Bowl Betting Cheat Sheet

[Joe Public]

So last year after the Bowls wrapped up I took some time to really figure out where I succeeded and where I fell down on the job. I should note, I'm not a huge college bettor so many of my plays were coat-tails, as a number of them will be this year as well.

But after watching a ton of the bowls last year, and the years before, I found I really kept coming back to a few things I want on my side if I'm going to bet the game.

I can expand on any of these, but the short list is as follows:

1. Coaching
Who has the better coach? Last year I bet on Lloyd Carr vs. Pete Carroll. Lesson learned.

2. Motivation
Who wants to be there vs. who's disappointed to be there?

3. Who has key seniors?
Is this the leader of a team's last game for them?

4. Out of conference schedule
Numbers four and five work together, but this is also who's played stronger competition outside of their conference, this can suggest how they will match up in their Bowl.

5. Conference strength
Again, if the conference is strong, even though the team might be 7-4, they might actually be much better than that record.

6. Like matchups
Who has each team already played in their season that is like their Bowl matchup, how'd they fare?

7. Better pass defense & better rushing offense
Does one team have both a better statistical pass D and rushing O? This usually suggests the side you want to be on.

I have been working extremely hard on a consulting project for the last month and really haven't been able to apply this to any of the games yet. Though I want to do so over the next couple of days.

That said, if any of you have any suggestions as to which teams to look at based on the above criteria, I'd be very appreciative for the head start.

Either way, I hope this helps some folks.

 

[RetroVK]

First of all ---- great post joe.

will try to contribute to this thread as we get deeper into bowl season but i love how you are thinking here.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Yep. I know nothing whatsoever, but I'll be looking to tail when these things become aligned, so this thread gets a sticky.

 

[G-Man]

To me - its all about the QB and the capicity he has against his particluar opponent in a bowl game. Nothing else is as important.

Proof in that theory is look what happened to Oregon...

All the other good points you make are fine, but the QB is most crucial against who and how they can play.

Watch for upsets from teams with Avg QB's...

 

[Schrute]

I'm not sure that this belongs in this thread. However I was out in Vegas about this time last year. I observed the Oregon football team hanging out in the bars and mingling in the casinos. They were having one hell of a time. I saw about 5-10 BYU players during my entire trip and they were never in a casino. The only time I would see them was walking down the strip in the late afternoon or early evening, presumably before or after dinner and before they retired for the night. I immediately placed a large wager on the Mormons. I can only assume that UCLA will be doing the same thing. They don't seem to be the most disciplined team right now and I would imagine they are having one hell of a time in Vegas. BYU on the other hand is probably looking at this as another big opportunity to embarrass a Pac-10 team on national TV. I'll be on the Mormons again.

 

[Joe Public]

Wow, a sticky, I'm honored.

=)

 

[RetroVK]

byu won the pie eating contest at the new york new york casino a day or two ago. already starting to get into ucla heads.

 

[RetroVK]

Quick takes on utah tonight and my opinion on the "joe pucblic" cheat sheet.

1. coaching -- advantage utah. Nevermind that utah has a coach with the greatest first name in history but johnson leaving to georgia tech makes this one an easy call

2. motivation -- even --- both teams show up to play in their bowl appearances. i cannot find a significant "want to be there" edge for either team.

3. key seniors -- slight edge to utah

4./5. schedules -- again an edge to utah. navy played one of the easiest schedules in the country.

6. like match ups -- advantage navy. the most clear cut example of this would be the utah/airforce game.

7. better pass defense better rush offense -- even --- navy obviously has the better rushing offense and utah obviously has the better pass defense.

line is utah -7.5 --- -8.5 or thereabouts. good luck folks. sorry for lack of detail but five minutes to gametime so thought i would post thoughts quickly.

 

[Mags]

I like it!

 

[Joe Public]

Thanks for doing that, Vegas.

Much appreciated.

 

[RetroVK]

cheat sheet good for the straight up , bad for the ats in bowl 1. utah appeared to be correct side... bad moose for ute backers .... and under backers for that matter.

 

[CapTwo]

good stuff joe public

always good to check this sticky when going through and capping these games:tiphat:

 

[euchre_robot]

just take every bowl over

 

[RJ Esq]

Bump

 

[Joe Public]

Hey, thanks, RJ.

=)

 

[RJ Esq]

Hey, JP--

Where is the thread that had the stats for early vs. late favs?

I thought there was a trend like Favs of 8 or more covered 60% of the time in December and Dogs of 8 or more covered 60% of the time in January. Trying to find the thread.

I think it's Tru's thread.

 

[Joe Public]

Yeah, I know the thread you're talking about, it's not mine, I'm not sure it's Tru's. It might be a Vanzack thread?

You're right, the early faves then the late dogs.

 

[RJ Esq]

Not Vanzack's thread. I'll keep looking.

 

[Br@ssknux]

I think the favorite/dog thing has to do with before and after Christmas. I.e., favorites generally cover before, and dogs after. Now that there are so many more games after Christmas though, it's more about the stature of the bowl. For example, the GMAC, International, etc used to be early, or their type of games used to be early, and now they're late due to scheduling opportunities with the MNC game played so late.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

I think the favorite/dog thing has to do with before and after Christmas. I.e., favorites generally cover before, and dogs after. Now that there are so many more games after Christmas though, it's more about the stature of the bowl. For example, the GMAC, International, etc used to be early, or their type of games used to be early, and now they're late due to scheduling opportunities with the MNC game played so late.

:shake:

typically it was favs before xmas...dogs from xmas to new year's eve...then the important bowls.

 

[RetroVK]

Was reading another thread and huntdog made a great point about players getting suspended and so forth ... academic ineligibility also comes into play. Be more wary of placing EARLY bets on certain schools that tend to struggle in this regard... miami florida , florida state , and virginia tech come to mind.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Was reading another thread and huntdog made a great point about players getting suspended and so forth ... academic ineligibility also comes into play. Be more wary of placing EARLY bets on certain schools that tend to struggle in this regard... miami florida , florida state , and virginia tech come to mind.

Yes indeed. A perfect example of this, as you point out was Florida St v Kentucky last year. Had you bet FSU early rather than late, you would have missed out on a line move from 4 to 7 that would have provided a push(and maybe a cover in some circles). I think the score ended up being 35-28 or something like that.

Of course, if you liked Kentucky, I guess pulling the trigger early wouldn't have been a bad thing!!

 

[GWarner27]

Clemson also lost a few key players last year due to this

 

[KylanJ]

Just wondering why you are focusing on pass defense and rush offense? Doesnt it depend on match ups? What if team A has a horrible pass defense and the team they are playing has a horrible rushing offense yet throws the ball extremely well? Shouldnt we be looking at offense and defense as a whole? Just curious your thoughts behind this....

 

[B.A.R.]

Bumpity.

Oldie but a solid reference.

 

[tee*dub]

Hey bar- you know if JP is all good? Really miss him around here

 

[s--k]

Does anyone have numbers of how interim or newly promoted head coaches perform coaching in the bowl?

 

[Lareux]

Hey bar- you know if JP is all good? Really miss him around here

He's probably still recovering from the election, but he did pop in the politics thread after the election so we know that he didn't commit suicide due to the result. He was kinda active in the politics thread for a bit before the election, but haven't seen him in any sports threads in quite some time.

 

[Alan Tongue]

Does anyone have numbers of how interim or newly promoted head coaches perform coaching in the bowl?

A year old https://www.bangthebook.com/free-football-picks/9320-interim-head-coaches-records-bowl-games

 

[s--k]

A year old https://www.bangthebook.com/free-football-picks/9320-interim-head-coaches-records-bowl-games

Thank you. I will have to look into this deeper.

It would seem that coaches who are going to remain with the program have an advantage vs those just filling a short term / one game role. I'm not totally familiar with all the guys in the link from prior years were kept as a position coach or something, I think large majority of them were not.

Last year there was 1 out of 6 guys coaching the bowl who would be the head coach beyond the bowl, Jason Candle at Toledo and they won. There doesn't appear to be any the prior year. For 2013-14 there was only 1 guy coaching the bowl who would be next year's head coach...Clay Helton at USC and they won. That would be 2-0, however the 2012-13 year had Rod Carey at NIU lose, but that was to FSU if that means anything. 2-1. 2011-2012 saw 3 coaches in the bowl who were either with the team the following year or the head coach of that team and they went 2-1.

And this year we have Allen at IU and Orlando at UH as two coaches / teams who would appear to be in better position than the other 3 teams with different head coaches for the bowl.

Incidently, I would think it has to be a huge boast for Western Michigan to have Fleck back for the Cotton Bowl after everyone figured he would be moving on to greener pastures. And related to the Cotton Bowl...a friend of mine who works at Goodyear, the primary sponsor for the bowl, says that interest within the corporation for employees wishing to go to the game is pretty much nonexistent, supposedly her and her husband could go if they wanted....not much demand. Don't know how or if that applies in a football or betting sense. I read online that tickets on the secondary market for that game are being sold way below face value. Again, not sure that speaks to Wisconsin's interest or motivation level, but interesting for such a huge bowl game to have lack of fan appeal and interest.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

an oldie, but a goodie. :shake2:

don't recall the exact #s, but i think the spread only came into play a handful of times last year. in other words, if the dog covered he also won SU.

 

[Spartaneers]

Someone probably has the exact figure but I believe 89% of dogs that covered won SU