G
Gyno
Guest
[h=1]#BoxscoreReview Week 6[/h] Posted by Todd on Oct 9, 2013 in NCAAF
Every week in college the final scores don’t tell the full story. That’s why I’m here to try and help point out some of the statistical nuggets you may have missed in your handicapping.
Utah vs UCLA: Utah failed to cover against UCLA on Thursday night and they can blame the 6 interceptions thrown by Travis Wilson. The most impressive part of his generosity was that 5 of the 6 picks came in the 2nd half.
Utah St vs BYU: The biggest thing you wouldn’t know by blindly looking at the boxscore is that USU lost all MWC caliber QB Chuckie Keeton for the season to a knee injury. His backup Craig Harrison was 4-10 for 26 yards in relief and it’s safe to say the Aggies offense may look very different in coming weeks.
San Diego St vs Nevada: The Aztecs had a commanding 44-23 lead headed into the 4th quarter before Cody Fajardo went bonkers in comeback mode. The game tying drive for the Wolfpack culminated with 1:38 to go in regulation but their upset bid was denied in OT because of penalties. SDSU was led by a 2-headed rushing monster of Muema/Pumphrey who combined for 248 on only 35 carries.
Navy vs Air Force: Navy and Air Force amassed roughly the same amount of yardage but the Middies covered the closing number because of a 21-0 2nd half surge. Navy QB Keenan Reynolds, who was listed as questionable before the game, carried the football 28 times while no other Navy player had more than 8 touches. The two teams only ran 134 plays with a clock that never stopped but it had nothing to do with the government shutdown.
Florida St vs Maryland: There was nothing flukey about FSU’s drubbing of Maryland. The 63-0 final is what you’d expect when one team outgains the other 614-234 and compiles 33 first downs to their opposition’s 9. The bigger loss for Maryland was QB CJ Brown who left before halftime when the Terps still appeared to have an outside chance of covering the 17.
Indiana vs Penn St: Somehow the Hoosiers solved their leaky run defense during the bye week. The same team that was shredded by Navy and Missouri kept Penn St in check holding the Nittany Lions to 70 yards on 38 carries or a whopping 1.8 YPC explaining why the 4 pt road favorite lost by nearly 3 touchdowns.
Nebraska vs Illinois: Even with a backup QB in place of Taylor Martinez, Illinois showed no signs of stopping the Cornhuskers ground game. Nebraska ran the rock 50 times for 335 yards and outgained Illinois 6.7 YPC to 4.1 YPC. NU jumped out to a 23-5 lead at the half and coasted to an easy cover as 8.5 point favorites.
Temple vs Louisville: The Cardinals were anything but efficient on offense amassing 525 yards but scoring only 30 pts. One of the key metrics I use to grade teams is yards per point and elite teams are usually in the 13-15 range. Saturday Louisville had to work extra hard at 17.5 yppt. Defensively, Ville was extremely stout holding the Owls to 255 yards even as they bombed away throughout the 2nd half.
Virginia vs Ball St: A close game at the half turned into a blowout over the last 30 minutes Saturday in Charlottesville. Yardage was close to equal but the turnover margin wasn’t with the Cardinals ending +4 in that department. UVA had 7 drives in the second half; 4 ended in turnovers if you include their series that was short on downs. Let’s just say Mike London’s offense isn’t setting the world on fire.
Iowa vs Michigan St: Iowa gained 264 yards against the vaunted Spartan defense on Saturday. However, 140 yards of their total output came on consecutive drives in the 2nd quarter (both resulted in touchdowns). In the 2nd half Iowa had the ball 7 times and if you remove their 16 play 64 yard march to finish the game (when everything but the final had been determined) they gained a robust 31 yards TOTAL on the other 6 drives. WELP
Kansas vs Texas Tech: If you were holding a KU ticket +17, things looked pretty good at the the end of the 1st quarter. KU had a 10-0 lead but that’s when the wheels came off completely. Texas Tech ran off points on 9 of their next 10 series (end of half not included) and distanced themselves from the Jayhawks with a 54-6 run over the final 45 minutes.
SMU vs Rutgers: SMU tried to come back from the dead at 35-14 but couldn’t get over the hump losing 55-52 in OT. The Mustangs outgained the Scarlet Knights on the afternoon behind Garret Gilbert’s 70 pass attempts. The real box score stuffer for SMU was Jeremy Johnson who hauled in 17 balls for 217 yards. Now that’s what we call earning your paycheck at the college level.
Alabama vs Georgia St: I don’t care what happened here, won’t even bother with the box score.
Virginia Tech vs North Carolina: Bryn Renner, UNC’s starting QB, was a late scratch for Saturday’s game. UNC was done in by the turnover bug, surrendering the football on 3 occasions compared to the Hokies who made it through the contest blemish free. The problem for Tech in the winning effort was their ground game that mustered 48 yards on 34 carries leading to only 341 yards of offense on the afternoon.
Central Michigan vs Miami OH: The Redhawks had an offensive explosion against the Chippewas (by their standards) with 294 yards. However the effort wasn’t enough because it cost Don Treadwell his job as head coach. Austin Boucher continues to struggle under center for Miami and now has a stat line that reads 40-91, 524 yards passing for the season…aka a 1st half for the Baylor Bears.
Troy vs South Alabama: Just by reading the box score South Alabama was clearly the side, outgaining Troy 630-434. The Jaguars trailed 27-19 until late in the 4th when South Alabama scored 2 touchdowns in the span of 2:03. However South Alabama scored a little too quickly because despite falling behind with 48 seconds left, Troy still manufactured a TD drive of their own that culminated in a 20 yard TD pass with only :07 seconds remaining.
Marshall vs UTSA: Marshall built a 24-3 lead at the half and coasted to a relatively uneventful cover as 14 pt favorites. What was interesting was the Herd’s commitment to the ground game where they ran it 49 times but only for 125 yards, or 2.6 ypc, against a much-maligned Road Runner defense. Eric Soza was far from effective for UTSA going 10-26 throwing the ball and was eventually lifted after throwing his 3rd interception of the afternoon.
Akron vs Ohio: The Bobcats were 100% the better team on Saturday but 362 yards doesn’t typically translate into 43 points. Ohio’s defense accounted for 9 of those points and Akron’s offensive ineptitude created short fields all day for Ohio.
Michigan vs Minnesota: Their 42-13 win over Minnesota would lead you to believe all’s well for the Maize and Blue right now but the boxscore tells a different story. Michigan was only +67 in total yards but did benefit from +2 in the turnover department. The game was 28-13 deep into the 4th quarter before Michigan scored 2 TD’s in the final 2:36 to create a misleading final. The real key to the game for Michigan was going went 10-13 on 3rd down.
Syracuse vs Clemson: GROUNDED! Syracuse only threw for 74 yards against Clemson despite spending the better part of the game in full blown catch-up mode. They were able to run the ball for 323 yards however still didn’t sniff a cover as 14 pt dogs losing the turnover battle 4-2.
Oklahoma St vs Kansas St: There may be bigger problems than anyone is letting on regarding the Oklahoma St offense. Yes, they did win 33-29 against K-State but the game should never be that close when you win the turnover battle 5-1. The once proud ground game for Mike Gundy’s team has struggled of late and bears watching moving forward.
Northern Illinois vs Kent St: I’m not quite sure how the Huskies only won by 14 points when you see they outgained Kent St 698-392. NIU had no problems moving the ball through the air, 244 yards, or on the ground, 454 yards. They did struggle a bit against the Golden Flashes ground game yielding over 6ypc in the winning effort.
Tulane vs North Texas: Tulane’s offense can’t be described as anything other than a mess given its 227 yard output against North Texas. The game was 7-0 Tulane at the half and 21-7 Wave at the end of 3 but it still took a Cairo Santos FG for Tulane to win 24-21 at the bell. While the Green Wave did score 3 touchdowns, 2 of them were non offensive with a Pick 6 and return of a blocked field goal mixed in.
Cal vs Washington St: How the hell did California lose by 22 points and outgain their opponent by 15 yards? Well when in doubt look to the turnover column where Cal gave the ball away 5 times compared to 1 for the Cougars. The 11 penalties for 96 yards didn’t help the Golden Bears effort either.
Memphis vs UCF: The Tigers benefited immensely from taking on a lethargic Knights team but still couldn’t come away victorious. Memphis outgained UCF 397-270, out first downed them 25-16, and led 17-10 until the 2:05 mark of the 4th. However, the Tigers marked edge on the stat sheet wasn’t helped by their -4 turnover margin
Idaho vs Fresno St: The Bulldogs put on an absolute clinic in Moscow scoring 61 points while gaining 731 yards. Their lone blemish came in the 3rd down conversion category where Fresno went a pedestrian 6-15. Once Derek Carr left the game Fresno threw the ball a grand total of 2 times as they just played to run out the clock late.
Colorado vs Oregon: Oregon did what Oregon does: nearly doubling up their opponent in offensive output 755-374 and nearly quadrupling them on the scoreboard. Marcus Mariota bolstered his quest for the Heisman trophy accounting for 7 touchdowns in De’Anthony Thomas’ absence.
Auburn vs Ole Miss: Despite losing the game by 8, Ole Miss was the better team at Jordan Hare on Saturday. The Rebels were done in by a Tigers pick 6 and an Auburn ground game that averaged 5.9 ypc. Passing yards weren’t close with Ole Miss absolutely dominating that category 340-93.
USF vs Cincinnati: The Bulls found a way to win outright as double digit underdogs despite not scoring an offensive touchdown. Kloss knocked 4 field goals through for USF while the defense and special teams each accounted for 1 TD a piece.
New Mexico vs New Mexico St: Apparently Bob Davie has something special going in Albuquerque; UNM’s now scored 77 points combined in the first half of their last 2 games. That’s all that needs to be said about these less than average sides. New Mexico is clicking on the ground as well compiling roughly 1,000 yards on the ground over their last 2 games.
Oklahoma vs TCU: I’m not sure 210 yards qualifies as offensive output but that’s what TCU racked up against Oklahoma. Guess what? It was enough to cover as 10 pt dogs as they answered a late Sooner TD to get inside the number and lose by only a field goal.
UL Lafayette vs Texas St: It’s not often a 48-24 final looks a lot closer than the game actually was but that’s what happened here. ULL dominated from start to finish building a 45-10 lead mid-way through the 4th before TSU had a kickoff return TD and a meaningless 7 in garbage time. Yards weren’t any closer than the score with ULL dominating that category to the tune of 572-196.
Mississippi St vs LSU: Zac Mettenberger was great and so was the LSU offense but their defense was anything but in Starkville. However a 31-26 game got ugly in the 4th when LSU rattled off 28 straight points en route to a much needed SEC road win. The biggest problem for the Tigers was a leaky run defense that surrendered 216 yards to the Bulldogs.
Notre Dame vs Arizona St: Under backers caught a raw deal in Dallas when a dead shot under blew up over the final 15 minutes. ASU and Notre Dame combined for 37 points in the first 3 quarters but a 34 point explosion late pushed the game over 63. Yards were pretty close and the final score was truly indicative of the way the game was played from a side perspective.
Baylor vs West Virginia: Baylor did what Baylor does; break offensive records blowing past a Big XII milestone for single game offensive output with 864 yards. This game was 66-21 when Baylor took their foot off the gas in the 4th subsequently surrendering 21 points to the Mountaineers when the game and cover were both out of reach.
Stanford vs Washington: There was not a more misleading final score than what we saw unfold in Palo Alto. Washington was the better team in almost every facet of the game except special teams. They dominated the stat sheet against the Cardinal 30-14 in first downs and 489-279 in yardage absolutely smashing Stanford’s 100 yards of total passing offense with 350 of their own. Fortunately for Washington backers they were able to come in through the backdoor with a late TD to get inside the closing number. The real achilles heel for the Huskies all night was their kick coverage allowing Stanford to create short fields throughout the game.
Every week in college the final scores don’t tell the full story. That’s why I’m here to try and help point out some of the statistical nuggets you may have missed in your handicapping.
Utah vs UCLA: Utah failed to cover against UCLA on Thursday night and they can blame the 6 interceptions thrown by Travis Wilson. The most impressive part of his generosity was that 5 of the 6 picks came in the 2nd half.
Utah St vs BYU: The biggest thing you wouldn’t know by blindly looking at the boxscore is that USU lost all MWC caliber QB Chuckie Keeton for the season to a knee injury. His backup Craig Harrison was 4-10 for 26 yards in relief and it’s safe to say the Aggies offense may look very different in coming weeks.
San Diego St vs Nevada: The Aztecs had a commanding 44-23 lead headed into the 4th quarter before Cody Fajardo went bonkers in comeback mode. The game tying drive for the Wolfpack culminated with 1:38 to go in regulation but their upset bid was denied in OT because of penalties. SDSU was led by a 2-headed rushing monster of Muema/Pumphrey who combined for 248 on only 35 carries.
Navy vs Air Force: Navy and Air Force amassed roughly the same amount of yardage but the Middies covered the closing number because of a 21-0 2nd half surge. Navy QB Keenan Reynolds, who was listed as questionable before the game, carried the football 28 times while no other Navy player had more than 8 touches. The two teams only ran 134 plays with a clock that never stopped but it had nothing to do with the government shutdown.
Florida St vs Maryland: There was nothing flukey about FSU’s drubbing of Maryland. The 63-0 final is what you’d expect when one team outgains the other 614-234 and compiles 33 first downs to their opposition’s 9. The bigger loss for Maryland was QB CJ Brown who left before halftime when the Terps still appeared to have an outside chance of covering the 17.
Indiana vs Penn St: Somehow the Hoosiers solved their leaky run defense during the bye week. The same team that was shredded by Navy and Missouri kept Penn St in check holding the Nittany Lions to 70 yards on 38 carries or a whopping 1.8 YPC explaining why the 4 pt road favorite lost by nearly 3 touchdowns.
Nebraska vs Illinois: Even with a backup QB in place of Taylor Martinez, Illinois showed no signs of stopping the Cornhuskers ground game. Nebraska ran the rock 50 times for 335 yards and outgained Illinois 6.7 YPC to 4.1 YPC. NU jumped out to a 23-5 lead at the half and coasted to an easy cover as 8.5 point favorites.
Temple vs Louisville: The Cardinals were anything but efficient on offense amassing 525 yards but scoring only 30 pts. One of the key metrics I use to grade teams is yards per point and elite teams are usually in the 13-15 range. Saturday Louisville had to work extra hard at 17.5 yppt. Defensively, Ville was extremely stout holding the Owls to 255 yards even as they bombed away throughout the 2nd half.
Virginia vs Ball St: A close game at the half turned into a blowout over the last 30 minutes Saturday in Charlottesville. Yardage was close to equal but the turnover margin wasn’t with the Cardinals ending +4 in that department. UVA had 7 drives in the second half; 4 ended in turnovers if you include their series that was short on downs. Let’s just say Mike London’s offense isn’t setting the world on fire.
Iowa vs Michigan St: Iowa gained 264 yards against the vaunted Spartan defense on Saturday. However, 140 yards of their total output came on consecutive drives in the 2nd quarter (both resulted in touchdowns). In the 2nd half Iowa had the ball 7 times and if you remove their 16 play 64 yard march to finish the game (when everything but the final had been determined) they gained a robust 31 yards TOTAL on the other 6 drives. WELP
Kansas vs Texas Tech: If you were holding a KU ticket +17, things looked pretty good at the the end of the 1st quarter. KU had a 10-0 lead but that’s when the wheels came off completely. Texas Tech ran off points on 9 of their next 10 series (end of half not included) and distanced themselves from the Jayhawks with a 54-6 run over the final 45 minutes.
SMU vs Rutgers: SMU tried to come back from the dead at 35-14 but couldn’t get over the hump losing 55-52 in OT. The Mustangs outgained the Scarlet Knights on the afternoon behind Garret Gilbert’s 70 pass attempts. The real box score stuffer for SMU was Jeremy Johnson who hauled in 17 balls for 217 yards. Now that’s what we call earning your paycheck at the college level.
Alabama vs Georgia St: I don’t care what happened here, won’t even bother with the box score.
Virginia Tech vs North Carolina: Bryn Renner, UNC’s starting QB, was a late scratch for Saturday’s game. UNC was done in by the turnover bug, surrendering the football on 3 occasions compared to the Hokies who made it through the contest blemish free. The problem for Tech in the winning effort was their ground game that mustered 48 yards on 34 carries leading to only 341 yards of offense on the afternoon.
Central Michigan vs Miami OH: The Redhawks had an offensive explosion against the Chippewas (by their standards) with 294 yards. However the effort wasn’t enough because it cost Don Treadwell his job as head coach. Austin Boucher continues to struggle under center for Miami and now has a stat line that reads 40-91, 524 yards passing for the season…aka a 1st half for the Baylor Bears.
Troy vs South Alabama: Just by reading the box score South Alabama was clearly the side, outgaining Troy 630-434. The Jaguars trailed 27-19 until late in the 4th when South Alabama scored 2 touchdowns in the span of 2:03. However South Alabama scored a little too quickly because despite falling behind with 48 seconds left, Troy still manufactured a TD drive of their own that culminated in a 20 yard TD pass with only :07 seconds remaining.
Marshall vs UTSA: Marshall built a 24-3 lead at the half and coasted to a relatively uneventful cover as 14 pt favorites. What was interesting was the Herd’s commitment to the ground game where they ran it 49 times but only for 125 yards, or 2.6 ypc, against a much-maligned Road Runner defense. Eric Soza was far from effective for UTSA going 10-26 throwing the ball and was eventually lifted after throwing his 3rd interception of the afternoon.
Akron vs Ohio: The Bobcats were 100% the better team on Saturday but 362 yards doesn’t typically translate into 43 points. Ohio’s defense accounted for 9 of those points and Akron’s offensive ineptitude created short fields all day for Ohio.
Michigan vs Minnesota: Their 42-13 win over Minnesota would lead you to believe all’s well for the Maize and Blue right now but the boxscore tells a different story. Michigan was only +67 in total yards but did benefit from +2 in the turnover department. The game was 28-13 deep into the 4th quarter before Michigan scored 2 TD’s in the final 2:36 to create a misleading final. The real key to the game for Michigan was going went 10-13 on 3rd down.
Syracuse vs Clemson: GROUNDED! Syracuse only threw for 74 yards against Clemson despite spending the better part of the game in full blown catch-up mode. They were able to run the ball for 323 yards however still didn’t sniff a cover as 14 pt dogs losing the turnover battle 4-2.
Oklahoma St vs Kansas St: There may be bigger problems than anyone is letting on regarding the Oklahoma St offense. Yes, they did win 33-29 against K-State but the game should never be that close when you win the turnover battle 5-1. The once proud ground game for Mike Gundy’s team has struggled of late and bears watching moving forward.
Northern Illinois vs Kent St: I’m not quite sure how the Huskies only won by 14 points when you see they outgained Kent St 698-392. NIU had no problems moving the ball through the air, 244 yards, or on the ground, 454 yards. They did struggle a bit against the Golden Flashes ground game yielding over 6ypc in the winning effort.
Tulane vs North Texas: Tulane’s offense can’t be described as anything other than a mess given its 227 yard output against North Texas. The game was 7-0 Tulane at the half and 21-7 Wave at the end of 3 but it still took a Cairo Santos FG for Tulane to win 24-21 at the bell. While the Green Wave did score 3 touchdowns, 2 of them were non offensive with a Pick 6 and return of a blocked field goal mixed in.
Cal vs Washington St: How the hell did California lose by 22 points and outgain their opponent by 15 yards? Well when in doubt look to the turnover column where Cal gave the ball away 5 times compared to 1 for the Cougars. The 11 penalties for 96 yards didn’t help the Golden Bears effort either.
Memphis vs UCF: The Tigers benefited immensely from taking on a lethargic Knights team but still couldn’t come away victorious. Memphis outgained UCF 397-270, out first downed them 25-16, and led 17-10 until the 2:05 mark of the 4th. However, the Tigers marked edge on the stat sheet wasn’t helped by their -4 turnover margin
Idaho vs Fresno St: The Bulldogs put on an absolute clinic in Moscow scoring 61 points while gaining 731 yards. Their lone blemish came in the 3rd down conversion category where Fresno went a pedestrian 6-15. Once Derek Carr left the game Fresno threw the ball a grand total of 2 times as they just played to run out the clock late.
Colorado vs Oregon: Oregon did what Oregon does: nearly doubling up their opponent in offensive output 755-374 and nearly quadrupling them on the scoreboard. Marcus Mariota bolstered his quest for the Heisman trophy accounting for 7 touchdowns in De’Anthony Thomas’ absence.
Auburn vs Ole Miss: Despite losing the game by 8, Ole Miss was the better team at Jordan Hare on Saturday. The Rebels were done in by a Tigers pick 6 and an Auburn ground game that averaged 5.9 ypc. Passing yards weren’t close with Ole Miss absolutely dominating that category 340-93.
USF vs Cincinnati: The Bulls found a way to win outright as double digit underdogs despite not scoring an offensive touchdown. Kloss knocked 4 field goals through for USF while the defense and special teams each accounted for 1 TD a piece.
New Mexico vs New Mexico St: Apparently Bob Davie has something special going in Albuquerque; UNM’s now scored 77 points combined in the first half of their last 2 games. That’s all that needs to be said about these less than average sides. New Mexico is clicking on the ground as well compiling roughly 1,000 yards on the ground over their last 2 games.
Oklahoma vs TCU: I’m not sure 210 yards qualifies as offensive output but that’s what TCU racked up against Oklahoma. Guess what? It was enough to cover as 10 pt dogs as they answered a late Sooner TD to get inside the number and lose by only a field goal.
UL Lafayette vs Texas St: It’s not often a 48-24 final looks a lot closer than the game actually was but that’s what happened here. ULL dominated from start to finish building a 45-10 lead mid-way through the 4th before TSU had a kickoff return TD and a meaningless 7 in garbage time. Yards weren’t any closer than the score with ULL dominating that category to the tune of 572-196.
Mississippi St vs LSU: Zac Mettenberger was great and so was the LSU offense but their defense was anything but in Starkville. However a 31-26 game got ugly in the 4th when LSU rattled off 28 straight points en route to a much needed SEC road win. The biggest problem for the Tigers was a leaky run defense that surrendered 216 yards to the Bulldogs.
Notre Dame vs Arizona St: Under backers caught a raw deal in Dallas when a dead shot under blew up over the final 15 minutes. ASU and Notre Dame combined for 37 points in the first 3 quarters but a 34 point explosion late pushed the game over 63. Yards were pretty close and the final score was truly indicative of the way the game was played from a side perspective.
Baylor vs West Virginia: Baylor did what Baylor does; break offensive records blowing past a Big XII milestone for single game offensive output with 864 yards. This game was 66-21 when Baylor took their foot off the gas in the 4th subsequently surrendering 21 points to the Mountaineers when the game and cover were both out of reach.
Stanford vs Washington: There was not a more misleading final score than what we saw unfold in Palo Alto. Washington was the better team in almost every facet of the game except special teams. They dominated the stat sheet against the Cardinal 30-14 in first downs and 489-279 in yardage absolutely smashing Stanford’s 100 yards of total passing offense with 350 of their own. Fortunately for Washington backers they were able to come in through the backdoor with a late TD to get inside the closing number. The real achilles heel for the Huskies all night was their kick coverage allowing Stanford to create short fields throughout the game.
