Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
I know this will be the single least surprising revelation on this site since Hunt was caught transporting—let me just get the Feds' indictment right, "Multiple little people," over state lines back in 2009, but I'm on the Birds this weekend. I'll try to be as objective as humanly possible, then we can let @Capaholic come in here and tell me why I'm wrong. Also, you have an entire week to kill, so here's a long read to help you out.
Maybe I should also say, yes, I have been on the Birds the last two weeks. I teased the Giants game mainly because it was the third time they'd played them. And last week there was no way you were going to convince me to lay off when you were sending a rookie QB—a rookie QB who had arguably not even started road game in a single difficult environment yet in the NFL—into Philly for the NFC Championship. Like sending the Giants in there on short rest for a night game, this spot was shitty for SF. Anyway, onward to this week.
Let's take in-game injury off the table for both teams. Yes, Mahomes could really aggravate the ankle or whatever, but let's assume the teams stay as they are because you can't cap that kind of unfortunateness. Looking at these teams right now, I feel like there are two ways KC wins.
Scenario One: Patrick Mahomes has a monster game, Chiefs win 38-24
Look, if Patrick Mahomes is going to throw for four TDs and run for another, you're going to lose. He's arguably the best QB in the league, and if he can have a day, you just have to take the loss because there's nothing you could have to cap the game differently.
Scenario Two: Jalen Hurts melts down, Chiefs win 34-20
The other way I think KC can get here is if the moment really does prove too big for Jalen. I think of the Jacksonville game earlier in the year where Jax goes down and scores, then Jalen immediately gives them the ball back on a tipped-ball INT, and suddenly it's 14-0. That's one thing when you're at home, in the middle of the season, vs. an out of conference opponent—a team that at the time was, I believe under .500. But if you go down early like that in the SB, and you rattle Hurts, who's to say he doesn't start to press. At which point, you're probably getting more turnovers, or at least really short fields, and then KC is just going to out-score you.
I bring these two scenarios up in part to say, if you like KC, I really believe it correlates to the over. KC's running game, against this defense, isn't going to control the clock. If they win, KC is going to win through the air. And that may be done with eight yard passes to Kelce all day, but that's still going to get you points. Ditto if the Eagles fall apart. So, were I playing KC, I'd probably tie it to the over.
Speaking of which, I also have some of the over, but I'll get to that further down.
How do the Birds win on offense
So, if that's how I see KC winning, how likely do we think those scenarios are? Well, the first one totally could happen at any time, but you can't really bank on it happening or not so I feel like you kind of just have to let it go and if it does happen, be happy you got the easy winner if you're on it, etc. The second though ... I'd be lying if I said their wasn't a chance.
One thing a lot of Eagles fans may not admit to about the NFC Championship is that the entire passing game didn't look all that great to start the game. Hurts himself didn't look super great, he overthrew what should have been an easy, huge completion to AJB. But you also had drops of balls that were well thrown. Credit where it's due, you also had some really good plays by SF corners. Point is, Hurts melting down could happen.
So, if you're the Eagles, what are you doing to maximize what you do best while also limiting the chances of either of those two KC win scenarios from happening. The answer: You keep Mahomes off the field as much as you can—and you take as much pressure off Hurts when you have the ball as possible. Obviously, you run the football.
If you're looking for a TL;DR version of why I'm on the Birds here other than because I'm a Birds fan, it's this. Right now, the Eagles have the most dominant OL in the game. The Chiefs have a decent, but not great run defense. You're going to give me the team with the better OL/DL, and the better running game, at essentially a PK?
Think about this, KC hasn't faced a quality run offense in like two months. Cincy is pretty balanced, but they beat you because they have arguably the best WR corps in the league. No offense to Joe Mixon, but the Bengals' passing game is so terrifying, it opens up room for the run. Jax can run the ball, but in that game the Jags were down so early they had to pass. Before that you've got Denver who lost their best back like three games into the season and was working with an injured OL. The Raiders have a solid run game, but the last time KC played them, the Raiders were starting Jarrett Stidham under center. Of course you line up 10 in the box to stop Jacobs and dare that dude to beat you through the air (turns out, Jarrett Stidham did not, in fact, beat them through the air).
Bottom line, the Eagles are going to run this football and test that KC run defense in ways it hasn't been tested in months. Don't get me wrong, I am absolutely certain Philly will take their shots. It's how Sirianni has coached them all year, and the call on 4th and 3 that turned into the Smith catch-that-wasn't-a catch last week proves that. But I am positive the Eagles are confident they can run the ball on this KC defense. That they will use that to control the clock, keep Mahomes off the field, and let that open up the passing game.
The problem I see for KC is ... I don't really see how they stop that. Is Jalen 100%? No, but it's his shoulder, not his legs and the Birds run a ton of RPO stuff. This is why you had plays vs. SF where arguably the best part of the best defense in the league—the middle of it—was frozen in their tracks. Because even Fred Warner gets stuck trying to figure out the Philly RPO. If Philly can do it to SF, they're going to be able to do it to KC. And don't just believe me about Philly/SF, when KC goes up against someone like Josh Allen who also runs a ton of RPO stuff, Allen consistently moves up and down the field on them. Go back in the season and look at KC vs. Tennessee. Malik WIllis ran for 40 while Derek Henry went for 110+. And that's Malik Willis who hasn't yet proven he can beat anyone through the air, let alone that Tenny has the weapons in the passing game to do it. Meanwhile, Hurts has a ton of tape on being able to throw deep, and even if you don't think he can get it there right now because of his shoulder, what are you going to do, not cover AJB and Devonta Smith? Do you want to gamble that Quez Watkins 40+ yards downfield won't see the ball if you just let him run?
Here's the other problem, KC's defense at the back is not great. They are starting a ton of really young guys. And, again, credit where it's due, this secondary played well vs. a great Cincy WR corps. But now Philly has two weeks to prepare for this secondary, with two great WRs and a really good TE. KC's defense is better than it's been in years past, but that really only puts it in the middle of the league. KC is 17th in opponent's first downs per game, 19th in allowing third down conversions, 21st in opponent plays per game. The best this defense gets to in meaningful stats is like 8th. Meanwhile, Philly just ran for 148 on the best D in the league. Bottom line, you're asking a lot from this KC defense in this game. A LOT.
How does Philly win on defense
One way I can argue that Mahomes does have a big day, oddly, is because the Philly defense is so good. Right now, Philly is like 5(?) sacks away from setting like a single season record or something. It's nuts. But here's the problem. I believe Peter King mentioned this factoid early in the week, Mahomes is one of those rare QBs who is actually better the less time you give him. When you speed up his clock, he makes better decisions. This also makes sense if you think about how Mahomes succeeds. He doesn't do it by being a pocket passer. He does it by moving the pocket, getting out of the pocket, then letting guys like Kelce win when the defense breaks down. If the Eagles are too aggressive on defense trying to kill him and end the game in the first quarter, it could really open up some lanes for Mahomes to have a good day.
However, KC has a problem, well, a couple of problems here. First, Philly can get home without blitzing. You've already seen it, but beyond guys like Cox and Graham, Hasson Reddick is on a mission. That should allow the Birds to keep Mahomes mostly in the pocket. That's not where he's at his best. Second, Mahomes isn't 100%. Now, I fully believe he was at like 75%-80% vs. Cincy and that he will be at about 90% in the SB. And Mahomes at 90% is still better than probably 90% of the QBs in the league. However, unlike Hurts' injury, Mahomes ankle directly impacts the one thing that makes him so dangerous, his mobility. So you have a defense that should be able to limit his mobility, without excessively blitzing, forcing him into doing what he's least effective at.
But then, you have what I believe might even be a bigger problem. Basically KC's entire WR corps isn't 100% either. Hardman wouldn't have played this weekend. My guess is he's either out or extremely limited for the SB. Ju-Ju has a knee issue. Tony has an ankle injury (maybe also a hamstring?). None of those three have practiced this week.
Now, again, I expect all of them (save maybe Hardman) to play. But they're all dealing with things that will make them slower. That's a problem.
Meanwhile, the Eagles have exactly one injury on defense, CB Avonte Maddox who's got like a turf toe thing and was in a boot this week. However, Maddox played last weekend and by all indications, the boot was precautionary and he will play in the SB.
So, on one side of the ball, you have an offense that is limited by injury. On the other, you have the second best defense in the league, essentially completely healthy. And the ML is affordable.
Some intangibles
I am not going to tell you KC doesn't need this game. Or that Andy Reid with two weeks to prepare is anything but really good. But a couple of things to remember here. First, on Andy Reid. All Birds fans love Big Red (to varying degrees). But one thing he doesn't do—and this is the reason I was happier about the Birds facing this KC team than Cincy—is that Andy doesn't really adjust all that much at halftime. If Cincy is the best at it in the league, Andy is, historically ... not. He has a plan, he tends to stick with it. Meanwhile, one thing you saw from Philly in both their playoff games is that, the run game in particular, adjusted as the game went on. To me, this is an advantage Philly.
Second, this is very likely Jason Kelce's final game in the league. Kelce had to be coaxed out of retirement by Sirianni this year, I don't think that happens again, especially since Kelce helped the Birds draft his replacement this season. Kelce is pretty much the heart of this team. He's definitely the heart of that OL. He's going to the HOF. I very much expect not only for him to have a great game here, but for the entire OL to step up knowing this will be the last time they're together like this.
Secondarily, this may well be Fletcher Cox's last game and will quite likely be Brandon Graham's last game as an Eagle. Graham says he wants to play a couple more years, but his contract is up and it's about time for Cox. Both of these guys will probably have their name put up in the Linc. Again, I know everybody wants to win the SB, I get it. But when you suspect—or know—this is it, it's just a little different. Not to mention, the Eagles' depth on the DL is something we might not see again for some time. Suh took like a league minimum contract to be there. Robert Quinn was second in the the league in sacks last year and we don't even talk about him because he's now in this rotation of like 12 dudes who've generated a league leading 9,672 sacks or whatever they've had this year.
Last, again, injuries. People say the Eagles had the easiest road to the SB, and in a way they're right. Although they did just put up 31 on the best defense in the entire league so ... But the biggest thing about both the Birds' playoff games is they got out of them healthy. In fact, they got to rest some guys late in the game. The Eagles have essentially three guys with injuries, all of whom will play. Hurts, which we covered, but who will probably be somewhere between 90%-95% on Sunday and who has proven his legs are fine and he can still throw deep with the shoulder. Maddox who I mentioned above and who I expect to play and play at a pretty high level if his performance vs. SF is any indication. And Landon Dickerson on the OL who hyper-extened his elbow last week. Not a great injury, but all indications are he'll wear a brace on the arm and play, because NFL offensive linemen are just built different than you and me. Anyway, this may hurt his hands a bit, but not his feet.
Meanwhile, KC is not healthy. Sneed may come back from that concussion in the secondary, but they're not 100% on offense, not even close. Again, advantage Philly, imo.
The total
I said I'd mention the total and the only reason I am not heavy on the over in this game is because I believe the Birds will succeed running the ball. I do have some of of the over (I got it at 49 -120 because that number is lower than it should be and I expect this game to close around 51.5/52). But there is a scenario in which the Eagles win this game like 23-17 basically because they run for 170 yards and have a 2/1 edge in TOP. My plan with the over is probably to try to middle/side it, if it does close at 52.
The score
For all of the reasons above, I have the Eagles somewhere between 24-34 points, KC somewhere between 17-27. My gut tells me this game ends up right around 31/27-24/23/20.
I was able to get Philly ML -120 here in town and I took it. I do think if the injury reports come out bad for KC later this week that you may get this back down to a PK, but even then that might be shaded to Philly, say PK or -.5 at -115. I'm not really sure we ever get to say Eagles +105 or even EV outside of in-game unless there's just a flood of public money on KC the morning of. So I took it now because I feel like that price difference only moves like $.10 for me and if some of these WRs for KC barely practice next week that it might bump back up to -130/-140.
Props
Hurts/Mahomes for MVP +120
Depending on who you like in the game, I think you have to look at this as well. First of all, if KC wins, as I've said, I think they win by outscoring the Birds. If that happens, Mahomes is your MVP. Also, really, if KC wins, so long as Mahomes doesn't have three turnovers, I think he wins MVP. I guess Kelce, maybe. But if Kelce has two TDs how is Mahomes not winning MVP? Also, the story of overcoming the ankle is too impossible to resist. On the other side, if the Eagles win, I think it's going to be hard not to give it to Hurts again unless he has multiple turnovers. Or unless someone like Sanders has three TDs on the ground or Reddick has three sacks, 10 tackles, and a turnover. Thing is, the Birds run by committee. It's going to be really difficult for one guy to get over 100 yards on his own. What's far more likely is Jalen having a line like 260 yards, one TD running, one throwing. Anyway, I think the price makes this worth it given the respective MLs right now depending on your game preference.
Travis Kelce any time TD -130
I have seen this as high as -160, but if you can get it under -140 I think it's worth it. This prop has mostly been money for like two months. He's missed a game or two here and there, but not many. And so long as they get into the red zone, Mahomes is going to give him at least one shot to get you this.
Either FG kicker over 1.5 FGs
Both Butker and Elliot have roughly the same price and to me this correlates with who you like to win the game. If you like KC to win the game, I think you take Elliot over 1.5 and vice versa. I think that the team that doesn't win this game is the one that has to settle for more FGs than TDs and both of these numbers are low. But this is also why I would take an individual over the collective over 5.5. Because I think there's very easily a scenario where one of these guys has three and the one on the winning team only has one. Same for total kicker points. The Eagles could put up 31 and that only leaves Elliot with 7 points. Not to mention, It would not shock me at all to see Philly go for two in this game.
AJ Brown any time TD +140
This is kind of a price play. He's been held in check in the previous two games. I am not convinced that lasts forever. Brown is a big time player. This is the biggest stage, he will be getting matched up against rookies. For plus-money I'll take the shot.
Eagles to win time of possession -145
Not super crazy about the price, but I genuinely believe the Birds run the ball a ton this game, so I'll play this small.
KC team total under 24.5
As I said, I feel like they're good for somewhere between 17 and 27 this game. 25 and 26 are mostly dead numbers, so I'll take this small too.
I would also look at the over on any Gainwell rushing + receiving prop. Playoff Kenny is a real thing. My guess is they feed him more than expected this week.
I'm also going to play the alternate total of Birds -6.5 because it's under a TD and at +200. If things go well for this team, KC may get stuck at 13/17/20 and Philly may hit 30.
Anyway, that's it for me. I know this was super long, but for real, you had an entire week to get through it. Also, if we win, @emkee has promised to go to the parade in full Mummers gear. Which I think we can all agree we, as a country, need right now.
Good luck, never pull BAR's finger when he asks you to, no, that is not Steed's bankroll in his pocket and yes he is happy to see you. Hey, he's a friendly guy, no matter what they say on the internet.
GO BIRDS.
Maybe I should also say, yes, I have been on the Birds the last two weeks. I teased the Giants game mainly because it was the third time they'd played them. And last week there was no way you were going to convince me to lay off when you were sending a rookie QB—a rookie QB who had arguably not even started road game in a single difficult environment yet in the NFL—into Philly for the NFC Championship. Like sending the Giants in there on short rest for a night game, this spot was shitty for SF. Anyway, onward to this week.
Let's take in-game injury off the table for both teams. Yes, Mahomes could really aggravate the ankle or whatever, but let's assume the teams stay as they are because you can't cap that kind of unfortunateness. Looking at these teams right now, I feel like there are two ways KC wins.
Scenario One: Patrick Mahomes has a monster game, Chiefs win 38-24
Look, if Patrick Mahomes is going to throw for four TDs and run for another, you're going to lose. He's arguably the best QB in the league, and if he can have a day, you just have to take the loss because there's nothing you could have to cap the game differently.
Scenario Two: Jalen Hurts melts down, Chiefs win 34-20
The other way I think KC can get here is if the moment really does prove too big for Jalen. I think of the Jacksonville game earlier in the year where Jax goes down and scores, then Jalen immediately gives them the ball back on a tipped-ball INT, and suddenly it's 14-0. That's one thing when you're at home, in the middle of the season, vs. an out of conference opponent—a team that at the time was, I believe under .500. But if you go down early like that in the SB, and you rattle Hurts, who's to say he doesn't start to press. At which point, you're probably getting more turnovers, or at least really short fields, and then KC is just going to out-score you.
I bring these two scenarios up in part to say, if you like KC, I really believe it correlates to the over. KC's running game, against this defense, isn't going to control the clock. If they win, KC is going to win through the air. And that may be done with eight yard passes to Kelce all day, but that's still going to get you points. Ditto if the Eagles fall apart. So, were I playing KC, I'd probably tie it to the over.
Speaking of which, I also have some of the over, but I'll get to that further down.
How do the Birds win on offense
So, if that's how I see KC winning, how likely do we think those scenarios are? Well, the first one totally could happen at any time, but you can't really bank on it happening or not so I feel like you kind of just have to let it go and if it does happen, be happy you got the easy winner if you're on it, etc. The second though ... I'd be lying if I said their wasn't a chance.
One thing a lot of Eagles fans may not admit to about the NFC Championship is that the entire passing game didn't look all that great to start the game. Hurts himself didn't look super great, he overthrew what should have been an easy, huge completion to AJB. But you also had drops of balls that were well thrown. Credit where it's due, you also had some really good plays by SF corners. Point is, Hurts melting down could happen.
So, if you're the Eagles, what are you doing to maximize what you do best while also limiting the chances of either of those two KC win scenarios from happening. The answer: You keep Mahomes off the field as much as you can—and you take as much pressure off Hurts when you have the ball as possible. Obviously, you run the football.
If you're looking for a TL;DR version of why I'm on the Birds here other than because I'm a Birds fan, it's this. Right now, the Eagles have the most dominant OL in the game. The Chiefs have a decent, but not great run defense. You're going to give me the team with the better OL/DL, and the better running game, at essentially a PK?
Think about this, KC hasn't faced a quality run offense in like two months. Cincy is pretty balanced, but they beat you because they have arguably the best WR corps in the league. No offense to Joe Mixon, but the Bengals' passing game is so terrifying, it opens up room for the run. Jax can run the ball, but in that game the Jags were down so early they had to pass. Before that you've got Denver who lost their best back like three games into the season and was working with an injured OL. The Raiders have a solid run game, but the last time KC played them, the Raiders were starting Jarrett Stidham under center. Of course you line up 10 in the box to stop Jacobs and dare that dude to beat you through the air (turns out, Jarrett Stidham did not, in fact, beat them through the air).
Bottom line, the Eagles are going to run this football and test that KC run defense in ways it hasn't been tested in months. Don't get me wrong, I am absolutely certain Philly will take their shots. It's how Sirianni has coached them all year, and the call on 4th and 3 that turned into the Smith catch-that-wasn't-a catch last week proves that. But I am positive the Eagles are confident they can run the ball on this KC defense. That they will use that to control the clock, keep Mahomes off the field, and let that open up the passing game.
The problem I see for KC is ... I don't really see how they stop that. Is Jalen 100%? No, but it's his shoulder, not his legs and the Birds run a ton of RPO stuff. This is why you had plays vs. SF where arguably the best part of the best defense in the league—the middle of it—was frozen in their tracks. Because even Fred Warner gets stuck trying to figure out the Philly RPO. If Philly can do it to SF, they're going to be able to do it to KC. And don't just believe me about Philly/SF, when KC goes up against someone like Josh Allen who also runs a ton of RPO stuff, Allen consistently moves up and down the field on them. Go back in the season and look at KC vs. Tennessee. Malik WIllis ran for 40 while Derek Henry went for 110+. And that's Malik Willis who hasn't yet proven he can beat anyone through the air, let alone that Tenny has the weapons in the passing game to do it. Meanwhile, Hurts has a ton of tape on being able to throw deep, and even if you don't think he can get it there right now because of his shoulder, what are you going to do, not cover AJB and Devonta Smith? Do you want to gamble that Quez Watkins 40+ yards downfield won't see the ball if you just let him run?
Here's the other problem, KC's defense at the back is not great. They are starting a ton of really young guys. And, again, credit where it's due, this secondary played well vs. a great Cincy WR corps. But now Philly has two weeks to prepare for this secondary, with two great WRs and a really good TE. KC's defense is better than it's been in years past, but that really only puts it in the middle of the league. KC is 17th in opponent's first downs per game, 19th in allowing third down conversions, 21st in opponent plays per game. The best this defense gets to in meaningful stats is like 8th. Meanwhile, Philly just ran for 148 on the best D in the league. Bottom line, you're asking a lot from this KC defense in this game. A LOT.
How does Philly win on defense
One way I can argue that Mahomes does have a big day, oddly, is because the Philly defense is so good. Right now, Philly is like 5(?) sacks away from setting like a single season record or something. It's nuts. But here's the problem. I believe Peter King mentioned this factoid early in the week, Mahomes is one of those rare QBs who is actually better the less time you give him. When you speed up his clock, he makes better decisions. This also makes sense if you think about how Mahomes succeeds. He doesn't do it by being a pocket passer. He does it by moving the pocket, getting out of the pocket, then letting guys like Kelce win when the defense breaks down. If the Eagles are too aggressive on defense trying to kill him and end the game in the first quarter, it could really open up some lanes for Mahomes to have a good day.
However, KC has a problem, well, a couple of problems here. First, Philly can get home without blitzing. You've already seen it, but beyond guys like Cox and Graham, Hasson Reddick is on a mission. That should allow the Birds to keep Mahomes mostly in the pocket. That's not where he's at his best. Second, Mahomes isn't 100%. Now, I fully believe he was at like 75%-80% vs. Cincy and that he will be at about 90% in the SB. And Mahomes at 90% is still better than probably 90% of the QBs in the league. However, unlike Hurts' injury, Mahomes ankle directly impacts the one thing that makes him so dangerous, his mobility. So you have a defense that should be able to limit his mobility, without excessively blitzing, forcing him into doing what he's least effective at.
But then, you have what I believe might even be a bigger problem. Basically KC's entire WR corps isn't 100% either. Hardman wouldn't have played this weekend. My guess is he's either out or extremely limited for the SB. Ju-Ju has a knee issue. Tony has an ankle injury (maybe also a hamstring?). None of those three have practiced this week.
Now, again, I expect all of them (save maybe Hardman) to play. But they're all dealing with things that will make them slower. That's a problem.
Meanwhile, the Eagles have exactly one injury on defense, CB Avonte Maddox who's got like a turf toe thing and was in a boot this week. However, Maddox played last weekend and by all indications, the boot was precautionary and he will play in the SB.
So, on one side of the ball, you have an offense that is limited by injury. On the other, you have the second best defense in the league, essentially completely healthy. And the ML is affordable.
Some intangibles
I am not going to tell you KC doesn't need this game. Or that Andy Reid with two weeks to prepare is anything but really good. But a couple of things to remember here. First, on Andy Reid. All Birds fans love Big Red (to varying degrees). But one thing he doesn't do—and this is the reason I was happier about the Birds facing this KC team than Cincy—is that Andy doesn't really adjust all that much at halftime. If Cincy is the best at it in the league, Andy is, historically ... not. He has a plan, he tends to stick with it. Meanwhile, one thing you saw from Philly in both their playoff games is that, the run game in particular, adjusted as the game went on. To me, this is an advantage Philly.
Second, this is very likely Jason Kelce's final game in the league. Kelce had to be coaxed out of retirement by Sirianni this year, I don't think that happens again, especially since Kelce helped the Birds draft his replacement this season. Kelce is pretty much the heart of this team. He's definitely the heart of that OL. He's going to the HOF. I very much expect not only for him to have a great game here, but for the entire OL to step up knowing this will be the last time they're together like this.
Secondarily, this may well be Fletcher Cox's last game and will quite likely be Brandon Graham's last game as an Eagle. Graham says he wants to play a couple more years, but his contract is up and it's about time for Cox. Both of these guys will probably have their name put up in the Linc. Again, I know everybody wants to win the SB, I get it. But when you suspect—or know—this is it, it's just a little different. Not to mention, the Eagles' depth on the DL is something we might not see again for some time. Suh took like a league minimum contract to be there. Robert Quinn was second in the the league in sacks last year and we don't even talk about him because he's now in this rotation of like 12 dudes who've generated a league leading 9,672 sacks or whatever they've had this year.
Last, again, injuries. People say the Eagles had the easiest road to the SB, and in a way they're right. Although they did just put up 31 on the best defense in the entire league so ... But the biggest thing about both the Birds' playoff games is they got out of them healthy. In fact, they got to rest some guys late in the game. The Eagles have essentially three guys with injuries, all of whom will play. Hurts, which we covered, but who will probably be somewhere between 90%-95% on Sunday and who has proven his legs are fine and he can still throw deep with the shoulder. Maddox who I mentioned above and who I expect to play and play at a pretty high level if his performance vs. SF is any indication. And Landon Dickerson on the OL who hyper-extened his elbow last week. Not a great injury, but all indications are he'll wear a brace on the arm and play, because NFL offensive linemen are just built different than you and me. Anyway, this may hurt his hands a bit, but not his feet.
Meanwhile, KC is not healthy. Sneed may come back from that concussion in the secondary, but they're not 100% on offense, not even close. Again, advantage Philly, imo.
The total
I said I'd mention the total and the only reason I am not heavy on the over in this game is because I believe the Birds will succeed running the ball. I do have some of of the over (I got it at 49 -120 because that number is lower than it should be and I expect this game to close around 51.5/52). But there is a scenario in which the Eagles win this game like 23-17 basically because they run for 170 yards and have a 2/1 edge in TOP. My plan with the over is probably to try to middle/side it, if it does close at 52.
The score
For all of the reasons above, I have the Eagles somewhere between 24-34 points, KC somewhere between 17-27. My gut tells me this game ends up right around 31/27-24/23/20.
I was able to get Philly ML -120 here in town and I took it. I do think if the injury reports come out bad for KC later this week that you may get this back down to a PK, but even then that might be shaded to Philly, say PK or -.5 at -115. I'm not really sure we ever get to say Eagles +105 or even EV outside of in-game unless there's just a flood of public money on KC the morning of. So I took it now because I feel like that price difference only moves like $.10 for me and if some of these WRs for KC barely practice next week that it might bump back up to -130/-140.
Props
Hurts/Mahomes for MVP +120
Depending on who you like in the game, I think you have to look at this as well. First of all, if KC wins, as I've said, I think they win by outscoring the Birds. If that happens, Mahomes is your MVP. Also, really, if KC wins, so long as Mahomes doesn't have three turnovers, I think he wins MVP. I guess Kelce, maybe. But if Kelce has two TDs how is Mahomes not winning MVP? Also, the story of overcoming the ankle is too impossible to resist. On the other side, if the Eagles win, I think it's going to be hard not to give it to Hurts again unless he has multiple turnovers. Or unless someone like Sanders has three TDs on the ground or Reddick has three sacks, 10 tackles, and a turnover. Thing is, the Birds run by committee. It's going to be really difficult for one guy to get over 100 yards on his own. What's far more likely is Jalen having a line like 260 yards, one TD running, one throwing. Anyway, I think the price makes this worth it given the respective MLs right now depending on your game preference.
Travis Kelce any time TD -130
I have seen this as high as -160, but if you can get it under -140 I think it's worth it. This prop has mostly been money for like two months. He's missed a game or two here and there, but not many. And so long as they get into the red zone, Mahomes is going to give him at least one shot to get you this.
Either FG kicker over 1.5 FGs
Both Butker and Elliot have roughly the same price and to me this correlates with who you like to win the game. If you like KC to win the game, I think you take Elliot over 1.5 and vice versa. I think that the team that doesn't win this game is the one that has to settle for more FGs than TDs and both of these numbers are low. But this is also why I would take an individual over the collective over 5.5. Because I think there's very easily a scenario where one of these guys has three and the one on the winning team only has one. Same for total kicker points. The Eagles could put up 31 and that only leaves Elliot with 7 points. Not to mention, It would not shock me at all to see Philly go for two in this game.
AJ Brown any time TD +140
This is kind of a price play. He's been held in check in the previous two games. I am not convinced that lasts forever. Brown is a big time player. This is the biggest stage, he will be getting matched up against rookies. For plus-money I'll take the shot.
Eagles to win time of possession -145
Not super crazy about the price, but I genuinely believe the Birds run the ball a ton this game, so I'll play this small.
KC team total under 24.5
As I said, I feel like they're good for somewhere between 17 and 27 this game. 25 and 26 are mostly dead numbers, so I'll take this small too.
I would also look at the over on any Gainwell rushing + receiving prop. Playoff Kenny is a real thing. My guess is they feed him more than expected this week.
I'm also going to play the alternate total of Birds -6.5 because it's under a TD and at +200. If things go well for this team, KC may get stuck at 13/17/20 and Philly may hit 30.
Anyway, that's it for me. I know this was super long, but for real, you had an entire week to get through it. Also, if we win, @emkee has promised to go to the parade in full Mummers gear. Which I think we can all agree we, as a country, need right now.
Good luck, never pull BAR's finger when he asks you to, no, that is not Steed's bankroll in his pocket and yes he is happy to see you. Hey, he's a friendly guy, no matter what they say on the internet.
GO BIRDS.
