Last Chance Value Picks for Betting Bills vs. Patriots
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Monday, December 27, 2020 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC) at Gilette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts
Stefon Diggs
Over/Under 85.5 Receiving Yards
Over/Under 6.5 Receptions
The First Meeting
When Buffalo and New England met on November 1, Buffalo receiver Stefon Diggs accrued six receptions and 92 yards in a game where the weather forced both teams to emphasize running the ball.
It’s true that Diggs obtained close to half of that yardage total on a single play. People may pursue this kind of reasoning — that a large portion of a player’s yardage total came on a single play should indicate that that player’s overall yardage total was a fluke — in order to qualify Diggs’ performance.
But the fact is that Diggs consistently gets big plays, makes 20-yard receptions on a game-to-game basis.
Metrics show that Diggs is targeted on a high number of deep passes. When those or shorter pass attempts are contested, he’s great at coming down with the ball.
So Diggs can accrue a lot of yards in a short amount of time.
No Stephon Gilmore
New England’s top cornerback Stephon Gilmore is on Injured Reserve. So he will not play tonight. His absence creates a huge break for Diggs, who ranks top three in both receptions and yards even though he regularly faces opposing top cornerbacks.
Gilmore regularly faces the opponent’s top wide receiver. Despite being well-tested, he is allowing a 57.1 percent completion rate and 75.7 passer rating when targeted. So New England’s pass defense will really miss Gilmore because he is uniquely good. New England owes its pass defense ranking largely to Gilmore.
J.C. Jackson
New England’s next top cornerback in J.C. Jackson. He will presumably spend the most time trying to cover Diggs.
Now, Jackson does have some good numbers. But he doesn’t typically face the quality of competition that Gilmore does.
For example, when New England faced Kansas City, Jackson didn’t spend time covering Tyreek Hill. Instead, his assignment was the lesser Sammy Watkins.
When Jackson does face higher-level wide receivers, he tends to struggle.
For example, he gave up eight receptions and 127 yards to Houston’s Will Fuller.
Trends
Even though Buffalo has been winning games by comfortable margins, Diggs is still seeing a lot of action in a persistently pass-heavy offense.
Diggs has been targeted at least 10 times in each of his team’s last three games.
He’s also caught at least 10 passes for over 90 yards in each of those games.
The Verdict
Diggs’ hot form, the improved weather, and his match-up with Jackson should encourage you to invest in Diggs.
Best Bets: Over 85.5 Receiving Yards at -114 & Over 6.5 Receptions at -156 with BetOnline
Parlay: Josh Allen to have 275 Passing Yards, 2+ Passing Touchdowns, and Buffalo to Win
Josh Allen
275 yards and two touchdowns are not a lot for Allen to accrue. These yardage and touchdown totals fall right below his season averages.
He fails to reach either total against a healthy top-level secondary or in a game with bad weather.
But New England does not own a top secondary without a healthy Gilmore.
When Gilmore was absent, Jet quarterback Joe Flacco achieved season highs for himself in passing yardage and passing touchdowns.
Likewise, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson took advantage of Gilmore’s absence to almost have season highs in both statistics.
Flacco and Lamar both passed for close to 275 yards and both amassed at least two passing touchdowns.
If Allen were to approach his season highs in both stats, he would throw for at least 400 yards and three touchdowns.
Since he is precise, comfortable in Buffalo’s spread formations, and stacked with high-quality targets at his disposal, he will easily eclipse 275 yards passing and two passing touchdowns.
Buffalo Will Win
If not for a meaningless, last-minute 49er touchdown, the Bills would have held each of their last four opponents to under 20 points.
Buffalo can easily add New England to this list of victims because the Patriots already own one of the NFL’s worst scoring offenses. They rank 27th in points per game as they regularly struggle to reach 20 points — they average 20.6 per game.
The Bills have strongly improved not just in scoring defense, but also in stats like sacks and turnovers per game.
With Cam Newton and a shaky quarterback situation, the Patriots are vulnerable to turning the ball over. They lack the offensive firepower, anyways, to keep pace with the Bills.
In case you’re wondering, Buffalo wants to win for seeding purposes, in order to ensure the possibility of having more home games for themselves in the playoffs.
Other Options
There are many other ways to use the above information for profit. To avoid the chalk, a similar good bet would be the following parlay: Allen to reach 300 passing yards and Buffalo to win at +125 with BetOnline. The list goes on.
Best Bet: Parlay at -132 with BetOnline
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Monday, December 27, 2020 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC) at Gilette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts
Stefon Diggs
Over/Under 85.5 Receiving Yards
Over/Under 6.5 Receptions
The First Meeting
When Buffalo and New England met on November 1, Buffalo receiver Stefon Diggs accrued six receptions and 92 yards in a game where the weather forced both teams to emphasize running the ball.
It’s true that Diggs obtained close to half of that yardage total on a single play. People may pursue this kind of reasoning — that a large portion of a player’s yardage total came on a single play should indicate that that player’s overall yardage total was a fluke — in order to qualify Diggs’ performance.
But the fact is that Diggs consistently gets big plays, makes 20-yard receptions on a game-to-game basis.
Metrics show that Diggs is targeted on a high number of deep passes. When those or shorter pass attempts are contested, he’s great at coming down with the ball.
So Diggs can accrue a lot of yards in a short amount of time.
No Stephon Gilmore
New England’s top cornerback Stephon Gilmore is on Injured Reserve. So he will not play tonight. His absence creates a huge break for Diggs, who ranks top three in both receptions and yards even though he regularly faces opposing top cornerbacks.
Gilmore regularly faces the opponent’s top wide receiver. Despite being well-tested, he is allowing a 57.1 percent completion rate and 75.7 passer rating when targeted. So New England’s pass defense will really miss Gilmore because he is uniquely good. New England owes its pass defense ranking largely to Gilmore.
J.C. Jackson
New England’s next top cornerback in J.C. Jackson. He will presumably spend the most time trying to cover Diggs.
Now, Jackson does have some good numbers. But he doesn’t typically face the quality of competition that Gilmore does.
For example, when New England faced Kansas City, Jackson didn’t spend time covering Tyreek Hill. Instead, his assignment was the lesser Sammy Watkins.
When Jackson does face higher-level wide receivers, he tends to struggle.
For example, he gave up eight receptions and 127 yards to Houston’s Will Fuller.
Trends
Even though Buffalo has been winning games by comfortable margins, Diggs is still seeing a lot of action in a persistently pass-heavy offense.
Diggs has been targeted at least 10 times in each of his team’s last three games.
He’s also caught at least 10 passes for over 90 yards in each of those games.
The Verdict
Diggs’ hot form, the improved weather, and his match-up with Jackson should encourage you to invest in Diggs.
Best Bets: Over 85.5 Receiving Yards at -114 & Over 6.5 Receptions at -156 with BetOnline
Parlay: Josh Allen to have 275 Passing Yards, 2+ Passing Touchdowns, and Buffalo to Win
Josh Allen
275 yards and two touchdowns are not a lot for Allen to accrue. These yardage and touchdown totals fall right below his season averages.
He fails to reach either total against a healthy top-level secondary or in a game with bad weather.
But New England does not own a top secondary without a healthy Gilmore.
When Gilmore was absent, Jet quarterback Joe Flacco achieved season highs for himself in passing yardage and passing touchdowns.
Likewise, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson took advantage of Gilmore’s absence to almost have season highs in both statistics.
Flacco and Lamar both passed for close to 275 yards and both amassed at least two passing touchdowns.
If Allen were to approach his season highs in both stats, he would throw for at least 400 yards and three touchdowns.
Since he is precise, comfortable in Buffalo’s spread formations, and stacked with high-quality targets at his disposal, he will easily eclipse 275 yards passing and two passing touchdowns.
Buffalo Will Win
If not for a meaningless, last-minute 49er touchdown, the Bills would have held each of their last four opponents to under 20 points.
Buffalo can easily add New England to this list of victims because the Patriots already own one of the NFL’s worst scoring offenses. They rank 27th in points per game as they regularly struggle to reach 20 points — they average 20.6 per game.
The Bills have strongly improved not just in scoring defense, but also in stats like sacks and turnovers per game.
With Cam Newton and a shaky quarterback situation, the Patriots are vulnerable to turning the ball over. They lack the offensive firepower, anyways, to keep pace with the Bills.
In case you’re wondering, Buffalo wants to win for seeding purposes, in order to ensure the possibility of having more home games for themselves in the playoffs.
Other Options
There are many other ways to use the above information for profit. To avoid the chalk, a similar good bet would be the following parlay: Allen to reach 300 passing yards and Buffalo to win at +125 with BetOnline. The list goes on.
Best Bet: Parlay at -132 with BetOnline
