MLB Parlay Picks of the Day
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Max Fried’s Struggles
Brave starter Max Fried is suffering by far the worst season of his career.
He’s struggling to limit the number of walks and home runs that he concedes.
Opponents are hitting his pitches with the barrel of their bat and generally hitting his pitches hard at higher rates.
All of his favorite pitches are letting him down.
Like last year, he mostly throws a 4-seam fastball. Whereas he yielded a .198 BA with this pitch last year, opponents are batting .391 against it this year.
Fried vs. Washington Batters
In his career, Fried has been awful in Washington, yielding a 14.21 in Nationals Park in three starts.
Accordingly, several National batters are accumulating strong slugging numbers against him.
Trea Turner, for example, is 6-for-13 (.462) with a double and a home run against Fried.
Turner also happens to be on fire now, having just raised his BA to .320 and slugging rate to .546 after another strong hitting performance yesterday.
He and his teammates will thrive against Fried because they match up well with him.
Against his three favorite pitches from lefties — his fastball, slider, and curveball, all of which he throws over 20 percent of the time — National batters rank third in slugging .515.
Erick Fedde vs. Brave Batters
Atlanta can keep pace with the Nationals because its hitters own strong numbers against National starter Erick Fedde.
Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Austin Riley all slug over .550 against Fedde in at least six at-bats.
Fedde’s two favorite pitches are his sinker and cutter. He throws the former with 42.1 percent frequency, the latter with 28.7 percent frequency.
So far, Brave batters are hitting .291 and slugging .434 against these two pitches from righties.
They will help ensure that the first five innings witness a lot of runs.
Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City
Shane Bieber
Indian starter Shane Bieber is consistently able to go deep into games — he has lasted six innings in all six of his starts this season — because of his strong pitch variety.
Bieber offers a fastball, slider, and curveball. He throws his fastball 37.1 percent of the time and his curveball and slider each with over 28 percent frequency.
He ably keeps his fastball out of the more middle parts of the zone, instead frequently elevating it. In elevating it, he maximizes the effect of its above-average spin rate, as batters struggle to keep track of its location.
His curveball and slider, though, are more likely to land in the lower parts of the zone or below the strike zone. With this lower location, Bieber changes the batter’s eye level after a high fastball, in addition to creating a change of pace.
These latter two pitches are his most effective ones — batters hit below .200 against each one — partly because of the ways in which he plays them off of his fastball.
Bieber vs. Royal Batters
Bieber’s poor career numbers in Kauffman Stadium are misleading and you should not consider them.
They come from his rookie season — way back in 2018 — when he had two bad starts in Kansas City.
Bieber is a different pitcher now, which is why his ERA is currently 2.76, whereas it was 4.55 in 2018.
His last start in Kansas City was last year. In that 2020 start, Bieber allowed one hit in six shutout innings.
Active Royal batters, moreover, hit a paltry .211 and slug .396 against Bieber.
Brady Singer vs. Indian Batters
Royal starter Brady Singer primarily throws a sinker and a slider.
I suspect that, as the 24-year old matures, he’ll develop a third offering that he’s comfortable relying on.
But right now, he only owns two primary pitches.
This lack of variety makes him easier to figure out, which is why his ERA jumps to 6.75 in his second time through the order.
Expect Indian batters to contribute to that high ERA because they slug .472 against Singer’s favorite two pitches from righties.
They already enjoy strong form, producing at least five runs in three straight games.
Parlay Verdict
In Washington D.C., Fried and Fedde will struggle to get outs. Ballpark history, match-up details, and batter history speak against Fried, match-up details and batter history against Fedde.
In Kansas City, Bieber will ride the strength of his pitch variety to sustain his strong start while Singer’s lack of variety will hurt him especially against a hot Indian lineup that matches up well against him.
For the above reasons, parlay the Braves/Nationals first-half “over” with the Indians run-line.
Best Bet: Parlay Braves/Nationals First-Half over 4.5 at -110 & Indians -1.5 at +105 at +291 odds with Bovada
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Max Fried’s Struggles
Brave starter Max Fried is suffering by far the worst season of his career.
He’s struggling to limit the number of walks and home runs that he concedes.
Opponents are hitting his pitches with the barrel of their bat and generally hitting his pitches hard at higher rates.
All of his favorite pitches are letting him down.
Like last year, he mostly throws a 4-seam fastball. Whereas he yielded a .198 BA with this pitch last year, opponents are batting .391 against it this year.
Fried vs. Washington Batters
In his career, Fried has been awful in Washington, yielding a 14.21 in Nationals Park in three starts.
Accordingly, several National batters are accumulating strong slugging numbers against him.
Trea Turner, for example, is 6-for-13 (.462) with a double and a home run against Fried.
Turner also happens to be on fire now, having just raised his BA to .320 and slugging rate to .546 after another strong hitting performance yesterday.
He and his teammates will thrive against Fried because they match up well with him.
Against his three favorite pitches from lefties — his fastball, slider, and curveball, all of which he throws over 20 percent of the time — National batters rank third in slugging .515.
Erick Fedde vs. Brave Batters
Atlanta can keep pace with the Nationals because its hitters own strong numbers against National starter Erick Fedde.
Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Austin Riley all slug over .550 against Fedde in at least six at-bats.
Fedde’s two favorite pitches are his sinker and cutter. He throws the former with 42.1 percent frequency, the latter with 28.7 percent frequency.
So far, Brave batters are hitting .291 and slugging .434 against these two pitches from righties.
They will help ensure that the first five innings witness a lot of runs.
Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City
Shane Bieber
Indian starter Shane Bieber is consistently able to go deep into games — he has lasted six innings in all six of his starts this season — because of his strong pitch variety.
Bieber offers a fastball, slider, and curveball. He throws his fastball 37.1 percent of the time and his curveball and slider each with over 28 percent frequency.
He ably keeps his fastball out of the more middle parts of the zone, instead frequently elevating it. In elevating it, he maximizes the effect of its above-average spin rate, as batters struggle to keep track of its location.
His curveball and slider, though, are more likely to land in the lower parts of the zone or below the strike zone. With this lower location, Bieber changes the batter’s eye level after a high fastball, in addition to creating a change of pace.
These latter two pitches are his most effective ones — batters hit below .200 against each one — partly because of the ways in which he plays them off of his fastball.
Bieber vs. Royal Batters
Bieber’s poor career numbers in Kauffman Stadium are misleading and you should not consider them.
They come from his rookie season — way back in 2018 — when he had two bad starts in Kansas City.
Bieber is a different pitcher now, which is why his ERA is currently 2.76, whereas it was 4.55 in 2018.
His last start in Kansas City was last year. In that 2020 start, Bieber allowed one hit in six shutout innings.
Active Royal batters, moreover, hit a paltry .211 and slug .396 against Bieber.
Brady Singer vs. Indian Batters
Royal starter Brady Singer primarily throws a sinker and a slider.
I suspect that, as the 24-year old matures, he’ll develop a third offering that he’s comfortable relying on.
But right now, he only owns two primary pitches.
This lack of variety makes him easier to figure out, which is why his ERA jumps to 6.75 in his second time through the order.
Expect Indian batters to contribute to that high ERA because they slug .472 against Singer’s favorite two pitches from righties.
They already enjoy strong form, producing at least five runs in three straight games.
Parlay Verdict
In Washington D.C., Fried and Fedde will struggle to get outs. Ballpark history, match-up details, and batter history speak against Fried, match-up details and batter history against Fedde.
In Kansas City, Bieber will ride the strength of his pitch variety to sustain his strong start while Singer’s lack of variety will hurt him especially against a hot Indian lineup that matches up well against him.
For the above reasons, parlay the Braves/Nationals first-half “over” with the Indians run-line.
Best Bet: Parlay Braves/Nationals First-Half over 4.5 at -110 & Indians -1.5 at +105 at +291 odds with Bovada
