JML4481
Pretty much a regular
I don't often have time to post my own handicapping notes, but I have managed to find time last night after some family fun time in the snow. I hope this adds something to your capping.
<TBODY>
[TD="width: 14%"][/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] Sag S.O.S
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] OPP YPPA
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] OPP YPRA
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] YPPA
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] YPRA
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] NET YPP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] RICE
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 113
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 8.2
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 5.1
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.1
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.2
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] -1.1
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] AIR FORCE
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 8.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.7
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 8.9
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 5.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] -.2
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] WEST VA
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 19
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 9.9
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 3.5
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.9
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 5.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 0.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] SYRACUSE
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 45
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.9
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 3.9
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.9
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.2
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] .3
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] ARIZ ST
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 37
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 5.6
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.2
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.6
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] .7
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] NAVY
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 94
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.8
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.5
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 8.5
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 5.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] -.3
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] OREGON ST
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 6.2
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.1
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.7
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 3.6
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] .7
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] TEXAS
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 8
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 8.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.8
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 8.6
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.7
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] .4
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] TCU
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 11
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 6.9
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 3.5
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.3
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 3.7
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 0.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] MICH ST
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 30
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 5.3
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 3.3
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 6.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] .7
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] VANDY
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 42
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 5.6
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.2
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 8.1
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 3.8
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] .7
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] NC STATE
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 74
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.4
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.1
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 2.8
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] -.7
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] USC
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 12
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 6.8
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 8.4
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 5.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 1.5
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] GA TECH
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 55
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 8.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.2
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 8.8
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 5.2
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] .1
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] TULSA
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 102
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 6.7
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 3.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 6.4
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.8
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] .8
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] IOWA ST
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 6
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.6
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.3
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 6.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] -1.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] LSU
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 28
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 6.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 3.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.3
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.3
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] .9
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] CLEMSON
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 68
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.4
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.3
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 9.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.4
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] .6
[/TD]
</TBODY>
Breaking it down:
Rice/Air Force:
-Not much of an edge for strength of schedule, so stats can be taken at face value.
-Both teams similar on defense, however Air Force gets the nod on defense allowing less yards per pass and rush attempt, along with allowing less yards per game. Air Force also has the edge on offense. And completing the circle is the Net Yards Per Play, where Air Force has a +.9 advantage.
Play: Air Force-2
West Virginia/Syracuse:
-Decent edge in strength of schedule to West Virginia
-Virtual home game for Syracuse
-West Virginia has the WORST pass defense in the nation-check on weather to see if wind or precipitation is a factor.
-Slight Net YPP edge to Cuse and getting points, at home, with a solid qb going against the worst pass d in the nation.
Play: Syracuse+3.5
Arizona St/Navy
-Huge strength of schedule edge to Arizona St
-Arz St with the better defense, Navy with the better offense
-Net YPP advantage to Arizona St at +1.0, so it should be a win for the Sun Devils
-Military teams with time to prepare with nothing else on the schedule is not something I’d want to make a living going against, especially when laying over a touchdown, and here you get 2 touchdowns.
Play: Navy+14
Texas/Oregon St
-Not much of an edge with strength of schedule
-Oregon St with the better defense with regards to YPPA and YPRA, along with allowing less overall yards per game. Texas with the better offense.
-Game is in Texas
-Distractions of arrests for Texas?
-Mack Brown back against the wall?
-Oregon St hasn’t been to a bowl in a few years-should get max effort
Play: Did like Oregon St at 3, but local has 4 now....thinking...
TCU/Michigan St
-Similar teams in almost every single way, except for TCU’s vulnerability against the pass.
Play: Too close to call…..12 pack bet on Michigan St
Vanderbilt/NC State
-One of my top 5 bowl bets
-Everything is lining up Vanderbilt, from the stats, to the better defense, to motivation, to location( virtual home game), to the oppositions distractions,…you name it, I love it…hope it stays at 7, but won’t be surprised if this hits 9.5 on game day,
Play: Vanderbilt Motherfuckin’ Commodores-7
USC/Ga Tech
-From a game I love in Vandy/NCState, to one that has quite possibly lost all of my interest
-Strength of schedule advantage to USC
-Freshman QB for USC, how focused is he knowing that he's got the keys to the car next year already?
-Kiffin is a dumbass
-Stats say USC woodshed, but I’m not sure about it
Play: Lean Over 64
Tulsa/Iowa St
- You can look at the stats all you want from these two teams, but the strength of schedule disparity isn’t even close and I think these teams are moreso closer to even than the +1.8 Net YPP advantage that Tulsa holds over them.
- This game is a classic motivational angle game. These two teams already played this year, so simply speaking, Iowa St who won last time can very well be strongly disinterested, while Tulsa tries to avenge their loss from earlier in the season.
Play: Lean Tulsa-1 and Over 51
LSU/Clemson
-Better strength of schedule for LSU, better overall D, both teams with dimwit head coaches.
- I have a weird feeling this game will be very close throughout.
Play: Couldn’t argue either side being thrown into some exotics or a shits n giggles Clemson ML play since their game last bowl season was an embarassment.
Closing line:Favs are currently 7-7 and Unders are 8-6
:shake:
<TBODY>
[TD="width: 14%"][/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] Sag S.O.S
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] OPP YPPA
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] OPP YPRA
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] YPPA
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] YPRA
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] NET YPP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] RICE
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 113
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 8.2
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 5.1
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.1
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.2
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] -1.1
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] AIR FORCE
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 8.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.7
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 8.9
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 5.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] -.2
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] WEST VA
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 19
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 9.9
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 3.5
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.9
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 5.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 0.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] SYRACUSE
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 45
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.9
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 3.9
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.9
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.2
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] .3
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] ARIZ ST
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 37
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 5.6
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.2
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.6
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] .7
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] NAVY
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 94
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.8
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.5
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 8.5
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 5.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] -.3
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] OREGON ST
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 6.2
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.1
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.7
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 3.6
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] .7
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] TEXAS
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 8
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 8.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.8
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 8.6
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.7
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] .4
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] TCU
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 11
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 6.9
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 3.5
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.3
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 3.7
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 0.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] MICH ST
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 30
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 5.3
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 3.3
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 6.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] .7
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] VANDY
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 42
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 5.6
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.2
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 8.1
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 3.8
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] .7
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] NC STATE
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 74
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.4
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.1
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 2.8
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] -.7
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] USC
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 12
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 6.8
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 8.4
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 5.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 1.5
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] GA TECH
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 55
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 8.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.2
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 8.8
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 5.2
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] .1
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] TULSA
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 102
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 6.7
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 3.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 6.4
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.8
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] .8
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] IOWA ST
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 6
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.6
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.3
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 6.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] -1.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] LSU
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 28
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 6.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 3.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.3
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.3
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] .9
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] CLEMSON
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 68
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 7.4
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.3
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 9.0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] 4.4
[/TD]
[TD="width: 14%"] .6
[/TD]
</TBODY>
Breaking it down:
Rice/Air Force:
-Not much of an edge for strength of schedule, so stats can be taken at face value.
-Both teams similar on defense, however Air Force gets the nod on defense allowing less yards per pass and rush attempt, along with allowing less yards per game. Air Force also has the edge on offense. And completing the circle is the Net Yards Per Play, where Air Force has a +.9 advantage.
Play: Air Force-2
West Virginia/Syracuse:
-Decent edge in strength of schedule to West Virginia
-Virtual home game for Syracuse
-West Virginia has the WORST pass defense in the nation-check on weather to see if wind or precipitation is a factor.
-Slight Net YPP edge to Cuse and getting points, at home, with a solid qb going against the worst pass d in the nation.
Play: Syracuse+3.5
Arizona St/Navy
-Huge strength of schedule edge to Arizona St
-Arz St with the better defense, Navy with the better offense
-Net YPP advantage to Arizona St at +1.0, so it should be a win for the Sun Devils
-Military teams with time to prepare with nothing else on the schedule is not something I’d want to make a living going against, especially when laying over a touchdown, and here you get 2 touchdowns.
Play: Navy+14
Texas/Oregon St
-Not much of an edge with strength of schedule
-Oregon St with the better defense with regards to YPPA and YPRA, along with allowing less overall yards per game. Texas with the better offense.
-Game is in Texas
-Distractions of arrests for Texas?
-Mack Brown back against the wall?
-Oregon St hasn’t been to a bowl in a few years-should get max effort
Play: Did like Oregon St at 3, but local has 4 now....thinking...
TCU/Michigan St
-Similar teams in almost every single way, except for TCU’s vulnerability against the pass.
Play: Too close to call…..12 pack bet on Michigan St
Vanderbilt/NC State
-One of my top 5 bowl bets
-Everything is lining up Vanderbilt, from the stats, to the better defense, to motivation, to location( virtual home game), to the oppositions distractions,…you name it, I love it…hope it stays at 7, but won’t be surprised if this hits 9.5 on game day,
Play: Vanderbilt Motherfuckin’ Commodores-7
USC/Ga Tech
-From a game I love in Vandy/NCState, to one that has quite possibly lost all of my interest
-Strength of schedule advantage to USC
-Freshman QB for USC, how focused is he knowing that he's got the keys to the car next year already?
-Kiffin is a dumbass
-Stats say USC woodshed, but I’m not sure about it
Play: Lean Over 64
Tulsa/Iowa St
- You can look at the stats all you want from these two teams, but the strength of schedule disparity isn’t even close and I think these teams are moreso closer to even than the +1.8 Net YPP advantage that Tulsa holds over them.
- This game is a classic motivational angle game. These two teams already played this year, so simply speaking, Iowa St who won last time can very well be strongly disinterested, while Tulsa tries to avenge their loss from earlier in the season.
Play: Lean Tulsa-1 and Over 51
LSU/Clemson
-Better strength of schedule for LSU, better overall D, both teams with dimwit head coaches.
- I have a weird feeling this game will be very close throughout.
Play: Couldn’t argue either side being thrown into some exotics or a shits n giggles Clemson ML play since their game last bowl season was an embarassment.
Closing line:Favs are currently 7-7 and Unders are 8-6
:shake:
