-bowl thread-

broadwayjoe

broadwayjoe

May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
locked in a few early ones that i may add to; will definitely add to oklahoma closer to gametime...hoping that it goes up. that may even be a 15 unit play for me

my bowl plays are 3, 5, 10 units rather than 1, 3, 5 as i usually do much better during bowl season. there are only 3 that i am eye-balling to be 10units or more. lost money last year in the bowls for the first time ever...looking to bounce back.

3u - Penn State +10

3u - Cinci -2 (-105)

3u - Utah +10.5

3u - Ohio State +10.5

3u - Oklahoma +3


will try to at least get some brief thoughts down on each, and will likely play every one in some capacity. look forward to breaking down these bowls with you guys.

:cheers:

FINAL CARD IN POST #20
 
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gl joe ... first glance...love cinci, psu is a ballsy one, not sure what to think of osu yet...need to get a feel for the teams mentallity. my first thought was tx will crush us but i do like how our d matches up...like the utes...okl...don't see how fla gets any stops at all...surprised how much fla love i see...like the over in that game and have not even seen a total!! may be on every over anyway.
 
also think iowa will be my strongest play of the bowl season. i do realize there is no line yet but i don't care. that jumped out at me loud when i was reviewing all the matchups. huge.
 
10u - TCU -2.5 (3u at -1.5; 7u at -2.5)

3u - BYU +3.5

3u - Troy -4

3u - Wisconsin +4.5

3u - NC State +7

3u - Oklahoma State -3

3u - Pitt +3
 
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grabbed what turned out to be a couple of good lines, but i'm losing some here as well...memphis line is pissing me off...thought we'd see 14s....waiting that one out for now. i will likely not play air force at less than 3. waiting for miami to get to 7.5. i will neaten this thread up later, just locking them in as i go right now

also upgraded tcu in above post...

3u - Navy +3

3u - Nevada -1

3u - Western Michigan +3

3u - Vandy +4

3u - Iowa -3
 
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leans at this point:


memphis +13.5 -- line dropping
nd +1.5
unc pk
miami +6.5 -- will play at 7.5
la tech +2
air force +3 --waiting for over 3; but line dropping
kansas -10
gt -3.5
ga -7.5 -- on my way to being priced out
ole miss +6
buff +4 --- may only play ml
tulsa +2.5 --- waiting for over 3



games i can't seem to figure out yet---fresno/csu, fau/cmu, northwestern/mizzou, clemson/neb, ecu/kentucky
 
I sort of have a lean to penn st too .. but reading a lot of good points for the usc side. What makes you like the lions ?
 
Beware of the Big 12 officiating angle when betting B-12 teams this year. The Big 12 Commissioner's Office mandated that officials only call holding in take down situations. Everything else is fair game.

Harrel went something like 600 pass attempts without a holding penalty called. OU held Texas and Orakpo repeatedly at the Cotton Bowl this year. Check the penalty and sack stats from the ou vs. WVA game last year.
 
vegaskyle said:
I sort of have a lean to penn st too .. but reading a lot of good points for the usc side. What makes you like the lions ?
Click to expand...

1. i don't think penn state is 10 points worse than any team in the country. they have no glaring weaknesses, have played tough games on the road...in all honesty could have covered at iowa let alone win su--and that's not biased as i had iowa for a large wager in that one. if they win that game, are they 10 pt dogs here? prob 6. have been one of the more underrated teams this year with the exception of that game

2. line value/common opponents. they went into the shoe and beat the bucks at pretty much full power as 2-3 pt favs. bucks were about in the same range as this line is set at usc without their two best players. beanie and pryor play in that game the line has to be lower. so i'm going to say the line would be about 7.5 or 8. well linesmakers were basically saying that penn state was 5-6 pts better than the buckeyes at full power, making them about 6-7 points better without their two best players. so how the hell is penn state dogged more than the buckeyes? i realize usc blew ohio state out and penn state lost at iowa, but is it worth this much of an adjustment. imo, no way in hell. oh nevermind, i guess the larger than necessary adjustment comes on the fact that everyone thinks the big10 conference is so good. wait, noone thinks that. but they both beat the shit out of oregon state, the other common opponent. wait...

3. schedule strength. it's not often that you can say penn state had a much more challenging schedule than someone, but they definitely did. they were tested a lot more in the big10 than usc was. usc proved to me---nothing. besides ohio state, which they "dominated" after some gift turnovers from a guy that has a first name of todd, they haven't done anything at all to impress me in that weak weak weak pac10. they beat virginia's ass, yeah so did uconn. virginia was so much of a weaker team than them. they obviously caught the bucks at the best time possible. they blew out oregon -- the week after losing to an inferior oregon state team and when oregon was forced to play their third string qb. loaded up the box and shut down the run completely. they beat asu; so did unlv. arizona played them tough. they beat cal at home and didn't cover in a game that cal split time between riley and longshore, had a td called back, and got into usc territory several times to come up empty. the other wins don't mean shit and aren't even worth noting. i haven't seen the pac10 this bad in a long time. the strength of schedule is a key component for linesmakers, and this sos is greatly skewed imo because of a weak conference that people are underestimating and because of the time they caught their out of conf opponents and the seasons those teams ended up with. this concludes that usc cannot be anything but overvalued at this point.

4. mistakes. this team has crushed nearly every opponent, but still has almost 75% more penalties than their opposition and has thrown 12 picks. how is that even possible with virtually no pressure in your blowouts. things like this turns games around when the game is tight. psu has a 5.25:1 td/int ratio between their qbs and usc has a 2.67:1 td/int ratio, when psu has played in more tight games.

5. matchups/flow of the game. tell me where usc is better to the extent that they should be 10 pt favs. don't give me the "another slow grind it out big10 team" bs, because this penn state team is fast, creative on offense, very explosive, and very good on defense. and very well coached. in what should be a very low scoring game, do you wanna lay this many points? compared with the percentage of a total, that is an enormous number. motivation has to favor psu or be even as well.


this line is built on history of usc vs big10 and not much more. this is not a typical big10 team. usc may be the best team in the country like some people say--but they have not proven that to me. i'm confident penn state can hang with anybody...even more confident than i am that usc can. while usc has come out and basically said they don't even want to play in this bowl, penn state has taken a big kick in the pants by being dogged by this much. this should be a dogfight. i won't be playing ohio state ml, but i'll be playing this one
 
not a whole lot of hard facts off the cuff kyle, just rambling the first few things that popped into my head. i'll try have some more detailed stuff closer to gameday
 
Broadway, Well, we disagree on two of the big lined games but unlike Alabama, I will definitely have a USC ticket at -10.

I watched the whole Penn St/Ohio St game...unfortunately; slightly better than watching grass grow. Ohio St...up 6-3...about 12 minutes to go in the game...driving the ball at midfield and the Frosh Phenom fumbles and Penn St recovers. B/U QB Devlin comes in and Penn St rolls the rest of the way. Saw nothing that nite that indicated Penn St was better than the Buckeyes and if they lost that game (read: if Pryor doesn't turn the ball over) they'd be going to Orlando to play Georgia in the Capital One Bowl. Penn St could do NOTHING against Ohio St...how are they gonna move the ball on USC? This has 'boring game' written all over it and while I'm not expecting an Illinois type beatdown, something along the lines of 20-3 or 24-7 seems very reasonable to me. This Penn St team is not as good as the Michigan team that got blasted by USC two years ago in the RB.
 
what impressed me the most about penn state is even though they were in one of the toughest places to play at the shoe and they couldn't get much going, they did not make the mistake and forced the mistake. i guess i disagree with you in that i think this penn state team is better than michigan was and i think the usc team is not as good. i guess we'll have to see.

i didn't think there was any way in hell penn state could come into the shoe and beat us. i was wrong. i didn't think they could blow out michigan state like they did or cover against illinois. they did. i didn't think they'd be in the position they were at half at iowa either. or blow out wisky on the road in a night game. after betting against this team all year, i have seen first hand what kind of team they are...a damn good one. i'd be absolutely shocked if usc holds psu to 3 or 7...this isn't oregon with their 3rd qb in, or virginia, or the buckeyes with boeckman. very good running football team, several options, and explosive. i think people are definitely underestimating penn state's offense.
 
broadwayjoe said:
not a whole lot of hard facts off the cuff kyle, just rambling the first few things that popped into my head. i'll try have some more detailed stuff closer to gameday
Click to expand...


There were a lot of good points in there. I think for penn st bettors it will be especially important to stay within a score early because i don't think it's a backdoor type of situation.

I think pennst went around the world in perception. They were underrated to start the year , then became overrated midway , before becoming underrated ( self-included ) late again.

I agree with you that it is hard to expect 10 to be an easy cover when usc has struggled to score against lesser defenses despite complete and total defensive domination in those games , putting them in good positions all game long.

I also agree concerning line value. By power rating this should not be as high as 10 points ( though this is for all intents and purposes a home game for the condoms ) and by comparison to previous lines.

However , usc has been getting steadily better imo and i believe they do that most years , though not because of coaching ( save chow who is no lnger there ). They lose so many guys to the nfl every year that they need time to come together as a team and play like a cohesive unit. They also play a lot of young guys that mature throughout the course of a season. That is one of the reasons they perform well in bowls imo.

lean your way but think the under might be a better value ?? what do you see as the probable final score ?
 
Love the thoughts on PSU joe..just worried about Daryl Clark effing up..he wasn't so great against tOSU and seems to make retarded decisions against fast defenses....only thing that's keeping me off PSU now..
 
thanks to yanks for the format

EagleBank Bowl, Washington DC - Saturday, 12/20
Navy vs Wake Forest
Navy +3 (3u)
Wake 2h -3 (1.5u)

New Mexico Bowl, Albuquerque - Saturday, 12/20
Fresno St vs Colorado St
CSU ML +120 (3u)

MagicJack St Pete Bowl, St Petersburg - Saturday, 12/20
Memphis vs S Florida
Memphis +12 (3u)

Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl, Las Vegas - Saturday, 12/20
BYU vs Arizona
BYU +3.5 (3u)
Arizona -3 (3u)
BYU/Arizona OVER 61.5 (3u)

R&L Carriers New Orl Bowl, New Orleans - Sunday, 12/21
Troy vs S Mississippi
Troy -4 (5u)

Poinsettia Bowl, San Diego - Tuesday, 12/23
TCU vs Boise St
TCU -2.5 (7u)
TCU -1.5 (3u)

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, Honolulu - Wednesday, 12/24
Notre Dame vs Hawaii
ND -1 (3u)

Motor City Bowl, Detroit - Friday, 12/26
Florida Atl vs C Michigan
FAU +6 (3u)
FAU +7 (2u)
FAU ML +240 (2u)

Meineke Car Care Bowl, Charlotte - Saturday, 12/27
W Virginia vs N Carolina
UNC +1.5 (3u)
West Virginia/UNC OVER 47.5 (3u)

Champs Sports Bowl, Orlando - Saturday, 12/27
Wisconsin vs Florida St
Wisconsin +4.5 (3u)
Wisconsin +6 (2u)
Wisconsin ML +230 (2u)

Emerald Bowl, San Francisco - Saturday, 12/27
Miami vs California
Miami +8 (5u)

Independence Bowl, Shreveport - Sunday, 12/28
N Illinois vs Louisiana Tech
La Tech +1.5 (3u)

Papajohns.com Bowl, Birmingham - Monday, 12/29
NCST vs Rutgers
NC State +7 (3u)
NC State +7.5 (2u)

Valero Alamo Bowl, San Antonio - Monday, 12/29
Northwestern vs Missouri
Northwestern +12.5 (3u)

Humanitarian Bowl, Boise - Tuesday, 12/30
Nevada vs Maryland
Nevada -1 (3u)
Nevada -2 (2u)

Texas Bowl, Houston - Tuesday, 12/30
W Michigan vs Rice
Western Michigan +3 (3u)

Pacific Life Holiday Bowl, San Diego - Tuesday, 12/30
Oregon vs Oklahoma St
Oklahoma State -3 (3u)

Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth - Wednesday, 12/31
Air Force vs Houston
AF/Houston OVER 64

Brut Sun Bowl, El Paso - Wednesday, 12/31
Pittsburgh vs Oregon St
Pitt +3 (3u)

Music City Bowl, Nashville - Wednesday, 12/31
Boston College vs Vanderbilt
Vandy +4 (3u)

Insight Bowl, Tempe - Wednesday, 12/31
Minnesota vs Kansas
Kansas -10 (+105) (3u)

Chick-fil-A Bowl, Atlanta - Wednesday, 12/31
LSU vs Georgia Tech
GT -3.5 (5u)

Outback Bowl, Tampa - Thursday, 1/1
Iowa vs S Carolina
Iowa -3 (3u)
Iowa -3.5 (2u)

Capital One Bowl, Orlando - Thursday, 1/1
Michigan St vs Georgia
Georgia -7.5 (3u)
MSU/Georgia OVER 54

Gator Bowl, Jacksonville - Thursday, 1/1
Clemson vs Nebraska
Clemson -2.5 (3u)

Rose Bowl, Pasadena - Thursday, 1/1
Penn St vs USC
PSU +10 (3u)
PSU +10 -115 (2u)

FedEx Orange Bowl, Miami - Thursday, 1/1
Virginia Tech vs Cincinnati
Cinci -2 -105 (3u)

AT&T Cotton Bowl, Dallas - Friday, 1/2
Mississippi vs Texas Tech
Ole Miss +5.5 (5u)

AutoZone Liberty Bowl, Memphis - Friday, 1/2
E Carolina vs Kentucky
ECU -3 (3u)

Allstate Sugar Bowl, New Orleans - Friday, 1/2
Utah vs Alabama
Utah +10.5 (3u)
Utah +10 (7u)
Utah ML +320 (3u)

International Bowl, Toronto - Saturday, 1/3
Buffalo vs UConn
Buffalo ML +160 (3u)

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, Glendale - Monday, 1/5
Ohio St vs Texas
Ohio State +10.5 (3u)
Ohio State +9.5 (2u)

GMAC Bowl, Mobile - Tuesday, 1/6
Ball St vs Tulsa
Ball State/Tulsa OVER 77 (3u)

BCS National Championship Game, Miami - Thursday, 1/8
Florida vs Oklahoma
Oklahoma +3 (3u)
Oklahoma +3 +100 (2u)
Oklahoma ML +130 (2u)

may add a few more mls, and may add one or two more totals...but that pretty much sums it up.

if it weren't for granger, oklahoma likely would have been a 15 unit play..

i'll take any requests, otherwise i'll start with some brief thoughts on this weekend's games and hopefully have more time to contribute this weekend...have popped in and out of threads with thoughts on certain games. ton of information this year; thank you to all that have shared their information and opinions
 
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navy -- well i honestly thought about buying this play back when it went to 2.5 because of all of the good information on the other side. i do think the whole revenge game thing is a little skewed and doesn't apply much here. service academies are so disciplined they won't be lax or take an opponent lightly because they have already beat them, so that's definitely out. as a matter of fact, most quotes i've read make it seem like wake is the team that didn't really want to play navy here in another game. has navy gotten lucky quite a bit this year? absolutely. but wake was the team that had high expectations at the beginning of the year which i predicted they wouldn't even come close to living up to. not even their wins were impressive to me. they have a solid qb, very good special teams, and are very well-coached though. all of the stuff about skinner redeeming himself is very legit and i think he will redeem himself and the offense will look much better. and he has his left tackle this tiem around. but i'm not sure skinner can put on his superman cape and make all the problems they had disappear. they rushed for 1.4 ypc in that game and haven't ran the ball well all year. it doesn't get much easier defending the option the second time around, wake hasn't had to deal with teams that run the ball very often and when they did they were rarely impressive, and they gave up 4.9 ypc in game one. it's tough not to commit turnovers when you're forced into long situations all the time with no running game. i think wake probably runs a more efficient offense and scores more points, but i also think navy is running that option very well with their navigator back at this point and i expect them to score more as well...wake probably won't even slow them down. also all the value was gone, but i think a lot of that was because the line was ridiculous when they played the first time. i mean, 16...seriously? was that really the line? it seems incredibly silly at this point. one more thing about game 1 is that enhada got injured in the second quarter and ended up being out until that army game. i know some say that it's not significant because athletic ability of bryant is probably better, but i do for a couple of reasons. he moved the ball better than bryant in that game and that could have been due to the fact that bryant didn't get many snaps during the week. that is important because had enhada been in the whole game, maybe they get another score or two. even if the 2nd qb is better, rarely is it a positive for the team when the starter goes out mid-game. his leadership and knowledge of the offense is far better than bryants--mostly the intangibles imo. he also takes care of the ball a lot better imo--which is obviously key in an option offense. and if you aren't familar with his story about this past year, you should get familar with it because i think it's going to bring a lot of emotion to this game for the entire team. great story, and i'll be honest--i got suckered into it a bit, because i'd really like to see this kid end his career with a win.
 
csu -- going against my initial instinct after reading a lot of what jpicks had to say because i had originally thought that fresno would have the advantage in the trenches, but they have been atrociously overrated all year, and because of the distorted self-image they have of themselves, i doubt they are too excited about this game...just too big of a motivational edge to ignore as csu will be maxxed out of their minds to be here as they were probably as surprised as we are. neither really deserve to be here, and i'll take my chances that the motivational factors will outweight the talent in the trenches.

usf -- another team with a very disappointing season that will not be interested in this bowl vs a team that i believe can upset the bulls, whom if you have watched this year could possibly be the worst disappointment in college football. it's too bad because they're well-coached imo but they just don't have much leadership or cohesion on the field, and grothe's head just hasn't seemed right this year. have a lot of talent on defense that hasn't executed. memphis is fast and good offensively and has the type of defense to contain this type of offense imo--notice i said contain. some good info that i agree with in horses thread (i believe it was horses)

byu/ariz over - as you can see i bought out of my byu play. i think the pac10 is incredibly overrated and vise versa for the mwc, but i just can't see how ariz doesn't move the ball very effectively against byu's secondary. another team disappointed in byu, but i still think they come out guns blazing and put some points up. defense? nope. can't really see how one of these teams doesn't get into the 30s, and i expect a close game, thus the over. obviously refer to the mwc thread on this one as well
 
awesome thread as always joe!

been leaning wake but really thinking navy may be the right side. some great points and enhada is really the player most influencing me. agree he makes the middies offense so much more efficient and the player who benefits most from his presence is shun white. white is one of my favorite college athletes and i think a sleeper to have a successful pro career if so chooses. when enhada is in the game, his direction of the option always seems to get shun the ball in the correct spots and as a result whites impact on the game is much more a factor. have not made my play yet but may be joining you and going against the board on this one.
 
Great thread BroadwayJoe; fwiw it's worth...I've come around to your thinking a little bit on the Rose Bowl. I will likely pass the game but I won't be giving the Nittany Lions and Paterno that many points with so much time to prepare. This should be a low-scoring, tightly contested ball game.
 
"fwiw it's worth...I've come around to your thinking a little bit on the Rose Bowl."

it's worth a lot...you're one of the best cappers around here. glad to hear it. was starting to think we'd be against each other quite a bit, which was worrisome
 
scraps@midnight said:
awesome thread as always joe!

been leaning wake but really thinking navy may be the right side. some great points and enhada is really the player most influencing me. agree he makes the middies offense so much more efficient and the player who benefits most from his presence is shun white. white is one of my favorite college athletes and i think a sleeper to have a successful pro career if so chooses. when enhada is in the game, his direction of the option always seems to get shun the ball in the correct spots and as a result whites impact on the game is much more a factor. have not made my play yet but may be joining you and going against the board on this one.
Click to expand...

thanks scraps...be careful coming to the dark side....you're right about white--beast!
 
vegaskyle said:
Nice to see you put the mustard on tcu as well.

gl this bowl season. great thread.
Click to expand...


one last time fading boise. i swear. hahha. looks like we'll have a very happy board, or a pretty pissed off one. i haven't seen anyone on boise i don't think
 
well i'm on the darkside joe! heres to white rushing for 200 this morning
:cheers:'an_horse''an_horse''an_horse''an_horse''an_horse''an_horse'
 
610x.jpg
 
Against you on Navy...what a shocker. LOL

I am with you on TCU and Georgia, my two biggest plays tho.

GL bud!
 
well i'm going to buy some back and hope for a middle...why not?

don't wanna post it on my final card in post #20 because i don't want to edit it, so i'll keep a separate record for 2h wagers and such...

adding:

Wake Forest -3 2h (1.5u)
 
-8.80 after that fau straight up win.

seems terrible, but i'm still in okay shape since my min play for the bowls is 3 units....and if tcu would have hit---well that would have been a 20 unit swing so i would obviously be doing very well right now.

if i hit 2 of 3 tomorrow i'll be in good shape
 
i know sorry for the late posts...i kind of talked myself into the over in the last one while trying to help some people see the other side...

this one was just due to the increased value within the last couple of hours here...
 
i realize that i have a bad number on miami, but i still like it at that number and i can't justify that line movement even with the miami ineligibles. will not be tempted by that moneyline, but i do think it's out of control

headin out...bol to everyone
 
+5.70 for bowl season at this point...finally back in the black with a little breathing room.

8-1 since a bad start and that dreadful tcu loss...finally starting to hit my groove.

honestly worried about just how much the big12 is overrated after this embarrassing mizzou performance, but i think it has to do with the big10 being underrated as well

i should have some time tomorrow afternoon to discuss tomorrow's bowls

a lot of you seem to be doing well; let's keep this up
 
broadwayjoe said:
+5.70 for bowl season at this point...finally back in the black with a little breathing room.

8-1 since a bad start and that dreadful tcu loss...finally starting to hit my groove.

honestly worried about just how much the big12 is overrated after this embarrassing mizzou performance, but i think it has to do with the big10 being underrated as well

i should have some time tomorrow afternoon to discuss tomorrow's bowls

a lot of you seem to be doing well; let's keep this up
Click to expand...


we have the best cfb bowl forum on the net .. are you kidding ??

betwen you and rex and hunt and nut and crimsonk and tru and rjesq and BAr and fondy and shsuhorn and shark and timh and jpicks and tee and CB and horses and azzie and etg and yanks and gman and pags and cubsker and nawlins and vanzack and hoops and ostate and one and on and on and on and on ..... Who can compete with this lineup ??

keep up the nice run joe , you deserve it.
 
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