Bowl Thread

1

165yds

Pretty much a regular
I only look for four things in Bowl season and in order of importance.

1. Who is happy to be there.

2. Fading or taking coaches who have a history of doing well preparing for Bowl games.

3. Value.

4. %'s

Three of these things apply in fading Arizona. Zona can't be happy playing in this game after that 4th quarter collapse against their rival and now have to play an early game in a shit bowl against Nevada. Rodriguez is not a good coach and has a losing record in bowl games because his teams play zero defense. He can put points on the board but that is about it, how he acted in the whole Michigan fiasco shows he is not a big time coach. They can lose this game by 20 or win by 20 nothing would surprise me but this is just such a flaky team from top down. Zero trust in this unit and more of a fade of the HC and this teams propensity of not showing up at times. I always have ML on every dog I play and bowl season will be no different.

Nevada +9
 
BYU -3

See number 2 and 4.

Byu flat out owns this team and look at what a hip dog SDST is, that alone is enough to make you run from them. Probably be an ugly game and cover but should find a way.
 
Ball State +7

Falls under 1,2 and 3. Ball State has been awful in Bowl games but O'Leary is 1-3 which is the more important stat. Being close to home could be a problem for UCF. UCF should have had a much better season losing some heart breakers, no way they give a shit Beef O' Brady bowl playing a MAC team. Much better team and more physical but that really means nothing Bowl season.

Next up will be SMU which will have a chance to win SU.
 
ULL -6.5

Decided to throw something on this game because of my dislike for ECU, one of the biggest frauds this bowl season. That defense will get exposed today and can see a DD win.

Dumb pick yesterday, I know better. After seeing the forums and %'s I knew that bet was mushed and should have bought out.
 
SMU ML +340 forget the points

Sometimes you have to go with the value and you will not find more than this Bowl. Stats have always meant nothing to me and if you are looking at them Fresno wins by 30. They may win by 30 but to me this is a coin flip game because of the intangibles June Jones brings. New coach for Fresno but they don't have the best track record of late in Bowls while Jones has been successful especially as a big dog while Fresno has been awful as a big fav. If this game was played anywhere but Hawaii I would not be on the ML but another slight edge and if (yes it is a big if) they can keep the TO ratio even they will have a chance to win it late with 4 minutes left and I am getting better than 3-1. My favorite kind of game where it is the only one and nearly everyone will be on the fav, kind of situation you see the big upset more so than usual. Fresno has played nobody and their wins are paper wins IMO, that is why looking at stats at a game like this can be dangerous. SMU has played well at times against superior competition and a much tougher schedule and can pull this upset off. Rules 2.3,4 make the cut for this Bowl. GL everyone.

So far 3-1 Ats Bowl Season
 
Playing the dog in this bowl has been profitable the last few years. GL, like this play as well.
 
Was looking at them but a bit concerned about injuries in the SMU secondary. Will probably still be on them in some fashion. GL.
 
C-MAN said:
Was looking at them but a bit concerned about injuries in the SMU secondary. Will probably still be on them in some fashion. GL.
Click to expand...

Just noticed that as well...I assume SMU will will pound the ball with Zach Line, which will effect the total too...
 
Thanks guys and Merry Christmas.

Had to throw some on +13 and more on the ML at +360. This will be the biggest bet for me this Bowl season. GL everyone.
 
165yds said:
SMU ML +340 forget the points

Sometimes you have to go with the value and you will not find more than this Bowl. Stats have always meant nothing to me and if you are looking at them Fresno wins by 30. They may win by 30 but to me this is a coin flip game because of the intangibles June Jones brings. New coach for Fresno but they don't have the best track record of late in Bowls while Jones has been successful especially as a big dog while Fresno has been awful as a big fav. If this game was played anywhere but Hawaii I would not be on the ML but another slight edge and if (yes it is a big if) they can keep the TO ratio even they will have a chance to win it late with 4 minutes left and I am getting better than 3-1. My favorite kind of game where it is the only one and nearly everyone will be on the fav, kind of situation you see the big upset more so than usual. Fresno has played nobody and their wins are paper wins IMO, that is why looking at stats at a game like this can be dangerous. SMU has played well at times against superior competition and a much tougher schedule and can pull this upset off. Rules 2.3,4 make the cut for this Bowl. GL everyone.

So far 3-1 Ats Bowl Season
Click to expand...

an_clap.gif
 
Bowling Green +7

Anytime you have an interim coach in the Bowl game it is always a good idea to fade. Last year they were 2-6 and this angle never gets old. I've watched SJST play because I bet them quite a bit this year and they are very impressive but BG has a good enough defense to stick around and play well. I don't see anyone running away and hiding, looking for a close nip and tuck game for 60 minutes. Rules 2,3,4 apply.

Duke +9.5 and +300 but more on ML

Did I mention interim coach? Home game for a team that hasn't played a Bowl game in nearly two decades will be focused and want this game more. Cincy seems like they lose their HC every year around this time and don't like the spot. Duke will have a chance to win this game late because one thing they can do is score points and move the ball because they have players on offense. They need to turn this into a shootout because they won't get many stops, they have to at least stop the big play and make Cincy earn it. The sharp play seems like it is Cincy but I am not buying it, coin flip game at 3-1 I'll bite every time. Duke has rules 1,2,3, in their favor which is an auto big play on the ML even though I hate to do it. Another game where looking at stats mean nothing, bowl season is about motivation and coaching.
 
165yds said:
Duke +9.5 and +300 but more on ML

Did I mention interim coach? Home game for a team that hasn't played a Bowl game in nearly two decades will be focused and want this game more. Cincy seems like they lose their HC every year around this time and don't like the spot. Duke will have a chance to win this game late because one thing they can do is score points and move the ball because they have players on offense. They need to turn this into a shootout because they won't get many stops, they have to at least stop the big play and make Cincy earn it. The sharp play seems like it is Cincy but I am not buying it, coin flip game at 3-1 I'll bite every time. Duke has rules 1,2,3, in their favor which is an auto big play on the ML even though I hate to do it. Another game where looking at stats mean nothing, bowl season is about motivation and coaching.
Click to expand...

I like it...hope that ML hit for u
GL 165
 
WV -2.5 2nd half

Syracuse is playing not to lose. At some point WV will break some big plays on offense.
 
nbafan88 said:
Thoughts on vandy?
Click to expand...
I could give a bunch of reasons why Vandy will win but the bottom line it's a sucker bet to take NCST. This is a dog with no bite, just look at the forums before kickoff nearly everyone will be on this ridiculously hip dog. I might believe NCST has a good chance of covering if the line held steady but feel this will go to 7.5 begging for more dog money. That line should not get off of 7 with all of the NCST love, it should go down but it won't which speaks volumes IMO. Vandy has a very very strong defense and in Bowl games I tend to lean defense, by the middle of the third quarter you may see NCST lay down because their defense will probably be on the field most of the game getting run on and just give up.
 
Not buying this lame line move, just bought some more Iowa State at +2.5.

Iowa State is just in another class, Tulsa can have as much revenge in their hearts as they want because it won't matter.
 
165yds said:
I could give a bunch of reasons why Vandy will win but the bottom line it's a sucker bet to take NCST. This is a dog with no bite, just look at the forums before kickoff nearly everyone will be on this ridiculously hip dog. I might believe NCST has a good chance of covering if the line held steady but feel this will go to 7.5 begging for more dog money. That line should not get off of 7 with all of the NCST love, it should go down but it won't which speaks volumes IMO. Vandy has a very very strong defense and in Bowl games I tend to lean defense, by the middle of the third quarter you may see NCST lay down because their defense will probably be on the field most of the game getting run on and just give up.
Click to expand...

This needs to be brought up......was leaning heavily towards NCST until I read this and took Vandy -7. You nailed it, thank you!
 
Happy New Year 165yds. Been reading all you have to say and thanks for your work...been great. Took Vandy today. Looking forward to tomorrow.:shake:
 
Northern Illinois +500 worth a nice chunk out of principle. Completely legitimate chance fsu pulls off a complete no show and loses by dd themselves. Gap in what this game means to both teams is the most significant maybe ever.
 
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