Celtics vs. Hawks NBA Picks: Can Boston Contain Trae Young?
Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks
Wednesday, November 17, 2021 at State Farm Arena in Atlanta
Atlanta's Home Success
While the Hawks sit below .500, their struggles have come primarily on the road.
They have nine losses this season and eight of them came in away games. They earned their one road win against lowly New Orleans. On the road, they are 0-9 ATS.
Home games are an utterly different story for this Jekyll-and-Hyde Atlanta team.
The Hawks are 5-1 SU and ATS at home. All of their home wins have been by double digit margins, with the exception of their seven-point win over the Wizards.
Their current home stand attests to their relatively strong play at home. They thrashed defending champion Milwaukee by 20 points before, in their last game, cruising past Orlando by 18 points.
Of course, Atlanta has relied primarily on star point guard Trae Young, He scored 42 against Milwaukee and 23 against the Magic.
Atlanta beat Orlando by enough points to allow Young a couple of extra minutes of rest. In that game, he played fewer minutes than he has in any other game.
So, Young will be relatively fresh for tonight's contest.
Soft Schedule?
One might try to say that Atlanta has benefitted from playing soft opponents at home.
While the Bucks are the defending champs, they have a losing record and miss guys like Khris Middleton and floor-spacer Brook Lopez.
Other Hawk home victims include Orlando and Detroit, the Eastern Conference's two worst teams.
I still think beating Milwaukee by 20 is impressive as it was the Bucks' second-to-worst loss of the season. Plus, fellow victim Washington is 10-3.
Besides playing impressively at home, Atlanta has benefitted from its victims having one consistent feature: unimpressive offense.
The Hawks easily outpace inferior offenses at home and they further benefit when their own strong offense matches up well against the opposing defense.
These last two observations explain why the Hawks have beaten the teams they've beaten at home while, as the one exception, losing to Utah.
Boston's Inferior Offense
Offensively, Boston is one of the NBA's worst teams. The Celtics rank seventh-to-last in offensive rating.
It is no secret that the Celtic offense is struggling: Marcus Smart's vociferous comments has made everybody aware who wasn't before.
Smart's assessment of Boston's offensive struggles is on-point: the Celtic offense is spearheaded by two guys who defenses know to zero in on.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown easily lead the Celtics in scoring: they are the only two players on the team averaging over 20 points per game.
They try to operate by themselves. Hence, Boston runs the second-highest frequency of isolation plays.
Brown and Tatum will take on tough matchups and otherwise try, often against difficult odds, to score.
Conversely, they do not want to create for other players on the team.
Two players, though, can only do so much. Look at Brooklyn's struggles against the league's better defenses for a supporting example: the Nets have two absolute superstars in Kevin Durant and James Harden, but they can't reach 100 points against teams like Golden State and Miami because they rely so heavily on just these two players.
Brown and Tatum are not Durant and Harden, of course, and the Celtics regularly struggle to reach 100 points.
Given their offensive struggles, they typically need to win by holding the opponent to fewer than 100 points. In their last game, for example, they beat Cleveland 98-92 while they still lost the previous game despite holding the Cavaliers to 91 points.
Holding a Hawk team that ranks second in averaging 116.7 points per game at home is, however, a tough ask for any defense.
Hawk Offense vs. Celtic Defense
Atlanta will easily outpace Boston especially because the Celtic defense matches up poorly with the Hawks offense.
Led by Trae Young, the Hawks love to execute the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler.
Young with use the screen to slither his way towards the basket or to pull-up for a shooting opportunity.
The Celtics, however, struggle against this play type. They are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS against teams that rank top 10 in points per game off of this play type.
Atlanta promises to score in droves tonight because it averages 1.3 more points per game off the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler than any other team.
Best Bet: Hawks -4 at -108 with Heritage
Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks
Wednesday, November 17, 2021 at State Farm Arena in Atlanta
Atlanta's Home Success
While the Hawks sit below .500, their struggles have come primarily on the road.
They have nine losses this season and eight of them came in away games. They earned their one road win against lowly New Orleans. On the road, they are 0-9 ATS.
Home games are an utterly different story for this Jekyll-and-Hyde Atlanta team.
The Hawks are 5-1 SU and ATS at home. All of their home wins have been by double digit margins, with the exception of their seven-point win over the Wizards.
Their current home stand attests to their relatively strong play at home. They thrashed defending champion Milwaukee by 20 points before, in their last game, cruising past Orlando by 18 points.
Of course, Atlanta has relied primarily on star point guard Trae Young, He scored 42 against Milwaukee and 23 against the Magic.
Atlanta beat Orlando by enough points to allow Young a couple of extra minutes of rest. In that game, he played fewer minutes than he has in any other game.
So, Young will be relatively fresh for tonight's contest.
Soft Schedule?
One might try to say that Atlanta has benefitted from playing soft opponents at home.
While the Bucks are the defending champs, they have a losing record and miss guys like Khris Middleton and floor-spacer Brook Lopez.
Other Hawk home victims include Orlando and Detroit, the Eastern Conference's two worst teams.
I still think beating Milwaukee by 20 is impressive as it was the Bucks' second-to-worst loss of the season. Plus, fellow victim Washington is 10-3.
Besides playing impressively at home, Atlanta has benefitted from its victims having one consistent feature: unimpressive offense.
The Hawks easily outpace inferior offenses at home and they further benefit when their own strong offense matches up well against the opposing defense.
These last two observations explain why the Hawks have beaten the teams they've beaten at home while, as the one exception, losing to Utah.
Boston's Inferior Offense
Offensively, Boston is one of the NBA's worst teams. The Celtics rank seventh-to-last in offensive rating.
It is no secret that the Celtic offense is struggling: Marcus Smart's vociferous comments has made everybody aware who wasn't before.
Smart's assessment of Boston's offensive struggles is on-point: the Celtic offense is spearheaded by two guys who defenses know to zero in on.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown easily lead the Celtics in scoring: they are the only two players on the team averaging over 20 points per game.
They try to operate by themselves. Hence, Boston runs the second-highest frequency of isolation plays.
Brown and Tatum will take on tough matchups and otherwise try, often against difficult odds, to score.
Conversely, they do not want to create for other players on the team.
Two players, though, can only do so much. Look at Brooklyn's struggles against the league's better defenses for a supporting example: the Nets have two absolute superstars in Kevin Durant and James Harden, but they can't reach 100 points against teams like Golden State and Miami because they rely so heavily on just these two players.
Brown and Tatum are not Durant and Harden, of course, and the Celtics regularly struggle to reach 100 points.
Given their offensive struggles, they typically need to win by holding the opponent to fewer than 100 points. In their last game, for example, they beat Cleveland 98-92 while they still lost the previous game despite holding the Cavaliers to 91 points.
Holding a Hawk team that ranks second in averaging 116.7 points per game at home is, however, a tough ask for any defense.
Hawk Offense vs. Celtic Defense
Atlanta will easily outpace Boston especially because the Celtic defense matches up poorly with the Hawks offense.
Led by Trae Young, the Hawks love to execute the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler.
Young with use the screen to slither his way towards the basket or to pull-up for a shooting opportunity.
The Celtics, however, struggle against this play type. They are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS against teams that rank top 10 in points per game off of this play type.
Atlanta promises to score in droves tonight because it averages 1.3 more points per game off the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler than any other team.
Best Bet: Hawks -4 at -108 with Heritage
