BONES WK#14

[bones]

WEEK #13: 3-5 (worst week of season & poor 2 weeks back-to-back )

SEASON: 42-35-4 (9-12 last 2 weeks)


WEEK #14:

D.C.SKINS Pick -110: WINNER Skins won @ home 27-20 in week #6. While the game is in Philly Sunday, I do not see an 8 point difference between week #6 and #14. Skins playing better now & Eagles worse than week #6. I guess @ PICK the theory is Skins been on a slide in last 2 games and will choke @ Eagles. Whatever. I'll take Skins @ pick every time under these circumstances and already have.

VIKES -3.5 -105:WINNER Seems simple except for the anemic offense of Vikes. " Will Jags be able to score a TD against Vikes?" is what I keep thinking. I'll take the Vikes D to cover against Bortles. May also be on Jags TT under 17.5-18 when I get the number. My score 21-13 Vikes

BEARS +8 -110:WINNER Bears have been a good covering team recently & are 5-7 ATS this year, although 1-5 away this year but their 1 ATS win coming agst Giants the Sunday before Thxgiving. This is a division game and Bears won @ home 17-14. These teams' last 4 games been decided by either 3 or 6. I'll take the over a td/xp.

These will be all my plays unless I play the leans below. :shake2:

ADD:

UNDER 26 1H N.O.@TBAY -105 WINNER

FALCONS 2H PICK'EM -120 WINNER

UNDER 47 BOYS@GMEN -110 WINNER

OVER 45 RAVENS@PATS -110 WINNER

:rosesmile: Sorry, have to be a little happy.
TEASER:

BROWNS +10.5 & OVER 38.5 CARDS@FINS LOSER (believe I am 1-2 on teasers this year)

LEANS: Ravens +7 : Titans; Jags TT Under & Vikes/Jags Under

 

[Metallica]

BOL this week Bones.

 

[bones]

Vikes -3.5

Bears +8

 

[bones]

My score on the game was 24-21 KC. So, I can't find a number on game (total, ATS, team totals) that I like enough to be enthusiastic.

Lean Chiefs -3 and under 23 1H

This should be a good game

 

[spanishshark]

GL this week Bones:shake:

 

[bones]

This is something I do every week @ home (do not post). I make a "pick" on the team & game total for every game and go over the results to see how I do...helps me see if I am doing things correctly. Last week was both my worst on posted plays and my 'home game.'

I explained about 2-3 years ago what I do to analyze NFL each week and it's too long to explain again, but one of the things I do is create my own Line & Total before I look at the Opening Lines. I then predict what I think what the final score will be before looking at Line.

Well, the wife's out of town, no college games except Army-Navy and I'm up early and bored so I am posting what my selections would be if I wagered on every game & total this week. These are NOT posted plays b/c as I do every week I end up posting only the plays I have confidence in. The reason I do not wager on most is b/c I do not have enuf 'margin of safety' or confidence in my selection. I may also have additional specific reason(s), including my own emotional bias, that keep me away. Emotional bias generally keeps me away from Texans and this year the SF Niners for example.

If I was forced to bet here is what I would wager this week based on current lines (and I explain why I'm not wagering):

Chargers@Panthers - Chargers +1 and Under 49. Not taking Chargers b/c of the West to East travel. L/W

Texans@Colts - Texans +7 -115 and Under 46.5. I do not trust Texans and Osweiler at all. W/W

Bengals@Browns - Bengals -5.5 and Over 41. Have the Bengals winning by @ least a TD, but damn the Browns have to cover sometime and as this is their "playoff game" I can see a potential win and/or cover. Really tempted to take the Over, not getting involved. In fact, I say I'd bet Bengals but want to take Browns ML @ +190 but that's not enuf risk/reward imo W/L

Steelers@Bills - Bills +3 and Over 46. I have this game as a "coin flip" on both of these numbers and my predicted score was 24-21 but damn the Bills can score so if I wagered I'd go over. Zero confidence on this game L/W

Cards@Fins - Cards ML and Over 43.5. I really have zero idea what teams will show up and absolutely ZERO confidence L/W

Bears@Lions - Bears +8 [ i did make this a bet] and Over 43.5 W/L

Vikes@Jags - Vikes -3 [ I have Vikes @ -3.5 ] and Under 40 -115 [ it's a lean and I may take this, have not so far] W/L

Saints@Bucs - Saints+2.5 and Under 51. My numbers were +2 and 50. This is division game, Saints can win outright but I also think Bucs are a good team in play-off fight and staying away. I like J Winston and want him to win this.. so emotion getting in way too L/W

Skins@Eagles - Skins -2.5 and Over 47. [ I took Skins at Pick right when line came out ]. My predicted final score is 27-21 but we could see anything here. I am extremely confident in Skins and it worries me W/W

Jets@Niners - I just skipped this game. No interest in even thinking about it after last Jets performance and I admit that I dislike Kaepernick so much that I cannot be objective.

Seahawks@Packers - Packers +3 and Over 44.5. I think Packers actually are a "not good team"...and Rodgers could play well and the team would still lose. Pete is the better coach. Staying away, but already interested in 2H wager and will be on look-out W/W

Falcons@Rams - Falcons -6 and Over 45. Falcons on grass - I do not like. Fisher can get his team up occasionally and this is time of year Falcons screws up. I do like Falcon's kicker, Bryant, to help cover. Recency bias on Falcons loss against KC also has me off them going west this week. Gun to head, Falcons win 31-17, but if I had to make a wager I also might go under b/c I could see Falcons getting to red zone and not getting TDs. Just no confidence in any of my analysis W/W

Boys@Giants - Giants +3.5 and Under 47. I think Boys win game around 24-20 but would take the 3.5 for Giants @ home. I also think JPP being out is bad for Giants. Hell, as I write this I am starting to lean more to the Under....weather is also predicted to be bad @ game time which might play a factor. I am biased for Boys too and want to enjoy game. May get involved in 2H

Ravens@Pats - Ravens +7 and Over 44.5. I do not like forcing a bet on MNF and always caution myself on this...but at last minute I invariably make a small wager or one at halftime. Considering a ML wager on Ravens as a suicide wager. Belichick is best coach in NFL history hands down imo and hard to go agst him, ever

I do not have a Broncos@Titans line...but lean Titans at under -3 but also depending on ML might be a Broncos bet? Hell, writing this has me off my lean on Titans

Again, just posting for fun...but if anybody has thoughts I'd like to hear....I can be talked into a wager:doink:

7-6 in the a.m.on games I did not wager...actually confirms for me that I am doing right thing and seeing things decently in that I was right not to wager

5-1 in the pm games I did not wager

12-7 on non-wagers going into SNF & MNF

13-7 on non-wagers after SNF ( I ended up making the Under a bet)

13-7-1 on non-wagers after MNF ( ended up making the Over MNF a bet)

 

[Tito]

bol bones, i like the Bears too

 

[ScopeY]

Bol on the week bones

 

[CHSGTMD]

thanks for the added post and info
on Washington with you, maybe Minn, likely opp on Bears
good luck with your plays

 

[HUNT]

Gl today bones

 

[bones]

Teaser: Browns +10.5 & over 38.5 in cards@fins

 

[bones]

Under 26 1H NO@TBay

 

[spanishshark]

Good call on Skins, Bones :cheers3:

 

[KJ]

Nice way to start the day bones :beer4:

 

[bones]

Nice way to start the day bones :beer4:

Thanks KJ...I went up 10.5 units today, took Vikes 2H & Over in Bears/Lions 2H...could not post b/c my was sitting in my car. I hope you are doing well..I think you are in College if I recall correctly

 

[bones]

Good call on Skins, Bones :cheers3:

Really was kinda lucky Shark, bad beat for you. The long snapper injury to Philly hurt

 

[bones]

Atl falcons 2h pick em

 

[bones]

Under 47 boys@gmen

 

[bones]

OVER 45 MNF & leaning Ravens, but don't like the +6 as much...still may be a play

6-0 yesterday;

lost a teaser

 

[Metallica]

BOL tonight Bones.

 

[bones]

:moneyeyes::breakdance:Thanks Metal finished up a 7-0 week #14

0-1 teaser

 

[Tito]

:money:


damn, nice work bones! :cheers3: