boston at utah.

some things to consider...

utah is looking ahead to monday's matchup with the lakers (hoping to avenge a 30 point loss last time out)

utah coming off a 10 point win at denver, while boston is off an embarassing 26 point loss at la.

both teams are coming off b2b games. i believe line will be around 11-13 points...a bit too much i believe.

there are certain positive ats advantages for boston based on their scoring in their last game...

i know this is weak, but boston is avenging a loss from earlier in the season.

utah does not blow out teams at utah, while boston keeps games close (they themselves do not get blown out...except friday's game)...

boston is surprisingly 6-4 su, and 7-3 ats against utah!

i wouldn't be surprised if boston wins this game straight up!!!
this may come out to be one of my biggest underdog bets of the season. good luck, boys :smiley_acbe: :cheers: :spank:
 
situation wise..very solid.

Utah injuries..need to know more

The ability of Utah to control glass scares me.

Great thoughts though..
 
oh snap, just found out that this will be utah's 2nd game without their star (okur)--usually a bad angle for such a team. also, with utah winning easily on espn last friday, every tom, dick, and jane will bet their asses on the 'superior' jazz to beat the crap out of the lowly celts. with boston in despeartion mode to win at least one game on this western road trip, i might just consider moneylining this biatch...:spank:


btw, boston is 10-3 ats off 0 day's rest!
 
Gee that makes a lot of sense Boston is 7-3 ATS vs. Utah over their last ten meetings. Why that means anything is beyond me? Lets see they play each other twice a year and that would be five years worth of games and you're basing part of your decision making on that stat? Man, that's rediculous. Five years ago the Celtics were a decent team and the Jazz were on the decline. The rosters don't look the same and really the only constant is the coaching philosophy of Gerry Sloan. Boston has gone through multiple coaches and both of these teams rosters have probably flipped a couple of times if not three. So how and why you even waste your time digging up this type of information is beyond me. I can make the case that you can't use any information you may have from last years Utah team to hang your hat on a strong play this season. Utah is one of the top second tier teams in the league. On paper this game is no contest but that's why they play the games and you and I are only left to guess as to who is going to win and by what margin.

Good luck chief and by the way "Life is dandy when you're capping the game with Handy"
 
I agree with what Handy is saying. I would be interested in finding out if Boozer plays on b2b with the knee. He looked good last night, really showing no side effects here. I would say Boston should come out with a better game than what was showed last night. But, 7.5 is grabbing Utah here by most I would say. I am going to stay away most likely
 
handy,

i use historical data (L10 games played between the two teams) to get a sense of how one teams matches up with another. this is the nba. teams do not drastically change from year to year. my point was that the c's match up well with the jazz. the question of whether they are 'better' than the jazz is another story. remember, the 'better' team does not always win every day. in this case, today, you have a highly motivated underdog in boston against (imo) a disinterested favorite in utah.

i appreciate your criticism...honestly :)
 
btw,

this might sound strange, but if both ak and okur are out today and the line balloons to 11+, i will not go as heavy as originally planned (utah will be slightly more motivated, since both stars are now out)....
clover.gif
 
linewatcher said:
handy,

i use historical data (L10 games played between the two teams) to get a sense of how one teams matches up with another. this is the nba. teams do not drastically change from year to year. my point was that the c's match up well with the jazz. the question of whether they are 'better' than the jazz is another story. remember, the 'better' team does not always win every day. in this case, today, you have a highly motivated underdog in boston against (imo) a disinterested favorite in utah.

i appreciate your criticism...honestly :)
Click to expand...
how are they motivated?
 
let me take back that previous statement. if both okur and ak play, the line will balloon to 11+, i will play it large. if either star will play, i will likewise play it large. if it goes down (both or either star is out), then i will make this a regular play. in this scenario utah will be slighltly more motivated. if it stays the same, i will hammer the c's.
bigsmile.gif
 
cakeoff,

boston is reeling right now. i know they are in the hunt for the top lottery pick, but no nba team will tank the season this early in the season. they will be motivated to at least win one game on this road trip (if they do is still a question...but they will be motivated). and add to that their last game---they got shallacked by the lakers yesterday. when a team gets embarassed as they did yesterday, such a team usually gets up more than usual in their next game. granted these are the c's, but don't underestimate. remember, as handy pointed it out earlier, that's why they play the games...:spank:
 
Linewatcher,

I'm sure you don't care but in my eyes you continue to embarass yourself with your remarks regarding this game. Why don't you go look at the active rosters for all the games which these two have played over the past five years. Then talk to me. Lets see how different these teams really are from year to year. I can assure you the Jazz don't look anything like they did even two years ago.

The Celtics have flip flopped their roster like you change your socks.

I promise you the only constant is Utah's coaching philosophy. That's it the rest is a hopeless pipe dream.
 
sorry man, I just dislike it a lot, and am even considering taking the other side. Utah have Deron and Boozer back, they have more than enough depth (as shown last night in Denver) and even though it's always tiring to play b2b with Denver game involved (regardless of which end of a b2b we're talking about), the Celtics just don't have me convinced at all. We're talking about a lackluster team which tends to show up once or twice in 5 games.

They covered a lot on the road? They were playing ABOVE their abilities and some superior teams couldn't care less about whether they win by 14 or 9, that's it. I don't see a game Boston actually played better than the opponent, during their huge losing streak.

Now Pierce is back, but these guys have no expectations for this season naturally, less than 30 games left and they're rock bottom.

I said something about Utah being b2b. How about BOSTON being b2b, plus playing in SLC which is also never a pleasant experience?

Look at these Jazz guys, they're stepping up every night regardless of who's missing, they lost against Portland and BARELY, mostly because they were missing Deron, Okur AND Boozer, now we have 2 out of these 3 back and the line is 8?

What's 8 here? If Utah dominates the match I don't see a problem of them covering. I just don't think how the Celtics are a team to trust all of a sudden.

:shake:
 
It's not about talking after the game. I'm just calling you out on the information you're presenting. I don't understand how you can apply it to this game? I don't think you know either.

Good luck
 
handy said:
Linewatcher,

I'm sure you don't care but in my eyes you continue to embarass yourself with your remarks regarding this game. Why don't you go look at the active rosters for all the games which these two have played over the past five years. Then talk to me. Lets see how different these teams really are from year to year. I can assure you the Jazz don't look anything like they did even two years ago.

The Celtics have flip flopped their roster like you change your socks.

I promise you the only constant is Utah's coaching philosophy. That's it the rest is a hopeless pipe dream.
Click to expand...

We're talking about ATS records, though...so even if the players are different, you have to figure that the players would have factored in to the line in the first place. What we want to know, is whether Jerry Sloan teams traditionally match up for better or worse with Doc Rivers coached teams...and a 7-3 ATS record over the past 5 years could indicate that Doc's teams can hold their own against Sloan and outperform expectations.

That being said, it's probably more likely that the Celtics are 7-3 due to pure, blind coincidence.

I don't think the worst team in the NBA getting 7.5 points on the road is enough to warrant a MDF play-I know it might be ok at $50, but there is no way I'd bet $500,000 on this play!
 
btw boozer only played think 12 minutes last night, don't see that increasing tonight.

Take it for what it's worth don't relly like this game.
 
Books are certainly niggards with only +300 on Boston ML, they seem to account with the upset.

It would certainly be cute if Celtics won after the latest days of nostalgia following the death of D.J.
 
I have a different take on this one. C's playing 4/5 with absolutely no hear or will. AK-47 has been crap all year and isn't worth a point on the spread.
 
I like the spot for boston here is why. Utah may get up by 20 by half. Since they have had some injuries of late they will give their starters limited time in the second half allowing for a nice cover for boston. Coaching staff for Utah isn't worried about how many points they can score on boston they have their eyes set on things beyond that of the likes of the postseason, so they won't risk their starters on the basis of embarassing boston. just my 2 cents.

BOL tonight.
 
could be Frankie, but when I take the points (especially on the road and backing such a lousy team as Boston) I'd like to think they can stay in the game until late 4th not fold after 5,6 mins and see them chase a 20 point deficit for the whole game. Every outcome is possible, always. But I think Utah can hurt them a lot despite missing Okur and/or AK 47.
 
Linewatcher,

I'm not here to have at it. I didn't see the game but just saw the final score and I couldn't help but think of you. All I will continue to preech is the past doesn't mean shit when it comes to tonights game. It never has and it never will. It's just a big myth that handicappers try to rely on something which happened before. Think about this for a minute. Now you add this ATS loss for Boston or win for Utah into that silly number. So what? Will anyone remember all the injured players who didn't play for both teams? Man, all I will tell you is you will find yourself in the poor house relying on bull shit information like the stuff you presented. To each their own but I bet on games in the present and not the past. Now please don't take this the wrong way as I'm just offering constructive criticism. Well now I'm going to put away my swizzle stick and save it for my next drink.

Good luck and as always life is dandy "WHEN YOU'RE CAPPING THE GAME LIKE HANDY"
 
still would love to see handy post a play instead of just handing out criticism from on high.....
 
don't worry about it linewatcher, you were on the wrong side tonight, so what? You'll bounce back. :shake:
 
:shake: i understand where you are coming from, handy. but just because i mentioned the stats as listed above doesn't mean i based my bet on solely those stats. there were also some other situational aspects that i did not include... in all, the game is done. can't cry over spilled milk. onto tomorrow.:shake:
 
Boston have had an incredible ATS run on the road even factoring their woes this season so wasn't necessarily a bad bet to begin with - you'll get them tomorrow :shake:
 
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