Boise State vs. Hawaii NCAAF Week 12 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Boise State Broncos vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Saturday, November 21, 2020 at 10 p.m. ET (CBSSN) at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu
Boise State’s COVID Situation
Boise State is in a uniquely bad spot because COVID is running rampantly through its ranks.
Most notably, the Bronco defensive line is decimated especially in the interior where additional injuries ensure a lack of quality also in the starting lineup and a lack of depth.
Right now, one nose tackle is listed as ‘questionable’ for Saturday. Two others plus a defensive end are out for the season.
Besides affecting personnel, the Broncos’ COVID situation is also problematic because they are forced to leave later than they would like to.
Under normal conditions, the Broncos want to leave on Thursday in order to fly to Hawaii for a game on Saturday.
Leaving on Thursday is important because there’s a rule that an individual’s body needs one day to adjust for every hour of time difference.
So Boise State wants to leave three days in advance because the time difference between Boise and Honolulu is three hours.
But, due to COVID, Boise State won’t get to leave for Hawaii until Friday. This delay will prove deleterious to the players’ physical condition and to their sharpness.
Boise State Offense vs. Hawaii Defense
Teams want to beat and cover the spread against Hawaii by running the ball successfully. Hence, the Rainbow Warriors face the 11th-lowest pass play percentage nationally.
In Hawaii’s one cover this season, the Rainbow Warriors held their opponent to 120 yards rushing.
Conversely, each opponent accrued at least 200 rushing yards when it covered the spread against Hawaii.
I expect Boise State to fail to to approach 200 yards rushing against Hawaii.
Again, injuries prove to be crucial. The Broncos are forced to rely on Andrew Van Buren as their feature running back. But in 48 carries, he’s only averaging 3.4 YPA. His longest run of the season is 17 yards.
When a team is strongly favored — as Boise State is — you want to have assurance that it can put up plenty of points in a hurry, so as to score enough for the cover. But this assurance is absent with Van Buren carrying the ball.
I get that the significance of running backs tends to be overrated. But it’s also not just Van Buren’s fault. Boise State ranks 82nd nationally in average YPC because its entire ground game is weak.
This weakness is magnified, now, with lesser talent in the backfield. So the Broncos won’t exploit Hawaii’s defensive weakness.
Hawaii Offense vs. Boise State Defense
Hawaii is going to be able to run the ball more against Boise State’s depleted defensive line.
The Rainbow Warriors benefit from a veteran offensive line and a returning starting running back in Miles Reed who’s averaging 4.8 YPC this season.
With Reed and with Hawaii’s greater success on defense, quarterback Chevan Cordeiro won’t have to do too much.
Cordeiro is struggling to be accurate against stronger pass defenses, which is why he completed less than half of his passes against San Diego State, but also against Wyoming.
Like San Diego State, Boise State ranks top-15 in opposing passing yards allowed per game.
Cordeiro is also struggling to stay on his feet. While he may escape the pocket for modest running gains, he also regularly takes a lot of sacks.
The entire Hawaii passing game misses wide receivers who accounted for over 3,000 yards last year. While there is some returning talent at the position, Cordeiro is hardly making use of them, which his why his yardage total is so low against teams not named New Mexico.
In the secondary, Boise State is led by cornerback Avery Williams, who was an All-Mountain West first-teamer last season.
So even if the depletion of the Broncos’ defensive line reduces its ability to apply pressure on Cordeiro, the Broncos enjoy a strong edge with their cornerbacks, who will force Cordeiro to be more accurate than he can be.
The Verdict
Boise State lacks the weapons offensively to exploit Hawaii’s weakness on defense.
But the Rainbow Warrior offense will struggle to move the ball downfield against Boise State’s high-ranked secondary.
While both teams struggle to score, I also think that the underdog here is a good play. Oddsmakers do not account for the COVID-related issues that will help prevent the Broncos from covering the spread.
Best Bet: Rainbow Warriors +14.5 at -108 with Heritage & Under 60 at -110 with BetOnline
Boise State Broncos vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Saturday, November 21, 2020 at 10 p.m. ET (CBSSN) at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu
Boise State’s COVID Situation
Boise State is in a uniquely bad spot because COVID is running rampantly through its ranks.
Most notably, the Bronco defensive line is decimated especially in the interior where additional injuries ensure a lack of quality also in the starting lineup and a lack of depth.
Right now, one nose tackle is listed as ‘questionable’ for Saturday. Two others plus a defensive end are out for the season.
Besides affecting personnel, the Broncos’ COVID situation is also problematic because they are forced to leave later than they would like to.
Under normal conditions, the Broncos want to leave on Thursday in order to fly to Hawaii for a game on Saturday.
Leaving on Thursday is important because there’s a rule that an individual’s body needs one day to adjust for every hour of time difference.
So Boise State wants to leave three days in advance because the time difference between Boise and Honolulu is three hours.
But, due to COVID, Boise State won’t get to leave for Hawaii until Friday. This delay will prove deleterious to the players’ physical condition and to their sharpness.
Boise State Offense vs. Hawaii Defense
Teams want to beat and cover the spread against Hawaii by running the ball successfully. Hence, the Rainbow Warriors face the 11th-lowest pass play percentage nationally.
In Hawaii’s one cover this season, the Rainbow Warriors held their opponent to 120 yards rushing.
Conversely, each opponent accrued at least 200 rushing yards when it covered the spread against Hawaii.
I expect Boise State to fail to to approach 200 yards rushing against Hawaii.
Again, injuries prove to be crucial. The Broncos are forced to rely on Andrew Van Buren as their feature running back. But in 48 carries, he’s only averaging 3.4 YPA. His longest run of the season is 17 yards.
When a team is strongly favored — as Boise State is — you want to have assurance that it can put up plenty of points in a hurry, so as to score enough for the cover. But this assurance is absent with Van Buren carrying the ball.
I get that the significance of running backs tends to be overrated. But it’s also not just Van Buren’s fault. Boise State ranks 82nd nationally in average YPC because its entire ground game is weak.
This weakness is magnified, now, with lesser talent in the backfield. So the Broncos won’t exploit Hawaii’s defensive weakness.
Hawaii Offense vs. Boise State Defense
Hawaii is going to be able to run the ball more against Boise State’s depleted defensive line.
The Rainbow Warriors benefit from a veteran offensive line and a returning starting running back in Miles Reed who’s averaging 4.8 YPC this season.
With Reed and with Hawaii’s greater success on defense, quarterback Chevan Cordeiro won’t have to do too much.
Cordeiro is struggling to be accurate against stronger pass defenses, which is why he completed less than half of his passes against San Diego State, but also against Wyoming.
Like San Diego State, Boise State ranks top-15 in opposing passing yards allowed per game.
Cordeiro is also struggling to stay on his feet. While he may escape the pocket for modest running gains, he also regularly takes a lot of sacks.
The entire Hawaii passing game misses wide receivers who accounted for over 3,000 yards last year. While there is some returning talent at the position, Cordeiro is hardly making use of them, which his why his yardage total is so low against teams not named New Mexico.
In the secondary, Boise State is led by cornerback Avery Williams, who was an All-Mountain West first-teamer last season.
So even if the depletion of the Broncos’ defensive line reduces its ability to apply pressure on Cordeiro, the Broncos enjoy a strong edge with their cornerbacks, who will force Cordeiro to be more accurate than he can be.
The Verdict
Boise State lacks the weapons offensively to exploit Hawaii’s weakness on defense.
But the Rainbow Warrior offense will struggle to move the ball downfield against Boise State’s high-ranked secondary.
While both teams struggle to score, I also think that the underdog here is a good play. Oddsmakers do not account for the COVID-related issues that will help prevent the Broncos from covering the spread.
Best Bet: Rainbow Warriors +14.5 at -108 with Heritage & Under 60 at -110 with BetOnline
