Blue Jays vs. Yankees: MLB Best Bets
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Thursday, September 17, 2020 at 7:05 p.m. ET in Yankee Stadium
Chase Anderson
After being dumped by Milwaukee and landing in Toronto, Blue Jay starter Chase Anderson (0-1, 5.81 ERA) has been suffering the worst season of his professional career.
His ERA and FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) are higher than they've ever been.
Moreover, he’s allowing 2.05 home runs per game, easily more than he ever had before.
This last statistic is concerning as Anderson faces a Yankee squad today that has hit the fourth-most home runs (82) this season in 49 games played.
Anderson’s Regression
One reason why Anderson is playing so poorly is that the quality of his pitches has sunk.
He relies primarily on his fastball, cutter, curveball, and slider. These pitches combine to make up 92 percent of his pitching arsenal.
Relative to last year, his average fastball and cutter velocity have both sunk. He’s also getting much less movement out of his pitches.
Besides lower pitch quality, location is another factor. Pitching charts show that he often leaves his pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
To be clear, he does a horrible job of even finding the strike zone especially with his first pitch. His first-pitch strike percentage is down to 52.5, which is almost 10 percent lower than his career average.
In starting off behind the count, Anderson puts himself in, statistically speaking, more difficult situations.
When he falls behind, he grows more likely to rely on his fastball. But added fastball usage is not something that he wants because opponents are hitting .372 against his fastball.
Anderson vs. Yankee Batters
I dislike Anderson today because, of all the low quality that he’s exhibited this season, he’s suffering particularly poor form right now.
In each of his last two games, his ERA was over 13 and his FIP over 8.00.
He’s also allowed a combined total of four home runs in those two games.
When Anderson falls behind and begins throwing even more fastballs than usual (this pitch is his favorite one), he’ll suffer from a Yankee lineup that ranks third in slugging .580 against the fastball from righties.
In contrast to Anderson, the Yankees’ lineup shows superb form.
33 runs would be an excellent total for a team to accumulate in six games. But the Yanks have accumulated 33 runs in their past two games combined — they scored 20 on Tuesday and 13 yesterday.
Look for D.J. LeMahieu to remain hot. He’s batting a sizzling .373 to go along with a .627 slugging rate. Slugger Aaron Judge is also back in the lineup.
Masahiro Tanaka
New York starter Masahiro Tanaka (2-2, 3.16 ERA) is enjoying a streak that his counterpart Anderson could only dream of.
In each of his past five games, Tanaka has allowed two earned runs or fewer.
Unlike Anderson, Tanaka is doing a great job avoiding the middle parts of the plate.
Four of his highest strike locations by percentage are in the lowest row of the strike zone.
He’s doing a good job of placing pitches at the batter’s knees where it’s harder for a batter to make contact.
Tanaka vs Blue Jay Batters
Tanaka benefits from a positive matchup with the Jays. They rank 25th in slugging just .398 against his favorite pitches, the fastball, splitter, and slider.
Because Tanaka throws these three pitches with combined 83 percent frequency, there will be no chance for Toronto to avoid the consequences of its poor matchup.
Looking at Toronto batters, I expect Vladamir Guerrero Jr. to struggle when facing Tanaka. In his career when facing Tanaka, he’s 1-for-9 (.111) with two strikeouts.
The Verdict
New York is absolutely on fire now as it enters today’s contest with a seven-game win streak that features double-digit scoring outputs and mostly solid, easily good enough pitching.
Among other reasons because the Blue Jays don’t match up well with Tanaka, they lack the firepower to keep pace especially with the run total that Anderson will help the Yankees generate.
Best Bet: Yankees RL at -105 odds with BetOnline
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Thursday, September 17, 2020 at 7:05 p.m. ET in Yankee Stadium
Chase Anderson
After being dumped by Milwaukee and landing in Toronto, Blue Jay starter Chase Anderson (0-1, 5.81 ERA) has been suffering the worst season of his professional career.
His ERA and FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) are higher than they've ever been.
Moreover, he’s allowing 2.05 home runs per game, easily more than he ever had before.
This last statistic is concerning as Anderson faces a Yankee squad today that has hit the fourth-most home runs (82) this season in 49 games played.
Anderson’s Regression
One reason why Anderson is playing so poorly is that the quality of his pitches has sunk.
He relies primarily on his fastball, cutter, curveball, and slider. These pitches combine to make up 92 percent of his pitching arsenal.
Relative to last year, his average fastball and cutter velocity have both sunk. He’s also getting much less movement out of his pitches.
Besides lower pitch quality, location is another factor. Pitching charts show that he often leaves his pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
To be clear, he does a horrible job of even finding the strike zone especially with his first pitch. His first-pitch strike percentage is down to 52.5, which is almost 10 percent lower than his career average.
In starting off behind the count, Anderson puts himself in, statistically speaking, more difficult situations.
When he falls behind, he grows more likely to rely on his fastball. But added fastball usage is not something that he wants because opponents are hitting .372 against his fastball.
Anderson vs. Yankee Batters
I dislike Anderson today because, of all the low quality that he’s exhibited this season, he’s suffering particularly poor form right now.
In each of his last two games, his ERA was over 13 and his FIP over 8.00.
He’s also allowed a combined total of four home runs in those two games.
When Anderson falls behind and begins throwing even more fastballs than usual (this pitch is his favorite one), he’ll suffer from a Yankee lineup that ranks third in slugging .580 against the fastball from righties.
In contrast to Anderson, the Yankees’ lineup shows superb form.
33 runs would be an excellent total for a team to accumulate in six games. But the Yanks have accumulated 33 runs in their past two games combined — they scored 20 on Tuesday and 13 yesterday.
Look for D.J. LeMahieu to remain hot. He’s batting a sizzling .373 to go along with a .627 slugging rate. Slugger Aaron Judge is also back in the lineup.
Masahiro Tanaka
New York starter Masahiro Tanaka (2-2, 3.16 ERA) is enjoying a streak that his counterpart Anderson could only dream of.
In each of his past five games, Tanaka has allowed two earned runs or fewer.
Unlike Anderson, Tanaka is doing a great job avoiding the middle parts of the plate.
Four of his highest strike locations by percentage are in the lowest row of the strike zone.
He’s doing a good job of placing pitches at the batter’s knees where it’s harder for a batter to make contact.
Tanaka vs Blue Jay Batters
Tanaka benefits from a positive matchup with the Jays. They rank 25th in slugging just .398 against his favorite pitches, the fastball, splitter, and slider.
Because Tanaka throws these three pitches with combined 83 percent frequency, there will be no chance for Toronto to avoid the consequences of its poor matchup.
Looking at Toronto batters, I expect Vladamir Guerrero Jr. to struggle when facing Tanaka. In his career when facing Tanaka, he’s 1-for-9 (.111) with two strikeouts.
The Verdict
New York is absolutely on fire now as it enters today’s contest with a seven-game win streak that features double-digit scoring outputs and mostly solid, easily good enough pitching.
Among other reasons because the Blue Jays don’t match up well with Tanaka, they lack the firepower to keep pace especially with the run total that Anderson will help the Yankees generate.
Best Bet: Yankees RL at -105 odds with BetOnline
