Blue Jays Will Soar Higher Than Angels Tonight
Both the Jays and Angels have been consistent losers lately. The Jays took game one of the series and are in a good spot to take game two at 7:07 ET.
Los Angeles Angels (26-22) at Toronto Blue Jays (22-25)
MLB Pick: Toronto +132
Don’t get excited about Angels starter Tyler Skaggs' (3-3, 2.88 ERA) apparent improvement. He has been overachieving this season because he is stranding batters at an unsustainably high 83.9% rate. His biggest improvements since last year had been to allow fewer walks and homers. But in the past two games he’s allowed a combined five walks and three homers. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) in both of his past two games was over 4.40. The Jays rank in the upper half in BA with RISP, so look for them to bring runners home.
This season, Skaggs has reduced his fastball usage in order to throw more two-seam fastballs and become a more pronounced ground ball pitcher. His two-seamer is allowing a .169 opposing BA thanks to an unsustainable .200 BABIP (batting average of balls in play). The metric SLG-xSLG compares a team’s slugging percentage with a team’s expected slugging percentage. Skaggs’ opponents have massively underachieved against his two-seamer. For example, when Skaggs got the win against Texas, Texas generated a 97.2 mph average exit velocity against this pitch, helping generate a 1.064 xSLG against it because teams normally achieve high slugging numbers when they see a pitch well enough to make strong contact. However, their actual slugging percentage was .000 against the two-seamer. Because Skaggs’ major change this year is the enhanced usage of his two-seamer, he should be performing worse than last year. Skaggs doesn’t only have deeper problems with his two-seamer. In his past two games, he’s allowing hard contact over half the time.
The Jays are the most underachieving team against lefties based on SLG-xSLG. They are achieving the second-highest average exit velocity against pitches thrown by southpaws. Just like Skaggs’ numbers are due to regress, the Jays are due to improve. Furthermore, Skaggs is allowing the highest pull percentage among pitchers. This tendency matches up optimally with the Jays’ hitting preferences. Their hitters rank third in pull percentage, which is useful in their ballpark, which sees a well above average rate of extra base hits.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Every new streak starts somewhere. Tonight was a good night. <br><br>RECAP: <a href="https://t.co/HqGLSkQT3A">https://t.co/HqGLSkQT3A</a> <a href="https://t.co/ldIkQHQMBh">pic.twitter.com/ldIkQHQMBh</a></p>— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) <a href=" ">23. Mai 2018</a></blockquote>
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Toronto’s Aaron Sanchez (2-4, 4.47 ERA) is smartly reducing his two-seam fastball usage because opponents continue to slam it. Instead, he’s throwing his change-up with career-high frequency. He developed his change by separating it from his fastball. The velocity differential had been below average and the level of vertical movement was very close to that of his two-seamer. He creates more deception by throwing his two-seamer and change from similar vertical release points while dropping the latter pitch much less. His change has become his favorite whiff generator, so he throws it almost 40% of the time with two strikes. It has accounted for 73% of his strikeouts and allows a .155 opposing BA.
To compensate for his struggles last year against same-handed batters, the righty has dropped the vertical release points of his pitches in order to better disguise them. This season, right-handed opponents are batting .196 against him and he’s yielding a .90 lower FIP against them than against lefties.
He matches up well against LA’s righty-heavy lineup, which is metrically one of the least expected to continue its success against right-handed pitching. Only two LA left-handed batters are batting over .200, one of whom, Shohei Ohtani, is being figured out by pitchers. His slugging percentage is down .146 from April.
The Jays’ pen ranks eight spots higher than LA’s in terms of FIP and is fresh. So it will protect the lead and comprise the final reason why Toronto is a strong underdog choice.
Both the Jays and Angels have been consistent losers lately. The Jays took game one of the series and are in a good spot to take game two at 7:07 ET.
Los Angeles Angels (26-22) at Toronto Blue Jays (22-25)
MLB Pick: Toronto +132
Don’t get excited about Angels starter Tyler Skaggs' (3-3, 2.88 ERA) apparent improvement. He has been overachieving this season because he is stranding batters at an unsustainably high 83.9% rate. His biggest improvements since last year had been to allow fewer walks and homers. But in the past two games he’s allowed a combined five walks and three homers. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) in both of his past two games was over 4.40. The Jays rank in the upper half in BA with RISP, so look for them to bring runners home.
This season, Skaggs has reduced his fastball usage in order to throw more two-seam fastballs and become a more pronounced ground ball pitcher. His two-seamer is allowing a .169 opposing BA thanks to an unsustainable .200 BABIP (batting average of balls in play). The metric SLG-xSLG compares a team’s slugging percentage with a team’s expected slugging percentage. Skaggs’ opponents have massively underachieved against his two-seamer. For example, when Skaggs got the win against Texas, Texas generated a 97.2 mph average exit velocity against this pitch, helping generate a 1.064 xSLG against it because teams normally achieve high slugging numbers when they see a pitch well enough to make strong contact. However, their actual slugging percentage was .000 against the two-seamer. Because Skaggs’ major change this year is the enhanced usage of his two-seamer, he should be performing worse than last year. Skaggs doesn’t only have deeper problems with his two-seamer. In his past two games, he’s allowing hard contact over half the time.
The Jays are the most underachieving team against lefties based on SLG-xSLG. They are achieving the second-highest average exit velocity against pitches thrown by southpaws. Just like Skaggs’ numbers are due to regress, the Jays are due to improve. Furthermore, Skaggs is allowing the highest pull percentage among pitchers. This tendency matches up optimally with the Jays’ hitting preferences. Their hitters rank third in pull percentage, which is useful in their ballpark, which sees a well above average rate of extra base hits.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Every new streak starts somewhere. Tonight was a good night. <br><br>RECAP: <a href="https://t.co/HqGLSkQT3A">https://t.co/HqGLSkQT3A</a> <a href="https://t.co/ldIkQHQMBh">pic.twitter.com/ldIkQHQMBh</a></p>— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) <a href=" ">23. Mai 2018</a></blockquote>
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Toronto’s Aaron Sanchez (2-4, 4.47 ERA) is smartly reducing his two-seam fastball usage because opponents continue to slam it. Instead, he’s throwing his change-up with career-high frequency. He developed his change by separating it from his fastball. The velocity differential had been below average and the level of vertical movement was very close to that of his two-seamer. He creates more deception by throwing his two-seamer and change from similar vertical release points while dropping the latter pitch much less. His change has become his favorite whiff generator, so he throws it almost 40% of the time with two strikes. It has accounted for 73% of his strikeouts and allows a .155 opposing BA.
To compensate for his struggles last year against same-handed batters, the righty has dropped the vertical release points of his pitches in order to better disguise them. This season, right-handed opponents are batting .196 against him and he’s yielding a .90 lower FIP against them than against lefties.
He matches up well against LA’s righty-heavy lineup, which is metrically one of the least expected to continue its success against right-handed pitching. Only two LA left-handed batters are batting over .200, one of whom, Shohei Ohtani, is being figured out by pitchers. His slugging percentage is down .146 from April.
The Jays’ pen ranks eight spots higher than LA’s in terms of FIP and is fresh. So it will protect the lead and comprise the final reason why Toronto is a strong underdog choice.
