struggles against the fastball have persisted. So even in their most recent week, their numbers against this pitch are very poor.
Kyle Hendricks
Chicago starter Kyle Hendricks is still listed as day-to-day due to an illness.
This illness is not COVID-related. He tested negative for the virus.
But whatever he had caused him to miss his last scheduled start, which would have taken place on Tuesday.
So he has not pitched in a game since April 7.
Hendricks vs. Brave Batters
Unlike Cub batters against Wilson, Brave batters can boast strong numbers against Hendricks in a larger data sample.
In 68 career at-bats against Hendricks, active Atlanta batters are hitting .324 and slugging .529.
Four different Brave batters are hitting over .370 and slugging over .590 in at least five at-bats against Hendricks.
Look out for Marcell Ozuna, who is finally overcoming his slow start to the season and is 4-for-8 in this series so far.
While Ronald Acuna doesn’t have the proven track record against Hendricks that Ozuna does, Acuna has been solidly consistent for the Braves in general.
Acuna carries a nine-game hitting streak into tonight’s contest. He has a home run in two at-bats against Hendricks.
In general, Brave batters are comfortable seeing what Hendricks has to offer. His two favorite pitches by frequency are the sinker and change-up.
The Braves have improved to rank sixth in hitting .340 and in slugging .472 against these two pitches from righties in the past week.
The Verdict
Bryse Wilson is an underrated pitcher whose progression will continue tonight against a Cub lineup that matches up poorly with him.
Wilson will outperform his Cub counterpart, Hendricks, who has struggled against several Brave batters.
Best Bet: Braves First-Half ML
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs
Sunday, April 18, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Wrigley Field in Chicago
Starting Pitcher Change
Originally, Atlanta starting pitcher Sean Newcomb was slated to start tonight’s game.
But yesterday, Newcomb was suddenly and unexpectedly placed on injured list.
No official reason was given, although it’s suspected that the reason has to do with COVID. He may have been exposed to somebody who has the virus.
Bryse Wilson By The Numbers
In place of Newcomb, Bryse Wilson was recalled from Atlanta’s alternate training site in order to start tonight for the Braves.
While this counts as an emergency recall, I want to stress that Wilson is not any kind of desperate last resort.
If you only take a quick peak at his career MLB stats, you’ll get a false impression of him for several reasons.
For starters, expectations for him have always been high, which is why he’s been a highly-ranked MLB prospect.
Two, his career MLB stats mask the improvement on the mound that he has made.
In his last two regular season outings last year — which were also his only two starts — he allowed one run in eight innings combined against the Marlins and Red Sox.
Most impressively, Wilson threw six innings of one-hit, one-run ball in the NLCS against the future champion Dodgers.
He continued his success in this year’s Spring Training where he yielded a 1.98 ERA in 13.2 innings.
Bryse Wilson Pitching Breakdown
Early scouting reports indicate that Wilson is regarded most highly for his fastball and slider.
He’s found his earliest success with the former pitch, a fastball that averages mid-90s in velocity.
His slider is supposed to be strong. He throws it hard and otherwise gives it a lot of potential.
But when he faced the Dodgers, he didn’t do a lot with his slider.
He’s still evidently able to thrive even when he disappoints with respect to this one pitch.
While his slider may not have lived up to expectation, he’s still able to display a good mixture of off-speed offerings that complement his lively fastball.
This is the versatility that made the Braves want to rely on him in case a Brave starter should go down — as Newcomb has — and be unable to start.
Wilson vs. Cub Batters
Wilson last faced the Cubs back in 2019. Wilson was 21 then.
In 2019, Wilson’s ERA was 7.20 as he was over a year away from experiencing the breakthrough that he did at the end of last season.
Since he was a different pitcher in 2019, that outing against the Cubs is meaningless to consider for tonight’s game.
As someone who likes to rely on his fastball, as someone whose fastball has always been his best offering, Wilson matches up well with Cub batters.
Against the fastball from righties, Cub batters rank last in hitting .122 and slugging .222.
Their struggles against the fastball have persisted. So even in their most recent week, their numbers against this pitch are very poor.
Kyle Hendricks
Chicago starter Kyle Hendricks is still listed as day-to-day due to an illness.
This illness is not COVID-related. He tested negative for the virus.
But whatever he had caused him to miss his last scheduled start, which would have taken place on Tuesday.
So he has not pitched in a game since April 7.
Hendricks vs. Brave Batters
Unlike Cub batters against Wilson, Brave batters can boast strong numbers against Hendricks in a larger data sample.
In 68 career at-bats against Hendricks, active Atlanta batters are hitting .324 and slugging .529.
Four different Brave batters are hitting over .370 and slugging over .590 in at least five at-bats against Hendricks.
Look out for Marcell Ozuna, who is finally overcoming his slow start to the season and is 4-for-8 in this series so far.
While Ronald Acuna doesn’t have the proven track record against Hendricks that Ozuna does, Acuna has been solidly consistent for the Braves in general.
Acuna carries a nine-game hitting streak into tonight’s contest. He has a home run in two at-bats against Hendricks.
In general, Brave batters are comfortable seeing what Hendricks has to offer. His two favorite pitches by frequency are the sinker and change-up.
The Braves have improved to rank sixth in hitting .340 and in slugging .472 against these two pitches from righties in the past week.
The Verdict
Bryse Wilson is an underrated pitcher whose progression will continue tonight against a Cub lineup that matches up poorly with him.
Wilson will outperform his Cub counterpart, Hendricks, who has struggled against several Brave batters.
Best Bet: Braves First-Half ML
