Lefty Battle Favors Washington; Run Total Is Too High In Colorado
Atlanta (62-44) at Washington (56-49)
When: 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
MLB Pick: Nationals First-Five RL
Atlanta's Dallas Keuchel (3-3, 3.50 ERA) has been very consistent: good at home, bad on the road. In each of his four road starts, he's yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) over 5.00.
Keuchel's arsenal doesn't contain a single pitch that averages at least 90 mph. He relies mostly on a slow sinker that he tries to locate at the batter's knees, but that opponents punish when he leaves it higher in the strike zone. Overall, they slug .456 against it. Their success against his sinker is critical because it's his favorite pitch. He throws it with 52 percent frequency and relies on it most in every part of the count against both lefties and righties.
The Nationals match up well with Keuchel as a southpaw. They rank seventh in slugging against the sinker from lefties. This match-up advantage explains why they hit .370 and slug .570 against Keuchel in 100 at-bats. Watch out for Brian Dozier, who is 7-for-15 (.467) with a double and a homer against him.
Patrick Corbin (8-5, 3.25 ERA) shows solid form for the Nats, conceding one run or fewer in each of his last seven starts. His FIP was 3.06 or lower in his last six. As a result, he's won his last three decisions and Washington has won the last seven games in which he started.
Corbin is succeeding without even having to throw many pitches within the strike zone. Instead, he's getting batters to chase at a high rate. His slider is his biggest weapon. It's his favorite whiff pitch, generating a whiff 25.95 percent of the time, and opponents hit .163 against it. His dominance with this pitch is significant because he favors it in all parts of the count, which is rare, because the slider is a classic two-strike pitch. Its tight motion prevents opposite-handed batters from getting a helpfully long look at it and he nails it in the lowest-left corner of the strike zone with 41.71 percent frequency.
His slider will be crucial today because the Braves rank 25th in slugging against the slider from lefties. Expect top slugger Freddie Freeman to struggle. He's 3-for-21 (.143) with 10 strikeouts in his career against Corbin.
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Los Angeles Dodgers (69-38) at Colorado (49-57)
When: 8:40 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: First-Five "Under"
The key theme for this play is that the run total is set high because Coors Field is a notoriously hitters-friendly venue. This total, though, does not account for how effective both pitchers are historically in Colorado.
Colorado's Jon Gray (9-7, 4.05 ERA) is performing better at home, where his ERA is 3.90, than on the road. He's yielded two runs or fewer in four of his last six home games.
Gray seems like he's improved from last year, where his ERA was 1.07 higher. But in reality, he's finally shedding off bad luck. Over time, a pitcher's career ERA and FIP tend to align as their ERA more accurately reflects their true performance. Expect this progression to continue because his career ERA is still .74 higher than his career FIP. This year, the hits that Gray is allowing are coming less often with runners in scoring position. He's stranding runners at a 9.8 percent higher rate. When he's in danger, Gray loves to lean on his slider and curveball. Opponents hit .176 against the former and .161 against the latter.
While L.A. batters have strong numbers against him, they've accrued those mostly in prior years. When they scored five runs against Gray in their first meeting, three of those came as he extended his outing beyond the fifth inning. In their second meeting, Gray allowed two earned runs in 6.2 innings in Colorado, largely because of his slider usage when runners entered scoring position. Expect little from Cody Bellinger, who's slugging .313 in his past seven days.
Los Angeles' Kenta Maeda (7-7, 3.81 ERA) has been a strong "under" pitcher. The "under" has hit in his last four starts and in seven of his last eight. It hits over 60 percent of the time both overall and when the Dodgers are favored.
In seven career starts in Colorado, Maeda's career ERA is 3.12. Like Gray, he's successful there because he's able to induce ground balls at a higher rate than he usually does. Keeping the ball on the ground is important in Colorado because it negates the home run-inducing effects of Denver's high altitude.
Expect a lot of change-ups, which is one of Maeda's favorite pitches. It's his third-most frequent one and opponents hit .172 against it. His change-up possesses strong arm-side movement that makes it more elusive and slight dip. Its six most frequent locations are along a border of the zone. Because of its motion and placement, it's easily his favorite ground-ball inducing pitch.
Maeda is yielding a 2.76 ERA in three starts against the Rockies this year, succeeding against them off both four and five days' rest. Expect nothing from Nolan Arenado, who is 3-for-27 (.111) with 13 strikeouts against Maeda.
Atlanta (62-44) at Washington (56-49)
When: 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
MLB Pick: Nationals First-Five RL
Atlanta's Dallas Keuchel (3-3, 3.50 ERA) has been very consistent: good at home, bad on the road. In each of his four road starts, he's yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) over 5.00.
Keuchel's arsenal doesn't contain a single pitch that averages at least 90 mph. He relies mostly on a slow sinker that he tries to locate at the batter's knees, but that opponents punish when he leaves it higher in the strike zone. Overall, they slug .456 against it. Their success against his sinker is critical because it's his favorite pitch. He throws it with 52 percent frequency and relies on it most in every part of the count against both lefties and righties.
The Nationals match up well with Keuchel as a southpaw. They rank seventh in slugging against the sinker from lefties. This match-up advantage explains why they hit .370 and slug .570 against Keuchel in 100 at-bats. Watch out for Brian Dozier, who is 7-for-15 (.467) with a double and a homer against him.
Patrick Corbin (8-5, 3.25 ERA) shows solid form for the Nats, conceding one run or fewer in each of his last seven starts. His FIP was 3.06 or lower in his last six. As a result, he's won his last three decisions and Washington has won the last seven games in which he started.
Corbin is succeeding without even having to throw many pitches within the strike zone. Instead, he's getting batters to chase at a high rate. His slider is his biggest weapon. It's his favorite whiff pitch, generating a whiff 25.95 percent of the time, and opponents hit .163 against it. His dominance with this pitch is significant because he favors it in all parts of the count, which is rare, because the slider is a classic two-strike pitch. Its tight motion prevents opposite-handed batters from getting a helpfully long look at it and he nails it in the lowest-left corner of the strike zone with 41.71 percent frequency.
His slider will be crucial today because the Braves rank 25th in slugging against the slider from lefties. Expect top slugger Freddie Freeman to struggle. He's 3-for-21 (.143) with 10 strikeouts in his career against Corbin.
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Los Angeles Dodgers (69-38) at Colorado (49-57)
When: 8:40 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: First-Five "Under"
The key theme for this play is that the run total is set high because Coors Field is a notoriously hitters-friendly venue. This total, though, does not account for how effective both pitchers are historically in Colorado.
Colorado's Jon Gray (9-7, 4.05 ERA) is performing better at home, where his ERA is 3.90, than on the road. He's yielded two runs or fewer in four of his last six home games.
Gray seems like he's improved from last year, where his ERA was 1.07 higher. But in reality, he's finally shedding off bad luck. Over time, a pitcher's career ERA and FIP tend to align as their ERA more accurately reflects their true performance. Expect this progression to continue because his career ERA is still .74 higher than his career FIP. This year, the hits that Gray is allowing are coming less often with runners in scoring position. He's stranding runners at a 9.8 percent higher rate. When he's in danger, Gray loves to lean on his slider and curveball. Opponents hit .176 against the former and .161 against the latter.
While L.A. batters have strong numbers against him, they've accrued those mostly in prior years. When they scored five runs against Gray in their first meeting, three of those came as he extended his outing beyond the fifth inning. In their second meeting, Gray allowed two earned runs in 6.2 innings in Colorado, largely because of his slider usage when runners entered scoring position. Expect little from Cody Bellinger, who's slugging .313 in his past seven days.
Los Angeles' Kenta Maeda (7-7, 3.81 ERA) has been a strong "under" pitcher. The "under" has hit in his last four starts and in seven of his last eight. It hits over 60 percent of the time both overall and when the Dodgers are favored.
In seven career starts in Colorado, Maeda's career ERA is 3.12. Like Gray, he's successful there because he's able to induce ground balls at a higher rate than he usually does. Keeping the ball on the ground is important in Colorado because it negates the home run-inducing effects of Denver's high altitude.
Expect a lot of change-ups, which is one of Maeda's favorite pitches. It's his third-most frequent one and opponents hit .172 against it. His change-up possesses strong arm-side movement that makes it more elusive and slight dip. Its six most frequent locations are along a border of the zone. Because of its motion and placement, it's easily his favorite ground-ball inducing pitch.
Maeda is yielding a 2.76 ERA in three starts against the Rockies this year, succeeding against them off both four and five days' rest. Expect nothing from Nolan Arenado, who is 3-for-27 (.111) with 13 strikeouts against Maeda.
