Bowling 2013/14...

emkee

The Truth Is Out There
This season...

17-12 (+12.65)

Bowl season 12/13...

16-8 (+10.82)

Colorado State v Washington State

The play...

Colorado State +5.5 (2 units)

:shake:


 
Thanks Braves.

Rams have been winning the numbers (+129 YPG) from Week 7 forward, Wazzu hasn't (-91 YPG).

Colly Lite with the better run game by a mile.

Leach 2-6 ATS in Bowl games.
 
1-0 (+2)

adding...

Little Caesars,

Pittsburgh v Bowling Green

The play...

Pittsburgh +7.5 -120 (2.4 to win 2)

MAC is whack.

BG was rolling but the time off somewhat negates that 'eye test'. BG also off their 'real Bowl', the win over North Illy. 'Shittier' team will be hungrier, imo.

Pitt is 27-3 SU vs MAC opponents all-time.

ACC Bowl dogs off a loss are 17-4-1 ATS (12-1 ATS as dogs of +3.5 or more).

:shake:
 
Thanks VK. On a pretty severe cooler, but I think we good here.

Actually see Savage having some success today. Dude has pretty good road/neutral/non-conf splits.

Devin Street out I believe, possibly a reason for some of the line move.
 
Thanks VK. On a pretty severe cooler, but I think we good here.

Actually see Savage having some success today. Dude has pretty good road/neutral/non-conf splits.

Devin Street out I believe, possibly a reason for some of the line move.

Wouldn't be the first or last time we see a huge over-reaction to a guy being out. The 0-2 MAC record is what really turned me to Pitt, I'll watch a bit of this game before I pick a side in USU/NIU as well.
 
GL Emkee...I heard a service is on BG, which is reason for the move.

Could be a number of things. The 'eye test' on Pitt isn't that great whereas BG looked pretty good.

Prefer to fade the steam when it moves towards a fave that opened between 3-6.5
 
2-0 (+4)

adding...

Military,

Marshall v Maryland

The play...

Maryland +2.5 (2 units)

Drop some thoughts a little later.

:shake:
 
Rolling with the stronger conference again. Was initially surprised the Terps opened as dogs but then again Marshall has the 'sexier' offense and that's what the people like to see.

C-USA tends to have a hard time scoring in the Bowls (averaging 26.51 points per game, the lowest of all the conferences).

Marshall was fairly weak against Bowl teams this year giving up 36.6 points per game against such teams.

Herd is 1-8-1 ATS as a road fave under Doc Holliday (since 2010). They were 2-5 ATS overall on the road this year.

Terps were 4-2 ATS away from College Park in 2013, have also covered last 5 and 6 of last 7 against non-ACC foes. Terps 4-1 SU last five as dog since late last year.

Terps have never lost a game to a mid-major conference team in a bowl game in it's history.
 
Herd are 4-26 SU in their last 30 road games v 'winning teams'.

Herd 1-9 SU v the ACC.

Herd 1-4 SU (1-3-1 ATS) v teams with a winning percentage of .400 or greater this season.
 
Line told the story in yesterday's Terd v Turtles game. Poor read on my part.

Already on...

Louisville -3.5 -120 (3 units)

Got it overnight. Line has obviously changed a fair bit, would still play at 5.5 but for a standard 2.

Looking at the Belk.
 
Believe so, Gorg. Steam has told no lies so far in the Bowls. It will tell one or two eventually though.
 
Ville full of dudes from Florida and the team is moving to the ACC next season, think we see a motivated effort. Love the defense also.

Ville 20-3 ATS vs the ACC.
 
adding...

Belk,

Cincinnati v North Carolina

The play...

North Carolina -2.5 (2 units)

Playing the line. Cincy were in this exact Bowl last season against a similar ACC opponent and favored by 10, both teams records were also pretty much identical (Cincy 9-3, Puke 6-6).

Teams returning to the same Bowl off a loss are 4-15 ATS.

:shake:
 
adding...

Buffalo Wild Wings,

Michigan v Kansas State

The play...

Kansas State -5.5-140 (1.4 to win 1)

Small play on a team with it's best opportunity to finally win a Bowl game in over a decade. Fairly decent day 'bowling' so can afford to drink a little juice on a reduced number.

:shake:
 
Very nice work today Emkee. Looking forward to seeing your take on tomorrow. Been a short week for me with all the Holiday festivities. NFL cram session manana...
 
Thanks Doggy. In the same boat regarding Week 17, see a few plays at a glance though.

Bowls...

5-1 (+8)
 
Thanks fellas.

adding...

Armed Forces,

Middle Tennessee State v Navy

The play...

Middle Tennessee State +6.5 (2 units)

Triple-option crap the Seamen run isn't as potent in the Bowls given the amount of time opposing coaches have to prepare, hence Navy getting waxed in their last 2 'post-season' appearances. The Blue Raiders returned a lot of starters from last season who faced a similar offense at Georgia Tech in 2012/13, a game they won 49-28. MTS offense no slouch either.

:shake:
 
Paul Johnson 17-1 ATS as a dog vs opponent coming off a loss.

ACC Bowl dogs off a loss are 17-4-1 ATS.
 
5-3 (+3.9)

Scuffling right now.

adding...

Liberty,

Mississippi State v Rice

The play...

Mississippi State
-7.5 +110 (2 to win 2.2)

:shake:
 
SEC > C-USA (SEC 112 - 23 SU in meetings, avg. score SEC 30.5 - C-USA 16.3), SOS mismatch here is the biggest of the Bowls (Rice 104 - Messy State 8).

SEC 35-9 SU vs non-conference opponents in 2013, C-USA 15-35.

Respect Rice and the coach but I had too ride the superior conference here.

Crowd edge - Messy State.
 
Thanks, man.

Motivation shouldn't be an issue for Messy State as they got on a roll and fought to get here.
 
adding...

Chick-Fil-A,

Duke v Texas A&M

The play...

Texas A&M -11.5 -135 (1.35 to win 1)

Going small.

Drank some juice for a reduced number. ACC trending downward this Bowl season. Johnny Foots showcase.

:shake:
 
The fact it's a 4-game slate and 3 faves have already won/covered today is the reason for it being small.
 
7-4 (+7.1)

Included TAMU -21 (+335) 2nd half play posted in the in-game last night.

Gator,

adding...

Nebraska v Georgia

The play...

Georgia -8.5 (2 units)

:shake:
 
7-6 (+2)

Weak showing in the Bowls so far. Think it's been one of the more crazier, not too mention more 'influenced' Bowls seasons on record.

Gonna swing the dick a little bit tonight.

Clemson v Ohio State

The play...

Ohio State -4 +135 (2 to win 2.7)

Selling a buck and change. Not gonna question tOSU's motivation as they haven't been to a Bowl in awhile with the sanctions and all that, so I'm anticipating them to be ready to play. Big thing for me was the coaching, Urban Meyer is a proven big game coach given time to prepare - his 7-1 ATS record in the Bowls and undefeated BCS Bowl record says that. Dabo is a straight fool and more often than not has his team hit the bed on the big stage.

If the Buckeyes win, it won't be close.

:shake:
 
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