Bowl HAMMERS!!!!!

HammersSpreads

HammersSpreads

Pretty much a regular
Regular Season Record: 70-66-2


Bowl Record: 7-11
HAMMERED Record: 2-2


Bowl Plays:

New Orleans Bowl
Nevada/ULL OVER 60.5

New Mexico Bowl
Utah St (-10)

Las Vegas Bowl
Utah (-2.5)

Potato Bowl
Air Force ML (+115)

Camellia Bowl
South Bama (-2.5)

Miami Beach Bowl
BYU ML (+115)

Boca Raton Bowl
NIU Huskies +10Poinsettia Bowl
SDSU Aztecs -2 ----- HAMMERED

Bahamas Bowl
WKU/CMU OVER 66

Hawaii Bowl
Fresno ML +115

Heart of Dallas Bowl
Illinois +7

Quick Lane Bowl
UNC -3 ----- HAMMERED

St Petersburg Bowl
UCF -2.5

Military Bowl
Va Tech +3

Sun Bowl
Zona St -7
Independence Bowl
South Car +3.5 ----- HAMMERED

Pinstripe Bowl
Penn St +3 ----- HAMMERED

Holiday Bowl
USC -7

Liberty Bowl
West Virginia -1.5

Russell Athletic Bowl
OU -4 ----- HAMMERED

Texas Bowl
Texas +7 ----- HAMMERED

Music City Bowl
LSU -8

Belk Bowl
L'Ville +7 ----- HAMMERED

Foster Farms Bowl


Chick-Fil-A Bowl


Fiesta Bowl


Orange Bowl


Outback Bowl


Cotton Bowl


Citrus Bowl


Rose Bowl


Sugar Bowl


Armed Forces Bowl


Taxslayer Bowl


Alamo Bowl


Cactus Bowl


Birmingham Bowl


GoDaddy Bowl
 
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We will see if I end up playing all bowl games. I will try to delve in a good amount of them....but I'll make it clear which ones I actually like a lot & which ones I dont.


Nevada/ULL OVER 60.5
I see each team getting 30pts in this game. 2 teams with average at best defenses & above average offenses playing in the dome.....& this bowl game has a history of putting up points (aside from last year). Nevada's defense isn't great, & ULL should be able to run the ball at will here. ULL has a history of playing very well in this bowl game, & even though they can be run heavy, they have big plays & score quickly. ULL's defense was trash to start the year, but got much better as the year went on.....I'll attribute this to A.) players finding their groove, & B.) Them playing a softer schedule once Sun Belt came into play. Nevada & Fajaro will be the best offense they have faced since probably Boise St, & I like Fajaro's chances in his last game at the college level.

SDSU Aztecs -2 ----- HAMMERED
I'll continue to be repetitive about Rocky Long's success against option teams. His defenses are great against them, & he has a killer ATS & SU record since he has been at SDSU (10-1 now I believe). They have already played 2 option teams this year, one traditional & one modern. I could be concerned about them having possibly a couple DL injured, but as I stated in my pre-season write up of the Aztecs, D-Line is their deepest position on the team probably. SDSU played in this bowl on their home field 2 years ago & got whipped by a BYU team that was much better than them all across the board....& I don't see motivation being a problem for them here. Navy's defense is the reason why they are a disappointing 7-5 this year, & they are giving up over 5ypc.....D Pumphrey should be able to have a field day (as long as Bob Toledo doesn't try to get cute & throw the ball the whole damn game).


I'll be back with more later! & continue to update the thread. Good luck this bowl season....it doesn't ever last long enough, & it's sad to think football is almost over (off-season is waaaaaaaaaaay too long).
 
Reading your post in the bowl forum pushed SDSU to a full unit for me. K Reynolds a little hobbled too. Don't know if you noticed the hammy, but 10 days is not enough to let that heal.
 
GL this bowl season Troy

yanks - great to see ya back. I'll make my way over to your thread soon. Solid gold sir

Books - ya I saw that at the end of the game. I don't know if it was cramps or if he pulled something, but with Rocky longs success against option teams I like my chances. Add in that navy has the shortest turn around of any bowl team with only getting 10 days to prepare, i like our chances here. The line should be at least a TD IMO
 
I'll make plays on all games. Some will be small. I'll clean up the thread later.

1st day looks tough, here we go:

ULL/Nevada OVER 60.5
love this play. Only concern is the early kick, but with both Nevada being In town for a week, I don't worry as much. Yes, I still like it at the 63 it's at currently too.

The rest will be smaller for Saturday:

Utah St -10
UTEP hasn't beaten a bowl eligible team. They have the 109 ranked defense in terms of ypp. Extra practices for Utah st and freshman Kent Myers. If Utah St is interested in this game then they should cover IMO. If they aren't then I may have a problem.

Utah -2.5
just can't get over the coaching issues at CSU. I also can't get past the fact this is the best defense CSU has prob faced, and especially on the DL. Most importantly I can't get over the near flawless bowl record for Whittingham, and I don't think they will be flat bc they haven't been to a bowl in 2 years. Also think Booker will run fairly easily against a somewhat soft CSU run d.

Air Force ML (+115)
i love what PJ Fleck is doing, and the train will keep running next year. But I can't get over the fact that I can't find much knowledge of this coaching staff having experience against option teams. And this young team has no experience against option teams the last couple years. There is a difference between seeing it on tape and practicing with your scout team than it is seeing it in game action from a team that runs it perfectly.

South Bama -2.5
taking the better defense in their 1st bowl game ever in a near home game
 
good luck all bowl season ( and if your heat in NFL last 2 weeks keeps going you should be retiring soon)
 
BYU ML (+115)
2 teams that are near identical in terms of offensive and defensive yards/play. Memphis has the edge in the Red Zone, and that is probably where they gather their fantastic defensive points/game. But, I'll back the team that has had to go through a tougher schedule, along with a ridiculous rash of injuries and attrition. Giving an extra few weeks to practice and prepare should only help these young players that got thrown into the fire. I think Memphis' defensive stats are somewhat misleading as during their 6 game win streak they havent faced a team ranked higher than #94 in terms of offensive scoring. Being from Oklahoma, I love Justin Fuente and his confidence....and I love the trash talk thats been going on between both teams prior to this game facing off. I'm going w/ the veteran coach Mendenhall who has won 4 out of his last 5 bowl games. I'll take a coach that has proven to win bowl games over a team/coach going to their first bowl in years (I find it an overblown angle to use, i.e. Western Michigan & South Bama so far this year) when both the teams are fairly equal in my eyes.
 
You as well Schrute.

Prob my favorite play of the early bowl season in the Aztecs. If they want to be there and are interested then they should win by 2 TD's IMO. It's The best match up they could have asked for in a bowl game.
 
NIU Huskies +10 (-120)
Marshall is better in nearly every statistical category, and there is very little reason to back NIU on that alone. But it's clearly a play on Marshall's season going into the Sh*tter and think NIU will be the much more motivated team than Marshall, and I'll take 10pts in this scenerio all day....even if it does mean I have to back a MAC team in a bowl (barf).


Also have the Aztecs pending for tonight as well, obviously.
 
Hammer, sorry about that SDst loss, was a crazy game, why they don't kick the FG late in that game is beyond me, get em back tomorrow.
 
Ya well that was the worst loss in recent memory. I guess im good for 1 every bowl season.....last year was Wazzou. And they both come on multi unit plays. Comical....I don't even know where to begin. Team clearly missed Ruffin, but that was the worst coaching decision I've seen in a long long long time.


Oh well, many more to go. Fade away is a good option my friends lol
 
Early Christmas present from the sportsbook.....my Fresno wager didn't get processed. I'm not complaining lol.

finally getting to the bowl season where my more confident picks are coming up. We saw how that went with SDSU though I suppose.


Illinois +6

UNC -3 ----- HAMMERED

UCF -2.5
 
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On a solid 1-7 ATS streak. Here are your Friday night and Saturday losers:

UCF -2.5

Va Tech +3 (-115)

Zona St -7

South Carolina +3.5 ----- HAMMERED

Penn St +3 ----- HAMMERED

USC -7

would love ice to throw some write ups in if I have time.
 
Va tech: just backing the better defense, and the hope that Michael brewer can play a decent game against a bad defense. Va tech has been killed by injuries and have had time to get some players healthy now. Maybe a slight motivation angle due to their head coach having health issues? I have a terrible record fading tommy tubs though.

Zona St: if the sun devils want to be here and play this game then I'm very confident they steam roll duke. Duke gets outgained by 100-200 yds a game and still wins due to great coaching and fortune, but they are outmatched here if asu wants to play the game. Motivation is near impossible to gauge IMO and asu could come flat, but im hoping that after the egg they laid last year that they will show up and play well.

South Caro: fading maimi and that joker they have wearing that weak ass tie on their sideline. Massive coaching advantage to USC IMO. Both teams not where they want to be, but at least USC kept playing football the end of the season

Penn St: backing what should be one of the most motivated teams in the whole bowl season. I'm sure "the dude" will have his team ready on the other sideline, but bc plays right into penn st wheelhouse IMO. Penn st been solid on defense (especially run d), and I'm hoping extra practices have helped penn st OL get better. James Franklin is a hell of a bowl coach too.

USC: motivation and talent and coaching
 
Ah a winning Saturday....I almost forgot what those feel like. On to today, where I really like all games:


West Virginia -1.5
Backing the better defense, surprise. I think Skylar Howard will do fine, as he has done fine toward the end of the year and now has had an extra month to practice/prepare. But WVU has a good enough defense to cause Kyle Allen problems IMO, as their DC is not afraid to bring confusing looks & blitzes, which cause some high powered offenses problems (i.e. Baylor). Basically, I think WVU gets 2-3 more stops than A&M will. Although I am slightly restless about taking Holgo instead of Sumlin.


OU -4 ----- HAMMERED
Under looks good also IMO. OU is a stressful team to put money on, as most of the time it is coaching that leaves your pockets empty it seems. But this wager is on the hope that OU has a good gameplan put forth. Last year I was on OU against Bama, & a large reason was b/c I knew OU would play that game like it was the biggest they had played in a decade. Well, that leaves to concern here b/c I have no idea how this team will come out & play....could be flat & ugly. But I'm hoping with a bunch of young players, and a team that isnt full of pre-madonna's, that the Sooners will play well. OU defense has been a disappointment, but w/ extra practices I'm hopeful the young secondary will be better. Also hopeful Mike Stoops will simplify things a bit & just let the players play. Stoudt is a QB that could make OU's defense look good again, as he is probably the 2nd worst QB they have faced this year. Offensively, I think OU can weard down Clemson (as long as the Sooners defense does their job).


Texas +7 ----- HAMMERED
Under looks obvious here too. Basically backing Charlie Strong, & a very young & green team to get better this last month of practice. Both teams play right into their wheelhouse, & i think both teams will come to play football. If Tyrone Swoopes turns the ball over a lot then I can probably kiss this wager goodbye. But if Swoopes doesn't give the ball to the other team, then I think Texas has a better than expected shot to win the ball game.
 
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on a solid 0-6 ATS run. Thats how I roll

TCU -3 HAMMERED
I haven't watched as much football this year as I have years past (and my record shows for it), but I've still watched a decent amount & TCU is maybe the best team my eyes have seen. In years past, the #3 ranked team (first team left out of the Natty) did terrible in their bowl game.....something like 1-12 ATS?? TCU & Baylor fall into that criteria now w/ the College Football Playoff IMO.....but I'll go against my better judgement & hope that Patterson & TCU come out fired up. I'm done w/ the damn motivation angle of capping these games....I'm on the wrong freaking side of every one of those. This is the biggest bet of the bowl season for me thusfar

Boise +3.5
 
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2-0 yesterday.....which most likely means I rattle off a nice little 0-4 today.

Baylor -2.5
Two fairly even teams IMO, and Michigan St does things that can slow the Baylor offense, so there are challenges with this bet. Possibly the biggest challenge I saw was that I figured Baylor would come out flat.....but after digging deep, I think Baylor comes out & gives their best effort, and if they do that then I think they win & cover.

Mizzou -4

Florida St +8 ----- HAMMERED
Yaaaaaaaaaa I'll take the team that hasnt lost in 900 games....& hasnt been an underdog in 800 straight games to cover this. A whole month to give this team that is but loaded w/ talent, that has probably been bored, to look at the billboards about how Oregon is going to beat them. I actually liked Oregon to win the whole thing....but think the injury to Oregon's CB is going to be huge huge huge.

Ohio St +9 ----- HAMMERED
I'll grab all these points for Urban Meyer against a shakey Blake Sims. 2 of the best coaches in the game, with a month to prepare, & this could be really fun. I'll grab the points for Urban Meyer to go against the Mighty Nick Saban.....the same guy that basically caused Urban's heart to fail & made him leave Florida.


Gun to Head........I'll Say Florida St wins, & Bama pulls out a close one.

My predictions during bowl season seem to bite hard though..... Good luck peps. THIS SHOULD BE A FUN FUN DAY
 
Fun day yesterday. Couple thoughts:

Baylor - I have only been doing this a couple years, but I'm still waiting to be on the side and see what it feels like for a win like Mich St had yesterday. It'll come someday lol. What a bad bad loss for Baylor. Briles has taken this program beyond where they prob ever dreamed, but his next step is simple and clear to me.....teach Discipline. Don't make that stupid block in the back during the pick 6 and you win the game. Fun fact.....2 games involved teams coming back from 20+ down in the 4th qtr this year, and both included Baylor. You know TCU was laughing loud yesterday lol. Congrats to mich st and never giving up.

Florida St - prob wasn't a bad bet. Oregon couldn't stop FSU....only FSU could stop FSU. This game gets within the number without turnovers probably.

Ohio St gonna win a Natty IMO



On to today's losers:

Pitt -3.5
Decisive size advantage. Ground and pound. Also have the 2 best players on the field. James Conner goes off.


Gonna take prob a wrong approach to a couple other games:

Tennessee -3
Taking one of the youngest teams out there. They could get killed at the LOS and lose this bet, but I'll hold my nose and go with the athleticism and youth with a month of extra practices

Okie Light +7 ----- HAMMERED
go on a limb and say the pokes win straight up. They could also get killed. Biggest worry is their offensive line vs wash d line. But I am throwing stats and how bad OSU was this year out the window bc I find most irrelevant. OSU was completely outmatched against good competition this year.....until mason Rudolph came to be the starter. I thought the pokes would beat my Sooners bc I saw how much better OSU was with Rudolph. The terrible OL, and the team in general, had a different energy and excitement to them. It's a COMPLETELY different team than what got whipped by everyone mid season. Add the fact that the pokes are one of the youngest teams in the nation with a month of practices, and that Gundy is actually being Gundy again....I think the pokes win.
 
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It is sad to see the year coming to an end. Probably one of the more sad times of the year when it gets to this part. With that said, it was a fun ride. This was the worst year I have had to date.....but if I win the last bet then I will end up just under even money so all in all it's not too shabby. But still a slight losing year. I do this for fun & as a hobby, w/ a hope to make some supplemental income so it wont hurt too much.

This year proved 1 thing to be certain.....the single best tool to cap games & pick winners is to ACTUALLY WATCH THE FOOTBALL GAMES. I had the best first half of the year than I ever have had, but then I had a lot of family & personal things come up & was not able to watch as much the last half of the season....& my record suffered greatly. Went on the coldest 3 week stretch I've had, & never got back into a good groove (bc I couldn't watch enough games as needed). Normally the 2nd half of the season is by far my best time, b/c I am able to watch football all year long & can see how teams play & such. Hopefully next year I can get back to my old routine, & have the best season yet.

This is by far & away the best site out there....the amount of gentlemen here w/ high knowledge of the game & of certain teams/leagues is amazing. And everyones attitude around here makes it easy to keep coming back, win or lose.

Anyway, on to my last bet of the year:

Ohio St +7 ----- HAMMERED
I believe this is a MASSIVE coaching mismatch here. It is also going to be largely hinged on if OSU commits turnovers or not. If Ohio St does not turn the ball over, or even limit it to 2 turovers max, then I think they win this straight up. Lets not fool ourselves, Oregon's defense didn't stop FSU last week.....FSU stopped FSU. I think OSU's d-line can cause problems and put added pressure on Mariota, & if RB Elliot keeps having a coming out party then that will be enough to let Urban use his playbook effectively. Basically, I think Oregon will have troubles stopping the Buckeyes, & I think Ohio St will be able to get enough stops to keep it within the number, & most likely win. And of course, a HUGE thing is that this is a very large coaching mismatch in favor of Ohio St. I'll continue to ride the Urban Meyer as an underdog streak.....pretty sure it's on a 15-0 run now, w/ him being 5-0 @ Ohio St (winning all 5 SU).
 
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