Boston College vs. Florida State College Football Week 1 Odds and Pick
Boston College Eagles vs. Florida State Seminoles
Monday, September 2, 2024 at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee
Handicapping Strategy
It is a handicapping truism that bettors tend to overreact after seeing a team play one game.
We see this overreaction in the extent to which the line has shifted in favor of Boston College.
I don't want to play the spread, because, while Florida State will improve in some respects, some things will also remain the same.
My handicapping strategy here is to use the knowledge of Florida State's players that I possessed before their season began to help guide my expectations for them going forward.
Florida State's No-Attack Pass Attack
One thing that was clear going into the season and that was also evident in the Week 0 loss to Georgia Tech was the deficient skill set of Florida State's quarterback.
DJ Uiagalelei finished Weke 0 with an attractive-looking completion percentage, but that's because he hardly threw the ball past the line of scrimmage.
He lacks the confidence in his accuracy to do so, and there is good reason for this: his career pass completion rate is under 60 percent.
Moreover, he lacks the chemistry with his largely new pass-catching crew, which misses its top three pass-catchers from last year.
This new group features a lot of unproven talent that does not inspire optimism.
Malik Benson, for example, is a starter who, currently a senior, has been unproductive throughout his career.
Jalen Brown, another starter, is a raw freshman.
This group lacks the weaponry to sustain drives or to create big plays with any sort of meaningful consistency.
Boston College's Pass Defense
It is tempting to be determined to view Boston College's defense as a great "get-right" unit for the Seminoles' passing attack.
Georgia Tech had leveled the Seminoles passing group with complex blitzes that pressured and disturbed Uiagalelei.
Florida State backers will justify their optimism by pointing to the Eagles' sack numbers from last year to say that Boston College won't accomplish much pressure.
However, last year was last year, and this year is this year.
This year's Eagles defense is led by a new defensive coordinator, Tim Lewis, who studied under the great Dick LeBeau. LeBeau was known for his zone blitzes.
Tim Lewis will bring the exotic blitzes that stumped Florida State's pass protection last week.
Led by Lewis, as well as promising producers along the defensive line – such as 2022 All-ACC Second Team selection Donovan Ezeiruaku – Boston College's pass rush will improve significantly this year.
Even without any improvement in its pass rush, this is still a solid Eagles pass defense.
Boston College ranked 31st in pass defense last year and boasts a deep group of good defensive backs this year, who have contributed to the annual success of their team's pass defense in most recent seasons.
Too Simple to Stop
Now, the seemingly obvious counterpoint – which Seminoles backers will want to make – is that Boston College's run defense ranked terribly last year and that the Seminoles can simply ride their ground game en route to a high point total.
However, Georgia Tech's defense succeeded in Week 0 despite faring even worse against the run last year than Boston College did last year.
The Yellow Jackets last season ranked 130th in run defense, 20 spots worse than Boston College, and still held the Seminoles to under 100 rushing yards last week.
In Week 0, Florida State looked great on its opening drive, but the Yellow Jackets quickly adjusted in a way that Boston College will be sure to replicate for Florida State's opening drive and onwards.
By altering the positioning and overall focus of their defenders, the Yellow Jackets devoted more attention to stopping the run and succeeded.
Boston College will do the same from the get-go and will succeed because Florida State's offense is too easy to stop given the deficiencies of its pass attack.
On offense, the Seminoles are also especially easy to stop because their offensive coordinator remains suspended. Their play-calling and ability to make adjustments remain limited without him.
Florida State's Run Defense
Might the "under" struggle not because of Florida State's ground game but because of Florida State's rush defense?
No doubt, the Seminoles looked terrible against the run in their Week 0 loss.
Much is being made of this. But this is an overreaction.
The Seminoles, in Week 0, were guilty of sloppy tackling, stopping before the whistle, taking poor angles in pursuit of the ball-carrier, and of so many other things that are decisive and yet have nothing to do with player ability and player talent.
This sort of sloppiness and lack of effort are both entirely fixable. Faced with this embarrassing wake-up call and taking heavy criticism from the media, Florida State's rush defense is primed to improve and to live up to its potential.
Now, much has also been said against Florida State's ability, in particular, to limit mobile quarterbacks. This goes back to last year, so it's not a concern that responds exclusively to the Week 0 loss. It's a relevant concern because Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos is characteristically mobile.
But the Seminoles gave up a lot of their rushing yards when their defense was relaxed with a big lead.
So, for example, they blew out Virginia Tech, which had a mobile quarterback. The Hokies' quarterback amassed a good rushing total by the end of the game, but his offense produced all of ten points in a blowout loss.
In a closer and more competitive matchup, the Seminoles held star LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels to his worst overall game of the season, including one of his worst yards per carry averages.
They also showed their ability to lock down scrambling quarterbacks when they blew out Syracuse.
Skeptics will point out Boston College's success in Week 3.
While the Eagles did score 29 points in a near-win over the Seminoles, Florida State's personnel was struggling with a flu bug.
Florida State was up 31-10 in that game. This is a crucial point because the flu will wear down any player's endurance level. It is hard to play four quarters when your body is fighting off a flu bug, so Boston College's comeback effort – in which it amassed so many points – lacks predictive value especially in light of Florida State's other successes.
Florida State's Run-Stopping Personnel
These successes show that Florida State has the ability to lock down scrambling quarterbacks especially in a closer game, which is what we'll see more of this year in Florida State's games because of how much worse its quarterback is this year.
Will Florida State's front seven be good enough this year to justify the claim about the Seminoles' ability to lock down scrambling quarterbacks?
Most of the doubts surrounding Florida State's front seven concerns its linebacking crew.
I don't see an issue here, ultimately because there are more than enough capable players in this group.
Omar Graham Jr. played with unbelievable incompetence in Week 0, failing to register a single tackle. When he was on the field, it was like Florida State played with ten men.
Currently, he is listed as a backup. He was a consistent performer for the Seminoles, in a deep linebacking group, throughout last year, though. The Seminoles do also have other options.
Expect more snaps from Blake Nichelson who did show a difference-making level of awareness and intensity, making use of his speed and quickness.
Justin Cryer, who is also experienced and who is physical and who looked better than Graham in Week 0, should also see more playing time after receiving little in the Georgia Tech game.
DJ Lundy, viewed as a key returner for the linebacking unit before the season, should improve to a meaningful extent as the top returning tackler from last season.
The defensive line as a whole likewise underperformed in Week 0 but should improve significantly.
This group received much hype before the season because of its depth. It is a deep group filled with proven talent, so there is no reason to dispute its potential because of one bad game.
Some key personnel who have shown their worth over consistent playing time include defensive tackle Joshua Farmer, a former second-team All-ACC selection, and the lengthy, very well-sized, and speedy fellow defensive lineman Darrell Jackson Jr.
This group will face a Boston College offensive line that will take a significant step back in quality this year. It has lost two guards to the NFL and will experience some positional reshuffling.
Florida State's Secondary
Thomas Castellanos might also not run so much in his new pro-style offense, which positions him more often to encounter a fierce Seminole secondary that undoubtedly forms the strength of the defense.
Florida State ranked 16th in pass defense last year and is stacked with returning talent.
This group ensured that Georgia Tech's offense would remain run-centered and conservative, even though its quarterback is arguably a much better passer – one who is more efficient and less averse to turnovers – than Boston College's Castellanos.
Castellanos – unlike LSU's Daniels – was not a known piece when he took over at quarterback for Boston College and faced the Seminoles, but now the Seminoles will be extra ready for him.
Takeaway
Both teams will be limited in their pass attacks: two quarterbacks who struggle to throw the ball will face strong secondaries.
This game will feature a lot of running and, therefore, a lot of clock-draining.
But neither team's run game will be strong enough to threaten the "under," as the Eagles will be able to stack the box while the Seminoles have the talent in their personnel to improve significantly after their Week 0 sloppy low-effort dud that is causing bettors to overreact.
Best Bet: Under 50 at -110 with BetOnline
Boston College Eagles vs. Florida State Seminoles
Monday, September 2, 2024 at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee
Handicapping Strategy
It is a handicapping truism that bettors tend to overreact after seeing a team play one game.
We see this overreaction in the extent to which the line has shifted in favor of Boston College.
I don't want to play the spread, because, while Florida State will improve in some respects, some things will also remain the same.
My handicapping strategy here is to use the knowledge of Florida State's players that I possessed before their season began to help guide my expectations for them going forward.
Florida State's No-Attack Pass Attack
One thing that was clear going into the season and that was also evident in the Week 0 loss to Georgia Tech was the deficient skill set of Florida State's quarterback.
DJ Uiagalelei finished Weke 0 with an attractive-looking completion percentage, but that's because he hardly threw the ball past the line of scrimmage.
He lacks the confidence in his accuracy to do so, and there is good reason for this: his career pass completion rate is under 60 percent.
Moreover, he lacks the chemistry with his largely new pass-catching crew, which misses its top three pass-catchers from last year.
This new group features a lot of unproven talent that does not inspire optimism.
Malik Benson, for example, is a starter who, currently a senior, has been unproductive throughout his career.
Jalen Brown, another starter, is a raw freshman.
This group lacks the weaponry to sustain drives or to create big plays with any sort of meaningful consistency.
Boston College's Pass Defense
It is tempting to be determined to view Boston College's defense as a great "get-right" unit for the Seminoles' passing attack.
Georgia Tech had leveled the Seminoles passing group with complex blitzes that pressured and disturbed Uiagalelei.
Florida State backers will justify their optimism by pointing to the Eagles' sack numbers from last year to say that Boston College won't accomplish much pressure.
However, last year was last year, and this year is this year.
This year's Eagles defense is led by a new defensive coordinator, Tim Lewis, who studied under the great Dick LeBeau. LeBeau was known for his zone blitzes.
Tim Lewis will bring the exotic blitzes that stumped Florida State's pass protection last week.
Led by Lewis, as well as promising producers along the defensive line – such as 2022 All-ACC Second Team selection Donovan Ezeiruaku – Boston College's pass rush will improve significantly this year.
Even without any improvement in its pass rush, this is still a solid Eagles pass defense.
Boston College ranked 31st in pass defense last year and boasts a deep group of good defensive backs this year, who have contributed to the annual success of their team's pass defense in most recent seasons.
Too Simple to Stop
Now, the seemingly obvious counterpoint – which Seminoles backers will want to make – is that Boston College's run defense ranked terribly last year and that the Seminoles can simply ride their ground game en route to a high point total.
However, Georgia Tech's defense succeeded in Week 0 despite faring even worse against the run last year than Boston College did last year.
The Yellow Jackets last season ranked 130th in run defense, 20 spots worse than Boston College, and still held the Seminoles to under 100 rushing yards last week.
In Week 0, Florida State looked great on its opening drive, but the Yellow Jackets quickly adjusted in a way that Boston College will be sure to replicate for Florida State's opening drive and onwards.
By altering the positioning and overall focus of their defenders, the Yellow Jackets devoted more attention to stopping the run and succeeded.
Boston College will do the same from the get-go and will succeed because Florida State's offense is too easy to stop given the deficiencies of its pass attack.
On offense, the Seminoles are also especially easy to stop because their offensive coordinator remains suspended. Their play-calling and ability to make adjustments remain limited without him.
Florida State's Run Defense
Might the "under" struggle not because of Florida State's ground game but because of Florida State's rush defense?
No doubt, the Seminoles looked terrible against the run in their Week 0 loss.
Much is being made of this. But this is an overreaction.
The Seminoles, in Week 0, were guilty of sloppy tackling, stopping before the whistle, taking poor angles in pursuit of the ball-carrier, and of so many other things that are decisive and yet have nothing to do with player ability and player talent.
This sort of sloppiness and lack of effort are both entirely fixable. Faced with this embarrassing wake-up call and taking heavy criticism from the media, Florida State's rush defense is primed to improve and to live up to its potential.
Now, much has also been said against Florida State's ability, in particular, to limit mobile quarterbacks. This goes back to last year, so it's not a concern that responds exclusively to the Week 0 loss. It's a relevant concern because Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos is characteristically mobile.
But the Seminoles gave up a lot of their rushing yards when their defense was relaxed with a big lead.
So, for example, they blew out Virginia Tech, which had a mobile quarterback. The Hokies' quarterback amassed a good rushing total by the end of the game, but his offense produced all of ten points in a blowout loss.
In a closer and more competitive matchup, the Seminoles held star LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels to his worst overall game of the season, including one of his worst yards per carry averages.
They also showed their ability to lock down scrambling quarterbacks when they blew out Syracuse.
Skeptics will point out Boston College's success in Week 3.
While the Eagles did score 29 points in a near-win over the Seminoles, Florida State's personnel was struggling with a flu bug.
Florida State was up 31-10 in that game. This is a crucial point because the flu will wear down any player's endurance level. It is hard to play four quarters when your body is fighting off a flu bug, so Boston College's comeback effort – in which it amassed so many points – lacks predictive value especially in light of Florida State's other successes.
Florida State's Run-Stopping Personnel
These successes show that Florida State has the ability to lock down scrambling quarterbacks especially in a closer game, which is what we'll see more of this year in Florida State's games because of how much worse its quarterback is this year.
Will Florida State's front seven be good enough this year to justify the claim about the Seminoles' ability to lock down scrambling quarterbacks?
Most of the doubts surrounding Florida State's front seven concerns its linebacking crew.
I don't see an issue here, ultimately because there are more than enough capable players in this group.
Omar Graham Jr. played with unbelievable incompetence in Week 0, failing to register a single tackle. When he was on the field, it was like Florida State played with ten men.
Currently, he is listed as a backup. He was a consistent performer for the Seminoles, in a deep linebacking group, throughout last year, though. The Seminoles do also have other options.
Expect more snaps from Blake Nichelson who did show a difference-making level of awareness and intensity, making use of his speed and quickness.
Justin Cryer, who is also experienced and who is physical and who looked better than Graham in Week 0, should also see more playing time after receiving little in the Georgia Tech game.
DJ Lundy, viewed as a key returner for the linebacking unit before the season, should improve to a meaningful extent as the top returning tackler from last season.
The defensive line as a whole likewise underperformed in Week 0 but should improve significantly.
This group received much hype before the season because of its depth. It is a deep group filled with proven talent, so there is no reason to dispute its potential because of one bad game.
Some key personnel who have shown their worth over consistent playing time include defensive tackle Joshua Farmer, a former second-team All-ACC selection, and the lengthy, very well-sized, and speedy fellow defensive lineman Darrell Jackson Jr.
This group will face a Boston College offensive line that will take a significant step back in quality this year. It has lost two guards to the NFL and will experience some positional reshuffling.
Florida State's Secondary
Thomas Castellanos might also not run so much in his new pro-style offense, which positions him more often to encounter a fierce Seminole secondary that undoubtedly forms the strength of the defense.
Florida State ranked 16th in pass defense last year and is stacked with returning talent.
This group ensured that Georgia Tech's offense would remain run-centered and conservative, even though its quarterback is arguably a much better passer – one who is more efficient and less averse to turnovers – than Boston College's Castellanos.
Castellanos – unlike LSU's Daniels – was not a known piece when he took over at quarterback for Boston College and faced the Seminoles, but now the Seminoles will be extra ready for him.
Takeaway
Both teams will be limited in their pass attacks: two quarterbacks who struggle to throw the ball will face strong secondaries.
This game will feature a lot of running and, therefore, a lot of clock-draining.
But neither team's run game will be strong enough to threaten the "under," as the Eagles will be able to stack the box while the Seminoles have the talent in their personnel to improve significantly after their Week 0 sloppy low-effort dud that is causing bettors to overreact.
Best Bet: Under 50 at -110 with BetOnline
