Pacers Are Out Of Breath Against More Talented Celtics
Boston (52-33 SU, 41-42-2 ATS) at Indiana (48-37 SU, 40-44-1 ATS
When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (ABC)
NBA Pick: Celtics ATS
Oddsmakers are wrong in their pricing of both Boston and Indiana in this series. Boston, which suffered a couple funks due to poor team chemistry in the second half of the season, is better than a 4 seed. After all, this is a team that made the Conference Finals last year despite losing Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward before the playoffs began.
On the other side, the Pacers are the 5 seed, but truly are not a playoff-caliber team without star player Victor Oladipo. Over the past two years, the Pacers are a 53.9 win team after going 73-38 with Oladipo. Conversely, they are a 35.9 win team without him, going 23-30. This season, 35 wins would have made them the 11th-seed in the Eastern Conference, meaning that they wouldn't have even sniffed the playoffs.
During Oladipo's absence, the Pacers went 7-14 ATS against playoff teams during the regular season. Plus, they are 0-3 ATS against Boston in this series. Playing at home has not helped, either, as the Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games, with the one cover coming against a Pistons team that was missing their best player and leading scorer, Blake Griffin. Without Oladipo, the Pacers have won six times versus playoff teams including twice against Detroit minus Griffin, once against Toronto minus the resting Kawhi Leonard, against the Clippers right after the trade deadline before which the Clippers actively changed their team, and against Denver and Oklahoma City, which were playing consecutive games.
One might want to bet Indiana, thinking that Boston loses focus and fails to take Indiana seriously. I think that Boston can still motivate itself because it can play a lot better than it has been playing and will need to play better in the playoffs going forward. What is so scary about Boston is its plethora of scoring talent. At point guard, they are led by Kyrie Irving, who put up 37 points in Game 2. When Indiana focuses on limiting Irving's production, other Celtic players like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are able to step up with efficient scoring.
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Defensively, Boston has been stifling. In Game 1, the Celtics held the Pacers to an eight-point quarter. In Game 2, they held them to a 12-point quarter. In Game 3, they limited Indiana to 12 points in the third-quarter and 10-for-36 (27.7%) shooting in the entire second half. Boston's ability to lock down Indiana completely for prolonged periods of time has allowed Boston to separate itself from Indiana, even when its field goal efficiency begins to sink.
What Boston does well is prevent Indiana's top shooters from finding any rhythm behind the arc. Indiana also lacks the personnel to generate open shots off dribble penetration or otherwise. Its top distributor is rather average and has been even worse this series--point guard Darren Collison, who averaged six assists per game during the regular season, but is accruing only 3.7 assists so far. For comparison's sake, Boston's back-up point guard Terry Rozier has been distributing the ball nearly as well for his team. Instead, the Celtics are happy to allow one of the NBA's most inefficient scorers in Tyreke Evans to shoulder a large load of Indiana's scoring.
Besides at point guard, Indiana is also out-matched on the glass. Since Oladipo's injury, the Pacers have been statistically one of the NBA's worst rebounding teams. The Celtics have been the most effective playoff team in defensive rebounding percentage and limiting second-chance points. Boston's ability to box-out and clean up on the glass gives Indiana's offense a that much smaller margin of error.
Boston (52-33 SU, 41-42-2 ATS) at Indiana (48-37 SU, 40-44-1 ATS
When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (ABC)
NBA Pick: Celtics ATS
Oddsmakers are wrong in their pricing of both Boston and Indiana in this series. Boston, which suffered a couple funks due to poor team chemistry in the second half of the season, is better than a 4 seed. After all, this is a team that made the Conference Finals last year despite losing Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward before the playoffs began.
On the other side, the Pacers are the 5 seed, but truly are not a playoff-caliber team without star player Victor Oladipo. Over the past two years, the Pacers are a 53.9 win team after going 73-38 with Oladipo. Conversely, they are a 35.9 win team without him, going 23-30. This season, 35 wins would have made them the 11th-seed in the Eastern Conference, meaning that they wouldn't have even sniffed the playoffs.
During Oladipo's absence, the Pacers went 7-14 ATS against playoff teams during the regular season. Plus, they are 0-3 ATS against Boston in this series. Playing at home has not helped, either, as the Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games, with the one cover coming against a Pistons team that was missing their best player and leading scorer, Blake Griffin. Without Oladipo, the Pacers have won six times versus playoff teams including twice against Detroit minus Griffin, once against Toronto minus the resting Kawhi Leonard, against the Clippers right after the trade deadline before which the Clippers actively changed their team, and against Denver and Oklahoma City, which were playing consecutive games.
One might want to bet Indiana, thinking that Boston loses focus and fails to take Indiana seriously. I think that Boston can still motivate itself because it can play a lot better than it has been playing and will need to play better in the playoffs going forward. What is so scary about Boston is its plethora of scoring talent. At point guard, they are led by Kyrie Irving, who put up 37 points in Game 2. When Indiana focuses on limiting Irving's production, other Celtic players like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are able to step up with efficient scoring.
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Defensively, Boston has been stifling. In Game 1, the Celtics held the Pacers to an eight-point quarter. In Game 2, they held them to a 12-point quarter. In Game 3, they limited Indiana to 12 points in the third-quarter and 10-for-36 (27.7%) shooting in the entire second half. Boston's ability to lock down Indiana completely for prolonged periods of time has allowed Boston to separate itself from Indiana, even when its field goal efficiency begins to sink.
What Boston does well is prevent Indiana's top shooters from finding any rhythm behind the arc. Indiana also lacks the personnel to generate open shots off dribble penetration or otherwise. Its top distributor is rather average and has been even worse this series--point guard Darren Collison, who averaged six assists per game during the regular season, but is accruing only 3.7 assists so far. For comparison's sake, Boston's back-up point guard Terry Rozier has been distributing the ball nearly as well for his team. Instead, the Celtics are happy to allow one of the NBA's most inefficient scorers in Tyreke Evans to shoulder a large load of Indiana's scoring.
Besides at point guard, Indiana is also out-matched on the glass. Since Oladipo's injury, the Pacers have been statistically one of the NBA's worst rebounding teams. The Celtics have been the most effective playoff team in defensive rebounding percentage and limiting second-chance points. Boston's ability to box-out and clean up on the glass gives Indiana's offense a that much smaller margin of error.
