bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
WEEK#7: 4-3
SEASON: 32-23-1
SELECTIONS:
SHawks/Cowboys OVER 40.5 L - It seems very reasonable that Shawks & Boys both get to 20, or one team gets to 24 other to 17. "Cowboys are bad" seems to be the common wisdom. Of course they are not the same w/o Romo/Dez but they appear to put forth maximum effort. If Cassel throws ints this week it may actually help the over. In any case, I have game @ a 44-45 total score.
Cowboys +6 W - Taking this home team with + points against what I see as an over-valued Shawks on the road. Dallas' D will pressure Wilson and cover the wideouts. I am taking this for 1/2 unit right now and will watch line to see if it moves. Hardy will take his anger out on Seattle and I think Boys keep it close. They might even get a start like they did against Falcons.
Cards/Browns OVER 46 W - Palmer, Fitzgerald, CJohnson/Ellington should score early & often. I capped game @ 30-24, but could envision a scenario where Browns get only 13-16. I actually think Cards may get 27 or so in 1H alone. Browns usually good for 20 @ home and coming off a bad loss before having division games upcoming. Cards are traveling west-east but get the "extra hour" Sunday. Maybe we get lucky and only need 14-17 after 1H. OVER 46 it is.
Packers -2.5 (-115) L - It always concerns me when I am extremely confident in a pick AND the public is too. I'm seeing now that 75% of wagers on GB. It usually makes me stay away or really reconsider....but not here. Denver is all about defense and while Peyton is a wise old QB he's not mobile and arm has deteriorated as we all know. They have no real running game and have depended on pick 6s to win a few games. But, this time its Aaron Rodgers off a bye and a formidable, and quick, GB defense. Both teams are tied for 3rd in takeaway/giveaway margin...however GB has only turned the ball over 4 times while Broncos/Peyton have thrown 11 interceptions to GB's 2 (I think both were in same game as I recall). Arguably the best/2nd best QB in all of football giving only 2.5 points. Count me in with Tom, Dick & Harry. Post Script: Excellent write-up in CDS' thread on this game. And, I do not think this line of -2.5 will be there at game time fwiw
Current Leans & Only Leans: Under 51 Thursday, Under 39.5 Niners/Rams, Lions +4, Raiders +1.5, Boys +6 & Packers -3.......i took under TNF but it won't count b/c did not post. I have decided to pass on Lions. Looking at Bengals/Steelers Under 48 and Chargers/Ravens Over 50 and Ravens -3. Possible Tampa but need line to go above 7.
Also lean Vikes, but they have not won @ Bears since 2007 as I recall.
ADDS:
Lions TT OVER 20.5 L
Bucs/Falcons Over 24 2H (-120) W
SEASON: 32-23-1
SELECTIONS:
SHawks/Cowboys OVER 40.5 L - It seems very reasonable that Shawks & Boys both get to 20, or one team gets to 24 other to 17. "Cowboys are bad" seems to be the common wisdom. Of course they are not the same w/o Romo/Dez but they appear to put forth maximum effort. If Cassel throws ints this week it may actually help the over. In any case, I have game @ a 44-45 total score.
Cowboys +6 W - Taking this home team with + points against what I see as an over-valued Shawks on the road. Dallas' D will pressure Wilson and cover the wideouts. I am taking this for 1/2 unit right now and will watch line to see if it moves. Hardy will take his anger out on Seattle and I think Boys keep it close. They might even get a start like they did against Falcons.
Cards/Browns OVER 46 W - Palmer, Fitzgerald, CJohnson/Ellington should score early & often. I capped game @ 30-24, but could envision a scenario where Browns get only 13-16. I actually think Cards may get 27 or so in 1H alone. Browns usually good for 20 @ home and coming off a bad loss before having division games upcoming. Cards are traveling west-east but get the "extra hour" Sunday. Maybe we get lucky and only need 14-17 after 1H. OVER 46 it is.
Packers -2.5 (-115) L - It always concerns me when I am extremely confident in a pick AND the public is too. I'm seeing now that 75% of wagers on GB. It usually makes me stay away or really reconsider....but not here. Denver is all about defense and while Peyton is a wise old QB he's not mobile and arm has deteriorated as we all know. They have no real running game and have depended on pick 6s to win a few games. But, this time its Aaron Rodgers off a bye and a formidable, and quick, GB defense. Both teams are tied for 3rd in takeaway/giveaway margin...however GB has only turned the ball over 4 times while Broncos/Peyton have thrown 11 interceptions to GB's 2 (I think both were in same game as I recall). Arguably the best/2nd best QB in all of football giving only 2.5 points. Count me in with Tom, Dick & Harry. Post Script: Excellent write-up in CDS' thread on this game. And, I do not think this line of -2.5 will be there at game time fwiw
Current Leans & Only Leans: Under 51 Thursday, Under 39.5 Niners/Rams, Lions +4, Raiders +1.5, Boys +6 & Packers -3.......i took under TNF but it won't count b/c did not post. I have decided to pass on Lions. Looking at Bengals/Steelers Under 48 and Chargers/Ravens Over 50 and Ravens -3. Possible Tampa but need line to go above 7.
Also lean Vikes, but they have not won @ Bears since 2007 as I recall.
ADDS:
Lions TT OVER 20.5 L
Bucs/Falcons Over 24 2H (-120) W
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