Boston vs. Houston Picks Article

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Boston Celtics vs. Houston Rockets NBA Picks

Boston Celtics vs. Houston Rockets Game Info
Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET
NBA TV
Toyota Center in Houston, Texas


Boston Celtics vs. Houston Rockets Picks


Celtics -5.5 (-110)
Under 224.5 (-110)


SPREAD PLAY (5.5)

This is a good spot to back the Celtics in. Annually, they have playoff expectations. A tight overtime loss to New York in the season-opener showed that they can compete with playoff-caliber teams.

After losing to Toronto – by as many points as they did, no less -- the Celtics must feel embarrassed.

Houston is just the team that Boston must want to face in order to get its first win of the season. In other words, such a developing, young, and low-quality team like Houston makes for a great “get-right” spot for the Celtics.

It is true that the Rockets just blew out their last opponent, a Thunder team that may end up with the NBA’s worst record by season’s end.

The Rockets are a young team: three of their regular starters have played three seasons or fewer. Jalen Green is a rookie, Jae’Sean Tate is in his second season, and Kevin Porter Jr. is barely in his third season.

Young teams are notoriously inconsistent. They may come up with great outputs in a single evening. But they don’t know how to win. Houston has not won back-to-back games since February of last season. Its last five losses after a win have come by double-digits.

Maintaining any kind of consistency after a win has therefore been a problem for the Rockets. This problem has persisted even when star guard John Wall was playing and this problem was exacerbated last season both by Wall being absent and likewise by likewise more proven scorer Victor Oladipo having departed.

Wall may get traded, which exemplifies the uncertainty in Houston’s current roster, which makes it difficult for the team to establish a concrete forward direction.

Without the ball-dominant guard on the court, Porter Jr. is having to operate at point guard.

Porter Jr. is inadequate as a point guard and a problematic one as well. Besides his lack of playmaking, he needs to repair his turnover tendencies. So far, he has an absurd 11 turnovers after two games.

Houston’s qualitative deficiency at the point guard position is compelling other guys to step up unnaturally. Christian Wood, for example, despite being the center, is trying hard to get others involved.

Wood’s strong three-point shooting helps explain Houston’s success in its last contest. However, Wood reliably fails to be efficient after making over half of his three-point attempts in a game.

Last year, for example, he converted four of five three-point attempts in the second game of the season, but zero of three in the third game. This pattern reliably repeats itself.

The Rockets rely for most of their scoring on the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler and transition offense. However, Boston owned the fifth-best defense against this play type last year, as measured by PPP (points per possession) allowed, and continues to have the personnel to remain successful in this respect. In particular, the Celtics enjoy having famously strong defender Marcus Smart healthy. Among other things, he skillfully utilizes his active hands to be disruptive.

Transition opportunities will be rare for Houston because of Celtic playmakers being efficient. Both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have proven themselves to be high-volume and efficient three-point shooters who can also score inside the arc. They represent Boston’s strong offensive advantage in terms of quality and experience playing together.

TOTALS PLAY (224.5)

Without Wood shooting well, Houston really lacks efficient shooters in addition to lacking reliable playmakers since Wall is absent.

Boston will cover the spread with good defense and its two top playmakers, but the rest of the unit is still adjusting to an offseason overhaul that saw some scoring quality, such as Evan Fournier, depart.

Thus, this will be a rather ho-hum Boston cover that stays “under.”
 
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