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San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 3:45 p.m. ET
Sean Manaea
Padre starter Sean Manaea's Spring Training ERA is debilitated by a single start, which was his first start on March 19.
Since then, he made three more Spring Training starts in which he allowed no more than one earned run in at least 3.2 innings.
He continued his strong form in his opening start of the regular season.
In that start, he shut out Arizona on the road over the course of seven innings.
Great Spot
Manaea has produced a strong history in San Francisco's Oracle Park.
In this venue, he has made three career starts. His ERA is 2.65.
He also matches up well with current Giant batters because he is a lefty and the Giants rank 22ndin BA against lefties.
Their BA against them is .205.
Thus, Manaea is in a great place and he enjoys a strong matchup.
Logan Webb vs. Padre Batters
Plenty of Padre batters have shown that they are reliable against San Francisco starter Logan Webb.
Trent Grisham, Jake Cronenworth, Wil Myers, and Eric Hosmer all hit at least .333 in at last seven career at-bats against Webb.
First-Half Play
While the starting pitcher matchup clearly favors San Diego, the Padre bullpen has been one of the MLB's worst as measured by stats like ERA.
We don't have to rely on the Padre bullpen, though.
I recommend investing in the Padre first-half money-line so that we can take advantage of Manaea's clear edge over Webb.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Wednesday, Apri 13, 2022 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York
Jose Berrios
I feel confident saying that Blue Jay starter Jose Berrios' ERA will improve in this game. That being said, his ERA is currently 108.00.
He was awful in his first start of the regular season as he allowed four earned runs in a third of an inning. In the process, he induced zero soft contact.
His stuff was simply not good. Last year, he generated a swinging strike rate of 9.9 percent.
In this most recent start, his opposing swinging strike rate was seven percent lower.
Opposing batters were able to be selective, reserving their strike rate for pitches they saw they could crush.
Perhaps most notably, they made contact on every swing on a pitch outside the strike zone.
This catastrophic start is not anomaly this year for Berros.
On March 23 in Philadelphia, he allowed six earned runs in 1.2 innings.
That was just a Spring Training start. But it is telling that we are seeing the same sort of thing happen.
In Spring Training, overall, his ERA was 11.25.
Berrios Vs. Yankee Batters
In addition to being unreliable to say the least, Berrios is in a bad spot.
Berrios' career ERA in Yankee Stadium is 6.43.
He has three career starts in this venue. In 14 innings, he allowed 10 earned runs.
In terms of Yankee batters, look out especially for Aaron Judge.
Judge is 5-for-10 with a double in his career against Berrios.
Gerrit Cole and Bullpen
Yankee starter Gerrit Cole's ERA isn't ludicrously high like that of Berrios, but it is awful. It is 6.75.
Cole allowed three earned runs in four innings in his first start against Boston.
The thing about Cole's first start is that, while it was bad, it doesn't really stand out.
He also had some poor starts against Boston last year because the Red Sox are a tough opponent.
During Spring Training, he made two starts and his most recent one offered a basis for optimism In that last start, he allowed one earned run in 3.1 innings in Detroit.
This is the kind of success that one expects from Cole especially early in the season where he has a career-long track record of relative success.
Last season, for example, he thrived against Toronto early in the season.
But recall that they are division rivals. The Blue Jays got to see Cole many times in this one season.
They produced their success against Cole later in the season after they had seen him multiple times.
Because this is Cole's first time this year against them, I like Cole in this matchup.
I like the Yankees for the full-game because they also boast a strong bullpen.
Theirs is one of two bullpens that are currently yielding an ERA under 1.00.
If the Yankee ML is too chalky for you, then just play them on the run-line.
Parlay Verdict
San Diego will produce a strong lead thanks to its starting pitcher advantage.
Like the Padres, the Yankees have a clear edge in starting pitching. But they will also certainly win the game because their bullpen is strong.
Best Bet: Parlay Padres First-Half ML & Yankees ML at -145 with Heritage
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 3:45 p.m. ET
Sean Manaea
Padre starter Sean Manaea's Spring Training ERA is debilitated by a single start, which was his first start on March 19.
Since then, he made three more Spring Training starts in which he allowed no more than one earned run in at least 3.2 innings.
He continued his strong form in his opening start of the regular season.
In that start, he shut out Arizona on the road over the course of seven innings.
Great Spot
Manaea has produced a strong history in San Francisco's Oracle Park.
In this venue, he has made three career starts. His ERA is 2.65.
He also matches up well with current Giant batters because he is a lefty and the Giants rank 22ndin BA against lefties.
Their BA against them is .205.
Thus, Manaea is in a great place and he enjoys a strong matchup.
Logan Webb vs. Padre Batters
Plenty of Padre batters have shown that they are reliable against San Francisco starter Logan Webb.
Trent Grisham, Jake Cronenworth, Wil Myers, and Eric Hosmer all hit at least .333 in at last seven career at-bats against Webb.
First-Half Play
While the starting pitcher matchup clearly favors San Diego, the Padre bullpen has been one of the MLB's worst as measured by stats like ERA.
We don't have to rely on the Padre bullpen, though.
I recommend investing in the Padre first-half money-line so that we can take advantage of Manaea's clear edge over Webb.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Wednesday, Apri 13, 2022 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York
Jose Berrios
I feel confident saying that Blue Jay starter Jose Berrios' ERA will improve in this game. That being said, his ERA is currently 108.00.
He was awful in his first start of the regular season as he allowed four earned runs in a third of an inning. In the process, he induced zero soft contact.
His stuff was simply not good. Last year, he generated a swinging strike rate of 9.9 percent.
In this most recent start, his opposing swinging strike rate was seven percent lower.
Opposing batters were able to be selective, reserving their strike rate for pitches they saw they could crush.
Perhaps most notably, they made contact on every swing on a pitch outside the strike zone.
This catastrophic start is not anomaly this year for Berros.
On March 23 in Philadelphia, he allowed six earned runs in 1.2 innings.
That was just a Spring Training start. But it is telling that we are seeing the same sort of thing happen.
In Spring Training, overall, his ERA was 11.25.
Berrios Vs. Yankee Batters
In addition to being unreliable to say the least, Berrios is in a bad spot.
Berrios' career ERA in Yankee Stadium is 6.43.
He has three career starts in this venue. In 14 innings, he allowed 10 earned runs.
In terms of Yankee batters, look out especially for Aaron Judge.
Judge is 5-for-10 with a double in his career against Berrios.
Gerrit Cole and Bullpen
Yankee starter Gerrit Cole's ERA isn't ludicrously high like that of Berrios, but it is awful. It is 6.75.
Cole allowed three earned runs in four innings in his first start against Boston.
The thing about Cole's first start is that, while it was bad, it doesn't really stand out.
He also had some poor starts against Boston last year because the Red Sox are a tough opponent.
During Spring Training, he made two starts and his most recent one offered a basis for optimism In that last start, he allowed one earned run in 3.1 innings in Detroit.
This is the kind of success that one expects from Cole especially early in the season where he has a career-long track record of relative success.
Last season, for example, he thrived against Toronto early in the season.
But recall that they are division rivals. The Blue Jays got to see Cole many times in this one season.
They produced their success against Cole later in the season after they had seen him multiple times.
Because this is Cole's first time this year against them, I like Cole in this matchup.
I like the Yankees for the full-game because they also boast a strong bullpen.
Theirs is one of two bullpens that are currently yielding an ERA under 1.00.
If the Yankee ML is too chalky for you, then just play them on the run-line.
Parlay Verdict
San Diego will produce a strong lead thanks to its starting pitcher advantage.
Like the Padres, the Yankees have a clear edge in starting pitching. But they will also certainly win the game because their bullpen is strong.
Best Bet: Parlay Padres First-Half ML & Yankees ML at -145 with Heritage
