Brady Prop

[smith1051]

Patriots offense has been very slow out of the gate with a limited Gronkowski. Yet they are still 2nd in the league with an average of 70 snaps/game which 38 of those are passes. Gronkowski has been on the field for 38, 28 and last week 42 snaps and there is talk that he should be near full availability.

If you look at the box score a little closer you will see that the Patriots haven't been very efficient in the RZ. Those are spots where a healthy Gronk would be very helpful or even a dump off to a back.
Gostkowski 20yd (ball on 2) and 21yd (ball on 2) FG against Raiders Wk3
Gostkowski 27yd (ball on 9) FG against Vikings Wk2

Brady each game this year has only netted 1 TD pass but last year he passed for at least 2 TDs in 50% of his games with essentially the same offensive weapons. Now if we look at how other QBs have faired in the last 6 games against Chiefs:
Rivers 3 TDs Wk15
Luck 1 TD Wk16
McGloin 2 TDs Wk17
Locker 2 TDs Wk1
Manning 3 TDs Wk2
Tannehill 1 TD Wk3

I think it is way too early for people to start burying Brady and saying his career is over. This is MNF and all eyes will be on him to see if his career is truly on the downside. This is the type of national stage where Brady lives for and I think he will have a monster game against the Chiefs.

Brady Over 1.5 TD Passes -140

 

[Kramer]

Couldn't agree more. Gl

 

[Schrute]

Keep crushin these Smitty

 

[cogenman]

GL man, you've been crushing these props all weekend.

 

[YoungGun11]

Great analysis, stay hot!

 

[jdoggoakley]

I like your -140 way better than my offer at -175

Good luck with it - hope it hits for you.
J

 

[smith1051]

yeah jdogg it moved to -160 after I bet it this morning and has gone up since. First thing this morning was -115 but couldn't get it since I was getting kids ready for school haha

 

[P-Unit]

my shop has -130, so I'm tailing you on this one. GL man.

 

[Retburj13]

Over

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1½

(-170)o<input type="checkbox" value="20732582" name="lineID" title="Click to bet on the game's total score to be over 1½" style="margin: 2px; padding: 0px;"> (+140)u<input type="checkbox" value="20732583" name="lineID" title="Click to bet on the game's total score to be under 1½" style="margin: 2px; padding: 0px;"> ​

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</tbody>

jumped big now

like it, gl man

 

[Paulie The Vig]

Patriots offense has been very slow out of the gate with a limited Gronkowski. Yet they are still 2nd in the league with an average of 70 snaps/game which 38 of those are passes. Gronkowski has been on the field for 38, 28 and last week 42 snaps and there is talk that he should be near full availability.

If you look at the box score a little closer you will see that the Patriots haven't been very efficient in the RZ. Those are spots where a healthy Gronk would be very helpful or even a dump off to a back.
Gostkowski 20yd (ball on 2) and 21yd (ball on 2) FG against Raiders Wk3
Gostkowski 27yd (ball on 9) FG against Vikings Wk2

Brady each game this year has only netted 1 TD pass but last year he passed for at least 2 TDs in 50% of his games with essentially the same offensive weapons. Now if we look at how other QBs have faired in the last 6 games against Chiefs:
Rivers 3 TDs Wk15
Luck 1 TD Wk16
McGloin 2 TDs Wk17
Locker 2 TDs Wk1
Manning 3 TDs Wk2
Tannehill 1 TD Wk3

I think it is way too early for people to start burying Brady and saying his career is over. This is MNF and all eyes will be on him to see if his career is truly on the downside. This is the type of national stage where Brady lives for and I think he will have a monster game against the Chiefs.

Brady Over 1.5 TD Passes -140

I liked this also and 5dimes went to -155 but William Hill is -120 so good luck to us. Just check again now -135 still good if available to you.

 

[loggy]

Bookmaker has -116

 

[Paulie The Vig]

Charles 70.5 Rushing Yards with the Under -125 doesn't sound to bad.

Charles (high ankle sprain) was inactive last week after totaling nine carries in the first two games but practiced on a limited basis Thursday.

If I remember right and of course it's not set in stone but if you didn't practice on Friday you usually don't play. Not saying he won't give it a go but a high ankle sprain is going to need a very large cortisone shot.

 

[chancedog]

My number just dropped from -130 to -110

 

[smith1051]

Still -175 (for me at least) at Sportsbook. If it drops I'll hit it again

 

[ProV1Colt]

Yes sir. Damn. My ML is -220.
Pretty sure it's EZ $ though.

 

[SDDML]

My account has Brady 2 TD +160?

 

[Lareux]

My account has Brady 2 TD +160?

Yep, but you need to get to 3 to win, which is why you have +money. You push at 2 TDs, anyone in this thread will win.

:shake:

 

[smith1051]

Don't think I'd be comfortable with 3 TDs

 

[SDDML]

So a free play at a potential win!

 

[barmeezee]

yup my book has 2 TDs for +135 fuck that

 

[smith1051]

Going to go ahead and call this a loss. The demise may be true. Brady and the Pats look like shit

 

[pcbsg_12]

life

 

[smith1051]

Wish we could count pick 6's in this shit haha

 

[Paulie The Vig]

Brady out that sucks but you really can't blame them he could get killed. Glad I didn't bother with the rushing prop (Charles) That got smashed early.

 

[smith1051]

As shitty as the Pats played I think this was the right call. On to the next one