Boston/Cleveland Total

[BetCrimes1984]

These teams have now had 3 meetings in Boston this season. Unfortunately LBJ missed the Dec. game so it's somehwat tainted as a guide, but not completely....

December meeting
148 shots at 35.1%
8 x 3-ptrs made
38 FTs made
32 TOs.
Pierce 2-7 FG - 7 pts
150 pt total

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]February meeting[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]146 shots at 44.5%[/FONT][FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]
10 x 3-ptrs made
39 FTs made
34 TOs.
LBJ & Pierce 11-38 FG - 38 pts
179 pt total​

Game 1
143 total shots at 36.3%
8 x 3-ptrs made
36 FTs made
38 TOs.
LBJ & Pierce 4-32 FG - 16 pts
148 pt total​

Shot attempts, FTs & 3s made, TOs commited are all essentially identical - what this speaks to is the pace-of-game comfort zone these 2 teams have when facing one another in Boston (in Cleveland, it's a different matter).
The highest scoring game is the only game to come close to reaching a 45.0% FG shooting number. These are 2 teams that play aggressive D, and the TO numbers witness it.​

So the question for game 2 is - if the pace-of-game comfort zone these 2 teams have established gets repeated a 4th straight time, and the playoff atmosphere once again extends it's influence to "prevent" them coming near shooting 45%+, what's the attraction for taking Over here (even at 177.5)?
You're simply not going to get enough shots put up, shot at a significant enough % mark, to win your bet unless an ungodly amount of FT attempts are both given and made (about 48-50 made, requiring at least 62-65 attempts).​

I'm making no commitment to Under yet (line moves & popularity are far from being finalised), I'm initially posting this to temper anyone's eyes which have lit up at this line and thought of Over and nothing else.[/FONT]​

 

[Master P]

thanks BC, great stuff as always, GL on your play :cheers:

 

[chancedog]

Do you think with Pierce, Allen, and LBJ coming off terriable offensive performances in game 1 do they play up their offense ?

 

[brewer]

good stuff

 

[tazz]

good stuff betcrimes...i took the over in game 1 and i felt like an ass for doing it....i won't make the same mistake....gl buddy

 

[EHS49]

great post. it's either an under play or no play at all.

 

[ontime23]

great post. it's either an under play or no play at all.

don't agree at all

 

[CollegeKingRex]

Why not, ontime?

The above stats basically tell you what happened.

Barring ot, this game has little chance of going over.

 

[EHS49]

don't agree at all

should cash for you! fading me last 3 bets is 3-0!

 

[CapTwo]

gl BC

i ended up taking the first half under instead, but was looking at em both.

 

[wreck]

its just so painful watching these two teams play such ugly ball. the worst.

 

[flounder101]

Good defense wins. I'll take the under 177.5. Besides, I love unders.

As always, good luck to all and remember........

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I've only just been able to get online because of internet connection problems, so didnt even have a chance to weigh up line moves etc to make a choice on this one. BOL to those who played any aspect of this game.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Game 2
145 total shots at 37.9%
5 x 3-ptrs made
47 FTs made (from 65 attempts ironically, given what I noted)
27 TOs
LBJ & Pierce 13-37 - 40 pts
162 pt total

Even with the FT numbers present that I projected would be needed for an Over, they still delivered the Under (pretty much because the 3 shooting, and FG shooting in general, was abysmal).

 

[ontime23]

damn was i wrong this series is ugly oppositeof det/orl series