Bjorks Week 1 Card

bjorks

bjorks

Secretary of Fondy Fanclub
Really going to make an effort to update my posts and keep track of my overall record here this year. I've said that for the last 5 years, but I never update it on here. Don't know if anyone cares though either. Mostly leans right now unless I see some good info out there from someone I'll take a look. As always, for what it's worth...

Thursday
I generally lay off a bit the first weekend just to see if my assessment of teams is accurate and I see in games, what I've read about or heard about. But as always, I'm an idiot and can't lay off the start of the CFL season!

Troy -6.5 (1.1 - 1) Despite the loss of Omar Haughabook, the Troy OL will maul the MTU DL. MTU doesn't have the depth to keep up and asking for a TD win is worth the investment despite the fact I'm betting on a road fav to start the year. If this was at Troy I really think the line would be more like 13.

LEAN
Stanford has a very underrated defense. If they are able to win 3 or 4 games this year it will because of their ability to create turnovers and keep teams with average offenses in check.

OSU is really going to be hit or miss this year, especially early.

Strong lean towards UNDER 45.5

Saturday
5 bottle Grey Goose POD - Oklahoma St -7 @ Wazzou - Many know I'm good friends with a certain WR for Wazzou and it's ugly in Pullman. I talked with him Wednesday and the offense is awful. They've got about 1/3 of the plays in and it's primarily due to guys have no clue what's going on. It's a rebuilding year, but things are progressing very very slow. The Wazzou secondary is terrible and although OSU isn't that great, the game could turn into a high scoring affair for OSU because they're simply more experienced on both sides of the ball. From film sessions, it appears Wazzou will have a very hard time staying with in 14-17 pts here, which made me feel good because I capped this at 15.5 initially! (22 - 20)

Wyoming -11.5 - Will play what is seemingly a popular pick (3.3-3)
Auburn -26.5 OVER UL Monroe - SEC Vs. Sun Belt. (1.1-1)

LEANS
Utah +3 @ Michigan - Really want to take the Utes, but may be more value in taking the ML here.
Clemson -4.5 OVER Bama - Going back and forth here as I can make pretty strong cases for both teams.
Wisconsin -26.5 OVER Akron
Arizona -27 OVER Idaho
Illinois/Mizzou 1H UNDER - Waiting for the number, but I expect both teams to start out slow. The scoring will come in the 2H.

Sunday
LEAN
Colorado St +11 OVER Colorado - This game is all about guys, always close despite talent gaps.

Monday
Fresno St +5 @ Rutgers - May lock this in over the weekend, but really like FSU SU here.

RECAP
Troy -6.5
Oklahoma St -7 5* GGPOD
Wyoming -11.5
Auburn -26.5

LEANS
Oregon St/Stanford UNDER 45.5
Ill/Mizzou 1H UNDER
Colorado St +11
Wisky -26.5
Utah +3
Arizona -27
Fresno St +5

BOL this year guys.
:cheers:
 
With you on Troy, Bjorks. I may join you on WSU. I like Okie Lite in a neutral setting in this one and WSU will struggle early and has had alot of dissention already.
 
RJ Esq said:
Bjorks:

Given the problems on offense for WSU, what are your thoughts on the under 67?
Click to expand...

Here's what I was told.

As bad as it is on offense, Okie St has nobody that can cover Gibson. Even if they go blanket on him, they'll adjust his routes and move him from side-to-side and even into the slot if need be. The OL isn't all that bad so they're going to be able to move the ball a little bit unless they have TO's (obviously) because Okie St is really a below average team on defense, especially in the secondary. That's where Wazzou has some hope.

67 is high IMO. I had it in the 58-62 range at first and since it's a big play for me I'm focusing on the game and not really the score anymore.

My prediction however would be OSU 37 - 20. Somewhere in there. OSU has the capability to hand 40-45 here, but from what I was told, the Wazzou offense will have a hard time cracking 30 unless they get a defensive TD or Special Teams TD, which according to sources is very unlikely.

Hope that helps.
 
bjorks said:
Here's what I was told.

As bad as it is on offense, Okie St has nobody that can cover Gibson. Even if they go blanket on him, they'll adjust his routes and move him from side-to-side and even into the slot if need be. The OL isn't all that bad so they're going to be able to move the ball a little bit unless they have TO's (obviously) because Okie St is really a below average team on defense, especially in the secondary. That's where Wazzou has some hope.

67 is high IMO. I had it in the 58-62 range at first and since it's a big play for me I'm focusing on the game and not really the score anymore.

My prediction however would be OSU 37 - 20. Somewhere in there. OSU has the capability to hand 40-45 here, but from what I was told, the Wazzou offense will have a hard time cracking 30 unless they get a defensive TD or Special Teams TD, which according to sources is very unlikely.

Hope that helps.
Click to expand...

Yeah, Bjorks. Thanks. It does help. I remember L-ville and UK had a total at 72 last year and didn't even come close to that (67 I think). Both these teams are not combining for that.

I have a similar view as you with both teams combining for around 60. I like the spread too, but if the problem is on the offense the under may be the better bet (maybe).
 
I may have to look at the UNDER in the Okie St/Wazzou game again RJ. I like it, and may have to throw a parlay on it as well. I've been so focused on the game I wasn't looking hard at the total.
 
gl Bjorks !!

Appreciate the inside info on washington st. and welcome to teh wyoming train .... how much does the board need that team to cover ?!?!?!




Any opinion on Twins with Radke pitching ?
 
The surgery in game is coming later, Kyle. I've got a good inside line on Radke tonight!
 
bjorks said:
I may have to look at the UNDER in the Okie St/Wazzou game again RJ. I like it, and may have to throw a parlay on it as well. I've been so focused on the game I wasn't looking hard at the total.
Click to expand...

Good to know. I'm looking at it with Jump and may pick Horses' brain about it during beers and games.
 
A coupla other thoughts on the Wazzou game.

Wazzou is going to be a lot like Minnesota was last year. They're moving to the spread and have a couple of very nice pieces in place, but are going to be horrifically inconsistent, which was a big problem with Minny last year. Wazzou has a solid WR in Gibson (like Decker for MN), a capable QB, but none of the guys have played in the spread before. Maybe they're not putting square pegs in a round hole, but they're at least putting oval holes in round ones.

Giggles said a lot of the upperclassmen are a ticked at Wulf, which happened at Minny last year too. A lot of the veterans get pushed to the side because the new staff has to build through youth instead of teaching guys with 1 or 2 years left a new system. If you look at the OOC games for Minny last year, they were really bad and I think this Wazzou team is worse overall in talent than Minny was last year. I know that's hard to believe, but Wazzou has bigger holes overall.

BTW, I'm laying off No. Illinois this week too, because there are so many unknowns coming out of Minnesota on defense I can't get an accurate measure of how/good bad they really are.
 
With a 5 Bottle Grey Goose call on Oklahoma State gonna definitely take a close look at that game and probably tail.:cheers:
 
Troy -6 (W)
Oregon St/Stanford UNDER 45.5 (L)
So. Carolina 2H -7.5 (W)
Oregon St/Stanford 2H OVER 23.5 (W)

2-0 Teams
1-1 Totals
+1.5 Units
 
not that I'm questioning you or anything but I'm just curious what your record was last year on the "5 grey goose bottle" play was?

I liked OSU before I read your post and I'm thinking about making it a HUGE play
 
dfresh said:
not that I'm questioning you or anything but I'm just curious what your record was last year on the "5 grey goose bottle" play was?

I liked OSU before I read your post and I'm thinking about making it a HUGE play
Click to expand...


Don't know his record..obviously..but bjorks has "in's" with players programs being in NCAA atheltics..he gets solid, substantial information and provides it for us...
 
B.A.R. said:
Don't know his record..obviously..but bjorks has "in's" with players programs being in NCAA atheltics..he gets solid, substantial information and provides it for us...
Click to expand...

Oh and I definitely appreciate that information. Just curious.

:shake:
 
dfresh - My record on the plays is a bit skewed because I don't necessarily follow a betting pattern, or aren't at least consistent with wager amounts (hope that makes sense) like a lot of people are.

My POD's are plays generally where I'll bet more than 10 units. So my POD record may not be that great (I have no idea what it is over the last few years), I only keep track of my units. Ya, it skews it, but I could care less about my percentage as long as I rake. Soooooo, it's conceivable I could have a 2-8 weekend, but still be plus money.

I only make them 5*'s generally if I know someone on the team and talk to them directly on a weekly basis, which I do with about 6 teams around the country. The 5* thing is more of a running joke also. I'm not trying to tout myself or anything, but there was a time when everyone had the LOCK OF THE YEAR and I was doing it mockery! I offer it because it lets people know I talked to someone in recent days and got some info, which they can choose to do with what they want.

Friday
College football is here, but I'm going to do my absolute best to not play these two games unless someone posts something significant.

My focus is on Saturday and Okie State!!!
 
bjorks said:
dfresh - My record on the plays is a bit skewed because I don't necessarily follow a betting pattern, or aren't at least consistent with wager amounts (hope that makes sense) like a lot of people are.

My POD's are plays generally where I'll bet more than 10 units. So my POD record may not be that great (I have no idea what it is over the last few years), I only keep track of my units. Ya, it skews it, but I could care less about my percentage as long as I rake. Soooooo, it's conceivable I could have a 2-8 weekend, but still be plus money.

I only make them 5*'s generally if I know someone on the team and talk to them directly on a weekly basis, which I do with about 6 teams around the country. The 5* thing is more of a running joke also. I'm not trying to tout myself or anything, but there was a time when everyone had the LOCK OF THE YEAR and I was doing it mockery! I offer it because it lets people know I talked to someone in recent days and got some info, which they can choose to do with what they want.

Friday
College football is here, but I'm going to do my absolute best to not play these two games unless someone posts something significant.

My focus is on Saturday and Okie State!!!
Click to expand...

Makes sense. And thanks again for the information man. GL this weekend
 
Thanks to Rexy, I got a (W) on Al Golden and the Temple of Doom!

Saturday plays locked in different from above
Utah ML +145 - Spread is not a concern. Utah wins SU or loses big. (1 - 1.45)
So Cal -19 - I'm biting. (1.1 - 1)

Still Leaning
Clemson -4.5
Wisconsin -26.5
Ill/Mizzou 1H UNDER
Arizona -27

Someone hopefully will talk me out of those last four.

BOL Saturday, guys. If I hear any late news on Wazzou I'll definitely post it.
 
Last edited:
Its almost a 5 hour trip from Pullman to Seattle... That has to significantly deflate any home field advantage, correct?
 
I think it's insignificant regardless of where the game is played for Wazzou. If it was in Pullman, you may see that .5 drop, but I'm not sure Vegas wouldn't mind a push here. Almost everywhere the -7 you're laying the extra juice anyway (-115). 85% of the people are on Okie lite according to sports.com so my guess is it could peak at 7.5 tomorrow.

Forgot to mention I added...
LSU -15 (3.3 - 3)
 
Saturday Adds
USC -20.5 - Lost a point here from this morning, but I don't think the defense will surrender more than 10 points, if that.

Hopefully Wyoming comes through here.
 
Okie St -7 (W) +20
Okie St 2H OVER 27 (W) +.5
Wyoming -11.5 (L) -3.3
Utah ML (W) +1.45
USC -19.5 (W) +1
USC -10.5 1H (W) +.5
LSU -15 (W) =+3

PENDING
Auburn -26.5 (1.1 - 1)
Clemson 1H -2.5 (.55 - .5)
Clemson ML (2 - 1)
 
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