Under-the-Radar Pitching Duel Foregrounds Red Sox-Mariners Opener
Two veteran starting pitchers take center stage when Boston hosts Seattle at 7:10 ET. Seattle will look to end its losing skid, while Boston’s lineup searches for consistency.
Seattle Mariners (46-28, 39-34-1 O/U) at Boston Red Sox (49-26, 35-38-2 O/U)
MLB Pick: 1H Under 5
Wade LeBlanc (3-0, 2.63 ERA) continues to be successful in his return to the starter role. He has endured only two starts in which he allowed three runs or more. Both times came against Houston, which boasts an elite lineup that ranks fourth in slugging against southpaws.
LeBlanc thrives as a fly ball pitcher, who only induces ground balls at a 36% rate. His chief object is to ensure that batted balls remain fly balls and do not become home runs. He’ll benefit tonight from the wind blowing in from right field at 10 mph. LeBlanc used to be primarily a fastball pitcher, relying on his fastball over half the time. But now he’s added variety to his pitching arsenal so that he’s more unpredictable. He doesn’t rely on a single pitch more than 31% of the time. His most important fly ball pitch is also the one that he throws most frequently, the sinker. The sinker is generally thought of as a ground ball-inducing pitch, but he likes to keep it elevated despite its long vertical drop and induce batters to swing underneath.
Boston’s lineup finally came alive again in its 9-2 romp against Minnesota last night. Its lineup has lately been two-faced—either explosive or inactive— producing one or two runs four times in the past seven games. In the other three games, Boston took advantage of some errors and passed balls to produce six runs in one game, and achieved nine runs in both of the others. Against a southpaw, I expect the „bad“ Boston lineup. The Red Sox have struggled all year against southpaws, ranking 26th in slugging against them overall and 21st since June. They’re yielding -3.7 units against southpaws, despite being profitable overall.
Recently, Boston succeeded against Atlanta’s southpaw Sean Newcomb, who had an off-day and couldn’t stop walking batters, and Detroit’s Blaine Hardy, who has since been relegated to the bullpen. But LeBlanc is an established starter in strong form. He had been doing poorly in terms of FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) until he got to face Boston on June 16, yielding two hits and zero runs over 7.2 innings, in what was easily his longest outing of the season. In 34 career at-bats against LeBlanc, Boston has mustered only one extra-base hit. Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts, for example, are a combined 1-for-12 against him. LeBlanc has a promising history in re-matches, for example holding Minnesota to two runs in six innings after facing them 12 days earlier.
Knuckleballer Steven Wright (2-1, 1.23 ERA) counters for Boston. The knuckleball is extremely hard to hit because its movement seems erratic and therefore unpredictable to the batter. But more pitchers don’t rely on the knuckleball because it is hard to execute. On off-days, the knuckleball appears flat and arrives with little movement to the hitter, so that he can easily destroy it. The key is form. Baltimore, for example, had a slugging percentage over .800 against Wright. But when the O’s faced him on June 11, they only managed four hits in 6.2 innings. Wright dominated Baltimore in that match-up because he’s consistently been throwing his knuckleball effectively. Wright has allowed one run in his past 29 innings. In his last start on June 16, he held Seattle to one run over seven innings. In 42 career at-bats against Wright, Seattle hitters have one extra-base hit. Dee Gordon, for example, is 1-for-6 against him.
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Seattle’s bullpen ranks second-to-last in terms of FIP in the past 14 days, so i’d rather stick to the 1H „under."
Two veteran starting pitchers take center stage when Boston hosts Seattle at 7:10 ET. Seattle will look to end its losing skid, while Boston’s lineup searches for consistency.
Seattle Mariners (46-28, 39-34-1 O/U) at Boston Red Sox (49-26, 35-38-2 O/U)
MLB Pick: 1H Under 5
Wade LeBlanc (3-0, 2.63 ERA) continues to be successful in his return to the starter role. He has endured only two starts in which he allowed three runs or more. Both times came against Houston, which boasts an elite lineup that ranks fourth in slugging against southpaws.
LeBlanc thrives as a fly ball pitcher, who only induces ground balls at a 36% rate. His chief object is to ensure that batted balls remain fly balls and do not become home runs. He’ll benefit tonight from the wind blowing in from right field at 10 mph. LeBlanc used to be primarily a fastball pitcher, relying on his fastball over half the time. But now he’s added variety to his pitching arsenal so that he’s more unpredictable. He doesn’t rely on a single pitch more than 31% of the time. His most important fly ball pitch is also the one that he throws most frequently, the sinker. The sinker is generally thought of as a ground ball-inducing pitch, but he likes to keep it elevated despite its long vertical drop and induce batters to swing underneath.
Boston’s lineup finally came alive again in its 9-2 romp against Minnesota last night. Its lineup has lately been two-faced—either explosive or inactive— producing one or two runs four times in the past seven games. In the other three games, Boston took advantage of some errors and passed balls to produce six runs in one game, and achieved nine runs in both of the others. Against a southpaw, I expect the „bad“ Boston lineup. The Red Sox have struggled all year against southpaws, ranking 26th in slugging against them overall and 21st since June. They’re yielding -3.7 units against southpaws, despite being profitable overall.
Recently, Boston succeeded against Atlanta’s southpaw Sean Newcomb, who had an off-day and couldn’t stop walking batters, and Detroit’s Blaine Hardy, who has since been relegated to the bullpen. But LeBlanc is an established starter in strong form. He had been doing poorly in terms of FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) until he got to face Boston on June 16, yielding two hits and zero runs over 7.2 innings, in what was easily his longest outing of the season. In 34 career at-bats against LeBlanc, Boston has mustered only one extra-base hit. Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts, for example, are a combined 1-for-12 against him. LeBlanc has a promising history in re-matches, for example holding Minnesota to two runs in six innings after facing them 12 days earlier.
Knuckleballer Steven Wright (2-1, 1.23 ERA) counters for Boston. The knuckleball is extremely hard to hit because its movement seems erratic and therefore unpredictable to the batter. But more pitchers don’t rely on the knuckleball because it is hard to execute. On off-days, the knuckleball appears flat and arrives with little movement to the hitter, so that he can easily destroy it. The key is form. Baltimore, for example, had a slugging percentage over .800 against Wright. But when the O’s faced him on June 11, they only managed four hits in 6.2 innings. Wright dominated Baltimore in that match-up because he’s consistently been throwing his knuckleball effectively. Wright has allowed one run in his past 29 innings. In his last start on June 16, he held Seattle to one run over seven innings. In 42 career at-bats against Wright, Seattle hitters have one extra-base hit. Dee Gordon, for example, is 1-for-6 against him.
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Seattle’s bullpen ranks second-to-last in terms of FIP in the past 14 days, so i’d rather stick to the 1H „under."
