Cleveland’s Chief Wahoo Will Lose His Smile in Boston on Tuesday
Boston hosts Cleveland on Tuesday night on the MLB Network in what could easily be a playoff preview. What happens in the playoffs is anyone’s guess. But on Tuesday, Boston looks like a strong play.
Tuesday, 7:10 ET (MLB Network)
MLB Pick: Red Sox
Boston’s Nathan Eovaldi (5-4, 3.62) has lately been Jekyll and Hyde, depending on where he’s pitching. On the road, he’s been massively inconsistent, waving from a strong outing to complete disaster. But in his last four starts in front of the home faithful, (including when he played for Tampa Bay) Eovaldi has allowed one run in 27 innings. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) was under 2.70 in each of those starts. Despite yielding negative units overall, he is in the green at home.
Eovaldi has transformed himself somewhat. In his career, he had always leaned on his fastball with up to 70% frequency and when he threw this pitch less, he mixed in a sinker. This season, he throws his fastball with 39% frequency and adds a cutter almost as often. He also mixes in a slider and splitter with combined 25% frequency. Eovaldi’s changes are working out for him. Opponents are hitting under .240 against his two primary pitches. He features his fastball most in all scenarios except his cutter when he’s behind in the count. His cutter is also a prominent first pitch and his splitter a consistent two-strike pitch against lefties. His fastball is strong with its average 97 mph velocity and strong arm-side movement. His fastball and cutter play well off each other. He keeps the former elevated in the zone and the latter low. So his cutter introduces a change in eye level and a change in velocity because it averages five fewer mph.
The Indians do rank well in slugging against his pitches from righties, but so do the Yanks and Nats, who posed zero danger to Eovaldi in his home ballpark, where he’s undefeated (3-0) in five starts. He has the additional benefit that no Cleveland batter has yet to face him.
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Cleveland’s Shane Bieber (6-2, 4.37 ERA) has shown poor form away from Cleveland. He’s allowed three or four runs in three of his last four road starts—the one exception coming against the lousy White Sox. Bieber has been lucky to not have lost any of those games in which he pitched poorly. Run support can seem like a valid trend, but there’s no meaningful reason why a certain pitcher should get more run support than another. In the same vein, a coin can land on ‚heads‘ eight times in a row. What does make sense to me, though, is that a rookie should struggle to find a rhythm away from the home faithful and in a foreign ballpark with different dimensions. Bieber is doing a poor job inducing soft contact, as hitters are seeing his stuff well. On the entire season, he does so with less than 10% frequency.
The rookie Bieber relies on a fastball with 58% frequency—unlike the more experienced Eovaldi, he hasn’t developed much variety in his pitching arsenal. He easily leans on his fastball most in all scenarios. Even though it’s his favorite pitch, he struggles with it. Opponents slug .540 against his fastball. He lacks the same velocity as Eovaldi. Its higher vertical release point makes it easier for the batter to track. Finally, he leaves it with 21% frequency in the three most middle spots in the zone. So not only is his top pitch predictable, it’s also ineffective.
Boston easily ranks first in slugging against Bieber’s three most frequent pitches—the fastball, slider, and curve. Despite their success, the Red Sox are strongly underachieving based on the metric xSLG-SLG, which compares what a team’s actual slugging rate is with what it should be based on quality of contact, against his pitches from righties. Bieber struggles especially against lefties, so watch for Andrew Benintendi who slugs over .520 both at home and against righties.
Boston hosts Cleveland on Tuesday night on the MLB Network in what could easily be a playoff preview. What happens in the playoffs is anyone’s guess. But on Tuesday, Boston looks like a strong play.
Tuesday, 7:10 ET (MLB Network)
MLB Pick: Red Sox
Boston’s Nathan Eovaldi (5-4, 3.62) has lately been Jekyll and Hyde, depending on where he’s pitching. On the road, he’s been massively inconsistent, waving from a strong outing to complete disaster. But in his last four starts in front of the home faithful, (including when he played for Tampa Bay) Eovaldi has allowed one run in 27 innings. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) was under 2.70 in each of those starts. Despite yielding negative units overall, he is in the green at home.
Eovaldi has transformed himself somewhat. In his career, he had always leaned on his fastball with up to 70% frequency and when he threw this pitch less, he mixed in a sinker. This season, he throws his fastball with 39% frequency and adds a cutter almost as often. He also mixes in a slider and splitter with combined 25% frequency. Eovaldi’s changes are working out for him. Opponents are hitting under .240 against his two primary pitches. He features his fastball most in all scenarios except his cutter when he’s behind in the count. His cutter is also a prominent first pitch and his splitter a consistent two-strike pitch against lefties. His fastball is strong with its average 97 mph velocity and strong arm-side movement. His fastball and cutter play well off each other. He keeps the former elevated in the zone and the latter low. So his cutter introduces a change in eye level and a change in velocity because it averages five fewer mph.
The Indians do rank well in slugging against his pitches from righties, but so do the Yanks and Nats, who posed zero danger to Eovaldi in his home ballpark, where he’s undefeated (3-0) in five starts. He has the additional benefit that no Cleveland batter has yet to face him.
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Cleveland’s Shane Bieber (6-2, 4.37 ERA) has shown poor form away from Cleveland. He’s allowed three or four runs in three of his last four road starts—the one exception coming against the lousy White Sox. Bieber has been lucky to not have lost any of those games in which he pitched poorly. Run support can seem like a valid trend, but there’s no meaningful reason why a certain pitcher should get more run support than another. In the same vein, a coin can land on ‚heads‘ eight times in a row. What does make sense to me, though, is that a rookie should struggle to find a rhythm away from the home faithful and in a foreign ballpark with different dimensions. Bieber is doing a poor job inducing soft contact, as hitters are seeing his stuff well. On the entire season, he does so with less than 10% frequency.
The rookie Bieber relies on a fastball with 58% frequency—unlike the more experienced Eovaldi, he hasn’t developed much variety in his pitching arsenal. He easily leans on his fastball most in all scenarios. Even though it’s his favorite pitch, he struggles with it. Opponents slug .540 against his fastball. He lacks the same velocity as Eovaldi. Its higher vertical release point makes it easier for the batter to track. Finally, he leaves it with 21% frequency in the three most middle spots in the zone. So not only is his top pitch predictable, it’s also ineffective.
Boston easily ranks first in slugging against Bieber’s three most frequent pitches—the fastball, slider, and curve. Despite their success, the Red Sox are strongly underachieving based on the metric xSLG-SLG, which compares what a team’s actual slugging rate is with what it should be based on quality of contact, against his pitches from righties. Bieber struggles especially against lefties, so watch for Andrew Benintendi who slugs over .520 both at home and against righties.
