MLB Parlay for June 30: A Bet That Pays (+551)
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 6:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
Who Starts for Atlanta?
Atlanta starts Ian Anderson today.
Anderson has been in the habit of alternating good starts with bad ones, so he'll look to bounce back tonight after suffering a rough outing against the Dodgers.
He is in a great spot in which to bounce back because he is pitching in Philadelphia.
In his career, Anderson has allowed a total of one earned run in 12 innings pitched in Philly.
Anderson vs. Philly Batters
Philadelphia's hitters have shown minimal positive consistency in their track record versus Anderson.
The Philly batter with the highest career BA in at least five at-bats against Anderson is Alec Bohm.
Bohm is hitting .250 with Anderson on the mound but has no extra-base hits.
Other key Philly batters have been worse-off when facing Anderson.
JT Realmuto, for example, is 1-for-5 lifetime against him.
Who Starts for Philadelphia?
Aaron Nola starts for the Phillies tonight.
After suffering a 3.90 ERA through the first month of the season, Nola may have alienated bettors who had been predisposed to bet on him.
But Nola is back to being the high-caliber pitcher as which people normally characterize him.
In each of his last four starts, he has yielded a sub-1.70 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding).
His victims include a Padre squad that is just about on par with Atlanta in terms runs per game, of which San Diego produces .07 fewer.
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros
Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 6:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Who Starts for the Yankees?
New York starts Luis Severino today.
In his most recent stats, Severino has showed a troublesome tendency to surrender home runs.
He has allowed a home run in each of his last three starts.
During this three-game span, he allowed a combined total of four home runs.
This tendency is particularly worrisome because Houston is already great at belting home runs.
The Astros rank third in home runs per game.
Severino vs. Astro Batters
Houston's lineup matches up excellently with Severino given the pitches that he throws.
Primarily, Severino throws a hard fastball.
This pitch averages 96.2 mph, so it tends to waver between 94 and 98 mph.
It is particularly important to Severino because it is by far the pitch that he throws most frequently.
He throws it 46.8 percent of the time.
Fortunately for the Astros, they rank second in slugging .556 against the 94-98 mph from righties.
Severino's other favorite pitches are his changeup and slider.
Together, his fastball, changeup, and slider combine for just over 90 percent of his arsenal.
The Astros rank second in slugging against his favorite pitches combined from righties.
Who Starts for Houston?
Houston starts Luis Garcia tonight.
Garcia has been awful against AL East teams this year.
He faced Boston once and Toronto twice, yielding an FIP over 5.90 in all three games.
The Yanks promise to thrive against him tonight because they rank second in slugging against his favorite pitches combined from righties.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park in Pittsburgh
Great Form for Key Brewers
As a team, Milwaukee shows great form.
The Brewers are enjoying a collective rhythm that is carrying positively from one game to the next.
Currently, they are enjoying a four-game win streak that they have sustained both at home and on the road.
Moreover, tonight's Milwaukee starter, Adrian Houser, has been performing well in his most recent starts.
After yielding a 2.49 FIP at the Mets and a 3.46 FIP in Cincinnati, he yielded a 2.63 FIP in his last start against Toronto.
He matches up well against Pirate batters in that the latter are at their best against fly ball pitchers while Houser, particularly with his sinker, has always exhibited strong ground ball tendencies.
Who Starts for Pittsburgh?
Pittsburgh starts JT Brubaker tonight.
His favorite two pitches, by far, are his sinker and slider.
Milwaukee's lineup therefore matches up excellently with him.
The Brewers rank number one in slugging against Brubaker's favorite pitches combined from righties.
Best Bet: Parlay Braves/Phillies Under 8.5 at -120, Astros/Yankees Over 8 at -105, and Brewers ML at -122 at +551 odds with BetOnline
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 6:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
Who Starts for Atlanta?
Atlanta starts Ian Anderson today.
Anderson has been in the habit of alternating good starts with bad ones, so he'll look to bounce back tonight after suffering a rough outing against the Dodgers.
He is in a great spot in which to bounce back because he is pitching in Philadelphia.
In his career, Anderson has allowed a total of one earned run in 12 innings pitched in Philly.
Anderson vs. Philly Batters
Philadelphia's hitters have shown minimal positive consistency in their track record versus Anderson.
The Philly batter with the highest career BA in at least five at-bats against Anderson is Alec Bohm.
Bohm is hitting .250 with Anderson on the mound but has no extra-base hits.
Other key Philly batters have been worse-off when facing Anderson.
JT Realmuto, for example, is 1-for-5 lifetime against him.
Who Starts for Philadelphia?
Aaron Nola starts for the Phillies tonight.
After suffering a 3.90 ERA through the first month of the season, Nola may have alienated bettors who had been predisposed to bet on him.
But Nola is back to being the high-caliber pitcher as which people normally characterize him.
In each of his last four starts, he has yielded a sub-1.70 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding).
His victims include a Padre squad that is just about on par with Atlanta in terms runs per game, of which San Diego produces .07 fewer.
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros
Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 6:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Who Starts for the Yankees?
New York starts Luis Severino today.
In his most recent stats, Severino has showed a troublesome tendency to surrender home runs.
He has allowed a home run in each of his last three starts.
During this three-game span, he allowed a combined total of four home runs.
This tendency is particularly worrisome because Houston is already great at belting home runs.
The Astros rank third in home runs per game.
Severino vs. Astro Batters
Houston's lineup matches up excellently with Severino given the pitches that he throws.
Primarily, Severino throws a hard fastball.
This pitch averages 96.2 mph, so it tends to waver between 94 and 98 mph.
It is particularly important to Severino because it is by far the pitch that he throws most frequently.
He throws it 46.8 percent of the time.
Fortunately for the Astros, they rank second in slugging .556 against the 94-98 mph from righties.
Severino's other favorite pitches are his changeup and slider.
Together, his fastball, changeup, and slider combine for just over 90 percent of his arsenal.
The Astros rank second in slugging against his favorite pitches combined from righties.
Who Starts for Houston?
Houston starts Luis Garcia tonight.
Garcia has been awful against AL East teams this year.
He faced Boston once and Toronto twice, yielding an FIP over 5.90 in all three games.
The Yanks promise to thrive against him tonight because they rank second in slugging against his favorite pitches combined from righties.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park in Pittsburgh
Great Form for Key Brewers
As a team, Milwaukee shows great form.
The Brewers are enjoying a collective rhythm that is carrying positively from one game to the next.
Currently, they are enjoying a four-game win streak that they have sustained both at home and on the road.
Moreover, tonight's Milwaukee starter, Adrian Houser, has been performing well in his most recent starts.
After yielding a 2.49 FIP at the Mets and a 3.46 FIP in Cincinnati, he yielded a 2.63 FIP in his last start against Toronto.
He matches up well against Pirate batters in that the latter are at their best against fly ball pitchers while Houser, particularly with his sinker, has always exhibited strong ground ball tendencies.
Who Starts for Pittsburgh?
Pittsburgh starts JT Brubaker tonight.
His favorite two pitches, by far, are his sinker and slider.
Milwaukee's lineup therefore matches up excellently with him.
The Brewers rank number one in slugging against Brubaker's favorite pitches combined from righties.
Best Bet: Parlay Braves/Phillies Under 8.5 at -120, Astros/Yankees Over 8 at -105, and Brewers ML at -122 at +551 odds with BetOnline
