Bjorks Week 2 Card

[bjorks]

I started out on fire last week going 7-1 to start and was up over 25 units. However, the gambling gods have brought me back to earth as I foolishly decided to back two awful coaches (Tommy Bowden and Phillip Fulmer) and have gone 0-5, which has cost me. Thankfully me 5* play came in for us. Thanks Wazzou!

My mistake during my last 5 games has a common theme. I didn't like the line during the week but bet because a) I was bored and wanted some action and/or b) tailed people. Either way I need more self discipline because it ended up costing me about 3 units. More proof to the fact I'm an idiot!

3 early plays locked in already.

Cal -11 @ Wazzou (5.5 - 5)
This could very easily turn into the 5* Grey Goose Play of the Day for me. I won't talk to the Wazzou people until Wednesday, but you're basically telling me Cal is only 4 points better than Okie St? I didn't bet on Cal/Michigan St because I really wanted to see Cal first. This is a team who could finish second in the PAC or seventh. My questions concerning Kevin Riley and Javid Best were answered. You knew the defense was going to OK and the OL play stellar. Essentially Cal, looked like the Cal of old.

The problem is Cal 1-9 SU in Pullman in the last 10 years and overall Wazzou is 14-9-1 SU at home versus Cal. Cal won 21-17 LY at Cal, but there is some history of struggling up north. Good news is Cal won in 2006, their last trip to Pullman 21-3. I still like this play though because this isn't the same Wazzou team who could be competitive in the PAC. I expect them to be sharper this week, but it's not like another 1/3 of the playbook is going to be put in. One of my main questions this week is how and when are they going to try to implement the rest of the playbook.

Cal has enough talent to score 30+ here. If their DL does anything to put pressure on Gary Rogers. Okie State held Brandon Gibson to only 53 yards on 6 catches and gave a pretty good blueprint on how to contain the best WR in the PAC.

I looked for this line early and even though locked in at 11, it's closer to 14 right now. Despite the past history of Cal's struggles in Pullman I ask myself how much better of a team is Cal than Okie St? I believe the offense is better and the defense isn't any worse if not slightly better. The Cal secondary is definitely better than Okie St's.

As soon as I talk to sources in Pullman I may make this a POD, but it's going to be tough because most can only get the line at 13+, which I still think is safe, but don't want to use a line nobody can get anymore. I've got this game capped though at 17.

Prediction Cal 34 - WSU 16

Penn St -15 Vs. Oregon St (3.3 - 3)
Oregon St is bad. There are so many things going against the Beavers here. If they had a past of playing Penn St I'd think differently, but this will be a hostile environment for Lyle Moevao, who was rattled last week at times despite his 404 passing yards. This is the longest road game they've ever made and the first time they've played Penn St. Overall they are 13-27 SU against the Big 10.

Penn St is much better across the board than OSU and I have a hard time believing they will get to DD in the game. This is definitely a bet based more on Oregon St's struggles as opposed to Penn St's talent. I'm just glad Anthony Morelli is not at QB to piss me off this year. Penn St. is one of the hardest places to play in the country and with there defense, they should be able to limit the Beavers. Moevao certainly isn't going to pass for 400 yards again in Happy Valley.

Beaver starting safety Al Afalava is back this week and there's hope 2 OL are back as well from injuries. If the Beavers are going to give up 36 points to a very average Stanford offense, it's scary to think what the Lions will be able to do. I've capped it in favor of Penn St -17.5.

Prediction Penn St. 38 - Oregon St. 13

Notre Dame -20 Vs. San Diego St (3.3 - 3)
As Dr. Lou says, Notre Dame has a chance to win 10 games this year. Although I disagree, this is definitely a game where Notre Dame can name their score. Not much to say other than SDSU is terrible. I had this capped at 24.

Prediction ND 41 SDSU 13

Leans
BYU @ Washington (Waiting to see what this, but I love BYU here. If BYU can get past Utah, this is your BCS at large team.)
East Carolina @ West Virginia (Can't deny last week)
Bowling Green Vs. Minnesota (Huge revenge game for MN, but they have the same problems they did last year on defense)
Utah Vs. UNLV
Arizona St Vs. Stanford - (Despite ASU's struggles on offense in the 2H last week, I'm not worried)
Arizona Vs. Toledo (Stoops ran it up like I thought he would, but wasn't sure he would. They could probably hang 70 here again against a team picked to finish near the bottom of the MAC. Possible 5* play

GL this week guys. I'll update as best I can with add ons and any "information" I happen to stumble on this week.

Let's keep it going!
:cheers:

 

[bjorks]

Also, there are some absolute locks in the UFC this Saturday too. Although there's another area for this I'll post my UFC plays here also.

Vegas definitely doesn't have MMA capped accurately. The public and Vegas is dumb about MMA and if you know anything about MMA these matches are very very lopsided for the most part. I don't consider to be an expert at MMA, but I have a strong background in martial arts and MMA capping is like capping the WWE to me. I've probably made more on MMA the last year than I have in the NFL and baseball combined.

 

[Schrute]

Can't wait to hear what your Wazzu connection has to say. GL this week bud. Loving the card so far

 

[bjorks]

Bowling Green -6 Vs. Minnesota
Minnesota is looking for revenge here despite the game being played at Bowling Green. Against NIU LW, MN allowed 326 yards in the air, but played the run pretty stingy allowing only 99 yards on the ground. What's interesting is NIU only ran 61 plays on offense and NIU had 30 plays on the ground for an average of 3.3 yards per play, but averaged over 10.5 yards per passing play and 19.2 yards per completion! They completed 17 passes for 3 and a quarter, that's insane!!!

Minnesota's secondary is still awful. Their vaunted recruiting class? There top 2 players are out, 1 because of academics and the other because of heart surgery. An article in the Minneapolis paper talked about the fact the freshman who Brewster was looking at seeing some time, made zero impact. They have 2 JC CB's starting and I can't think of their name right now, but they played as soft as the secondary last year. They again had very little pass rush and were prone to giving up big plays.

It took going for it on 4n1 from the 3 with :55 left to win it down 3. Brewster passed on the chip shot FG to send it to OT and went for it. Ballsy, but for a team that was supposed to be a lot better than last year's team, telling.

BG is one of the best teams at running the spread and obviously pulled a big upset against Pitt. Tyler Sheehan didn't have a great game, but he torched the Gophers for 388 last year in their 32-31 victory.

I don't know if the defense can play as well as they did, but they're going to need to at least slow down MN's ground game with Webber and Duane Bennett. Bennett has a shot to be pretty good and I think once Webber get's it going with some of his young WR's they'll be alright. I thought he forced it a little bit at times to the guys he trusts, Decker and TE Jack Simmons. But then again, he doesn't have many options with 2 walkons (Tow-Arnett and Kuznia) seeing major minutes.

I really like the OVER 55 here more than the BG -6. I'm playing both, but really wish I would've locked in at -4.5 when it opened. BG obviously has the confidence going, but it could be a look ahead as they travel to the blue turf the following week. I think this turns into a bit of a shootout and I wouldn't be surprised at all if one team cracks 40. I capped the total 65-68 and was really surprised it's this low.

Prediction: BG 38 MN 31

Plays: BG OVER 55 (3.3 - 3)
BG -6 (1.1 - 1)
1H/2H probably play the OVERS

 

[Inspekdah]

I don't think BG looks ahead vs. any B10 team. Beat Big East and Big 10 then go get smacked in week 3.

 

[RetroVK]

like cal as well , gl bjorks.

 

[counselor]

Like the BG side and total, bud...BOL

 

[bjorks]

Cal -11 @ Washington St

I'm not going to lie, I have good news and bad news. Good news: My buddy up there thinks they have a chance to win every game, but is honest with me about things. I trust his opinion, but I do have read between the lines sometimes because he's always optimistic. Bad news: I'm comfortable with the line being -11 for me, but I'd be a little worried with it higher.

I personally thought the line would open at 13, about where it is and when it was lower, I jumped. Hopefully it doesn't matter and Cal wins by 20, but if you're thinking about this game I hope this info helps.

I'm going to type up our conversation we had. Please be advised that I'm not including names here to protect the players, but if you do the research you'll be able to figure them out. Also keep in mind, my friend has no clue about how to gamble so when he throws a number out there, it has no relationship with what the actual line is.

HIM: I think it's probably Cal by 10, but not much more than that, we don't lose home openers! (They've won 7 straight and 14 of the last 16 at Martin)

HIM: We are getting 2 WR's back, but one is still questionable. We also got 2 OL back who would've started last week, but 1 starter last week is probably out this week on the OL. He got hurt yesterday in practice.

HIM: If we lose it's because our DB's. They suck, but we're working on it. We think we'll be able to pass this week. ____ and ____ coming back will help big time, especially in our ability to get _____ the ball more.

HIM: We can't run and we don't think we can run against their D, we're going to do our best to pass 40 times this week. At least that's what they said in meetings, could change at walk thru, but I'll let you know.

HIM: We still don't have everything in. We didn't work on run plays much this week, but tried to get some new passing things with _____ and ______ coming back this week. ______ is the 300 hurdles champ in the PAC and he helps a lot. If we get it together and can move through the air, we cover!

My thoughts still haven't changed a great deal though. Yes Cal struggles in Pullman, but so does everyone else in the PAC. It's a tough place to play. I just don't think you can make huge improvements in one week to make a significant difference this early in the season. Add to that they have 4 potential starters returning this week, but another one potentially out, there's some gel and chemistry issues that may still need to be worked out. It's still a young team that's learning how to play with each other and if you asked me is Cal 4 points better than Okie St. I still say yes. I don't feel as good about this play as I did, but I have to remind myself of so-and-so's enthuisasm for his team.

Whatever you do good luck, I hope this helps!
:cheers:

 

[bjorks]

Toledo @ Arizona -23

I wasn't sure what to think of Arizona -27.5 last week and I talked myself and a few buddies off the play. I wanted to pull the trigger, but Mike Stoops is idiot, dickhead, Barney Rubble punk and he once again proved it last week running it up against Idaho. However it wouldn't of surprised me to see them fall on their face last week either. You always hear a lot of hype coming form the south, but you just never tend to believe it. As a Sun Devil fan I'm a little more worried about traveling south later in the year.

There were rumors AZ really had their shit together in the preseason and although Idaho is Idaho, hanging 70 on someone is tough to do. The fat man Tommy even said in the Tucson paper this week he's worried about AZ hanging 100 on them (a little tongue in cheek). However with 15 starters coming back from a 5-7 team, the Rockets will put up a little more of a fight than Idaho in the toilet bowl we call tucson.

Arizona's offense is the best I've ever seen in. Tuitama is sharp and healthy. I think it helps going to the spread to try to limit the hits on this guy. He's got a chance to put up Colt Brennan numbers this year if he can stay healthy. I also like the fact this is Toledo's first game of the year. First game you always struggle with the little things, especially on special teams. Not to mention it's supposed to be hot as hell saturday again.

Like the BG game, I really like the OVER 58.5 here. Toledo is going to get some stops, but I don't think Arizona cares if they stop someone this year. HOWEVER they do have the defense to do it, the mentality is were going bomb away on you until you stop us. I'm not sure Toledo can has the man power to do it, but I can guarantee this, Arizona is going to a bowl this year and they're going to probably hang 20 on SC this year.

Prediction: AZ Mildcats 45 Toledo 17
Plays: AZ OVER 58.5 (3.3 - 3)
AZ -23 (1.1 - 1)

 

[dylanphan]

nice writeups bjorks.
I don't agree with a few of your plays, but I appreciate the writeups.
Going to look for your MMA plays now

 

[ddk997]

with you on Cal and ND.

Good Luck this weekend Bjorks:cheers:

 

[BlitzBandit]

nice writeups bjorks... and gl bud

 

[bjorks]

Stanford @ ASU -14
Tot - 52.5

Seems like Vegas has a better feel in Week 2 for the lines, because this one is right there.

ASU on offense last week was Charlie's Angels Full Throttle last week...for a half. Carpenter looked like one of the countries top QB's, but the offense hit a wall in the second half once backups got in. There's been a lot of talk about Danny Sullivan being solid, but he looked like crap.

Stanford showed some guts by taking out Oregon St in a game I thought they'd win. Of course, I didn't bet on it, but Stanford showed pretty much what they're capable of. A decent defense that will occasionally give up the big play, but can also get some stops when need be.

Unfortunately for the tree, the secondary has no chance against Carpenter and ASU's WR's. Chris McGaha (4 - 58) looked good returning from basically a turf toe type injury, Mike Jones was excellent (6 - 162), and Kerry Taylor was solid as well (4 - 93). What wasn't solid was Carpenter was the leading rusher with 43 yards. NAU got steady pressure on Carpenter who isn't the fleetest of foot. Keegan Herring was out and is probably going to be limited against the tree. They're saying it's a hammy, but I'm 99% sure it's still his shoulder from getting popped by a teammate in preseason. Dimitri Nance was a non factor in Herrings absence with 30 yards on 11 carries.

The tree's front 4 on the DL is the defense. It'll be a good test to see if the ASU OL has really improved or not because this is a definite step up from NAU, who was able to force Carpenter out of the pocket. If Rudy has time though, he should go for 300 plus again.

The offense had 10 of their 14 drives go 4 plays or less with only 10 points coming on those 10 drives. They were also only 3-12 on 3rd down conversions against a team who'd defense is worse than Stanford's.

The game plan is quite simple this week as they're really going to expose the Stanford secondary. Carpenter will have 35+ attempts, but ASU will need to sharpen up. Add to that Mike Jones is questionable because of an achilles injury and the game doesn't exactly set up well for an ASU blowout. Yes it's the PAC 10 opener for ASU, but this team is focused on a little game in 2 weeks. They could very easily overlook Stanford here and have a sloppy battle. I also believe if they are going to have a chance against Georgia, they've got to have Jones and Herring both at 100%. It would be a huge blow to play these two this week at least at 90% and have them suffer a setback.

Trends
ASU is only 11-17-2 SU in PAC 10 openers
ASU has won 3 out of the last 4 openers SU
ASU is 9-3 SU overall against the tree
ASU won 41-3 LY at Stanford

I'm betting smaller on ASU because I firmly believe things will sharpen up. If anything, the injury to Herring helps a little bit because he's not as valuable as people think and it will force Erickson to go to his real strength, passing to Taylor and McGaha. Herring is kinda like Warrick Dunn. He's solid from time-to-time, but disappears to often and isn't big enough to carry the work load. He definitely needs to be in there for Dimitri Nance to be effective though as teams can key in on his one-way running style.

If ASU is sharp they win and the play is to lay the juice on the ML, but my prediction is ASU will air it out. Carpenter is set this year to takeover statistically to be #1 all time at ASU. What's interesting about this is he along with the staff want this to happen sooner rather than later so they can quit talking about it. I definitely get the feeling they're going to try and run up scores possibly early in the season and get it done with.

Not a lot to say about Stanford because IMO this game isn't about what Stanford is able to do or not do, but how sharp ASU is going to be.

My bigger play here is the OVER 52.5 There's about a 15% chance ASU could put that number up by themselves, but I capped it in the low 60s. Either way I've got it...

ASU 41
Tree 23

Play
OVER 52.5 (2.2 - 2)
ASU -14 (1.1 - 1)

May look at a tease here too.

 

[bjorks]

Looking at
Texas Tech/Nevada OVER 67.5
Texas -27
Wake -7.5
Cuse/Akron UNDER 43
USF -13.5
Iowa -28
Northwestern -6
BYU -9
Arizona OVER 59.5
Wisky -21

Waiting to see what the weather will do. Hopefully I'll get talked out of most of these. I'll recap later today my plays. I've got to figure out how to buy out of my Penn St and maybe Cal games. Yuck...

 

[moneydog]

Great Thread Bjorks, I totally agree that this game is about how sharp ASU will be. I look for them to get after Stanfords secondary. ASU OL does concern me , But look fora much better showing I hope. BOL

 

[Dollywood]

I really like the ASU play. Along with ND at -20.5 (I got it on Monday), and Cal at -13.5, that is my play of the week. Stanford is probably getting too much credit after last week's game and I expect ASU to come out firing.

BOL.

 

[bjorks]

Adding
BYU -7.5
Bowling Green down to -5 and -4. Fishy line, but if it keeps moving I'll keep biting.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

good stuff...with cal, psu, and the arizona teams. :shake: