Blues Superbowl thread.

bluemyboy

bluemyboy

CTG Player
Posted earlier in the week at other forums:


Alright well seven points seems like a ton as far as I am concerned. This is the biggest game of the season..... AFC always gets the benefit of the doubt. I really like the Bears here getting 7 points. I would play them probably anywhere up to 3...... lucky for me I dont have to..... I'll take the 7 right now. Also leaning towards the under..... but I got 2 weeks to wait on that line.

Chicago Bears +7

adding:


I think this is the Bears defense is for real....no bigger place to showcase then on the big stage. I also like the fact that the Bears offense will probably run it alot in this game as well, both to help out Rex and limit Peytons big play oppertunities. I guess the thing that I cant stomach is that there has probably been at most 15 games this season where the spread was set higher then this one, and this is the biggest game of the season for the Bears Defense. Gimmie the under.

Chi/Indy under 49

something brought up at another forum...
Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by journeyman

In the last 19 years, the team that won the Super Bowl was in the top 5 in turnover ratio 18 of those years.
18/19 times!



</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Bears are 4th and the colts are tied for 6th. not a huge discrepency, but give me 7 points and I'll take it. At the very least it is something to store away for the future.

also try and add more to this over the next week and a half.

current (will update, these were yesterdays) percentages and lines for anyone that wants them from sportsinights.com:


ATS: Chicago 55%
ML: Chicago 82%
Parlay: Indy 57%
Total: Over 64%
Pins line: -6.5 -109............. 48.5 under -110
SIA line: -7 -105................49 under -110
best lines I see:
betus: -7 +100, MB: -6.5 -105...... sportsbook: +7 -110, MB : +6.5 +103
bodog/SIA U 49 -110..........WSEX O 48 -110





Plays:
Bears +7
Under 49


I posted this Monday AM I beleive when the line was still 7 with low vig. 49 and 7 are still availible numbers if you have accounts at "dog" books....SIA, bodog (if they havent changed lines), abcisland, possibly sportsbook for the +7. But most now have +7 -115. I think the line is a couple points off, however I still feel a lot more comfortable with a better line. It would surprise me if this line ever saw any reduced vig on +7. However, 49 is still availible at some of these shops and should hover at 49 for a day or so, before heading back down. I think that Sunday Morn may show the best line for the under, but with 49 being a good key number I took my chances and played the under 49 while I could. May toss in some props when I have some sharper lines to compare, we'll see.
 
current (will update, these were yesterdays) percentages and lines for anyone that wants them from sportsinights.com:


ATS: Chicago 55%
ML: Chicago 82%
Parlay: Indy 57%
Total: Over 64%
Pins line: -6.5 -109............. 48.5 under -110
SIA line: -7 -105................49 under -110
best lines I see:
betus: -7 +100, MB: -6.5 -105...... sportsbook: +7 -110, MB : +6.5 +103
bodog/SIA U 49 -110..........WSEX O 48 -110
Click to expand...

alright here are current numbers for anyone that looks at this type of stuff: (also will include my own comments)

Action: 25519
ATS: Chicago 53%.....2% change ,probably more bets on Indy over night if not 50/50
ML: Chicago 82%....no change
Parlay: Indy 60%..... 3% change, gotta be 65% plus of all parlays last night had Indy rather then Chi
Total: Over 64%.....no change
Pins line: -6.5 -110............. 48.5 under -113 small changes discussed below
SIA line: -7 -105................49 under -110 no change


best lines I see:

play on fav: WSEX: -7 +100, MB: -6.5 -107

play on Dog: sportsbook, SIA, Bodog, Olympic, grande, sportsbet: +7 -115, MB : +6.5 +106

Play on under: bodog/SIA U 49 -110

Play on over: WSEX O 48 -110



notes: Pin continues to shade its lines both the total and side are both overjuiced and at least a half number off SIAs lines, usually means Pin is taking a stance on a game, but lots more action still to come in. Will know better how much action takes place overnight now that I am keeping track of some books total bets being place..... my estimations will be close at best. just info, but will try and update a couple times before the game.
 
bluemyboy said:
alright here are current numbers for anyone that looks at this type of stuff: (also will include my own comments)

Action: 25519
ATS: Chicago 53%.....2% change ,probably more bets on Indy over night if not 50/50
ML: Chicago 82%....no change
Parlay: Indy 60%..... 3% change, gotta be 65% plus of all parlays last night had Indy rather then Chi
Total: Over 64%.....no change
Pins line: -6.5 -110............. 48.5 under -113 small changes discussed below
SIA line: -7 -105................49 under -110 no change


best lines I see:

play on fav: WSEX: -7 +100, MB: -6.5 -107

play on Dog: sportsbook, SIA, Bodog, Olympic, grande, sportsbet: +7 -115, MB : +6.5 +106

Play on under: bodog/SIA U 49 -110

Play on over: WSEX O 48 -110



notes: Pin continues to shade its lines both the total and side are both overjuiced and at least a half number off SIAs lines, usually means Pin is taking a stance on a game, but lots more action still to come in. Will know better how much action takes place overnight now that I am keeping track of some books total bets being place..... my estimations will be close at best. just info, but will try and update a couple times before the game.
Click to expand...


update:

Action: 37579.....I would say that about 30% of all action so far came in since the last update.
ATS: Chicago 52%.....1% change ,about 50-50 since last update.
ML: Chicago 82%....no change
Parlay: Indy 59%..... 1% change, still more parlay bets on Indy, but starting to even out a little more, still 55%+ incomming bets on Indy
Total: Over 65%.....1% change.... I expect this to be close to 70% by gameday.... can we see a 49.5... maybe.
Pins line: -6.5 -109............. 48.5 under -113 small change in side juice
SIA line: -7 -105................49 under -110 no change


best lines I see:

play on fav: MB: -7 +108 or -6.5 -105 (abcisland?) or MB -6.5 -107

play on Dog: sportsbook, CRIS: +7 -110, MB : +6.5 +105

Play on under: bodog/SIA U 49 -110

Play on over: Pin O 48.5 +103 or most others are at 48.5 -110...but I am sure one could get far less then that by offering it at MB.



notes: Pin finally has the best line for the over..... gotta love that if you like the under. Totals also seem to just keep going up, we may see a 49.5 this weekend. and I'll take the under again. I expect betting volume on this game to more then double by Monday AM when I will update again.
 
Great stuff Blue. Thanks.

Feeling better having Bears +7 knowing not everyones on them.
I have Colts ML too (played +160 to win SB before the NE game), so I hope for the middle.
 
Mímir said:
Great stuff Blue. Thanks.

Feeling better having Bears +7 knowing not everyones on them.
I have Colts ML too (played +160 to win SB before the NE game), so I hope for the middle.
Click to expand...

no prob

where the spread is -6.5.... I think that indy is getting hit or almost 50-50..... where it is a solid +7 I think the bears are getting hit at a little more then 50%. ultimately this weekend will be a major tell as to what we can expect as far as lines this comming week and next weekend. good luck on that middle.... I probably would of left that or scalped it, but it definately has tons of value, hope you hit it.
 
bluemyboy said:
update:

Action: 37579.....I would say that about 30% of all action so far came in since the last update.
ATS: Chicago 52%.....1% change ,about 50-50 since last update.
ML: Chicago 82%....no change
Parlay: Indy 59%..... 1% change, still more parlay bets on Indy, but starting to even out a little more, still 55%+ incomming bets on Indy
Total: Over 65%.....1% change.... I expect this to be close to 70% by gameday.... can we see a 49.5... maybe.
Pins line: -6.5 -109............. 48.5 under -113 small change in side juice
SIA line: -7 -105................49 under -110 no change


best lines I see:

play on fav: MB: -7 +108 or -6.5 -105 (abcisland?) or MB -6.5 -107

play on Dog: sportsbook, CRIS: +7 -110, MB : +6.5 +105

Play on under: bodog/SIA U 49 -110

Play on over: Pin O 48.5 +103 or most others are at 48.5 -110...but I am sure one could get far less then that by offering it at MB.



notes: Pin finally has the best line for the over..... gotta love that if you like the under. Totals also seem to just keep going up, we may see a 49.5 this weekend. and I'll take the under again. I expect betting volume on this game to more then double by Monday AM when I will update again.
Click to expand...


update:

(I will be using percents below based on how many bets came in since the last update(friday). The number of bets is not the total number of bets placed, but rather the total number of bets placed, by I believe 4-5 sportsbooks. Thus when I convert it into a percentage, I can use it as a sample and spread it over the market number. the numbers in bold are my best guess at incomming action over the weekend.

Action: 52,051.....a little less then 30% of total action so far came in over the weekend, expect it will die down a little early in the week, and then come friday night and saturday big money will start comming in
ATS: Indianapolis 52%.....4% change , However since this change happened with less action then we had before the actual numbers over the weekend are right around 60% action on Indy over the weekend.
ML: Chicago 73%....9% change, however like above this dramatic reduction would put us at almost 50-50 action on the ML over the weekend
Parlay: Indy 60%..... 1% change, would venture to guess that right around 60-62% of action on parlays came in on Indy.
Total: Over 64%.....1% change.... declined a little over the weekend, meaning that the over probably got hit at right around 60% of total bets
Pins line: -6.5 -110............. 48.5 under -116 small change in side juice and large change in total juice
SIA line: -7 -105................48.5 under -110 half pt change on total


best lines I see:

play on fav: MB: -7 +108 or MB -6.5 -108

play on Dog: abcisland: +7 -105, MB : +6.5 +106

Play on under: MB U 48.5 -109

Play on over: Pin O 48.5 +103 or most others are at 48.5 -110...over 48 at MB is -102


notes: Well a lot of info to take it. First off if you really want to understand what I am doing above, but have no clue what it all means, feel free to just ask, I have no problem at all explaining. I have already made my bets on this game, so this is just being posted for anyone else who wants to see it. I also like to know what is happening with incomming bets in case I decide to middle or scalp.

Alright now to what happened over the weekend. Well lots of bets came in this weekend and the consensus seemed to be the colts and the over. The scalpers are parts of these incomming bets, however I believe that recreational gamblers dominated the weekend numbers as they will later in the week and definately next weekend. I thought all along that the Bears were the consensus play, but it seems that may change come closer to gametime. The superbowl will get a lot more press this week, so watch for the hype and negative exposure, becuase these will help shape what will happen later. With the influx of Indy bettors we saw the lines generally rise accross the board up to a 6.5 and some 7s. Pin shaded their juice on the under even more and it makes one wonder with alot of over bettors comming in this weekend and many more to come. I think this definately rebounds a little and by Sat or Sunday we will see just too much action on the over and books will be forced to go to 49s accross the board and maybe even some 49.5.

Well that is it, sorry to make it sooo long. These are all my oppinions and I would take them just as that. update this again probably wednesday.
 
bluemyboy said:
update:

(I will be using percents below based on how many bets came in since the last update(friday). The number of bets is not the total number of bets placed, but rather the total number of bets placed, by I believe 4-5 sportsbooks. Thus when I convert it into a percentage, I can use it as a sample and spread it over the market number. the numbers in bold are my best guess at incomming action over the weekend.

Action: 52,051.....a little less then 30% of total action so far came in over the weekend, expect it will die down a little early in the week, and then come friday night and saturday big money will start comming in
ATS: Indianapolis 52%.....4% change , However since this change happened with less action then we had before the actual numbers over the weekend are right around 60% action on Indy over the weekend.
ML: Chicago 73%....9% change, however like above this dramatic reduction would put us at almost 50-50 action on the ML over the weekend
Parlay: Indy 60%..... 1% change, would venture to guess that right around 60-62% of action on parlays came in on Indy.
Total: Over 64%.....1% change.... declined a little over the weekend, meaning that the over probably got hit at right around 60% of total bets
Pins line: -6.5 -110............. 48.5 under -116 small change in side juice and large change in total juice
SIA line: -7 -105................48.5 under -110 half pt change on total


best lines I see:

play on fav: MB: -7 +108 or MB -6.5 -108

play on Dog: abcisland: +7 -105, MB : +6.5 +106

Play on under: MB U 48.5 -109

Play on over: Pin O 48.5 +103 or most others are at 48.5 -110...over 48 at MB is -102


notes: Well a lot of info to take it. First off if you really want to understand what I am doing above, but have no clue what it all means, feel free to just ask, I have no problem at all explaining. I have already made my bets on this game, so this is just being posted for anyone else who wants to see it. I also like to know what is happening with incomming bets in case I decide to middle or scalp.

Alright now to what happened over the weekend. Well lots of bets came in this weekend and the consensus seemed to be the colts and the over. The scalpers are parts of these incomming bets, however I believe that recreational gamblers dominated the weekend numbers as they will later in the week and definately next weekend. I thought all along that the Bears were the consensus play, but it seems that may change come closer to gametime. The superbowl will get a lot more press this week, so watch for the hype and negative exposure, becuase these will help shape what will happen later. With the influx of Indy bettors we saw the lines generally rise accross the board up to a 6.5 and some 7s. Pin shaded their juice on the under even more and it makes one wonder with alot of over bettors comming in this weekend and many more to come. I think this definately rebounds a little and by Sat or Sunday we will see just too much action on the over and books will be forced to go to 49s accross the board and maybe even some 49.5.

Well that is it, sorry to make it sooo long. These are all my oppinions and I would take them just as that. update this again probably wednesday.
Click to expand...

update, I'll come back to this again tonight probably....we'll see.

Action: 86,622.....about 40% more action of the total current has come in this week, expect there to be many many more bets placed today and tomorrow.... the handle size will grow substantially by kick off tomorrow.
ATS: Indianapolis 52%.....no change.... about 50-50 action over the week.
ML: Chicago 65%....8% change, the moneyline was taking about 50-50 action still again this week. Think this is probably the middle spot for the moneyline.
Parlay: Indy 61%..... 1% change, would venture to guess that right around 60-62% of action on parlays came in on Indy.
Total: Over 54%.....10% change.... declined alot over the week, this is probably the wierdest thing I think that I have seen so far., interesting to see that there was so much under action this week. By my calculations it must have been about 60% on the under bets this week
Pins line: -6.5 -110............. 47.5 under -108 moved down a full point this week, and that does not suprise me with about 60% on the under. I think it is just gearing up for a big over push today and tomorrow. we'll see though
SIA line: -7 -105................48 under -110 half pt change on total, which we could have expected with the incomming action.


best lines I see:

play on fav: MB: -7 +108 or MB -6.5 -107

play on Dog: widely availible: +7 -110, MB : +6.5 +106

Play on under: MB U 48.5 -112, SIA U48 -110,Pin U 47.5 -108

Play on over: Pin O 47.5 -102 or most others are at 48 or 47.5 -110 or better...over 48 at MB is +102


notes:

have more later today as I expect there to be substantial action today.
 
probably last update for me.... I will probably be playing some props in this game too. will update with exactly what I am playing.

Action: 124,189....about 30% more action of the total current has come in during yesterday and this AM, I think that the number of bets is not even close to being done.... lots more today.
ATS: Indianapolis 52%.....no change.... about 50-50 action over the yesterday.
ML: Chicago 64%....1% change, the moneyline has probably been taking a little more bears action but fairly even over yesterday.
Parlay: Indy 59%..... 2% change, would venture to guess that right around 50-55% of action on parlays came in on Indy yesterday.
Total: Over 56%.....2% change.... would say yesterday over 60% of the total bets came in on the over.
Pins line: -6.5 -103............. 47.5 under -110 they have opened up the juice to make the juice on the fav the least it has really been since it opened.... right in time for the most ammount of people to see this line. Total is fully shaded again.
SIA line: -7 +100................47.5 under -110 half pt change on total, which we could have expected with the incomming action and weather predictions.


best lines I see:

play on fav: MB: -7 +113 or Pin/MB -6.5 -103

play on Dog: Oasis/WWTS/MB: +7 -115, MB : +6.5 +102

Play on under: Bodog U 48 -115, widely availible U47.5 -110

Play on over: Pin O 47.5 +100 or most others are at 47.5 -110 or better...over 48 at MB is +108

notes.... just like what pin is doing.... and still even though I idslike thenumbers now, if I was making a bet still it would be on the bears and under. I'll try and update once more as well as post all my bets for today.
 
SO far here is what I am on.



210/200 Bears +7 -105
220/200 Bears/Colts under 49 -110
100/110 Peyton Manning MVP +110
62.5/50 Dominic Rhodes under 13.5 attempts -125
21/20 Colts to Punt 1st
20/21 Robbie Gould U7.5 total pts +105
20/20 Game will be tied after first score +100
20/33 Total TD passes for Rex over 1.5 +165
10/13 Billy Joel over 1m 42s +130


will probably find more..... but this is it for now.
 
Last Post Here At Ctg!

bluemyboy said:
probably last update for me.... I will probably be playing some props in this game too. will update with exactly what I am playing.

Action: 124,189....about 30% more action of the total current has come in during yesterday and this AM, I think that the number of bets is not even close to being done.... lots more today.
ATS: Indianapolis 52%.....no change.... about 50-50 action over the yesterday.
ML: Chicago 64%....1% change, the moneyline has probably been taking a little more bears action but fairly even over yesterday.
Parlay: Indy 59%..... 2% change, would venture to guess that right around 50-55% of action on parlays came in on Indy yesterday.
Total: Over 56%.....2% change.... would say yesterday over 60% of the total bets came in on the over.
Pins line: -6.5 -103............. 47.5 under -110 they have opened up the juice to make the juice on the fav the least it has really been since it opened.... right in time for the most ammount of people to see this line. Total is fully shaded again.
SIA line: -7 +100................47.5 under -110 half pt change on total, which we could have expected with the incomming action and weather predictions.


best lines I see:

play on fav: MB: -7 +113 or Pin/MB -6.5 -103

play on Dog: Oasis/WWTS/MB: +7 -115, MB : +6.5 +102

Play on under: Bodog U 48 -115, widely availible U47.5 -110

Play on over: Pin O 47.5 +100 or most others are at 47.5 -110 or better...over 48 at MB is +108

notes.... just like what pin is doing.... and still even though I idslike thenumbers now, if I was making a bet still it would be on the bears and under. I'll try and update once more as well as post all my bets for today.
Click to expand...


Hey guys last post here at CTG. It has been fun, and my leaving the forums have been a long time comming. Still will be gambling but just not posting as it takes way too much of my time and I only have 2 qts left of school. Not even posting where I am a Mod. I'll be back around a couple weeks before preseason next year. Been a profitable last 2 years and now it is time to concentrate on school. The whole offshore situation kinda also leads me to believe that now might be a good time to step back and see what happens next. any ways, My final record here at CTG was 27-17.... See you guys next Season. Take care.

last update:

Action: 147,183....about 15% more action of the total current has come in during today.
ATS: Indianapolis 53%.....about 55% of todays action is on Colts
ML: Chicago 63%....1% change, probably about 55% on bears
Parlay: Indy 58%..... 1% change, would venture to guess that right around 50-50
Total: Over 57%.....1% change.... would say yesterday 60-65% of the total bets came in on the over today.
Pins line: -6.5 -104............. 47 under -110 small juice move on side and a half pt move on the under and still the under is shaded.
SIA line: -7 +100................47 under -110 half pt change on total, which we could have expected with the weather predictions.


best lines I see:

play on fav: 5D: -6 -110 or MB -6.5 -102

play on Dog: couple with: +7 -115, MB : +6.5 +101

Play on under: WSEX U 47.5 -110, widely availible U47 -110

Play on over: Pin O 47 +100 MB O 47.5 +111

GOOD LUCK!
 
Sorry to see you leave blue. You brought some good insights to several sites and I for one, appreciated it. Take care and do well in school and maybe we'll see you next year. :shake:
 
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