BoSox 15-1 hedge help, please?

[yurf]

Long time CTG member but rarely post. Need help with the best way to hedge my Boston 15-1 WS ticket to win 1600. I haven't hedged anything up to this point. I can get STL +113 right now for tonight's game and +220 for the series. Hoping one of you better at math than me can let me know if it's better to bet stl tonight for the game and rollover winnings on stl series at that point or take stl series now smaller and if they lose again stl series again down 0-2. Just trying to maximize profit....

 

[emg2525]

Long time CTG member but rarely post. Need help with the best way to hedge my Boston 15-1 WS ticket to win 1600. I haven't hedged anything up to this point. I can get STL +113 right now for tonight's game and +220 for the series. Hoping one of you better at math than me can let me know if it's better to bet stl tonight for the game and rollover winnings on stl series at that point or take stl series now smaller and if they lose again stl series again down 0-2. Just trying to maximize profit....

It depends how important the $100 you risked is to you.

If you want to risk it, you let it ride.

If you want to be very conservative, throw 500 on the Cards now, and guarantee yourself around $1k.

 

[yurf]

$100 is not that important to me but would feel stupid not locking in some profit at this point. Question is would it be better to only bet $100 on cards series +220 and if they lose tonight bet another $100 on card series before they get back home. Anyone have an idea what series price for stl will be if they lose tonight? Thanks emg for your response.

 

[nbafan88]

do not hedge

 

[yurf]

Also emg I think in your scenario I only guarantee myself a total net of $500 if cards win. Will have spent $600 to win $1100 at +220. Red Sox still win it would net $1000. True par bet at +220 would be 727.27 on stl. It would net 772 for both bets if my math is correct. I just wonder if I can risk less tonight in the +220 for a break even and then bet more on cards series if they lose tonight. Anybody have a guess to stl series price if they lose tonight?

 

[yurf]

do not hedge

As in you never hedge or just in this situation?

 

[emg2525]

$100 is not that important to me but would feel stupid not locking in some profit at this point. Question is would it be better to only bet $100 on cards series +220 and if they lose tonight bet another $100 on card series before they get back home. Anyone have an idea what series price for stl will be if they lose tonight? Thanks emg for your response.

Guessing Cardinals go back to St Louis around -125 to win the series IF they win game 2. Agreed, boys?

 

[nbafan88]

As in you never hedge or just in this situation?

i do not see why you would?

most of the work has been done to get the W... and you want to just bail now?

Has the reason you took the redsox in the first place, changed?

Why would it be foolish if you didn't hedge? Did you make the wager with the intention to hedge?

 

[tazz]

yurf, you can bet the game independently but that should have nothing to do with the future you have on boston

i am in the same boat, had boston futured and today took st loo at +210...greening out is the best thing to do, you guarantee profit...if you think that boston wins the series, you don't have to put as much on the cards to wint the series but you should put some

this is what i would do:

Your Current Bet: Boston win the WS $100 to win $1600
Take St Louis now +210 to win the WS $400 to win $840

therefore if boston wins you win the $1600 - $400 you put down = $1200
if st louis wins you win the $840 - 100 = $740

depending on how confident you are, you can play with the numbers..it's a win win proposition

betting today's game has nothing to do with the series bet

 

[tazz]

i don't know about the advice people are giving you in this thread but if you are a trader, this is a no thought situation...you take st loo today and enjoy the rest of the ws...you can do tweaks here and there if you wish

 

[scdoggy]

Tazz is right. Take St Loo for the series right now and make money.

 

[nbafan88]

If you want to hedge, you take the series price now like posted above

 

[scdoggy]

Yurf - just curious when did you place the 15-1 Sox win it all wager? Was that before the season started or mid-season?

 

[yurf]

Thanks all for the input fellas. Much appreciated.

 

[yurf]

Yurf - just curious when did you place the 15-1 Sox win it all wager? Was that before the season started or mid-season?

It was at Harrah's in Vegas a few days after the bombings. I should have shopped because I could have gotten a better line but was 40 something hours into a drunken Vegas bender...

 

[HUNT]

always make money...always.

 

[scdoggy]

well done Yurf. Congrats.

 

[cxbbum]

ya gotta hedge....if you Invest in sports for a Profit, you Must hedge in some form or another....it's All about Profit....\m/