Blue Jays vs. Orioles: MLB Picks
Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles
Monday, August 17, 2020 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards in Baltimore
Toronto Starter
Hyun Jin Ryu (1-1, 4.05 ERA) is slated to start on Monday for Toronto.
Ryu has pitched professionally, in America, since 2013 and he was a Dodger each season.
Therefore, this is the first MLB team that he’s pitching for which is not the Dodgers.
Ryu’s Struggles
So far, Ryu’s transition in Toronto is proceeding poorly.
His ERA is 1.04 higher than his career average and it’s higher than it ever was before.
In particular, he’s struggling with control. He’s walking 4.05 batters per nine inning, which is a terrible figure, especially when you consider that, last year, he only walked 1.18 batters per nine innings.
He’s also giving up over one home run per game whereas his career average is 0.89 home runs allowed per game.
A Deeper Dive
Ryu’s struggles could derive from some physical problem that hasn’t been publicized yet.
It is not uncommon for a pitcher to struggle for a long time and then for the realization to emerge that he’s been injured.
Given this possibility, it’s really helpful to look more closely into his numbers because we could find great value in fading a pitcher who is being treated by oddsmakers as though he were healthy.
One negative sign for Ryu is that the velocity of each of his pitches is down from last year.
His three main pitches are the fastball, cutter, and change-up. These three pitches make up close to 80 percent of his arsenal.
Compared to last year, his fastball is down .86 mph in velocity per pitch. His change-up is down from 90.37 mph to 89.53 mph. His cutter is down from 87.20 mph to 85.64 mph.
Of similar importance, his overall spin rate is down in RPM.
This drop is important for Ryu because he likes to throw his pitches up in the zone. Spin gives more elevated pitches the appearance of rising action, which makes their final location more difficult for the batters to track.
With less spin, Ryu becomes less deceptive.
Ryu’s biggest problem is with his fastball. Its decline in horizontal movement — in addition to that in velocity -- probably explains why it’s more hittable.
Batters are having an easier time keeping up with and tracking the movement of his fastball.
As a result, Ryu’s opponents are slugging .462 against his fastball. Last year, they only slugged .389 against it.
Ryu vs Baltimore Batters
I like Baltimore batters in this contest because they match up excellently with Ryu.
Ryu is a southpaw and the Orioles rank sixth in hitting .286 against southpaws.
Moreover, against Ryu’s three favorite pitches — the fastball, change-up, and cutter — from lefties, the O’s rank third in slugging .596.
Considering that we have a team here in Baltimore that is perpetually disrespected by oddsmakers, the O's make for a strong bet on Monday because their unusually solid match-up advantages accord them powerful betting value.
One batter to look out for is Renato Nunez. He’s hitting .313 and slugging .627.
Hanser Alberto is an even more reliable hitter in terms of BA. While he shows less power overall, he matches up superbly against Ryu as he slugs an absurd 1.091 against lefties.
Alex Cobb
Unlike Ryu, Alex Cobb (1-1, 2.75 ERA) is very much himself this year.
Cobb likes to rely on his sinker and splitter. Both pitches combine to make up 82 percent of his arsenal. He also mixes up a curveball that he can lean on in precarious situations. Opponents bat only .222 against it.
The difference between Ryu and Cobb is that, in terms of velocity, movement, and location, Cobb is living up to what you’d expect of him.
He loves to keep the ball low on the ground by placing it in the lowest quadrant of the strike zone where almost 40 percent of his strikes land.
So far this year, Cobb is inducing grounders at a 64.9 percent rate
Cobb vs Blue Jay Batters
Active Blue Jay hitters have not seen much of Cobb.
Don’t expect much from Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who is 0-for-3 with a strikeout against Cobb.
Overall, Toronto hitters match up poorly with Cobb as they rank in the bottom half in slugging against Cobb’s two favorite pitches.
The Verdict
One pitcher — Baltimore’s — is himself, while Ryu isn’t.
Ryu is unlikely to turn his season around on Monday as he matches up very poorly with the Orioles’ lineup.
Baltimore will have great betting value as its starter enjoys both the positive form and the match-up advantages that its counterpart doesn’t.
For the above reasons, I will take Baltimore first-half ML when top sportsbooks release their odds.
Look for Bovada to release theirs early. But you may want to wait for a lower-juice book like 5Dimes to release theirs.
Best Bet: Orioles First-Half ML (odds TBA)
Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles
Monday, August 17, 2020 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards in Baltimore
Toronto Starter
Hyun Jin Ryu (1-1, 4.05 ERA) is slated to start on Monday for Toronto.
Ryu has pitched professionally, in America, since 2013 and he was a Dodger each season.
Therefore, this is the first MLB team that he’s pitching for which is not the Dodgers.
Ryu’s Struggles
So far, Ryu’s transition in Toronto is proceeding poorly.
His ERA is 1.04 higher than his career average and it’s higher than it ever was before.
In particular, he’s struggling with control. He’s walking 4.05 batters per nine inning, which is a terrible figure, especially when you consider that, last year, he only walked 1.18 batters per nine innings.
He’s also giving up over one home run per game whereas his career average is 0.89 home runs allowed per game.
A Deeper Dive
Ryu’s struggles could derive from some physical problem that hasn’t been publicized yet.
It is not uncommon for a pitcher to struggle for a long time and then for the realization to emerge that he’s been injured.
Given this possibility, it’s really helpful to look more closely into his numbers because we could find great value in fading a pitcher who is being treated by oddsmakers as though he were healthy.
One negative sign for Ryu is that the velocity of each of his pitches is down from last year.
His three main pitches are the fastball, cutter, and change-up. These three pitches make up close to 80 percent of his arsenal.
Compared to last year, his fastball is down .86 mph in velocity per pitch. His change-up is down from 90.37 mph to 89.53 mph. His cutter is down from 87.20 mph to 85.64 mph.
Of similar importance, his overall spin rate is down in RPM.
This drop is important for Ryu because he likes to throw his pitches up in the zone. Spin gives more elevated pitches the appearance of rising action, which makes their final location more difficult for the batters to track.
With less spin, Ryu becomes less deceptive.
Ryu’s biggest problem is with his fastball. Its decline in horizontal movement — in addition to that in velocity -- probably explains why it’s more hittable.
Batters are having an easier time keeping up with and tracking the movement of his fastball.
As a result, Ryu’s opponents are slugging .462 against his fastball. Last year, they only slugged .389 against it.
Ryu vs Baltimore Batters
I like Baltimore batters in this contest because they match up excellently with Ryu.
Ryu is a southpaw and the Orioles rank sixth in hitting .286 against southpaws.
Moreover, against Ryu’s three favorite pitches — the fastball, change-up, and cutter — from lefties, the O’s rank third in slugging .596.
Considering that we have a team here in Baltimore that is perpetually disrespected by oddsmakers, the O's make for a strong bet on Monday because their unusually solid match-up advantages accord them powerful betting value.
One batter to look out for is Renato Nunez. He’s hitting .313 and slugging .627.
Hanser Alberto is an even more reliable hitter in terms of BA. While he shows less power overall, he matches up superbly against Ryu as he slugs an absurd 1.091 against lefties.
Alex Cobb
Unlike Ryu, Alex Cobb (1-1, 2.75 ERA) is very much himself this year.
Cobb likes to rely on his sinker and splitter. Both pitches combine to make up 82 percent of his arsenal. He also mixes up a curveball that he can lean on in precarious situations. Opponents bat only .222 against it.
The difference between Ryu and Cobb is that, in terms of velocity, movement, and location, Cobb is living up to what you’d expect of him.
He loves to keep the ball low on the ground by placing it in the lowest quadrant of the strike zone where almost 40 percent of his strikes land.
So far this year, Cobb is inducing grounders at a 64.9 percent rate
Cobb vs Blue Jay Batters
Active Blue Jay hitters have not seen much of Cobb.
Don’t expect much from Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who is 0-for-3 with a strikeout against Cobb.
Overall, Toronto hitters match up poorly with Cobb as they rank in the bottom half in slugging against Cobb’s two favorite pitches.
The Verdict
One pitcher — Baltimore’s — is himself, while Ryu isn’t.
Ryu is unlikely to turn his season around on Monday as he matches up very poorly with the Orioles’ lineup.
Baltimore will have great betting value as its starter enjoys both the positive form and the match-up advantages that its counterpart doesn’t.
For the above reasons, I will take Baltimore first-half ML when top sportsbooks release their odds.
Look for Bovada to release theirs early. But you may want to wait for a lower-juice book like 5Dimes to release theirs.
Best Bet: Orioles First-Half ML (odds TBA)
