Just started looking @ games tonite and will post my early 'leans' and welcome thoughts and "are you nuts?" comments.
Week #6: 7-3
Week #7: 7-9
Week #8: 7-7-1
Week #9: 7-3
Week #10: 7-3 (site down)
Week #11: 5-1 (site down)
Week #12: 14-8
Overall: 54-34-1
Leans:
Texans -4.5 (now -6). I grabbed the 4.5 for 1st time this Texan took the Texans all year. I may buy it back b/c it was my gut lean, altho probably stick with it. Don't know about the -6 altho I do see a score of something in 27-17 range........... Sticking With It
UNDER 47 -see above..........NOPE
9ers -7..................Like it even more
Jets -4.5 and Under 36.5 ................ NOPE
Chiefs +3......................Sticking With It
Jags +5.5/6..................... NOPE
Pats -7.5.......................... NOPE
Bucs/Broncos OVER 50.5............. NOPE
Gmen -2.5.................. NOPE ( but will come back to it Monday, but not now)
Bengals/Chargers Over 46............NOPE
Thanks and GL everyone :tiphat:
Well, you can throw away most of my 'leans'. I may still wager on a few, but certainly don't feel comfortable about making them a 'pick' for the week e.g. after looking at Cards/Jets can't say that Jets should be giving 4.5 and Cards D and turnovers may determine game; still 'lean' the Jags, but Buffalo is @ home and maybe Fitzpatrick has a game where he is able to throw on Jags and win by the 6? I also still 'lean' Patriots, but we know that home teams in NFL getting 7 or more have something like a 65% win ATS. Since I am taking 49ers -7 and Texans -4.5 (line now -6), I honestly dont want to push myself against the statistics that much. So, I list above a "Nope" for those no longer my selection and "Stick With It" for the 3 that remain.
After looking at the weekend (which was harder for me than most) I have a limited selection and here they are:
SF 49ers -7 .......I actually love this selection and it is obviously one that goes against the 'rule' where abt 65% of time home dogs of 7 or more cover ATS. I see Niners just kicking the hell out of Rams by 14 or more. This is also a game where Kaepernick's arm/mobility will give SF a greater margin of victory. I generally don't rate my picks, but this week is different. Believe in this strongly. [be back Sunday night to eat crow if necessary, but its unlikely]
Texans -4.5......This is not available any longer, but I am happy to have this one. Texans can clinch a play-off spot and will do so against their division foe and certainly want to do it now, as opposed to traveling to New England next week. I still 'lean' Texans @ -6, if I wagered today, i would buy the hook and take them @ -5.5. Texans beat Titans 38-14 in week 4 and while I dont think it will be same this week, i do think Texans will cover my 4.5 and should cover 5.5. It will be my 1st wager on Texans all year.
K.C. +3..... I know I must be insane, but this is how I see it. KC will run on Panthers and play tough defense. Realistically, it is their last chance for a home victory this year. KC has not seemed to quit and I think they could even pull this one out with a W. I have a 21-20 score either way.
Cincinatti -1.5 ........we all know the reasons.
That's it for me and I may well let almost the the entire NFL weekend depend primarily on S.F.
P.S. Started out 0-3 on Thursday night....I could make excuses and it doesnt matter...just let me have this: My pre-game notes read "don't trust the over and don't bet the Saints." Seriously, i let other factors intefere with my decisions. Still 0-3 so far this week and I guess I could be on a 'cold'.
Good Luck All....and remember, I did not call this thread "Sqaure Picks" for nothing.
rayer
