BNP d'Italia - Rome

P-Unit

P-Unit

Beacon of Calmness
Some fishy line movement in the last match of the day between Dolgopolov and Tsonga. Tsonga opened as a fave at -135 and quickly moved to -150 late yesterday. He was down to -120 this morning and now Dolgo is a fave at -125. Dolgo is 3-2 lifetime H2H and their only matchup on clay was won by Dolgo.

Barring any more strange movement I'll be on Dolgo for a fairly decent-sized wager. Match scheduled to start at 3 PM EST.
 
Line looked fishy in Lopez match at pickem. Won that. Lost parlay of Dimitrov/Busta.

GL with Dolgo. The earlier Frenchman played hard verse Dimitrov.
 
Up 4-3 serving in the tiebreak and he loses both serves. pretty much how the whole match went. He outplayed Tsonga in every statistical category in the 2nd set and still lost. That doesn't happen very often but tells me Tsonga didn't play well at all and, despite that, still won.
 
Back in the saddle for tomorrow.

Cilic -125 large
McHale -140 medium
Bencic -135 small (steam move and fishy line)

These are the overnight/early morning plays. I'll have one or two mid morning tomorrow. I would say that Seppi might be worth a look. he's -115 now but steam in his favor. Robredo probably worth a look at 9:30 AM EST but I'm going to wait to see how the line moves overnight. Opened at -180. I wanted to play Cibulkova but not making a wager since she's playing Giorgi (from Italy). Just a hunch that Cibu could have her hands full and there are better opportunities on the card tbh.
 
:( I have made myself not look at any lines until this weekend. I just don't have time right now from this move and new job by French Open I'm all ready
 
Working on the card for tomorrow. Like a few dogs.

Anderson +245 small
Lepchenko +150 small
Murray -270 medium
Muguruza Blanco -170 large

Also considering Giorgi small and Kuznetova med/large. Youzhny and Rosol leans on the mens side both medium.

small is usually about 1 unit, medium is 2-3 units, large is 4-8 units
 
This was on Feds match point. Broke his next serve and then held his for the match. Crazy for Chardy

[video=youtube;ZrM-agW7is4]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZrM-agW7is4[/video]
 
yep, very frustrating to make a big wager on someone who was not nearly 100%. That's the hardest part about tennis IMO - lack of info on all the players.

gonna take it easy tomorrow. Small plays on Dodig and Raonic. Looking at Dimotrov and Jankovic as well.
 
I'm on youzhny/nadal over 18.5 (-120) tomorrow, this guys actually playing decent tennis on clay right now. think he can hang for a bit. just going to shop the line and go with the best price
 
P-Unit said:
yep, very frustrating to make a big wager on someone who was not nearly 100%. That's the hardest part about tennis IMO - lack of info on all the players.

gonna take it easy tomorrow. Small plays on Dodig and Raonic. Looking at Dimotrov and Jankovic as well.
Click to expand...


It's more about finding out how motivated a player is than knowing what injuries he/she has. It's very difficult to bet this tourney with the French coming up so soon
 
Berdych for a medium play. Fading myself lol.

Dodig sucks. This tournament has been incredibly difficult to cap. Lots of players out there with very little emition. not sure I will play anything else until the French Open.
 
nbafan88 said:
It's more about finding out how motivated a player is than knowing what injuries he/she has. It's very difficult to bet this tourney with the French coming up so soon
Click to expand...

You will never be able to fully grasp a player's motivation, so it's pointless to try. Hindsight is always 20/20 in that regard, so you need to focus on what you can control, and injuries are more easy to get info on than motivation.
 
P-Unit said:
Berdych for a medium play. Fading myself lol.

Dodig sucks. This tournament has been incredibly difficult to cap. Lots of players out there with very little emition. not sure I will play anything else until the French Open.
Click to expand...

that wraps up the tournament for me. I can't even win fading myself lol.
 
Its not just you P. Hang in there. Wawa lost 2nd tournament in row after owning 1st set. I agree with NBA in regard to motivation in regard to proximity to major tournaments for rest and prep. waiting until french? you know where everybody motivation is then. . .
 
I disagree with the motivation. THis isn't an ATP 250 event. This a 1000. All the players are motivated for this.

Nadal/Djokovic/Raonic/Dimitrov parlay pays +208. Yes Please
 
I missed the Milos match but I am going to try and catch a replay at some point today. Made a late night bet on Raonic +1.5 sets (+169). Was too drunk to stay up and watch that one but glad to see that he really pushed Djokovic.

Gearing up for the French...should be a great finish to this Rome tournament tomorrow. I think next week holds a lot of value with the 250 point tournaments taking place right before Roland Garros. Should see some heavy favorites losing out early to get the additional rest
 
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