Blue-Emu Maximum Relief 400 Preview Article

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Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 400 Preview and Pick

NASCAR Cup Series: Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 400
Saturday, April 9, 2022 at 7:30 p.m. ET (FS1) at Martinsville Speedway in Martinsville, Virginia

New Weirdness

The NASCAR season found a new way of being weird.

Previously, it was weird because all of these lesser-known drivers who hadn't won before were winning races.

Now it is weird because Denny Hamlin won after failing to finish top 10 a single time all season.

However, one weird thing that hasn't happened yet is back-to-back victories. In fact, we haven't even had any repeat winners this season.

Because it is very hard and rare for a driver to win consecutive races, we can exclude Hamlin reasonably from our list of candidates to win in Martinsville this week.

Race Info

For this Saturday's race, drivers must complete a total of 400 laps.

As has always been the case this season, there are three stages for this race.

Stage 1 terminates upon completion of the 100th lap.

Stage 2 consists in the next 100 laps.

Stage 3 requires drivers to complete 200 more laps.

By now, an entry list has been published for this race.

36 drivers/teams are listed for 40 spots.

We therefore already know, barring any unforeseen circumstances, which drivers will participate in this race.

All of the usual suspects will be there.

As for the order in which they will start the race, the starting lineup will get posted after qualifying.

On Friday, which is the day before this week's race, at 4:30 p.m. ET, a practice session will take place and it is scheduled to last 35 minutes.

At 5:05 p.m. on the same day, single vehicle, two-lap, two-round qualifying is scheduled to begin.

Track Info

You know that this race will be exciting to follow simply because of the nicknames that the track has merited over the years.

These nicknames include: "Half Mile of Mayhem," "The Paperclip," and "The Augusta National of Race Tracks."

As the first nickname suggests, this track is short. Each lap is just over a half-mile long.

So, in completing 400 laps, drivers will have accumulated 210.4 miles.

The shortness of the track contributes to the extensive amount of traffic that drivers will deal with.

Contact between cars is rather inevitable here as it requires more effort to pass other competitors.

The shape of this track helps explain the second nickname as people say that Martinsville Speedway looks like a paperclip.

It has minimal banking: the turns are banked at 12 degrees and the straightaways aren't banked at all.

Drivers I Dislike

They say it can take time for a driver to figure out how to succeed in Martinsville.

One driver still figuring things out is Kyle Larson who, in his most recent attempt at this track, finished 14th after starting in pole position.

His average finishing position here is an ugly 20.57, which is just over eight spots behind his average starting position.

He is thus repeatedly dropping back relative to the place in which he started.

My Favorite Guys

Based on his recent performances at this track, one guy who has figured out how to succeed here is Martin Truex Jr.

However, Bovada lists him at -170 in his matchup with William Byron, which is just too expensive. So, I like Truex Jr., but I don't know how I can recommend investing in him.

I do like Kyle Busch at this track and very much so since he tends to perform much better when he is able to practice.

Based on average finishing position, Martinsville is one of Kyle Busch's better tracks despite some abysmal efforts earlier in his career.

He is coming off a second-place finish in Martinsville in a year where drivers typically weren't practicing due to COVID restrictions.

The conditions now are just right for Kyle Busch to win.

But thankfully Bovada is letting us simply invest in Kyle Busch finishing ahead of Larson at a reasonable price.

Best Bet: Kyle Busch to Finish Ahead of Larson at -125 with Bovada

 
This week is almost identical to last last week.
I made a few bets before qualifying and practice. Not as high on Bell this week. I like Harvick and Austin Dillon again. I like Harrison Burton this week. The Wood Bros have a good history here, plus Haley is not good here. Also RFK racing looked better than expected last week, so rolling with the steady Buescher.

All for 0.5 units (for now) All at BAS:

Harrison Burton +100 over Haley
Harvick -105 over Bell
Austin Dillon +115 over Cindric
Buescher -115 over Allmendinger

0.2 units Harvick to win +2000 (he is more of a Top 10 guy at Martinsville, but has momentum)
 
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The Henrick cars look great in practice and qualifying, especially Chase and Byron. Larson looked great too, but this is not a great track for him.
Truex and Hamlin did not look good, but they have a good history here. Bubba was the best-looking Toyota in practice.
Harvick and Buescher were great in qualifying but not great in practice. Almirola was great in both practice and qualifying.

BAS put their lines back up.
I now have the following:

1 unit:
Buescher -115 over Allmendinger (Allmendinger will be 2 laps down after his passthrough. He could get lucky and have a quick caution, but Buescher has a good car, this is a good tract for him, and RFK is getting better. Bet it if you have BAS)
Custer -110 over Allmendinger (See above)
Harvick -105 over Bell
Bubba +145 over Eric Jones (this is not a bad track for Bubba and he was fast in practice and qualifying, this line just seems off)

0.5 unit:
Harrison Burton +100 over Haley
Austin Dillon +115 over Cindric
Chase Elliott +115 over Truex

0.2 units Harvick to win +2000 (he is more of a Top 10 guy at Martinsville, but has momentum)
 
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The BAS lines have moved so much that I will not be able to add to them. I have:

1 unit:
Buescher -115 over Allmendinger (This is now -185) (BAS)
Custer -110 over Allmendinger (This is now -185) (BAS)
Harvick -105 over Bell (This is now -115) (BAS)
Bubba +145 over Eric Jones (This is now Bubba -140) (BAS)
Harvick +103 over Bowman (BM)
Chase Elliott +115 & -120 over Truex (This is now -155 at BAS so I put 0.5 unit on it at DK at -120) (0.5 unit+115 (BM) & 0.5 unit -120 (DK))

0.5 unit:
Harrison Burton +100 over Haley (This is now -105 on BAS but I doubt I will add) (BAS)
Austin Dillon +115 over Cindric (This is now +125 on BAS and is the only one that has moved against me but I doubt I will add) (BAS)
Buescher +200 Top 10 (DK)

0.2 units Harvick to win +2000 (BAS)

0.1 unit Bubba Top Toyota +2500 (DK)
 
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So I lied, one more. Chase qualified on the pole, had the best 1 lap speed in practice, and had the best 20 lap speed in practice. Almirola, Custer, and Buescher are starting 2-4 so Chase should get out to the lead pretty easily. Byron is really the only car that appears to be a real threat to the lead in the first stage unless there are a lot of cautions. There will not be a competition caution.

0.5 unit:
Chase to win the first stage +280 (DK)

All bets:

1 unit:
Buescher -115 over Allmendinger (This is now -185) (BAS)
Custer -110 over Allmendinger (This is now -185) (BAS)
Harvick -105 over Bell (BAS)
Bubba +145 over Eric Jones (This is now Bubba -140) (BAS)
Harvick +103 over Bowman (BM)
Chase Elliott +115 & -120 over Truex (0.5 unit+115 (BAS) & 0.5 unit -120 (DK))

0.5 unit:
Harrison Burton +100 over Haley (BAS)
Austin Dillon +115 over Cindric (BAS)
Buescher +200 Top 10 (DK)
Byron to win Group B over Logano, Bell, and Bowman +220 (DK)
Chase to win the first stage +280 (DK)

0.2 units Harvick to win +2000 (BAS)

0.1 unit Bubba Top Toyota +2500 (DK)
 
1 unit:
Buescher -115 over Allmendinger (This is now -185) (BAS)
Custer -110 over Allmendinger (This is now -185) (BAS)
Harvick -105 over Bell (BAS)

Bubba +145 over Eric Jones (This is now Bubba -140) (BAS)
Harvick +103 over Bowman (BM)

Chase Elliott +115 & -120 over Truex (0.5 unit+115 (BAS) & 0.5 unit -120 (DK))

0.5 unit:
Harrison Burton +100 over Haley (BAS)
Austin Dillon +115 over Cindric (BAS)

Buescher +200 Top 10 (DK)
Byron to win Group B over Logano, Bell, and Bowman +220 (DK)
Chase to win the first stage +280 (DK)


0.2 units Harvick to win +2000 (BAS)

0.1 unit Bubba Top Toyota +2500 (DK)


Martinsville+4.85 units

Nascar Total (2022):
Xfinity +4.4 units
Cup +39.59 units
Both +43.99 units
 
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