Top NBA Parlay Picks for April 6
Boston Celtics vs. Chicago Bulls
Wednesday, April 6, 2022 at 8 p.m. ET at United Center in Chicago
Boston's Offensive Improvement
Early in the season the narrative was set that Boston is a defense-first team that will struggle to score enough points.
The team's scoring struggles derived from an over-reliance on two players, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, in an iso-heavy offense.
But now things are different. Most recently, the Celtics have scored over 120 points in seven of their past nine games.
Their offense is finding a groove at just the right time of year.
Tatum and Brown are certainly still central to the offense.
They are indeed the best scorers on the team, so their contribution is essential to Boston's overall scoring output.
In particular, they will create off the dribble and off ball-screens for themselves and for their teammates.
Now their teammates are also stepping up. In particular, they are doing an extremely good job of cutting to the basket for easy layup attempts. The Celtics are a uniquely efficient cutting team.
Cutting is particularly possible when Tatum gets double-teamed. The attention that Boston's top scorers absorb is creating opportunities for teammates to use off-ball movement to garner favorable scoring opportunities.
The only two recent exceptions against which Boston did not explode offensively were Miami and Toronto.
The Heat and Raptor defenses are on another level than Chicago's, though.
There is no real comparison in terms of quality that can justify a remotely similar expectation from the Bull defense than what one could expect from Miami and Toronto.
Most recently, Chicago has allowed over 125 points in three straight games.
Perimeter Defense
On paper, using season-long statistics, one may make the following argument: Boston's offense matches up poorly against the Bull defense because the Celtics attempt a lot of threes and Chicago's perimeter defense is one of the NBA's best as evident in the frequency with which it allows open and wide-open three-point attempts.
That argument does not work, however, because it does not account for Chicago's current defensive form.
Most recently, the Clippers annihilated the Bulls' supposedly strong perimeter defense with 16 threes. They made 44.4 percent of their three-point attempts.
Subsequently, Miami converted an even more ridiculous 17 of 34 three-point attempts against Chicago.
Whether Chicago's perimeter defense is particularly vulnerable against stronger three-point attacks or whether it is just off right now is not necessary to answer against an in-form Boston attack well-stocked with weapons in the form of Tatum and Brown plus the other offense that they help generate.
It is true that Tatum's numbers in two games this season against Chicago are not the prettiest.
But those two games came earlier in the season before he finally found his stroke from deep in March.
What Chicago's Offense Can Add
Chicago loves its ball-screen game featuring above all DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine.
DeRozan has been on a scoring tear, amassing over 30 points in four of his past five games.
He scored 40 in one of those games and 50 in the other.
But LaVine is also important to the offense and it seems likely that he'll be the star tonight who is either banged-up or doesn't play altogether.
Currently, LaVine is listed as 'questionable' with a knee injury.
DeRozan can certainly thrive against a statistically mediocre Celtic ball-screen defense, but losing LaVine means that Chicago will be less potent overall in its ball-screen offense and that it will miss an important source of three-pointers.
The Verdict
Boston's offense will continue to be explosive against Chicago's vulnerable defense.
Meanwhile, led by DeRozan, the Bulls can score enough to help the game go "over."
They won't have to score too much for the "over" to hit and they won't score too much against a Celtic defense that, despite owning the NBA's best scoring defense, would be relieved by LaVine's absence.
Best Bet: Parlay Celtics ATS & Over (Odds TBA)
Boston Celtics vs. Chicago Bulls
Wednesday, April 6, 2022 at 8 p.m. ET at United Center in Chicago
Boston's Offensive Improvement
Early in the season the narrative was set that Boston is a defense-first team that will struggle to score enough points.
The team's scoring struggles derived from an over-reliance on two players, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, in an iso-heavy offense.
But now things are different. Most recently, the Celtics have scored over 120 points in seven of their past nine games.
Their offense is finding a groove at just the right time of year.
Tatum and Brown are certainly still central to the offense.
They are indeed the best scorers on the team, so their contribution is essential to Boston's overall scoring output.
In particular, they will create off the dribble and off ball-screens for themselves and for their teammates.
Now their teammates are also stepping up. In particular, they are doing an extremely good job of cutting to the basket for easy layup attempts. The Celtics are a uniquely efficient cutting team.
Cutting is particularly possible when Tatum gets double-teamed. The attention that Boston's top scorers absorb is creating opportunities for teammates to use off-ball movement to garner favorable scoring opportunities.
The only two recent exceptions against which Boston did not explode offensively were Miami and Toronto.
The Heat and Raptor defenses are on another level than Chicago's, though.
There is no real comparison in terms of quality that can justify a remotely similar expectation from the Bull defense than what one could expect from Miami and Toronto.
Most recently, Chicago has allowed over 125 points in three straight games.
Perimeter Defense
On paper, using season-long statistics, one may make the following argument: Boston's offense matches up poorly against the Bull defense because the Celtics attempt a lot of threes and Chicago's perimeter defense is one of the NBA's best as evident in the frequency with which it allows open and wide-open three-point attempts.
That argument does not work, however, because it does not account for Chicago's current defensive form.
Most recently, the Clippers annihilated the Bulls' supposedly strong perimeter defense with 16 threes. They made 44.4 percent of their three-point attempts.
Subsequently, Miami converted an even more ridiculous 17 of 34 three-point attempts against Chicago.
Whether Chicago's perimeter defense is particularly vulnerable against stronger three-point attacks or whether it is just off right now is not necessary to answer against an in-form Boston attack well-stocked with weapons in the form of Tatum and Brown plus the other offense that they help generate.
It is true that Tatum's numbers in two games this season against Chicago are not the prettiest.
But those two games came earlier in the season before he finally found his stroke from deep in March.
What Chicago's Offense Can Add
Chicago loves its ball-screen game featuring above all DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine.
DeRozan has been on a scoring tear, amassing over 30 points in four of his past five games.
He scored 40 in one of those games and 50 in the other.
But LaVine is also important to the offense and it seems likely that he'll be the star tonight who is either banged-up or doesn't play altogether.
Currently, LaVine is listed as 'questionable' with a knee injury.
DeRozan can certainly thrive against a statistically mediocre Celtic ball-screen defense, but losing LaVine means that Chicago will be less potent overall in its ball-screen offense and that it will miss an important source of three-pointers.
The Verdict
Boston's offense will continue to be explosive against Chicago's vulnerable defense.
Meanwhile, led by DeRozan, the Bulls can score enough to help the game go "over."
They won't have to score too much for the "over" to hit and they won't score too much against a Celtic defense that, despite owning the NBA's best scoring defense, would be relieved by LaVine's absence.
Best Bet: Parlay Celtics ATS & Over (Odds TBA)
