bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
6-4 week 16.
87-61-1 for season.
Will be watching bowl games and relaxing rest of the week. So, wanted to go ahead and post the selections now:
Packers -3.
Who is going to win this game? To the extent its possible to be certain, its safe to say that GB wins. Have to give them credit for being consistent and playing well right now. They are the better team and have beat all their division opponents this year ( Lions by 4 & 7; Bears by 13 & 8; Vikings by 9 & ?). When the Packers win, as they usually do, margins have
been: 48,8,7,9,4,14,9,10,18,1 & 13. They beat Vikings week #13 by a score of 23-14 when the Pack was arguably in the midst of the most important part of their schedule; 4 division games in 5 weeks. In that game, AP gained 210 yards, yet Packers gained 152 yards on the ground while getting 280 in the air to the Vikes' 120. So, its at least safe to say that conceding the possibility that AP has a great day such a performance does not by necessity equate to a Viking victory.
Important distinctions this week include the return of Clay Matthews and the strong motivation to obtain #2 seed in NFC. Also, Pack D is ranked 10th in yds per game and 7th in points allowed at just under 20 per game, which is close to the average points of 22 that Vikes score in either wins or losses. While capping is not a math quiz, it just seems that the numbers here match with the 'eyes' and the situation. I capped the game @ GB -12 on a neutral field. Giving the Vikes 3 for home field it seems to me that they still are not getting the points needed this Sunday. Maybe Vikes are getting too much credit for convincing victory over a dead flat,and falling,Texans? Maybe the Vikes are getting additional credit for their "situation" which also requires a win for a wild card? Or, maybe I am not giving the Vikes enough credit? We shall see.
Finally, I went back and checked last 5 years during week 17 and GB has won each by margins of 4,7,26,10 & 21. Combine the evidence that GB doesnt "tank/let-down" week 17 games, with the fact they are on an upswing here at end of season, the return of Matthews and the motivation for #2 seed, this makes the Pack a strong play at -3. One problem, -3 is currently -125 so its hard to pull trigger. Still, I make them a play @ up to -5.5 and probably up to 6. One thing is certain, after this long write-up I will have egg on face if Vikes win game.
Saints -4.5.
I grabbed the -4.5. Saints going to finish strong @ home and go out on positive note after a disappointing year.
OVER 40.5 Jets/Bills.
I think this may be a sloppy game by 2 teams that have played awfully in last month and their individual sloppiness will lead to turnovers, short fields and trash points and a blow-out by either team. Or, CJ Spiller and Bills use this opportunity to score some points and win with team score in the 30s. Last 4 games btw these teams have totals of 76,52,38 & 45
Cardinals +17, buy the .5
Just think their D keeps it closer than this. SF is all banged up. This may be a 'square play', hence name of my thread. I am what I am.
Three team 10 pt teaser: NE Pats pick 'em/Boys&Skins OVER 39.5/Seahawks -.5 (dont usually do this, but it looks good to me)
I usually come back with a few more selections, dont know that I will this week.
Best of luck and I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas and good holiday season and here's to a great 2013 for you and your family.
rayer
87-61-1 for season.
Will be watching bowl games and relaxing rest of the week. So, wanted to go ahead and post the selections now:
Packers -3.
Who is going to win this game? To the extent its possible to be certain, its safe to say that GB wins. Have to give them credit for being consistent and playing well right now. They are the better team and have beat all their division opponents this year ( Lions by 4 & 7; Bears by 13 & 8; Vikings by 9 & ?). When the Packers win, as they usually do, margins have
been: 48,8,7,9,4,14,9,10,18,1 & 13. They beat Vikings week #13 by a score of 23-14 when the Pack was arguably in the midst of the most important part of their schedule; 4 division games in 5 weeks. In that game, AP gained 210 yards, yet Packers gained 152 yards on the ground while getting 280 in the air to the Vikes' 120. So, its at least safe to say that conceding the possibility that AP has a great day such a performance does not by necessity equate to a Viking victory.
Important distinctions this week include the return of Clay Matthews and the strong motivation to obtain #2 seed in NFC. Also, Pack D is ranked 10th in yds per game and 7th in points allowed at just under 20 per game, which is close to the average points of 22 that Vikes score in either wins or losses. While capping is not a math quiz, it just seems that the numbers here match with the 'eyes' and the situation. I capped the game @ GB -12 on a neutral field. Giving the Vikes 3 for home field it seems to me that they still are not getting the points needed this Sunday. Maybe Vikes are getting too much credit for convincing victory over a dead flat,and falling,Texans? Maybe the Vikes are getting additional credit for their "situation" which also requires a win for a wild card? Or, maybe I am not giving the Vikes enough credit? We shall see.
Finally, I went back and checked last 5 years during week 17 and GB has won each by margins of 4,7,26,10 & 21. Combine the evidence that GB doesnt "tank/let-down" week 17 games, with the fact they are on an upswing here at end of season, the return of Matthews and the motivation for #2 seed, this makes the Pack a strong play at -3. One problem, -3 is currently -125 so its hard to pull trigger. Still, I make them a play @ up to -5.5 and probably up to 6. One thing is certain, after this long write-up I will have egg on face if Vikes win game.
Saints -4.5.
I grabbed the -4.5. Saints going to finish strong @ home and go out on positive note after a disappointing year.
OVER 40.5 Jets/Bills.
I think this may be a sloppy game by 2 teams that have played awfully in last month and their individual sloppiness will lead to turnovers, short fields and trash points and a blow-out by either team. Or, CJ Spiller and Bills use this opportunity to score some points and win with team score in the 30s. Last 4 games btw these teams have totals of 76,52,38 & 45
Cardinals +17, buy the .5
Just think their D keeps it closer than this. SF is all banged up. This may be a 'square play', hence name of my thread. I am what I am.
Three team 10 pt teaser: NE Pats pick 'em/Boys&Skins OVER 39.5/Seahawks -.5 (dont usually do this, but it looks good to me)
I usually come back with a few more selections, dont know that I will this week.
Best of luck and I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas and good holiday season and here's to a great 2013 for you and your family.
rayer
