Bjorks Week 10 Card

[bjorks]

Had a very solid week this week and after taking 3 weeks off I feel real good heading into the last few weeks. Hopefully I can keep it up and get out of the whole.

I feel like I got a great feel about some teams and will be riding them until the end.

Strong Leans
Minnesota -6 Vs. Northwestern - For the first time in a long time I bet on Minny and it cashed, LOVE this team and LOVE the schedule. They've honestly got a shot at the Rose Bowl here and coming from me that's a lot.

CJ Bacher is one of the worst QB's in the country. It's an absolute joke they were ranked.

Oregon St -13.5 Vs. Arizona St - ASU has quit, Rudy Carpenter has quit. ASU will be lucky to win 4 games total. My worst case scenario I predicted is coming true. Hold on fellas until ASU travels down the hill to U of Yag. Stoops will do everything he can to win that game by 50.

Alabama -23.5 Vs. Arkansas St. - I admit I don't know a lot about Arky St, but hard pressed to think they'll be able to score here.

Leans
USC -43 Vs. Washington - Call me crazy, but if SC can cover 41.5 at Wazzou, they can cover 43 at home versus UDub, who's not that much better.

Tejas/TT OVER - This will prolly be in the high 70s, but I'm not sure how they don't put up 80+.

Michigan +1.5 @ Purdon't - Purdon't offense is so bad right now. Painter going to be less than 100% going into the game.

Tulane +25 @ LSU - Hate betting against LSU here, but this is a mini rivalry where Tulane would like nothing better than to steal a win, cover, and literally hurt some of the LSU players if possible and vice versa.

TCU -13.5 @ UNLV

Hopefully common sense prevails and I'll be able to add and trim this list. just some early thoughts.

 

[bjorks]

I actually just locked in a 3 team teaser...

Minnesota +4
Alabama -13.5
Oregon St. -3.5

 

[RetroVK]

---Aiding your cause in the minnesota game is the fact that Bacher was banged up at the end of last game. Sutton was also hurt in that game and is unlikely to play this week. so look for conteh to get the ball a lot for NW.

-- ASU is toast. glad to see you agree

--alabama is in a major sandwich spot ... but does saban and company remember the sunbelt foe ul monroe from last year and take it out on asky st ? the fans remember .....

-- cant lay it with usc. Carrol really gonna lay it on willingham in this spot with cal on deck ?? sandwich game and perhaps one of the only spots left for washington kids to get excited about playing. highlights will be on sportscenter so try to make a play. eh ... usc cna if they want to i guess .... not for me but wish you luck

michigan -- line seems spot on to me. team better with or without painter ?? is Threet playing ? hehe.

tulane -- lean the other way but certainly see why you like it.

tcu -- line doesnt make sense other than it reminds me of colorado st game the week before byu.... utah on deck this time but tcu will be in the warmer weather of las vegas and have dalton at qb this time. all tcu does is dominate. i like this game too.

 

[bjorks]

Kinda why I teased Bama, just in case. Feel real good about the other 2.

 

[pags11]

bjork,

with all due respect, if you check Miles history as a head coach (at both LSU and Oklahoma St.), these are exactly the games he tends to cover in...he's a great out of conference "bully", but struggles ATS in conference against teams with similiar talent level where coaching can make a difference...I like that LSU will want to get a lot of reps to both QBs, and also like that they have four capable RB's to wear an already beaten down Tulane defense unit down in the second half...with RB Anderson extremely banged up for Tulane, and their best WR hurt (has 5 of the 7 TD catches for the team0, how are you proposing Tulane will move the football? I think we are seeing a bit of line value here with LSU not covering 2 of the last three weeks...just my two cents...

 

[O-State]

You know what is funny Tulane could of beaten Alabama.

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD align=left> </TD><TD>

</TD><TD>

</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>11</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>318</TD><TD>172</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>232</TD><TD>73</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>86</TD><TD>99</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>4-29</TD><TD>6-43</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>3rd Down Conversions</TD><TD>7-20</TD><TD>3-11</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>4th Down Conversions</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>0-0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>36:35</TD><TD>23:25</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=evenrow><TD align=left>

</TD><TD>TD</TD><TD>10:45</TD><TD>Javier Arenas 87 Yd Punt Return (Leigh Tiffin Kick) </TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>7</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD align=left>

</TD><TD>TD</TD><TD>03:15</TD><TD>Chris Rogers 17 Yd Return Of Blocked Punt (Pat Failed) </TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>13</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=middle><TD align=left colSpan=4>SECOND QUARTER</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 30px">TU</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 30px">ALA</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD align=left>

</TD><TD>FG</TD><TD>13:07</TD><TD>Ross Thevenot 35 Yd </TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>13</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=middle><TD align=left colSpan=4>THIRD QUARTER</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 30px">TU</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 30px">ALA</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD align=left>

</TD><TD>TD</TD><TD>00:00</TD><TD>Mark Ingram 15 Yd Run (Leigh Tiffin Kick) </TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>20</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=middle><TD align=left colSpan=4>FOURTH QUARTER</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 30px">TU</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 30px">ALA</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD align=left>

</TD><TD>FG</TD><TD>11:47</TD><TD>Ross Thevenot 21 Yd </TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>20</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Now bjorks I am not condoning a bet placement on Tulane here at all. Just a little fact that will go unnoticed by many if Bama wins a national championship.

---My thoughts on games like these bjorks is VERY RARELY bet on a team that is so out talented and out matched it is not even funny. I think picking dogs is about being selective because you don't want to end up with money on the worse team unless the line is outrageous, or in your opinion the two teams are not that far off and it's great situationally. In this particular game LSU can cover if they want and you will be sitting on your seat till 0 if Tulane has a chance of covering because LSU will still have the ability to come back and cover.

---LSU got blown out again and want to let off some steam. Last year remember in New Orleans it was like a 3-0 halftime game or something crazy and then LSU romped. LSU might be more wary due to Tulane playing Bama close, and Tulane playing LSU close last year. I haven't seen Tulane this year but they might stand a chance of scoring on LSU getting on the perimeter if that's what you see.

The game that intrigues me more is Bama -23.5. Arky St runs runs runs they should be lucky to get points on the board. Would consider Bama but this is a sandwitch game between Tenny and LSU and we saw the Tulane Bama result.

 

[pags11]

here's the latest release from Bob Toledo regarding their upcoming game from rotoworld.com, "
Tulane undecided on starting quarterback

Posted by [URL="http://blog.nola.com/tulanebeat/about.html"]Ted Lewis, Times-Picayune[/URL] October 26, 2008 6:15PM

Categories: Football

Michael DeMocker/The Times-PicayuneJoe Kemp might be the starter at quarterback for Tulane this week against LSU.
Following Saturday's 42-17 loss to Rice, Tulane Coach Bob Toledo said he was too emotional to make a decision about his quarterback for this Saturday's game at LSU.
He's going to decide whether to stay with starter Kevin Moore or go with Joe Kemp, who took over in the second half with the Green Wave trailing 35-0 and drove the team to all of its scoring.
Late Sunday, Toledo still hadn't made up his mind.

"We just don't know yet," he said. "We've talked about it this morning, we talked about it early in the afternoon and then talked about it again. We're going to put a game plan together and talk some more. I'd say right now that both will get a chance to play because it's going to be a very difficult football game."
Moore, who beat out Kemp in spring practice and who had played every meaningful offensive snap before the Rice game, completed nine of 20 passes Saturday and was intercepted twice as Tulane (2-5, 1-3 Conference USA) lost its third straight game.
Kemp, a redshirt freshman, was 14 of 20 for 201 yards and two touchdowns. He showed greater mobility than Moore, escaping would be tacklers a couple of times to complete plays.
But he also was sacked three times, which Toledo showed Kemp's inexperience at getting rid of the ball, and the prime reason he had not seen more playing time was because of his difficulty in mastering the offense.
"Joe makes some bad decisions, but he also makes some big plays," Toledo said. "We may have to see if he can overcome those mistakes with his play-making ability."
Toledo said his options were to divide reps in practice and make a decision based on that, starting Kemp, starting Moore and rotating his quarterbacks by series.
Part of the decision will be based on the opponent.
"This is going to be a very difficult game," Toledo said. "We don't want Joe to get demoralized. LSU is a really good football team and we're a beat up football team. I know they gave up some big plays (against Georgia), but obviously we're not capable of making big plays right now."
Among the injured for Tulane is running back Andre Anderson, who suffered a separated shoulder Saturday and is probably out for the season. Anderson was fourth in the country in rushing before Saturday with 852 yards.
The Wave probably also will be without left guard Nick Landry, who has a turf toe. He would be replaced by freshman Harris Howard.

guys, we are talking about a team already without it's best WR (who has 5 of their 7 TD catches this season) and now without the third leading rusher in the nation...their defense is banged up, their offensive line is banged up and they don't even know who their starting QB is going to be...combine all of this with Les Miles and crew wanting to take out their frustrations from playing two of the nation's top teams the previous three weeks on a weaker opponent that they can bully (which Miles is famous for doing) and it is not a good spot for Tulane...

 

[Marlo]

Bjorks

Good luck this week man. The Offense didnt look great against Purdue, but the defense on this team is doing there thing.

Rose Bowl isnt out of the question with the way this defense is playing, but its unlikely. I think we beat NW, and Michigan, but the big game is against Wisky at Wisky. Iowa is probably a loss.

 

[bjorks]

Thanks Pags and O-State. My heart lies with LSU, by far my favorite college football team, but I love this game as a fan (not as a bettor). Hopefully I can jump off this, but my initial thought was 25.5 and (probably) growing and I'll jump on the Wave.

Marlo, I watched the game Saturday with 4 former Gophers who I haven't seen in a long time. Since they played, I've never been able to watch a game with them and it was fun and interesting listening to them break it down. Got some great stories too. They said the 2 hardest places for them to play at because of the fans were Penn St and Iowa. I think, and they did too, is they get 3 out of the 4.

I'd love a Rose Bowl trip, but I think honestly a Capital One Bowl is prolly more likely.

 

[counselor]

I can't believe it's October 27 and this can still even be discussed....

The offense is a concern to me. We should have been able to put up more points against Purdue, and although I like the way the defense is playing, we'll need to score more points vs Northwestern than we did last week, or the last time we played at home vs a below-average Indiana team.

 

[bjorks]

I can't believe it's October 27 and this can still even be discussed....

The offense is a concern to me. We should have been able to put up more points against Purdue, and although I like the way the defense is playing, we'll need to score more points vs Northwestern than we did last week, or the last time we played at home vs a below-average Indiana team.

I know how you feel.

The big thing for MN is the OL is awful. Not Arizona St. awful, but they are bad and will be the achilles heel. It's also too bad Duane Bennett got hurt.

But, they've got the bend but not break philosophy on D. They mix it up and blitz from all over. Adam Weber is probably in the Top 3 QB's in the Big 10 and Decker might be a Top 3 WR despite having Top 10 physical talents.

My fear is this though...Minnesota Vs. Georgia in the Cap1 Bowl.

What's that line? Georgia -23.5? Minnesota would get creamed by an SEC runner up.

 

[booksbestfriend]

Alabama -23.5 Vs. Arkansas St. - I admit I don't know a lot about Arky St, but hard pressed to think they'll be able to score here

If one thing can be said about Saban, it is that he runs a disciplined program. Boot camp like. He will have his team prepared for every game they enter. Defensively, although young, plays with as much heart as any team in the nation. Alabama has completely sold on the preaching of Saban. Last week against UT, you saw the most complete game of the year for Bama. I would look for some early scoring and then a removal of the 1st string to rest for LSU. That will include the defense as well. Mt. Cody is already out and they do not have the debth to lose any other key players. Bama has benefited from good field position with Arelius returning punts. I don't expect to see him on special teams much. Now be weary of the 2nd half meltdowns against Georgia and Ole Miss. I cannot say I like the tease do to the number, but I would surely lay off the outright line. May be a bad spot for Bama backers with LSU on deck.

 

[E.T.G.]

I've seen a few bowl projections with Minnesota playing South Carolina in the Outback

 

[bjorks]

I started looking at projections and the deal is if MN runs the table they're a lock for the Rose Bowl assuming Penn St. doesn't lose twice.

Penn St. is @Iowa and home against Indiana and Michigan St.
Minnesota has Northwestern, Michigan, @Wisconsin, and finishes with Iowa at home.

Penn St and MN tie for Big 10 title, MN get's Rose Bowl bid.
Penn St goes undefeated, MN finishes 2nd (or tied), MN gets Rose Bowl bid

I think worst case scenario is that Cap1 bowl assuming they finish with just 2 losses.

The obvious is what happens to Ohio St? I think they end up


Bowls
Championship - Penn St Vs. Texas
Orange - Florida St Vs. Alabama
Sugar - Florida Vs. Texas Tech
Rose - USC Vs. Ohio St
Fiesta - Oklahoma Vs. Georgia

I suppose you need to figure Utah/Boise in there if one runs the table.

 

[booksbestfriend]

One of the SEC will be left out of the bcs. So, there is where your at large mid major comes from.

 

[E.T.G.]

Booksbestfriend: If it is Bama (12-0) vs. UF(11-1) in the SEC-CG and UF wins, both are going to the BCS.

 

[booksbestfriend]

Then GA will be left out

 

[counselor]

My fear is this though...Minnesota Vs. Georgia in the Cap1 Bowl.

What's that line? Georgia -23.5? Minnesota would get creamed by an SEC runner up.

Gophers ML

 

[bjorks]

Locked in 2 plays...

Minnesota -6 Vs. Northwestern
Homecoming for MN. MN offense has not played real well recently, but too many question marks for NW with a questionable Bacher. NW was highly, highly overrated and getting a TD win by a very confident team doesn't seem like too much to ask on Homecoming. 2nd time now in 3 years I'm betting on Goldy and probably will ride them out. This team is sneaky good.

Oregon St - 13.5 Vs. Arizona St
If you like OSU, you better get it now. I see this line jumping a lot as the public is going to bang the hell out of OSU. ASU is awful. I see this getting up to 17 by game time. There's too many injuries and bad attitudes on this club and going up there where they've won 4 of last 5. OSU is the confident team. These teams are going in opposite directions.

 

[bjorks]

Confirmed Texas/TT OVER 75.5 I've got this capped in the low 80s so anything within a TD is good for me.

 

[bjorks]

Added Texas -3

I thought 6 would be the magic number and with huge money coming in on TT I can't not bet Texas -3.

 

[bjorks]

Grey Goose Play of the Day
I talked about it earlier, but Minnesota is going to crush NW today. If they don't win by DD I'll be very surprised. Too many things going in favor of MN here versus a team going in the opposite direction. Largest bet of the year right here for me.

ADDING
Notre Dame -5.5
Florida -7
Navy -7

Insight - Washington St is a 30 point dog to Stanford? I'm not sure Stanford should be a 30 point favorite against anyone in the PAC 10. Wazzou is awful and the upperclassman have pretty much packed it in on Wulf and the season. Wazzou won't be able to stop the Cardinal run at all, but I'm not sure they have the capability to pile it on here. One mistake and Wazzou scores 7-10 and that cover is out the window. I'll never bet on Wazzou this year, but I can't pull the trigger on Stanford either.

Arizona St - The line has kept climbing and I'd play it up to 17. Like Minnesota and Northwestern, two teams going in completely the opposite direction. ASU hasn't packed it in, but they rarely play well in Corvalis and the weather could come into play. ASU is not a cold weather team. They also had a so-so week of practice. There's just too many injuries on both sides of the ball for them to stay close to a team that is really finding their groove.