MLB Parlay for May 5: A Bet That Pays (+282)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 6:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland
Jose Berrios
Toronto starter Jose Berrios is coming off a good-luck start in which his 1.59 ERA masks a 4.68 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
In that start, against Houston, he was fortunate to remain so largely unscathed despite yielding hard contact at a 40-percent rate.
Before that start, Berrios had appeared to right his ship after the poor start to the season that he had been suffering.
More specifically, he thrived in two consecutive starts against a Boston lineup that has been struggling to produce runs.
Whereas he had two good games against a Red Sox squad that ranks 24thin runs per game, he'll have to deal with an objectively tougher test tonight in a Cleveland lineup that ranks fifth in runs per game.
The fact that opponents are slamming his fastball is particularly concerning because it is his favorite pitch.
He throws it with 37.5 percent frequency and opponents bat .390 and slug .561 against it.
Berrios vs. Cleveland Batters
Opponents batting from the left side of the plate do particularly hefty damage against Berrios. He is yielding a .351 BA and .622 slugging rate against those batters.
So, look out for Jose Ramirez who leads Cleveland in BA and home runs.
Steven Kwan and Andres Gimenez likewise look particularly dangerous.
But even Cleveland righties offer promise today because Berrios throws his vulnerable fastball mostly to righties.
Overall, the Guardians match up excellently against Berrios because they rank first by far in slugging .506 against Berrios' three primary pitches, the fastball, curveball, and sinker, from righties.
Cleveland's "Over" Pitcher
Cleveland starter Aaron Civale has been nothing short of a disaster this season, for which reason the "over" is a perfect 4-0 in his starts.
Civale's favorite pitch is his cutter and opponents are smashing this pitch. To be exact, it is yielding a .438 batting rate and .938 slugging rate.
Whereas Berrios' fastball too often suffers poor location, Civale's favorite pitch suffers from a strong velocity decline relative to last year.
Plenty of Civale's other options are proving to be very weak and ineffective against batters.
Hence, Civale has yielded 12 earned runs in his past two starts combined.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 6:45 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
Taijuan Walker
Met starter Taijuan Walker is doing the improbable: he's facing the same team three consecutive times to start off the season.
After tossing two innings on April 11, he lasted five innings on April 30.
In this most recent start, his 0.00 ERA masks a 3.89 FIP. He was fortunate to yield a .143 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) given the fact that he induced zero soft contact.
Philadelphia's lineup will use its unique familiarity with Walker to its advantage tonight.
Walker vs. Philly Batters
Primarily, Walker throws a fastball, slider, and split-finger.
Philly batters match up well against him because they rank third in slugging against these three pitches from righties.
Five different Philadelphia batters slug .500 or better in at least nine career at-bats against Walker.
Kyle Schwarber, for example, is 5-for-13 with an absurd five home runs against him.
Nola vs. Met Batters
I also like Met batters today they rank seventh in slugging against Nola's favorite pitches, the fastball, curveball, changeup, and sinker, from righties.
Pete Alonso, in particular, looks strong today. He is coming off two straight two-hit games. His career slugging rate against Nola is .794 in 34 at-bats.
Bouncing Back
Both lineups enjoy strong bounce-back situations.
Philadelphia has scored 5+ runs in five of six games this season following a loss in which it scored zero runs or one run.
Similarly, the Mets have scored 5+ runs in five of their last six games following a loss.
Best Bet: Parlay Blue Jays/Guardians Over 8 at +100 & Mets/Phillies Over 8 at -110 at +282 odds with BetOnline
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 6:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland
Jose Berrios
Toronto starter Jose Berrios is coming off a good-luck start in which his 1.59 ERA masks a 4.68 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
In that start, against Houston, he was fortunate to remain so largely unscathed despite yielding hard contact at a 40-percent rate.
Before that start, Berrios had appeared to right his ship after the poor start to the season that he had been suffering.
More specifically, he thrived in two consecutive starts against a Boston lineup that has been struggling to produce runs.
Whereas he had two good games against a Red Sox squad that ranks 24thin runs per game, he'll have to deal with an objectively tougher test tonight in a Cleveland lineup that ranks fifth in runs per game.
The fact that opponents are slamming his fastball is particularly concerning because it is his favorite pitch.
He throws it with 37.5 percent frequency and opponents bat .390 and slug .561 against it.
Berrios vs. Cleveland Batters
Opponents batting from the left side of the plate do particularly hefty damage against Berrios. He is yielding a .351 BA and .622 slugging rate against those batters.
So, look out for Jose Ramirez who leads Cleveland in BA and home runs.
Steven Kwan and Andres Gimenez likewise look particularly dangerous.
But even Cleveland righties offer promise today because Berrios throws his vulnerable fastball mostly to righties.
Overall, the Guardians match up excellently against Berrios because they rank first by far in slugging .506 against Berrios' three primary pitches, the fastball, curveball, and sinker, from righties.
Cleveland's "Over" Pitcher
Cleveland starter Aaron Civale has been nothing short of a disaster this season, for which reason the "over" is a perfect 4-0 in his starts.
Civale's favorite pitch is his cutter and opponents are smashing this pitch. To be exact, it is yielding a .438 batting rate and .938 slugging rate.
Whereas Berrios' fastball too often suffers poor location, Civale's favorite pitch suffers from a strong velocity decline relative to last year.
Plenty of Civale's other options are proving to be very weak and ineffective against batters.
Hence, Civale has yielded 12 earned runs in his past two starts combined.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 6:45 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
Taijuan Walker
Met starter Taijuan Walker is doing the improbable: he's facing the same team three consecutive times to start off the season.
After tossing two innings on April 11, he lasted five innings on April 30.
In this most recent start, his 0.00 ERA masks a 3.89 FIP. He was fortunate to yield a .143 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) given the fact that he induced zero soft contact.
Philadelphia's lineup will use its unique familiarity with Walker to its advantage tonight.
Walker vs. Philly Batters
Primarily, Walker throws a fastball, slider, and split-finger.
Philly batters match up well against him because they rank third in slugging against these three pitches from righties.
Five different Philadelphia batters slug .500 or better in at least nine career at-bats against Walker.
Kyle Schwarber, for example, is 5-for-13 with an absurd five home runs against him.
Nola vs. Met Batters
I also like Met batters today they rank seventh in slugging against Nola's favorite pitches, the fastball, curveball, changeup, and sinker, from righties.
Pete Alonso, in particular, looks strong today. He is coming off two straight two-hit games. His career slugging rate against Nola is .794 in 34 at-bats.
Bouncing Back
Both lineups enjoy strong bounce-back situations.
Philadelphia has scored 5+ runs in five of six games this season following a loss in which it scored zero runs or one run.
Similarly, the Mets have scored 5+ runs in five of their last six games following a loss.
Best Bet: Parlay Blue Jays/Guardians Over 8 at +100 & Mets/Phillies Over 8 at -110 at +282 odds with BetOnline
