Bills vs. Chiefs AFC Championship Game Betting Preview
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 6:30 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium
Underdog Buffalo
Buffalo is a great underdog because it just proved last week that it can beat anybody.
Folks talk about the disparity, which I find unsustainable, between Buffalo's track record against Kansas City in the regular season versus in the playoffs.
But if the Bills are unreliable as a playoff team, then how could they beat, in the postseason, a Baltimore team last week that decimated them in the regular season?
Buffalo just defeated what is arguably the strongest team: Baltimore's offense was, with its MVP-caliber quarterback and high-caliber rush attack, one of the NFL's two best (along with Detroit); Baltimore's defense had also improved drastically, recently holding Houston, for example, to zero offensive points.
As evident in the regular season blowout win over the Bills, Baltimore had strong matchup advantages against them.
Buffalo's ability to defy those abilities make it a must-bet as an underdog.
Stated differently, the Bills are 2-0 against top seeds. Detroit and Kansas City, with its starters playing, lost a combined total of two games (including the postseason) against other teams than Buffalo.
Kansas City Is Very Beatable
The Chiefs are, as evident in DVOA and point differential, a historically bad number one seed.
In sum, their defense, which lost an elite cornerback in the offseason, isn't as great as it was last year. Their quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, has likewise been far from elite, as evident in various stats, such as passing yards and quarterback rating.
Kansas City has been most vulnerable against teams led by elite quarterbacks.
Baltimore lost to the Chiefs 27-20, but the game came down to half-of-a-toe in the end zone. The Ravens amassed 452 yards.
The Chiefs edged out Cincinnati, with its pathetic defense, 26-25 by a point because of how good the Bengals' elite quarterback Joe Burrow was.
Kansas City's other game against an elite quarterback was against a Buffalo team that won 30-21.
The underdog in Sunday's matchup, being a team that can beat anyone, is a must-bet against such a vulnerable team whose record is so inflated by an unsustainable tendency to achieve close wins.
In Josh Allen, Buffalo has the best quarterback in this matchup, as apparent when you account for his quarterback rating and rushing stats. With a much more productive rush attack and a deep group of pass-catchers, the Bills are stronger in the skill positions. Their offensive line, ranking fourth in pass-block win rate, is no worse than Kansas City's tackle-deficient one. They also have the eighth-best scoring defense.
Tight Ends
One more specific advantage that Buffalo has is with its tight ends.
The Bills beat Kansas City in the regular season despite not having one of its effective pass-catching tight ends.
But now both Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid are healthy.
They will thrive against a Kansas City defense that allowed the most yards to tight ends in the regular season.
Superior Rush Attack
Kansas City suffers from a deficient rush attack that ranks second-to-last in YPC.
Conversely, Buffalo was most recently able to amass 147 rushing yards on 4.1 YPC against Baltimore's run defense that, by a clear margin, ranks number one.
Buffalo will have an easier time running on the Chiefs than it did last week on Baltimore, although the Bills still managed to score 27 points.
In its most recent games, Kansas City has been vulnerable to opposing running backs, conceding high YPC averages to them, and it will also have to deal with Allen's legs, whose rushing productivity can easily exceed the damage that Pittsburgh's Russell Wilson lately wrought on the Chiefs as a runner — Wilson ran for a season-high 55 yards against them.
Avoiding Mistakes
To win, like they did last week, while being out-gained by over 100 yards, the Chiefs will need Buffalo's offense to make mistakes.
But Josh Allen has drastically reduced his interception total relative to recent years.
The great disparity between the number of his big-time plays and that of his turnover-worthy ones shows a quarterback who has matured into being an effective decision-maker who doesn't cost his team games.
Supported by a stronger rush attack, with James Cook and his 4.9 YPC, and a deeper cast of pass-catchers, Allen is able to be more careful, to be more effective, and to avoid depending too much on a single teammate.
Buffalo is not going to give this game to Kansas City.
Kansas City Lacks The Same Firepower
In regulation, Kansas City this season has scored 30 points once: against pathetic Carolina.
The Bills are the one team who is capable of achieving high scoring totals.
They could have also been more aggressive last week, instead letting the Ravens come back into the game and to manage 25 points.
I don't see Kansas City scoring as much as Baltimore did, because it lacks the productivity at both quarterback and running back.
Mahomes lacks the same comfort in the pocket, hindered as he is by his offensive line's tackle problem.
Edge rushers Greg Rousseau and Von Miller will inflict a lot of pressure on Mahomes, as they did in the regular season matchup.
When Mahomes tries to extend plays, Buffalo has a solution for Mahomes' favorite target, Travis Kelce, whom the Bills used especially linebacker Terrel Bernard to limit to two catches for eight yards.
Buffalo's ability to limit Kelce underscores the superior outlook of its pass-catchers in this game.
The Bills are able to defend those pass-catchers without blitzing much.
Whereas the Chiefs could rely on Tyreek Hill in previous years, they no longer have that dominant pass-catcher whom, like Detroit's Amon-Ra St. Brown and the Rams' Puka Nacua, Buffalo's defense can't stop.
Takeaway
Buffalo was decimated at the linebacker position in its narrow loss to Kansas City last year. Its offense also stalled when wide receiver Stefon Diggs stalled.
But now the Bills are so well-rounded, so cautious and productive on offense, and their defense is much healthier.
They are undefeated against top seeds, just beat Baltimore, and otherwise have proven to have the personnel to take down anybody.
Buffalo is a great underdog that is the only team in this matchup with the firepower to score over 30 points in a game.
Kansas City has struggled to beat teams led by elite quarterbacks, and Allen is not only elite, but he also has a much deeper supporting cast and a defense that will bother Mahomes in various ways.
Best Bet: Bills +2 at -110 with BetOnline; Bills over 23.5 points at -120 with Bovada; Josh Allen under 0.5 interceptions at -105 with Bovada; James Cook over 52.5 rushing yards at -115 with Bovada
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 6:30 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium
Underdog Buffalo
Buffalo is a great underdog because it just proved last week that it can beat anybody.
Folks talk about the disparity, which I find unsustainable, between Buffalo's track record against Kansas City in the regular season versus in the playoffs.
But if the Bills are unreliable as a playoff team, then how could they beat, in the postseason, a Baltimore team last week that decimated them in the regular season?
Buffalo just defeated what is arguably the strongest team: Baltimore's offense was, with its MVP-caliber quarterback and high-caliber rush attack, one of the NFL's two best (along with Detroit); Baltimore's defense had also improved drastically, recently holding Houston, for example, to zero offensive points.
As evident in the regular season blowout win over the Bills, Baltimore had strong matchup advantages against them.
Buffalo's ability to defy those abilities make it a must-bet as an underdog.
Stated differently, the Bills are 2-0 against top seeds. Detroit and Kansas City, with its starters playing, lost a combined total of two games (including the postseason) against other teams than Buffalo.
Kansas City Is Very Beatable
The Chiefs are, as evident in DVOA and point differential, a historically bad number one seed.
In sum, their defense, which lost an elite cornerback in the offseason, isn't as great as it was last year. Their quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, has likewise been far from elite, as evident in various stats, such as passing yards and quarterback rating.
Kansas City has been most vulnerable against teams led by elite quarterbacks.
Baltimore lost to the Chiefs 27-20, but the game came down to half-of-a-toe in the end zone. The Ravens amassed 452 yards.
The Chiefs edged out Cincinnati, with its pathetic defense, 26-25 by a point because of how good the Bengals' elite quarterback Joe Burrow was.
Kansas City's other game against an elite quarterback was against a Buffalo team that won 30-21.
The underdog in Sunday's matchup, being a team that can beat anyone, is a must-bet against such a vulnerable team whose record is so inflated by an unsustainable tendency to achieve close wins.
In Josh Allen, Buffalo has the best quarterback in this matchup, as apparent when you account for his quarterback rating and rushing stats. With a much more productive rush attack and a deep group of pass-catchers, the Bills are stronger in the skill positions. Their offensive line, ranking fourth in pass-block win rate, is no worse than Kansas City's tackle-deficient one. They also have the eighth-best scoring defense.
Tight Ends
One more specific advantage that Buffalo has is with its tight ends.
The Bills beat Kansas City in the regular season despite not having one of its effective pass-catching tight ends.
But now both Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid are healthy.
They will thrive against a Kansas City defense that allowed the most yards to tight ends in the regular season.
Superior Rush Attack
Kansas City suffers from a deficient rush attack that ranks second-to-last in YPC.
Conversely, Buffalo was most recently able to amass 147 rushing yards on 4.1 YPC against Baltimore's run defense that, by a clear margin, ranks number one.
Buffalo will have an easier time running on the Chiefs than it did last week on Baltimore, although the Bills still managed to score 27 points.
In its most recent games, Kansas City has been vulnerable to opposing running backs, conceding high YPC averages to them, and it will also have to deal with Allen's legs, whose rushing productivity can easily exceed the damage that Pittsburgh's Russell Wilson lately wrought on the Chiefs as a runner — Wilson ran for a season-high 55 yards against them.
Avoiding Mistakes
To win, like they did last week, while being out-gained by over 100 yards, the Chiefs will need Buffalo's offense to make mistakes.
But Josh Allen has drastically reduced his interception total relative to recent years.
The great disparity between the number of his big-time plays and that of his turnover-worthy ones shows a quarterback who has matured into being an effective decision-maker who doesn't cost his team games.
Supported by a stronger rush attack, with James Cook and his 4.9 YPC, and a deeper cast of pass-catchers, Allen is able to be more careful, to be more effective, and to avoid depending too much on a single teammate.
Buffalo is not going to give this game to Kansas City.
Kansas City Lacks The Same Firepower
In regulation, Kansas City this season has scored 30 points once: against pathetic Carolina.
The Bills are the one team who is capable of achieving high scoring totals.
They could have also been more aggressive last week, instead letting the Ravens come back into the game and to manage 25 points.
I don't see Kansas City scoring as much as Baltimore did, because it lacks the productivity at both quarterback and running back.
Mahomes lacks the same comfort in the pocket, hindered as he is by his offensive line's tackle problem.
Edge rushers Greg Rousseau and Von Miller will inflict a lot of pressure on Mahomes, as they did in the regular season matchup.
When Mahomes tries to extend plays, Buffalo has a solution for Mahomes' favorite target, Travis Kelce, whom the Bills used especially linebacker Terrel Bernard to limit to two catches for eight yards.
Buffalo's ability to limit Kelce underscores the superior outlook of its pass-catchers in this game.
The Bills are able to defend those pass-catchers without blitzing much.
Whereas the Chiefs could rely on Tyreek Hill in previous years, they no longer have that dominant pass-catcher whom, like Detroit's Amon-Ra St. Brown and the Rams' Puka Nacua, Buffalo's defense can't stop.
Takeaway
Buffalo was decimated at the linebacker position in its narrow loss to Kansas City last year. Its offense also stalled when wide receiver Stefon Diggs stalled.
But now the Bills are so well-rounded, so cautious and productive on offense, and their defense is much healthier.
They are undefeated against top seeds, just beat Baltimore, and otherwise have proven to have the personnel to take down anybody.
Buffalo is a great underdog that is the only team in this matchup with the firepower to score over 30 points in a game.
Kansas City has struggled to beat teams led by elite quarterbacks, and Allen is not only elite, but he also has a much deeper supporting cast and a defense that will bother Mahomes in various ways.
Best Bet: Bills +2 at -110 with BetOnline; Bills over 23.5 points at -120 with Bovada; Josh Allen under 0.5 interceptions at -105 with Bovada; James Cook over 52.5 rushing yards at -115 with Bovada
